Download Climate Change Adaptation Position Paper

Climate Change Adaptation Position Paper
Assessing the impact on rail infrastructure
Rail
Providing Solutions Today
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................... 2
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 3
About this report ............................................................................................................ 7
1. Why is adaptation planning important for rail ........................................................ 8
Climate change variables and rail infrastructure planning ...................................................... 9
Rail in Australia ...................................................................................................................... 10
Longevity of rail infrastructure .............................................................................................. 11
Cost of mistakes ..................................................................................................................... 11
Continuity and cost-benefit ................................................................................................... 11
2. Climate change: Getting the basics right............................................................... 13
3. Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning .............................................. 18
Climate modelling and scenarios ........................................................................................... 18
Climate change data in Australia ........................................................................................... 19
Climate variables ................................................................................................................... 22
How Australia’s climate will change ...................................................................................... 24
4. Further actions....................................................................................................... 32
References .................................................................................................................... 38
Appendix A – Detailed risks .......................................................................................... 40
Appendix B – Useful reference and data list ................................................................ 43
2
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Executive Summary
In December 2010 to January 2011, Queensland experienced some of the most destructive
extreme weather events in history. Extended periods of heavy rain caused massive flooding to
the South East and central Queensland. 35 people were killed. 200,000 people and over 70
towns were affected. Reconstruction costs have been estimated at $10bn1. Reconstruction
costs for the rail industry are estimated to be approximately $1bn.
There is some debate as to whether recent events such as the Queensland floods, Cyclone Yasi,
the 2009 Victorian heatwaves are a result of global warming. The policy and regulatory
landscape governing issues relating to climatic events are ever changing. New Australian
standards are being developed, the International Panel on Climate Change will provide updated
analysis on climate change in 2014, and the Productivity Commission
However the global scientific community is clear that climate change will impact extreme
weather events and for a large part of Australia, these events will become more severe2.
Warming and associated climatic changes will have serious consequences for Australia. Given
our coastal populations and fragile water and agricultural resources, the CSIRO believes
Australia to be one of the most vulnerable developed countries to climate changes. The primary
climatic change events include:

Increased average temperatures and increased numbers of extreme heat events;

Increased incidence of extreme precipitation and drought events;

Rising sea levels;

Changing humidity patterns; and

Increased incidence of weather events such as high winds.
These events will lead to greater flooding, water resource insecurity, bushfires and natural
disasters.
For the rail industry, climatic changes will impact rail infrastructure. Whilst the severity of these
impacts is not currently understood, the types of impacts include:

Track failures (buckling, mechanical, electrical failure) due to more extreme
temperature days
1
2
IBISWorld, Queensland Floods: Economic Impact, January 2011.
CSIRO, Adaptation science - Opportunities and responses to climate change impacts
3
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.

Increased risk of flood and storm damage to track infrastructure

Sea level rise flooding coastal tracks, yards and other infrastructure

Wind damage to overhead lines

Track failure due to decreased soil stability and increased erosion

Increased bushfire damage risk
Other climate change impacts which will have an indirect impact on rail operations (which are
outside the scope of this report), include:

Reduced grain crop leading to reductions in rural services and revenue

Decrease in rainfall in southern Australia leading to increases in dust and sand drifts
affecting services

Higher temperatures leading to increase in heat stress for outdoor workers and
passengers

Higher temperatures leading to increased costs of air conditioning in stations and on
passenger services (both capital and operating costs) and possible power overloads and
failures on operational systems
Climate change impacts could have catastrophic effects on rail infrastructure in Australia.
Events previously assumed to be ‘one hundred year’ events may now be more frequent and
more damaging.
Adapting large-scale infrastructure such as rail, to climate change, is a formidable challenge. Rail
infrastructure is vast, has an extremely long useful life and decisions made now will have impact
on whether or not future generations will be granted the same level of mobility and supply
chain efficiencies we now experience. Future proofing Australia’s rail infrastructure requires
time and resources.
The rail industry, like most industries in Australia and across the world, does not have a strong
understanding of its vulnerability to climate change events. There is certainly no systemic
industry approach in identifying and assessing climate change risks.
This initial analysis is the first step in adaptation planning for the rail industry. To succeed in
future proofing critical infrastructure, the industry will need to drive a long-term programme of
activities aimed at mitigating a select group of important risks. To achieve success in adapting
rail ageing infrastructure to Australia’s likely future climate, the industry will need to undertake
some further activities.
4
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
This position paper includes recommendation on a structured framework and associated
guidance to promote good decision-making. This should enable the rail industry to recognise
and evaluate the risks posed by a changing climate, making the best use of available information
about climate change, its impacts and appropriate adaptive responses. The paper reviews
methods and techniques for climate risk assessment, and in particular gives guidance on the
appropriate use of climate change projections/forecasting and modelling. Using these methods
will be important in delivering adaptation responses that are successful in the face of an
uncertain future.
1. Agree to common baseline assumptions to be used as standard in the industry (subject to
change as climate data evolves and improves):
a. Climate scenario: Scenario to be used is A1F1 (see Section 2 for more details)
b. Variables to consider as a minimum:
i.
Extreme temperature events
ii.
Extreme rainfall events (flooding)
iii.
Sea level rise
iv.
Storm surge and storm tide
v.
Storms
vi.
Cyclones
vii.
Fire danger index (relative humidity and drought conditions)
c. Data sources (see It is suggested that the rail industry use the data prepared by the
CSIRO and BoM as presented in the Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report and
OzClim.
It is suggested that the rail industry also use the data prepared by the relevant State agencies.
Where the data differs should be highlighted and provides critical sensitivity analysis for the
projections.
Other national and state based guidelines and standards should also be referenced such as for
flooding projections essential input will be the Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff Report
when it is made available. See relevant state agencies for advice on the most recent guidance
material.
It should be noted that the availability of granular data varies significantly between sources, and
in many
d. Table 2 for more details):
5
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
i.
Climate change in Australia – Technical report 2007
ii.
OzClim
iii.
Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff (Revised version due 2014)
e. Minimum Risks to be analysed (see Table 10)
2. Industry to meet with key research organisations to confirm climate modelling data and
scenarios
3. Undertake organisational level risk assessments to determine key infrastructure vulnerability
to climate change and internally prioritise any adaptation actions
4. Collate industry wide comprehensive risk analysis of critical rail infrastructure
5. Form a working group comprised of industry and government to guide adaptation
prioritisation and a program of works to address critically important areas of rail
infrastructure
Future-proofing our rail infrastructure will be highly dependent on the involvement and
participation of key stakeholders. These include State and Commonwealth Governments,
climate scientists, research organisations, rail operators and customers. It will involve
embedding the concepts of adaptation and continuity into the planning, development,
maintenance and improvement programs of all the major rail infrastructure owners.
Climate change adaptation for Australia’s supporting infrastructure is a serious issue for both
industry and for government. Whilst the scale of the task is large, the risks associated with
inaction are considerable and potentially debilitating for some of Australia’s largest and most
profitable industries.
6
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
About this report
The Rail Industry in Australia is committed to sustainability and as such has commissioned this
position paper on climate change adaptation. The paper has been developed through industry
consultation with major rail operators and infrastructure owners. This paper has also been peer
reviewed by Manidis Roberts Consultants.
The purpose of this report is to analyse the Rail industry’s vulnerabilities to climate change and
how these vulnerabilities may be managed into the future. This report outlinesas to the key
climate risks to rail infrastructure based on current climate change information and provides the
industry and government with a high-level view on where those vulnerabilities are and what
impact they could have on the industry and the economy.
The report provides recommendations for stakeholders to address these risks, provides a
common reference point for the rail industry on climate change data and other tools to be used
in organisation-level vulnerability assessments and outlines some of the current approaches to
infrastructure analysis and climate change adaptation assessments.
A detailed view of specific risks to key infrastructure and the implications for adaptation has
not been performed as part of this report. To date, no rail infrastructure organisation has
completed a full climate change adaptation vulnerability / risk assessment on their network
(however a number of assessments are planned or underway). Queensland Rail have recently
undertaken a geographically limited review of climate change adaptation risks in south east
Queensland, while other rail operators are also considering similar reviews.
The purpose of this report is to promote a basic framework for the Rail Industry in dealing
with climate change adaptation risks. The industry should consider extending the adaptation
effort to include detailed cost-benefit analysis of adapting specific and integral rail
infrastructure to ensure operational continuance in the event of climate hazards occurring
(see chapter 4).
7
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
1. Why is adaptation planning important for rail
Adapting to future climate change is an important concept both on a national and global scale.
Both ecosystems and society will need to adapt to the new climatic conditions that global
warming will inevitably bring. Society will face significant challenges in adapting to global
warming. This is particularly true for those systems such as agriculture that are heavily
dependent on weather patterns. It also true for long-life infrastructure such as settlements or
cities and transport. Where a coal fired electricity plant may only have a effective life of 50-60
years, rail track well over 100 years old is still in operation in Australia and globally. Settlements
infrastructure such as sewage systems, bridges and buildings in many places around the world
are generations old. Assessing the risk of climate change on these assets and developing plans
to address these risks will become one of the most difficult challenges for both private sector
infrastructure owners and governments alike.
Adaptation to climate change in rail is important to both industry and government. Without
forward planning for adaption, the economy and the industry risk long delays in getting
important exports such as coal and iron ore to ports, major supply chain inefficiencies and
significant passenger disruption in large, population centres. Investment in climate change
adaptation should be considered a priority by both industry and government due to the
following reasons:

It is important to our economy: Rail transports more bulk iron ore and coal from mine to
port than any other mode of transport

Longevity: Rail infrastructure has an extremely long life where the full effects of climate
change will affect infrastructure already in place

Cost of mistakes: Getting the balance right between over-engineering and current
approaches is extremely important as cost implications for new works is significant

Industry suitability: There are only a small number of infrastructure owners and
stakeholders making the implementation of adaptation culture, technology and
processes less complex

Cost-benefit considerations: Rail has both public and private sector stakeholders. Where
public stakeholders are involved, the social benefits from adaptation will strengthen the
8
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
cost benefit cases, improving the viability of safeguarding some of our most important
national assets
Climate change variables and rail infrastructure planning
For existing infrastructure, the industry’s approach is largely reactive with a proactive
component drawing in previous incidents as a guide to future incidents. Each owner has a long
term maintenance program which includes both preventative maintenance and an ‘eventsdriven’ reactive maintenance process i.e. fixing faults, breakages etc. With regards to extreme
weather the general approach can be classified into the following three main courses of action.
Table 1 – Industry approach to extreme weather risk management
Event type
Description
Example
Repeat events
Infrastructure
is
affected
by
an
extreme event but
not damaged and
this causes a service
disruption
Fires
RailCorp’s
Coast line
Where a piece of
infrastructure
is
damaged during an
extreme
weather
event
Western Rail Line
(Queensland) near
Spring Bluff
Damaged
infrastructure
Action
causing
South
Water on track due
extreme
rainfall
events
Extreme
Event
Rainfal
Decision is made to either upgrade
infrastructure or leave infrastructure
unchanged. Decision will be mainly
based on the frequency of events
experience (not forecasts due to lack of
data), the loss incurred through lack of
service and the cost of the upgrades
Rebuild – decision to build to current
standards or to build to a new standard
intended to withstand extreme weather
event
25m deep landslide
destroying track
Anticipated
event
Where an extreme
event is anticipated
and actions are
taken
to
avoid
damage
Maintaining
fire
breaks and clear
areas
around
stations
Some decisions will be made in
anticipation of events. Managing bushfire
hazards are one example of this practice.
However in general, this is not adopted
for flooding, cyclones, heatwaves or
storms as they are much more difficult to
predict and the cost of upgrading is
considerably higher
Due to the relative infrequency of extreme weather events, rail infrastructure risk planning and
maintenance has been more reactionary than precautionary. Scientific evidence linking climate
9
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
change to increasingly severe weather events and a recent succession of unpredictably
destructive weather in Australia should provide a catalyst for this to change.
Rail in Australia
Australia’s economy relies heavily on our ability to leverage rail infrastructure, which accounts
for approximately 39% of the total freight task. Rail is of particular importance to transport of
bulk good such as coal and iron ore from the mine to the port where it is integral to almost all
export sales of these goods.
In our cities, 724.7 million passenger journeys were undertaken in 2008. Rail is an important
contributor to reducing congestion in our cities. A recent study by Deloitte Access Economics
estimated that each urban passenger journey would reduce congestion costs in our major cities
by between $2 and $7.
The North Coast line carries 11 million net tonnes of product annually, including containerised
freight, sugar, grain, minerals and cattle. In addition approximately 63% of Australia’s coal
exports are derived from Queensland mines, with 96% being exported from ports in cyclone
prone areas and being transported from the mine to the port via rail. More intense tropical
cyclones in this area of Australia, has the potential not only to impact the rail industry, but also
the mining industry. Black coal exports were worth approximately $43bn in 2010. It is the
second largest goods and services export in Australia.
Figure 1 – Coal exports by port (millions of tonnes, 09/10)
10
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Longevity of rail infrastructure
One of the major reasons why climate change is important to rail is that its infrastructure has an
extremely long life. Assets built today are required to operate for up to 100 years. According to
the analysis, the climate will change considerably in the next 100 years, and rail infrastructure
needs to account for that now.
One of the major difficulties with adapting rail infrastructure for climate change is the expected
life of these assets. In Australia we have rail track that is over 100 years old in some areas.
Flinders St Station which handles over 110,000 passengers per day, being the most used
metropolitan railway station in Australia was built in 1910.
Old track has been built to various standards as they evolved over a number of decades. The
track owners periodically maintain the track to current standards. No climate change
assumptions have been built into building standards to date. The predictions for climate change
include some significant increases in key variables over the next century with potential to
severely damage rail infrastructure. This is of particular concern to track owners as large
proportions of current track infrastructure are not expected to be replaced or materially
upgraded in the next 50-100 years.
Cost of mistakes
There is consensus by track owners that to build rail infrastructure that is more resilient to risks
associated with a changing climate will be considerably more expensive. Current engineering
standards and rainfall and runoff tables do not account for future changes in climate variables.
In some cases the financial benefits to track owners of this ‘over-engineering’ do not outweigh
the additional construction costs. This is compounded by the lack of accuracy (variable changes
and geographic impact) in data on climate change and extreme weather events (most
importantly flooding) that is not likely to satisfy the requirements of a financial business case.
Continuity and cost-benefit
Continuity is extremely important not only for rail industry, but also for those industries and
passengers that rely on rail services. A track owner may be able to sustain losses in the short
term due to an incident or extreme weather event, however small operators of organisations
that depend on rail may suffer significant damages to their operations.
In some competitive marketplaces where continuity of service and minimal service disruptions
can be a market differentiator, avoiding catastrophic risks such as extreme weather events may
11
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
factor more significantly into the decision making process. However, in the delivery of rail
infrastructure in a highly regulated market, where operators drive for lower access fees and
passengers demand lower fares, the cost of managing extreme weather risks, in many cases,
does not have a strong financial case.
In extreme weather events, service disruptions also cause negative externalities on the local
economies through the loss of passenger mobility and goods transportation. These losses are
not usually quantified or included when business cases for developing or upgrading rail
infrastructure to account for extreme weather events are compiled.
IBISWorld estimate that lost revenue to rail during the Queensland floods in Jan 2011, to be
approximately $26m with a repair bill of over $1bn. The lost revenue to the mining industry was
over $2.5bn for that period due to weather affecting mining, rail and port infrastructure.
12
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
2. Climate change: Getting the basics right
Australia’s climate is likely to change due to global warming. These changes will include higher
temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, higher sea levels and more frequent or intense extreme
events such as heatwaves, droughts, storms and cyclones. These changes will not be uniform
across Australia and will impact Australia’s regions and the rail industry in different ways.
The CSIRO has summarised the following key findings:
Australia is likely to become warmer, with uncertain rainfall changes in the north, and less
rainfall and more droughts in the south.
Heat waves and heavy rain events are likely to become more frequent worldwide, with less
snow, more fires, more heavy rainfall events and more intense cyclones.
Sea-ice and snow cover are projected to shrink.
Rainfall is very likely to increase in high latitudes and likely to decrease in most sub-tropical
and temperate land areas.
The area affected by droughts is likely to increase and tropical cyclones are likely to become
more intense.3
These projected changes from global warming are likely to impact the way we live over the next
century. Increased droughts will affect food production. Heavy rains will increase flooding
affecting housing and basic infrastructure. Sea level rise and storm surges will put low-lying
infrastructure and residential populations at risk.
Climate Variables
Estimates of future climate – usually called climate change projections or scenarios are very
important in assisting in identifying possible impacts of climate change on an area or project.
Climate change projections for Australia are developed by CSIRO from the International Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate change projections, which are based upon a range of
3
CSIRO website http://www.csiro.au/resources/Climate-Change-Continues.html
13
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
computer-based models of global climate and future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
Projections for climate change variables for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 are widely used. For
each of these future timeframes the projections cover three greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
scenarios – High, Medium and Low.
In many instances State governments have also produced refined down-scaled or regional
catchment based projections. Because there are a range of uncertainties around these there
are varying levels of confidence regarding estimates of future trends in key climate parameters.
The nature, rate and extent of climate change will differ across a State or region and downscaled projections have a reduced range of uncertainty associated with them. Where possible
State produced catchment level projections should be used.
As a general guideline, the key climate variables (e.g. temperature, sea level rise etc) and
associated climate change impacts (e.g. increased storms, bushfire etc) are illustrated in the
following diagram Figure 5.
The relationship between a climate variable, the projection of change to the climate variable
and a climate change impact are illustrated in Figure X below.
Figure 6
14
Linkage between the climate change and risk
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Assessing vulnerability to current climatic variability will make it easier to consider how future
climate change might affect the project.
Assessing climate change impacts from climate change variables has it complexities as the
variable will impact differently across different regions and over time. Some impacts will have a
strong geographic variation, while others, such as heat waves, will be felt almost equally. Some
will have important implications for the location of various land uses (e.g. cyclones, storm surge,
flooding), whilst others will have less implications (e.g. increasing temperatures). For instance
the topography of the local area is an important factor influences the climate change variable –
sea level rise– particularly for low lying coastal areas and areas susceptible to flooding.
It is expected that some variables such as sea level will rise gradually over many years. Changes
to the natural environment such as species and ecosystems may be gradual as to be almost
imperceptible. Assessment will need to accommodate these gradual, incremental changes.
On the other hand the climate change impacts such as storms, cyclones and heat waves are
highly visible, sudden, and extreme events that require disaster planning. For example, the
assessment will need to take account of average climate changes, such as seasonal temperature
increases, as well as changes in extreme climatic conditions, such as heatwave events. While
extreme climatic events are by definition rare, they often have the most significant impacts.
Unfortunately, they are also difficult to predict, so information on climate extremes is more
uncertain.
Understanding how this variation applies is useful for making assessments and planning
effective adaptation measures.
Vulnerability
Vulnerability are important considerations in climate change impact assessment. Vulnerability
is a function of project’s sensitivity to climatic variability, the exposure to climate risk, and the
inherent capacity to adapt. It is helpful to identify how particular types of weather have affected
assets and services in the past, and what the consequences of those weather events were.
Where possible, critical thresholds will need to be identified, which when exceeded, brought
unacceptable losses or infrastructure breakdown – alternatively this could have opened up a
new opportunity. There is also a need to think about how much risk the client is prepared to
tolerate, as this will inform the extent of assessment and ultimate adaptation needed.
15
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Vulnerability to changes in mean climate may be less obvious, and therefore more difficult to
foresee than vulnerability to changes in climate extremes. Changes in the frequency and
magnitude of extreme values of climate variables are also more difficult to predict, and more
uncertain, than changes in mean values.
Risk Assessment
To date most climate change assessments have used the Australian Standard for Risk
Management AS 4360: 2004, recently replaced by AS/NZS ISO 310000-2009 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines risk management framework,. To guide this work the Australian
Greenhouse Office (AGO), now the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
(DCCEE) has also developed a generic methodology based on the original risk standard AS 4360:
2004 for assessing climate change risks and developing an adaptation action plan (Climate
Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government, AGO 2006).
In the rail sector, changes to key climate variables are likely to impact rail track, overhead lines,
stations, bridges, yards, tunnels and other infrastructure. Likely causes of increased risk will be
increased flooding, storm surges, cyclones, heatwaves and bushfires. To adapt to these changes
in climate variables, Australia’s rail industry and government need to understand how they are
expected to change over the 50-100 years. It also will need to agree to a common set of
assumptions to be used by the industry in developing approaches to adaptation.
It is important for the rail industry to agree on various common parameters and assumptions to
be used in climate change adaptation assessments. This will enable more effective national level
analysis and prioritisation of adaptation activities.
Developing a common set of climate assumptions for the rail industry to use is complicated by
the following key issues which will be outlined in this section:

Multiple scenarios: The IPCC has developed multiple global scenarios that are based on
assumptions
on
population
growth,
predominant
energy
sources,
global
interconnectivity etc. Each model has different resulting degrees of global warming.
Multiple models: When developing the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, climate scientists

utilised data from 23 different climate change models. Each of these models address
16
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
different combinations of variables. In addition no scenario and model should be
analysed for more than one variable4.

Diversity of Australian Climate:
Australia is a large country with considerable
differences in climate from region to region. These range from tropical and semitropical regions in the north to enormous regions of arid land in the centre and west of
Australia.

Table of variables: Rail infrastructure will be affected by changes in a number of climate
variables. These variables have interdependencies and also have the potential to affect
different types of rail infrastructure in various ways.

Changing nature of climate science: Climate science is constantly being updated with
more up to date data (climate variables are constantly monitored) and up to date
models. Difficulties arise in developing static assumptions to be used in decision making
for long life assets.
4
www.ozclim.csiro.au
17
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
3. Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning
This paper suggests using the following climate parameters for the purposes of climate risk
assessments and adaptation planningl. As climate science and data is being constantly updated,
these should be viewed as point in time recommendations.
They should be reviewed
periodically as new data is released through the IPCC, CSIRO and other notable scientific
organisations. These assumptions are outlined in more detail in this section of the report.
Key adaptation assessment climate assumptions:
1. Climate Scenario: A1F1 - rapid economic growth, global population reaching 9 billion
then gradually declines, income and way of life converging between countries and
regions and emphasis on fossil fuels
2. Data:
a. Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report 2007 (CSIRO / BoM)
b. OzClim – Climate Change Scenario Generator (CSIRO)
c. Engineers Australia – Rainfall and Runoff Revision Report (due 2014 – although
some information may be available sooner)
3. Variables
Primary variables
a. Increased precipitation
b. Increased average temperature
c. Changing patterns of humidity
d. Increased incidence of extreme weather events
Secondary variables that are dependent on primary variables
a. Fire danger index
b. Storm surges and storms tide
c. Flooding, drought condition, wind, storms, extreme heat
Climate modelling and scenarios
All climate models are developed using baseline scenarios developed by the IPCC. Climate
Change in Australia (BOM and CSIRO, 2007) developed a series predictions for 23 climate
variables, utilised 23 climate models and six climate scenarios (IPCC 2007 Scenarios). This
18
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
analysis is contained in the Climate Change in Australia 2007 Technical Report. The scenarios
outlined represent the main scenarios used in policy analysis:
1. A1 – More integrated world:

rapid economic growth

global population reaching 9 billion then gradually declines

quick spread of new and efficient technologies

income and way of life converging between countries and regions
2. A1B – As above with a balanced emphasis on fossil and non-fossil energy sources
3. A1F1 – As above with emphasis on fossil fuels
4. B1 - world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly.

Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and
information economy.

Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1.

Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient
technologies.

An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental
stability.
The other scenarios include heavy reliance on alternative energy (A1T and B2) and a divergent
world (A2 and B2). They are not outlined in Table 3.
There is no mandated position on which climate scenario to use when attempting to analyse
climate variables. A recent study into inland flooding in Queensland concluded the A1F1
scenario should be used. This was on the basis that emissions are tracking at above the rates in
this scenario (a high emissions scenario)5. It is suggested that the rail industry adopt this
approach on this basis.
Climate change data in Australia
Based on the assumptions and overall global forecasts contained in the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report and various other recognised global
climate forecasting models the CSIRO, other research agencies and government departments
have committed considerable resources to forecasting climate change impact.
5
Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in changing climate: Final Scientific Advisory Group report
19
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
It is suggested that the rail industry use the data prepared by the CSIRO and BoM as presented
in the Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report and OzClim.
It is suggested that the rail industry also use the data prepared by the relevant State agencies.
Where the data differs should be highlighted and provides critical sensitivity analysis for the
projections.
Other national and state based guidelines and standards should also be referenced such as for
flooding projections essential input will be the Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff Report
when it is made available. See relevant state agencies for advice on the most recent guidance
material.
It should be noted that the availability of granular data varies significantly between sources,
and in many
Table 2 - Key Australian climate change data sources
Data source
Description
Climate Change in Australia –
CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology technical paper and data on climate change
Technical Report 2007
impacts in Australia.
An online climate change scenario developer. It allows users to :
 generate climate change scenarios
OzClim – Climate Change
Scenario Generator

explore climate scenarios from 2020 to 2100

be guided through the process of generating your own climate scenarios

download maps and projections data for non-commercial research
Engineers Australia – Revised
Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) is a national guideline document for the
Rainfall and Runoff report
estimation of design flood characteristics in Australia. The current 1987/1999 is now
(not yet available)
being revised and updated with new data including climate change projections.
A partnership of the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology, formed by the
Western Australian Government to support informed decision-making, on climate
Indian
Ocean
Climate
Initiative
variability and change in WA. Research is themed into the following categories:

WA climate baseline

Current and future climate of north-west WA

Very high resolution climate projections for South-West WA
Future climate information on NSW State Plan regions, covering the likely changes in
NSW Climate impact Profile
20
climate, including:
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Data source
Description

temperature, rainfall and evaporation by 2050

physical consequences of these climate changes (rise in sea level and changes
in run-off, flooding behaviour and fire regimes), and

the subsequent impacts of projected climate change and associated changes in
physical
lands
processes
(soils
and
on:
soil
processes)
– settlements (storm and flood damage),and

ecosystems (biological communities, individual species and ecological
processes).
Queensland Office of Climate
Various climate change adaptation publications and case studies on adaptation
planning and strategies
Change
Queensland Department of
The Plan provides guidance on climate hazard assessments and mitigation strategies
Environment and Resources
as it relates to the changing coastal environment.
Coastal Plan
Scientific study into the climate parameters that Queensland’s policy makers should
Increasing
Queensland’s
resilience to inland flooding
in a changing climate: Final
be using in relation to inland flooding. Main findings were:

an increase in rainfall intensity is likely

the available scientific literature indicates this increased rainfall intensity to be
Scientific Advisory Report
in the range of 3–10% per degree of global warming

more detailed analysis is required to firmly establish such a figure and this
work will be undertaken as part of the review of Australian Rainfall and Runoff.
Climate Futures for Tasmania
Climate change projections at a local scale for Tasmania. Is based on detailed
modelling using dynamic downscaling from the global climate model to 10km
simulations using the CSIRO’s Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model (CCAM)
Tasmania has undertaken one of the most detailed downscaling of climate models in
Australia.
South Australian Research
and Development Institute’s
Regional Climate Change
Projections
Regional projections for various climate variables in South Australia. No additional
downscaling (using Climate Change In Australia – Technical Report 2007 as basis).
Table 2 is an example of the level of detail contained in the Climate Change in Australia –
Technical Report 2007. The data is for scenarios A1B, B1 and A1F1 and in a low (10th percentile),
most likely (50th percentile) and high (90th percentile) range.
21
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Table 3 - Climate Change in Australia variable prediction under climate scenarios A1B, B1, A1F1 for
Sydney, NSW
Variable
Season
Annual
2030
A1B
th
10
0.6
2030
A1B
th
50
0.9
2030
A1B
th
90
1.3
2070
B1
th
10
1.1
2070
B1
th
50
1.6
2070
B1
th
90
2.2
2070
A1F1
th
10
2.1
2070
A1F1
th
50
3.0
2070
A1F1
th
90
4.3
Temperature
Summer
0.6
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.6
2.5
2.1
3.1
4.7
Autumn
0.6
0.9
1.4
1.0
1.5
2.3
1.9
3.0
4.3
Winter
0.6
0.8
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.9
1.8
2.4
3.7
Spring
0.7
1.0
1.5
1.2
1.7
2.5
2.2
3.3
4.8
Annual
4.1
4.4
5.1
4.5
5.3
6.6
6.0
8.2
12.0
Annual
-9
-3
+3
-14
-4
+5
-25
-8
+10
Summer
-7
+1
+9
-12
+1
+14
-21
+2
+28
Autumn
-10
-2
+6
-16
-3
+11
-29
-6
+21
Winter
-15
-5
+4
-23
-9
+6
-40
-16
+12
Spring
-16
-6
+4
-25
-9
+6
-44
-17
+12
Annual
+2
+3
+5
+3
+5
+8
+5
+9
+15
Summer
+1
+3
+5
+2
+5
+8
+4
+9
+15
Autumn
+2
+4
+6
+3
+6
+11
+7
+12
+20
Winter
+2
+5
+9
+3
+8
+15
+6
+16
+20
Spring
0
+2
+4
0
+3
+7
+1
+6
+13
Annual
-5
0
+4
-8
0
+6
-15
-1
+12
Summer
-5
+3
+11
-9
+4
+19
-16
+8
+36
Autumn
-9
-2
+4
-14
-3
+7
-27
-5
+14
Winter
-7
-1
+5
-12
-2
+8
-23
-3
+16
Spring
-8
0
+6
-14
-1
+10
-26
-1
+19
Annual
-1.3
-0.4
+0.4
-2.1
-0.6
+0.7
-4.0
-1.2
+1.3
Annual
-1.0
+0.3
+1.9
-1.6
+0.5
+3.1
-3.2
+0.9
+6.0
(ºC) Increases
NO. of days over
35ºC (currently
3.5)
Rainfall (%)
Potential
Evaporation (%)
Wind Speed (%)
Relative
Humidity (%)
Solar
Radiation
(%)
Climate variables
Most analysis has focussed on variables such as average temperature increases and average
rainfall increases. These are modelled and available for Australia as part of the OzClim project.
Data for other variables including relative humidity, solar radiation, sea surface temperatures,
wind speed change and potential evaporation is also available.
22
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
The highlighted variables in Table 3 will impact rail infrastructure. Table 3 also details how the
various climate change variables have been modelled / analysed to form projections for the
Australian climate and what projection timeframes are currently available for each variable.
Table 4 - Climate Change in Australia - Availability of modelling and forecasts for variables
Variable
2030
Year
2050
2070
Average Temperature*
X
X
Hot days
X
Warm nights
X
Extreme temperature host
X
Models
Scenarios
X
23 {all in Table 4.1}
6
X
23 {all in Table 4.1}
x
9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20}
A1B,
B1,
A1F1,
A2,A1B,B1
10{2,4,5,7,8,11,14,16,18,19} and downscaling
A2,B1
x
Average Precipitation
x
x
x
23{all in Table 4.1}
6
Precipitation intensity
x
x
x
9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20}
A2,A1B,B1
Dry days
x
x
x
9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20}
A2,A1B,B1
x
13{2,3,4,5,7,9,12,13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21}
B1,A1B,A1F1
x
9 {a}
B1, A1F1
Extreme
precipitation
Snow
daily
Relative humidity*
x
x
X
14{2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20}
6
Solar radiation*
x
x
x
6
Potential evaporation
x
x
x
20{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,15,16,17,18,19,20,21
,22,23
14{2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20}
Drought
x
x
2{0}
B1,A1F1
Average wind*
x
x
19{2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,2
2,23}
4 {7,13,18,19}
6
2 {5,6}
B1,A1F1
x
Extreme daily wind
Fire
x
Sea level rise
Literature review
Ocean thermal expansion
x
x
x
x
x
x
12 {2,3,5,9,10,11,13,17,19,21,22,23}
6
x
1{5}
A2
Oceanic storm surges
Sea surface temperature*
East Australian Current
Tropical Cyclones
17{1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,19,22,23}
A1B
Literature review
Ocean acidification
Literature review
x
x
Tornadoes
1 {5} and downscaling (RAMS)
A2
Literature review
Hall
X
x
1{5}
East coast laws
Literature review
ENSO
1{5}
Southern Annular Mode
Literature review
Southern storm tracks
Literature review
23
6
A2
B1,A1B1A2
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
How Australia’s climate will change
``Key vulnerabilities and exposure for rail assets to climate change (ASRC 2009)
Hazard
Vulnerability
Exposure
Increase in extreme
rainfall (flooding)
Inundation of assets.
Track and other
infrastructure integrity.
Electrical inundation and
failure.
Isolated staff and
commuters.
Landsides.
Low lying track and electrical
equipment.
Stabling yards.
Level crossings.
Low lying and inundation prone
stations.
Multiple points of network cut off.
Inland inundation from
sea level rise (SLR)
Reduction in track integrity.
Asset inundation.
Asset, staff and community
isolation.
Storm drain inundation.
Permanent low lying coastal and
inland asset inundation.
Advanced corrosion of infrastructure.
Temporary inundation of low-lying
assets (storm surge).
Increase in frequency and
severity of heat waves
Track buckling.
Power integrity (brownout
and blackout).
Commuters and staff.
Transmission line feed in from high
impact point of temperature rise.
Solar radiation impacts on a variety of
assets, staff and commuters.
Climate change and extreme weather events
The difficulty for climate risk assessment and adaptation planning in infrastructure is that most
important variables relate to extreme weather events and not average temperature or rainfall
increases. The inherent complexity in predicting extreme weather events is in the fact that they
are not caused by one single factor. Whilst there is data relating to number of days expected
above 35ºC, forecasts for other information such as flooding, extreme storms and extreme wind
events are not yet readily available. There are however some estimates published by the
Australian Government and the CSIRO that may assist the rail industry to understand any
increases in risk as a result of climate change. In some case detailed and recent climate
modelling and or impact modelling, such as flooding, can be sourced from State agencies or
research bodies such as the Bushfire CRC. Where available this modelling should be accessed
and cross-referenced to provide greater confidence in the assessment results. This will be
particularly important for assets and services in areas thought to be particularly vulnerable to
known current climatic conditions.
Extreme temperature events
24
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Extreme temperature events are measured in days per year, over or under certain temperature
thresholds. In Australia, with relevance to rail, the key concern is extremely high temperature
days, where tracks can buckle and/or mechanical or electrical systems can fail. A recent
example where this occurred was during Melbourne’s heatwaves in January 2009 where several
tracks experience some buckling, causing delays and urgent remediation.
Table 5 - expected number of days over 35ºC for major Australian cities.
Variable
Current
number
3.5
2030
A1B
th
10
4.1
2030
A1B
th
50
4.4
2030
A1B
th
90
5.1
2070
B1
th
10
4.5
2070
B1
th
50
5.3
2070
B1
th
90
6.6
2070
A1F1
th
10
6.0
2070
A1F1
th
50
8.2
2070
A1F1
th
90
12.0
Sydney
Melbourne
9.1
10.6
11.4
12.8
11.9
13.6
16.8
15.4
19.8
25.9
Brisbane
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.1
3.0
4.6
4.0
7.6
20.6
Perth
28.1
33.1
35.3
38.7
36.2
40.5
46.2
44.1
53.8
67.4
Adelaide
17
21.3
23
25.5
24
26.4
30.6
28.9
35.6
46.6
Canberra
5.4
6.9
7.9
9.9
8.1
10.5
13.0
11.8
16.9
24.7
Darwin
10.8
27.9
44.0
68.8
49.0
89.4
153.1
140.6
226.8
308.3
Hobart
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.4
3.4
Further data on regional areas is available through the www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au.
This data should be used as the basis of any risk analysis on the effect of extreme temperature
on rail infrastructure6.
Extreme rainfall events (flooding)
Most floods in Australia are a result of extreme sustained rainfall or coastal storm surges caused
by severe sea storms or tropical cyclones. Flooding can affect rail infrastructure in the following
ways:

Water covering tracks

Track damage and landslides

Overhead line damage

Bridge log jams and damage

Electrical damage to control units and switches

Yard damage
6
It is understood that the temperature threshold of 35ºC may not be the right threshold for rail applications. Climate
projections are improving rapidly and information on high thresholds may become available through CSIRO, BOM or
other organisations
25
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.

Station damage
Flood risk is typically based on analysis of past historical data. Organisations usually make
infrastructure decisions based on historical data and flood modelling if available. Key indicators
include Annual Exceedence Probability (AEP) and often a risk of 1% AEP (i.e. there is a 1%
chance that a flood of this size will occur every year). Climate change analysis has concluded
that the size of the 1% AEP will be increased from its current level due to global warming.
The magnitude of the increases and their impact on flooding on a region-by-region basis may be
slightly more difficult to forecast. The main source of flooding data is the Engineers Australia
Rainfall and Runoff data and flood frequency analysis methodology. This report however has not
been updated for 23 years and does not account for any climate changes due to global warming.
Currently this it being updated, however it will not be available until 2014. It will include
consideration for climate change and the resulting impact on rainfall levels in different parts of
the country7.
Climate Change in Australia have modelled the high level indicator, daily precipitation intensity
(rain per rain day).
Figure 2 - 2080-2099 minus 1980-199 in precipitation intensity (mm.day) for the A1B scenario (Climate
Change in Australia - Technical Report 2007)
An increase in daily precipitation intensity (rain per
rain day) and the number of dry days is likely.
Extreme daily precipitation (highest 1%) tends to
increase in the north and decrease in the south with
widespread increases in summer and autumn, but not
in the south in winter and spring where there is a
strong decrease in mean precipitation”
Following the Queensland floods in January 2011, the Queensland government commissioned a
report titled Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a changing climate: Final
report on the Inland Flooding Study. It concluded that policy makers in Queensland should use
a 5 per cent increase in rainfall intensity for each degree of global warming. This should be
7
Engineers Australia, Australian Rainfall and Runoff, Revision Projects and Document Updating
26
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
incorporated into the Q100, Q200 and Q500 AEP. This should also be updated as soon as the
Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff Revision Project is finalised.
27
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Sea level rise
Sea level is almost certain to rise between now and 2100. Global estimates range from 18cm to
59cm. Some CSIRO analysis has indicated that sea levels along the east coast may rise by an
additional 10cm over the global average due to the strengthening of the East Australian Current.
Table 6 - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report estimates of global Average sea level rise by 2100, Relative to
1990(from IPCC (2007a) Table SPM-3} for six IPCC emissions scenarios.
Emissions scenario
B1
A1T
B2
A1B
A2
A1F1
Central estimate
28 cm
33 cm
32 cm
35 cm
37 cm
43 cm
Estimate range
18-38 cm
20-45 cm
20-43 cm
21-48 cm
23-51 cm
26-59 cm
Sea level rise may impact track and yards that service ports. Australia has several of these low
lying sections of rail, the majority of which carry bulk cargo such as coal and iron ore for export.
Sea level rise, combined with increases in storm surges will have a significantly detrimental
effect on rail infrastructure.
Storm surge and storm tide
“A storm surge is a rise above the normal water level along a shore that is the result of strong
onshore winds and / or reduced atmospheric pressure. Storm surges accompany a tropical
cyclone as it comes ashore. They may also be formed by intense low-pressure systems in nontropical areas” Bureau of Meteorology.
Storm surges are most damaging when combined with high tides. These are often called storm
tides. Recent storm surges occurred during cyclone Yasi in north Queensland and caused
significant damage to the city through flooding and inundation.
28
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Climate change impacts such as increases in storm intensity and sea level rises have the
potential to increase these storm surge inundations across Australia. Two recent studies,
outlined in Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report 2007 reinforces this view.
Table 7 - 100-year return levels of storm tides for selected locations along the eastern Victorian coast
under current climate and 2030 and 2070 low, mid and high scenarios for wind speed and sea level rise as
given in Table 5.10 {from McInnes et al. 2005n}.
Location
Port
Welshpool
Port Franklin
Port Albert
Lakes
Entrance
Metung
Paynesville
Current
Climate
2030
2070
(m)
1.65
Low
(m)
1.67
Mid
(m)
1.75
High
(m)
1.84
Low
(m)
1.69
Mid
(m)
1.92
High
(m)
2.21
1.87
1.75
0.98
1.88
1.77
1.00
1.98
1.87
1.09
2.07
1.96
1.17
1.90
1.79
1.02
2.15
2.04
1.25
2.48
2.36
1.56
0.59
0.35
0.61
0.37
0.70
0.45
0.78
0.53
0.63
0.40
0.86
0.61
1.16
0.88
Figure 3 – Cairns storm surge example
The inundation produced by the top 5% of
storm surge simulations (100-year return
period and greater) under current climate
conditions and conditions assuming a 10%
increase in tropical cyclone intensity by 2050.
The road network of Cairns is shown in black to
highlight the urban impact of the inundation
(Source: McInnes et al 2003)
Storm surges can have a devastating impact on rail infrastructure, particularly yard and tracks
close to ports in Queensland and Western Australia where tropical cyclones are more prevalent.
29
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Cyclones
There is likely to be an increase in the proportions of cyclones in the more intense categories,
but a possible decrease in the total number of cyclones (Climate Change in Australia – Technical
Report 2007). A recent CSIRO study indicated that the number of tropical cyclones would
decrease by 44% and 9% in Western Australia and Eastern Australia respectively. It also showed
that a 140% increase in storm intensity of the most severe storms by 2070 was likely. The study
also indicated a shift in latitude for these storms of approximately 105km south was also likely.
Figure 4 – Changes in cyclone patterns
Simulated change in annual average
tropical
cyclone
occurrence
in
the
Australian region for 40-year time slices
centred on 2030 and 2070. Blue regions
indicated a decrease in tropical cyclone
occurrence and red region indicate an
increase in occurrence. Results are from
CCAM Mark3 simulations forces with the
SRES A2 scenario presented in Abbs et al
2006.
(Source:
Climate
Change
in
Australia – Technical Report 2007)
Topical cyclones can be extremely destructive to rail infrastructure. In January 2011, Cyclone
Yasi caused significant damage to tracks, signals and signage from Townsville to Cairns (the
North Coast line). This line was closed for 24 days following the cyclone.
30
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Bushfire risk
“A substantial increase in fire weather risk is likely at most sites in south-eastern Australia.
Such a risk may exist elsewhere in Australia, but this has yet to be examined” Climate Change
in Australia – Technical Report 2007.
In certain areas of Australia the risk of bushfires affecting services and damaging critical rail
infrastructure will increase. In many of these areas, bushfire risk is taken into account, however
this significant increase in risk in some areas may require some actions such as fuel reduction,
development of fire breaks, additional equipment at stations and/or increased site
maintenance.
Table 8 - Annual average number of days when the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFD) rating is very high or
extreme under present conditions {1974-2003} and for the years 2020 and 2050 for locations in south8
east Australia using CSIRO CCAM Mark 3 model
Site
Present
2020 low
2020 high
2050 low
2050 high
Canberra
Bourke
Cabramurra
Cobar
Coffs Harbour
23.1
69.5
0.3
81.8
4.4
26.0
73.9
0.4
86.6
4.7
28.6
80.3
0.4
92.8
5.6
28.9
80.6
0.6
93.0
5.6
38.3
98.2
1.0
108.6
7.6
Nowra
Richmond
Sydney
Wagga
Wildertown
Bendigo
Laverton
Melbourne
Mildura
Sade
Hobart
Launceston
13.4
11.5
8.7
49.6
16.4
17.8
15.5
9.0
79.5
8.7
3.4
1.5
14.2
13.1
9.5
52.8
17.3
19.7
16.6
9.8
84.6
9.6
3.4
1.6
15.6
14.3
11.1
57.4
19.4
21.9
17.8
11.1
90.7
10.7
3.5
1.9
15.6
14.4
11.3
57.7
19.4
22.00
17.8
11.2
90.9
10.8
3.5
1.9
19.9
19.1
15.2
71.9
23.6
29.8
22.3
14.7
107.3
14.0
3.5
3.1
8
The low and high values for each year reflect the low and high IPCC {2001} global warming values for that year.
{Source: Hennessy et al.2006.}
31
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
4. Further actions
This initial analysis is the first step in adaptation planning for the rail industry. To succeed in
future proofing critical infrastructure, the industry will need to drive a long-term programme of
activities aimed at mitigating a select group of important risks. This will require extensive
consultation and assistance from Government, climate scientists, research organisations, rail
operators and customers. It will involve embedding the concepts of adaptation and continuity
into the planning, development, maintenance and improvement programs of all the major rail
infrastructure owners.
Alternatively, the rail industry may decide to plan and adapt to climate change at the
organisational level with little cooperation between companies. This approach allows each
individual organisation to develop plans for adaptation including approaching government
stakeholders for additional funding if required.
This section outlines an approach based on industry-wide collaboration on climate change
adaptation.
Table 9 - Overview of possible future adaptation actions for rail industry
Stage
Description
1. Agree level of commonality
in
climate
change
adaptation approaches at
organisational level
2. Confirm
assumptions
Australian
organisations
climate
with key
research
3. Undertake organisational
level risk assessments
32
Confirm industry acceptance regarding plan for climate change and
agree on key assumptions to be used in organisational level analysis:

Climate change scenario

Climate change variables and data sources

Risks to be considered (minimum).
Industry to meet with CSIRO, BoM and Engineers Australia to confirm
the climate change assumptions and data to be used in organisational
risk assessments.
Infrastructure organisations to undertake internal risk assessment
using the common key assumptions, AS/NZS ISO 31000 and the draft
Standards Australia standard Climate change adaptation for
settlements and infrastructure (DR AS 5334).
Organisation should ensure that adaptation plans are developed for
high risk areas and that those plans are costed within a range of costs
and benefits.
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Stage
Description
4. Collate
industry
wide
comprehensive
risk
analysis of critical rail
infrastructure
Gather selected information from rail infrastructure organisations on
high-risk infrastructure. Collate information and confirm costs and
benefits of adaptation.
5. Form
working
group
comprised of industry and
government
Form an industry/government (State and Commonwealth) working
group to guide the evaluation and prioritisation of adaptation plans
and oversee their implementation.
6. Develop national program
of works with industry and
government
program
management
responsibilities
Working group to oversee the development of a national program of
works, with program and funding timeline.
7. Undertake
works
of
Adaptation activities to be managed by each individual infrastructure
owner and reported on to Working group.
8. Monitor and review of
program
Develop process for ongoing monitoring of progress through the
working group and independent reviews schedule.
program
1. Agree level of commonality in climate change adaptation approaches at
organisational level
The industry should agree to certain level of commonality in relation to climate change context,
key risks and overall approaches organisational level climate change adaptation risks
assessments / vulnerability assessments. This will ensure that any attempt in the future to
analyse critical risks to transport infrastructure by the industry or government, can be
completed without major rework of organisational level analysis and outputs.
f.
Climate scenario: Scenario to be used is A1F1 (see Section 2 for more details)
g. Variables consider as a minimum: Extreme temperature events
viii.
Extreme rainfall events (flooding)
ix.
Sea level rise
x.
Storm surge and storm tide
xi.
Storms
xii.
Cyclones
xiii.
Fire danger index
h. Data sources (see Table Table 10 for more details):
33
iv.
Climate change in Australia – Technical report 2007
v.
OzClim
vi.
Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff (Revised version due 2012)
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
i.
Minimum Risks to be analysed (this is not a comprehensive list but only the minimum to
be agreed on):
Table 10 – Minimum risk guidance
Variable
Extreme rainfall events
Risk
Infrastructure categories
Increased flood damage
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Increase in lost services due to Track (including culverts),
water covering tracks or low signalling, overhead, , tunnels,
adhesion
rail yards, stations
Increases in landslides
Track bridges, tunnels
Extreme temperature events Increased track buckling
Track (including culverts)
Sea level rise
Increased flood damage
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Increased flood damage
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Increased
damage
Overheads
Storm surge and storm tide
Storms
Cyclones
wind/lightening
Increases in debris delaying
Track, overheads
services
Increased flood damage
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Increased
damage
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
wind/lightening
Increases in debris delaying
Track, overheads
services
Increased fire damage
Bushfires
34
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Increases to fires or smoke N/A
delaying services
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
2. Confirm climate data and assumptions
Industry to meet with CSIRO, BoM and Engineers Australia to confirm the climate change
assumptions and data to be used in organisational vulnerability assessments. Research
organisations requested to comment on approach and provide suggestions on the use of
climate data and assumptions
3. Undertake organisational level risk assessments
All infrastructure owners are planning to or are already undertaking a climate change
adaptation risk/vulnerability assessment for their networks. Infrastructure owners are
encouraged to undertake these assessments according to their own internal risk
management approaches with the following considerations:

Utilise the minimum assumptions as outlined in the report. They relate to:


Climate change scenario

Minimum variables to consider

Main data sources to be utilised

Minimum risks to be analysed and assessed
Align programs with draft Standards Australia standard Climate change adaptation for
settlements and infrastructure (DR AS 5334).
4. Ensure that adaptation plans are developed for high risk areas and that those plans are
costed within a range of costs and benefits.
5. Involve scientific advice where possible and feasible. The science around climate
change is constantly changing. Currently it is one of the most heavily researched areas
in the scientific community.
Eminent organisations such as CSIRO and BOM are
updating their research on a continual basis. In addition various scientific advisory
groups are being created nationwide, performing targeted research on particular
climate change variables and regions9.
9
For an example, see the Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a changing climate: Final Scientific
Advisory Group report
35
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
6. Form working group comprised of industry, State and Commonwealth
stakeholders
It is widely accepted that adaptation planning for large infrastructure networks requires a
holistic approach. The combination of national interest, significant interdependencies
between operators and the scale of adaptation that may be necessary, requires a
nationwide approach to reviewing the climate change induced vulnerabilities in rail.
To facilitate this, a specific working group should be commissioned to guide a nationwide
approach to adaptation planning for rail. This group should be comprised of industry,
government (both State and Commonwealth) and eminent researchers in climate change
and adaptation.
The working group’s objective should be to guide the development and implementation of
a national approach climate change adaptation for Australia’s Rail network.
7. Collate industry wide comprehensive risk analysis of critical rail
infrastructure
Leveraging each individual climate change adaptation infrastructure risk assessment, the
working group should oversee the collation of these assessments into a National Climate
Change Adaptation Assessment for Rail Infrastructure. This report would include:
1. Detailed risk assessment identifying specific track locations, stations, bridges etc. that
are considered above a predetermined risk threshold
2. Adaptation plans for these ‘at risk’ infrastructure including:
a. Costs and benefits (both financial and economic)
b. Timing
c. Interdependencies
d. Funding propositions
e. Key assumptions
3. Prioritised schedule of adaptation activities
8. Develop national program of works with industry and government program
management responsibilities
Infrastructure owners to develop detailed adaptation plans for specific infrastructure in
partnership with the working group. The adaptation plans should include:
36
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
1. Justification for selecting an option
2. Key assumptions
3. Accountabilities and responsibilities
4. Infrastructure remediation/action description
5. Detailed costs and benefits schedule including resource requirements
6. Key performance indicators
7. Reporting and review process
8. Detailed project plan
9. Undertake program of works
Organisations to undertake adaptation actions and report regularly to the working group
on progress. This stage is highly dependent on the types of adaptation activities that are
chosen to be undertaken.
10. Monitor and review of program
It is better practice for potentially large program of works with public and private
stakeholders to have rigorous monitoring, review and evaluation process. This process may
include:
37

An independent program risk advisor

Mid term project review

Checkpoint/milestone reviews

Post-implementation review
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
References
Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC), AGIC guidelines for climate change adaptation,
2010,
http://www.agic.net.au/agic_climate_change_adaptation_guideline_for_infrastructure.pdf
CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), 2007: Climate change in
Australia – Technical report 2007,
http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/technical_report.php
CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), 2011, Ozclim: Climate
scenario generator, http://www.csiro.au/ozclim/home.do
Clark A, Barratt D, Munro B, Sims J, Laughlin G, Poulter D, 2006, Climate change: Adaptation in
agriculture, Australian Government, Bureau of Rural Sciences and Department of Agriculture,
Fisheries and Forestry
Council of Australian Governments, 2010, Commonwealth national climate change adaptation
Ffamework, http://www.coag.gov.au/coag_meeting_outcomes/2007-0413/docs/national_climate_change_adaption_framework.pdf
Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, 2011, Climate change risks to coastal
buildings and infrastructure: A supplement to the first pass national assessment,
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/coastline/riskscoastalbuildings.pdf
Garnaut, A, 2011, The Garnaut review 2011: Australia in the global response to climate change ,
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/garnaut-review-2011/summary-20June.pdf
Government of South Australia, South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI),
2010, Regional climate change projections, http://www.sardi.sa.gov.au/climate/publications
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, IPCC fourth assessment report:
Climate change 2007,
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml
Network Rail, 2010, Interim climate change adaptation report,
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/RP_Network_Rail.pdf
NSW Government – Department of Water and Energy, 2008, Future climate and runoff
predictions (-2030) for New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory,
http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/Water-management/Modelling/Climate-change/Climatechange/default.aspx
Queensland Office for Climate Change, 2010, Climate Change in Queensland: What the science is
telling us, http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
38
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Queensland Government, 2011, Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a
changing climate: Final report on the inland flooding study,
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/inlandfloodstudy.pdf
Queensland Government, 2011, Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a
changing climate: Final Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) report – Derivation of rainfall intensity
figure to inform an effective interim policy approach to managing inland flooding risks in a
changing climate, http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/sag-report.pdf
Rail Safety and Standards Board, 2010, Tomorrow’s railway and climate change adaptation:
Phase 1 report,
http://www.rssb.co.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/pdf/reports/Research/T925_rpt_phase1.pdf
Standards Australia, Climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure (draft), 2011
Steffen, W, 2009, Climate change 2009: Faster change and & more serious risks, Department of
Climate Change, http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/science/ccfaster_change.pdf
UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP), 2004 Costing the impacts of climate change:
Implementation report, http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wpcontent/PDFs/Costings_Implementation.pdf
UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP), 2003, Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decisionmaking, http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/Risk.pdf
Westra, S, 2011, Implications of climate change on flood estimation (discussion paper),
Engineers Australia,
http://www.ncwe.org.au/arr/Website_links/CC_Workshop_DiscussionPaper_Final.pdf
39
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Appendix A – Detailed risks
Variable
Risk
Increased flood damage
Extreme rainfall events
Increase in lost services due to water
covering tracks or low adhesion
Increases in landslides
Infrastructure categories
Data required
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical track damage
information
Revised Rainfall and Runoff tables /
adjusted rainfall intensity table
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, tunnels, rail
yards, stations
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical track outage information
Revised Rainfall and Runoff tables /
adjusted rainfall intensity table
Track bridges, tunnels
Detailed track maps and
topography
Past landslides data
Bedrock data
slope steepness data
hydrologic data (if applicable)
Revised Rainfall and Runoff tables /
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Variable
Risk
Infrastructure categories
Data required
adjusted rainfall intensity table
Extreme temperature events
Sea level rise
Storm surge and storm tide
Increased track buckling
Track (including culverts)
Increased flood damage
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Increased flood damage
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Detailed track maps and
topography
Sea level rise forecast data
Storm surge forecast data
Overheads
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical storm damage data
Storm activity forecast data
Track, overheads
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical storm-caused delay data
Storm activity forecast data
Increased wind/lightening damage
Storms
Increases in debris delaying services
41
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical buckling data
Temperature and solar radiation
data
Track material data
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Detailed track maps and
topography
Sea level rise forecast data
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
Variable
Risk
Infrastructure categories
Data required
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical track damage
information
Cyclone forecast data
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical track damage
information
Cyclone forecast data
Track, overheads
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical cyclone-caused delay
data
Cyclone forecast data
Track (including culverts),
signalling, overhead, bridges,
tunnels, rail yards, stations
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical bushfire data
Forest Fire Danger Index forecast
data
Cyclones
Increased flood damage
Increased wind/lightening damage
Increases in debris delaying services
Increased fire damage
Bushfires
42
Increases to fires or smoke delaying
services
N/A
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Detailed track maps and
topography
Historical bushfire-caused delay
data Fire Danger Index forecast
data
Appendix B – Useful reference and data list
General climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) is the leading international body for the
assessment of climate change.
Website contains the benchmark “4th
Assessment Report” as well as the recent
“Special Report on Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation”
http://www.ipcc.ch/#
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
is an agency of the United Nations dedicated to
meteorology (weather and climate), operational
hydrology (water) and other related geophysical
sciences such as oceanography and atmospheric
chemistry.
The website contains data on climate change as
well as information on climate risk
management.
http://www.wmo.int/p
ages/index_en.html
Department of
Climate Change
(Australia)
The Department of Climate Change and Energy
Efficiency’s main tasks are to reduce Australia’s
greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to inevitable
changes in climate and assist in creating a global
climate solution.
The website contains Australian climate and
climate adaptation policy and guidance as well
as information on grants and assistance.
http://www.climatecha
nge.gov.au/
Climate Change in
Australia
A collaborative effort between the Department
of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the
CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to
provide key climate change data for use by
Australian policy makers and organisations.
http://www.climatecha
ngeinaustralia.com.au/
United Kingdom
Climate Impacts
Programme
UKICP provides tools and resources for
government and organisations to use in
adapting to climate change.
This website provides useful guidance and tools
on assessing climate change risk and planning
adaptation. The site also contains many UK
specific climate change adaptation case studies,
http://www.ukcip.org.u
k/
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change
World
Meteorological
Organisation
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
General climate change
including rail-specific and transport case studies.
Adaptation guidance and methodologies
This draft (for comments) standard:
Draft climate
change adaptation
for settlements
and infrastructure
(Standards
Australia DR AS
5554)
Australian Green
Infrastructure
Fund (AGIC)
guideline for
climate change
adaptation
 “Provides principles and generic guidelines on
the identification and management of risks
that settlements and infrastructure face from
climate change; and
 describes a systematic approach to planning
the adaptation of settlements and
infrastructure based on the risk management
process.”
Not yet publically
available
Guidance on adaptation considerations for
infrastructure. Includes an adaptation
performance rating scheme for existing and new
infrastructure.
http://www.agic.net.au
/agic_cca_guideline_v2
.1_final_22_12.pdf
Adapting to
Climate Change –
An Australian
Government
Position Paper
Details a high level vision for the Government’s
approach to adapting to climate change
http://www.climatecha
nge.gov.au/~/media/pu
blications/adaptation/g
ov-adapt-climatechange-positionpaper.pdf
United Kingdom
Climate Impacts
Programme
This website contains specific tools and
methodologies for assessing climate change
risks and opportunities for various
organisations.
http://www.ukcip.org.u
k/
United Nations
Framework
convention on
climate change
Details on global adaptation frameworks,
national strategies and case studies.
http://unfccc.int/adapt
ation/items/4159.php
Guidelines on
developing climate
Guidance on how to consider adaptation at the
change impact
business case stage of a project. This can be
statements –
adapted to rail infrastructure.
Queensland
Government
http://www.premiers.q
ld.gov.au/publications/
categories/policiesandcodes/handbooks/cabi
nethandbook/assets/ccisguidelines.pdf
Climate change data (Australia specific)
Ozclim
44
Generation of climate data and climate
scenarios for specific variables
http://www.csiro.au/oz
clim/home.do
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure
Australasian Railway Association Inc.
General climate change
Climate change in
Australia
Climate data forecasts for several major
variables and scenarios
http://www.climatecha
ngeinaustralia.com.au/
Historical climate data
http://www.bom.gov.a
u/climate/
Commonwealth
Scientific and
Industrial
Research
Organisation
Climate research and data
http://www.cmar.csiro.
au/research/climate.ht
ml
Australian Online
Coastal
Information
Costal mapping an topography
Australian Bureau
of Meteorology
45
http://www.ozcoasts.g
ov.au/
Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure