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ERMITAGE Integrating economy and ecology Climate change policy often overlaps with energy and land use policies. Drs Neil Edwards, Rachel Warren, Maryse Labriet and Dieter Gerten introduce their important collaboration to identify future management strategies that allow more ecologically sound food and energy consumption in Europe What are the major focal points of the ‘Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for the Assessment of Global Environmental Change’ (ERMITAGE) project? RW: We are looking for synergies and conflicts between climate change policy and energy and land use policies. Specifically, the question is how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in order to reduce climate change, whilst maintaining food and energy security and at the same time preserving ecosystems. How would you define the current condition of, and relationship between, natural and socioeconomic systems in Europe? Can you highlight the notable issues with modelling capabilities? NE: Energy, food and water systems in Europe are strongly interconnected and, in places, stretched close to capacity by high population density. Natural systems are equally stressed 32 INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION in some areas. Climate, environmental and social changes will compound these issues with many of the predicted changes exacerbating the extremes. The interactions between related systems are highly region-dependent but also strongly related to global economic and climate systems. These regional variations are not yet properly addressed with consistent policy tools. Uncertainty is pervasive in all aspects and systems and cascades through the coupled problem, demanding robust treatment in decision and policy frameworks. Are your team members using novel or specialist tools in order to achieve the project’s research goals? RW: We are using the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) to link the models written at our participating institutions. This is based on novel state-of-the-art technologies developed at the University of East Anglia in collaboration with the University of Manchester’s Centre for Novel Computing. What is special about the CIAS tool is that it enables us to link models written in different programming languages. It is also a very flexible coupling system, so we can study uncertainties within and between models, and look at a range of policy questions. How will ERMITAGE develop and improve current interactive couplings of these models? Which details are you hoping to focus on and what stage would you say you are at with the project? DG: The project is structured along the coupling nodes that link the different components of the model loop. The one-way link of two intermediately complex models of the climate system (MAGICC) and of the terrestrial biosphere (LPJmL) has been successfully completed. In the next step, the feedback from climate-driven changes in the biosphere to the climate will be considered. Concurrently, we are ERMITAGE Modelling policy working on an improved coupling of the LPJmL biosphere model with an agro-economic land use allocation model (MAgPIE); the interplay of these models will allow the estimation of GHG emissions from land use changes, which in turn will feed back to the climate. ML: A similar approach is applied to link models of the climate system (PLASIM-ENTS) and of the energy system (TIAM-WORLD). The objective is to assess the interplay between the climate and the characteristics of the production and consumption of energy, including the impacts of climate change on heating and cooling, hydroelectric plants and bioenergy availability. What have been the key challenges of this research? How has ERMITAGE overcome these issues? ML: One of the key challenges of the research is its integrative nature which requires enhancements within each model, as well as innovative developments in the linkages of the models. However, these developments cannot wait until each model is fully ready: both individual model enhancements and linkage development must progress simultaneously and be regularly adjusted. Another challenge is the operational implementation of linkages between models using different programming languages, spatial and temporal resolutions, and modelling frameworks. RW: We can safely state, however, that these challenges have been overcome. The CIAS system can resolve these problems since it allows linkages to be made between models written in different languages. It also allows for conversions to be made between different temporal and spatial scales. A greater challenge was the adaptation of one of the technologies that support CIAS to cater for models which carry out optimisation routines. This required some imaginative thinking, but the hurdle has been crossed. In what areas are you hoping to develop your research efforts in the near future? ML: As regards techno-energy modelling such as the TIAM-WORLD model, we expect to systematically consider the impacts of climate change on the energy system in our future analysis, and contribute to a better assessment of the trade-offs between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. We also hope to implement similar approaches in other techno-energy models available at national or regional levels. ERMITAGE is coordinating scientists from across Europe to improve existing methods of climate modelling and integrate climate and socioeconomic models in order to determine how best to tackle climate change HUMANKIND IS FACING the challenge of climate change at a time when population growth and over-consumption is increasing the demand for food, water and energy, meaning the actions of today’s leaders are crucial to the future of our planet. In order to make optimal decisions, Europe’s policy makers rely on up-todate scientific research. Models and predictions about the future of our climate and the sustainability of our socioeconomic systems are readily available, but there are gaps when it comes to understanding the precise relationships between natural systems and socioeconomic policies. Filling these gaps in our knowledge is vital if we are to resolve existing tensions between environmental and economic policy, and implement effective, economically viable strategies for mitigating climate change. INTERDISCIPLINARY COLLABORATION Researchers from across Europe are collaborating on a project named ‘Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for The Assessment of Global Environmental Change’ (ERMITAGE). This aims to improve the integration of different models that are leading in their respective fields: climate models, energy models, land use models, and economic models. A major goal is to provide a detailed picture of our planet’s future, combining both environmental and economic issues. These models should afford a new degree of flexibility and analysis of uncertainties in the development of climate change policies and sustainable agriculture, energy and water management policies alike. The three-year project began in December 2010 and has recently completed its first phase. Coordinated by Dr Neil Edwards from the Open University’s Department of Environment, Earth & Ecosystems (UK), the research brings together expertise from six other institutions across Europe. Also contributing from the UK are the University of Manchester’s School of Computer Science and the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre School of Environmental Sciences. ENERIS Environment Energy Consultants is participating from Spain, while two Swiss partners are also involved: the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) and ORDECSYS SARL, who specialise in operations research and management science. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany completes the consortium. The overall aim of the project is to link all the models together into one system, incorporating different types and styles of models, regardless of the programming language in which they are written or the discipline from which they originate. To achieve this ERMITAGE is using a flexible modelling framework called the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), developed by Rachel Warren at the Tyndall Centre. The results will enable policy makers to better envisage different future scenarios in terms of the interactions between economy, ecology and society, and determine which policies have the most desirable consequences. STREAMLINED SIMULATIONS A major problem of existing climate and land surface models is their complexity; computationally they are too demanding to be practical for policy makers. To overcome this difficulty, ERMITAGE is developing emulators – simplified versions of the more complicated models – to carry out multiple simulations more rapidly while retaining a sufficient degree of accuracy. Once the complexity has been reduced, it is far more straightforward to exchange information between models of different subsystems. These emulated models can be run many times with slight variations to explore uncertainty and provide policy makers with the most comprehensive idea of potential outcomes. Edwards and his colleagues at the Open University created emulators of PLASIM-ENTS, an existing framework for climate modelling. Edwards is confident that this approach will be successful: “We have demonstrated that we can reproduce the output of certain complex models many orders of magnitude more quickly – that is hugely important for conducting ‘live’ policy analyses and for making coupled models more flexible. Of course you need to have completed many expensive computer simulations at the outset to construct those reduced-form models, but it is a hugely powerful technique”. ASSEMBLING A JIGSAW Once the emulator of the PLASIM-ENTS model was established, the project shifted focus to coupling it with on one hand, a land surface and climate impacts model system – consisting of the LPJmL and MAgPIE models developed at PIK –, and on the other hand, with an energy model, TIAMWORLD, in the first stage of construction of an interdisciplinary framework. When complete, this WWW.RESEARCHMEDIA.EU 33 INTELLIGENCE ENHANCING ROBUSTNESS AND MODEL INTEGRATION FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE OBJECTIVES To improve and extend integrated assessment framework models that will be applied to the analysis of post-2012 climate initiatives taking into account uncertainties and regional conflicts of interest in a coordinated way, propagating the analysis of uncertainty from climate simulation through to policy analysis, focusing particularly on the sustainability of agriculture, bio-energy and water resources. −120 PARTNERS The University of Manchester • The Open University • Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne • University of East Anglia • Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung • Ordecsys Sarl • Eneris Environment Energy Consultants SL FUNDING EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) – contract no. 265170 CONTACT −60 −30 0 30 60 120 Differences of annual runoff[mm] (2100 vs. 2000) platform should provide vital insights into how land, energy and water management can best be synergised with the changes in the climate. The first step was to provide the climate data needed for running the impacts model. This was successfully carried out in collaboration by scientists from the Open University, the University of Manchester, the University of East Anglia, PIK and Eneris Environment Energy how scenarios which are optimal for climate change mitigation might have economic, energy or land use consequences, and vice versa. The models will be able to find how best to compromise between each factor and situation. One important part of the team’s work is the calibration of existing international environmental agreement models which allow the assessment of policy implications on a global Dr Barbara Pizzileo Project Manager Environment, Earth & Ecosystems The Open University Walton Hall Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK T +44 190 865 2595 E [email protected] http://ermitage.cs.man.ac.uk DR NEIL EDWARDS is Reader in Earth System Science at The Open University. He is an Earth system modeller with interests in past and future climate change and in natural-societal system interactions. DR RACHEL WARREN is a Reader in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and NERC Advanced Fellow at the University of East Anglia. She is a lead author of the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports, and co-chair elect of the IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenarios for Climate Impacts Assessment. DR MARYSE LABRIET is the director of Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, based in Spain. Her research and consulting services embrace the development and application of integrated models for climate mitigation and adaptation. DR DIETER GERTEN heads the Planetary Opportunities and Planetary Boundaries research group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany. The results will enable policy makers to better envisage different future scenarios in terms of the interactions between economy, ecology and society, and determine which policies have the most desirable consequences Consultants, paving the way for the next step in the development of the platform. At the same time, another climate model, the MAGICC and ClimGEN climate modelling systems developed at the Tyndall Centre, were coupled to PIK’s LPJmL model. Rachel Warren, team leader at the Tyndall Centre, explains how the group is in the process of assembling a jigsaw: “We have already completed a number of two-way couplings, for example between MAGICC and LPJmL, and between the TIAM-WORLD energy model and the OU’s climate model. Hence, we have some pieces of the puzzle already assembled and we now need to complete the linkages so that we can look at the system as a whole”. Once a climate model has been linked to a land use model it can be used to generate economic impact predictions, because land use interacts with the economic system. This is a crucial stepping stone towards the overarching goal of the project. The final stage is to build links between land use and climate models and analyses of international environment agreements in order to provide policy makers with a far deeper understanding of the relationships between each domain. GLOBAL STRATEGY Through this completed framework, the team hopes that they will be able to show, for example, 34 INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION scale. This is being done using game theory, which helps to establish which international environment agreements might be the most stable and most effectively share the burden of climate change. ENABLING EFFECTIVE POLICY The ERMITAGE team is devoting a great deal of energy to ensuring that their work is accessible and user-friendly. The project website and an online portal allow policy makers and even members of the public easy access to their ideas and progress. The climate scenarios being used in the project are already publicly accessible at http://climascope.tyndall.ac.uk. If the team achieves their goals then this project could play a significant role in the 2015 climate talks. For the first time it will be possible to analyse the full impacts of policy and steer it towards more sustainable and effective pathways. By integrating models of climate, agriculture, energy, economy, policy, and land and water use, it will be easier to ensure a greater level of policy integration. The potential to remove conflicts between policies – for example where agricultural policies might undo the effects of environmental policies – will pave the way to a more coherent approach to climate change mitigation.