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ERMITAGE
Integrating
economy and ecology
Climate change policy often overlaps with energy and land use policies. Drs Neil Edwards, Rachel
Warren, Maryse Labriet and Dieter Gerten introduce their important collaboration to identify future
management strategies that allow more ecologically sound food and energy consumption in Europe
What are the major focal points of
the ‘Enhancing Robustness and Model
Integration for the Assessment of Global
Environmental Change’ (ERMITAGE) project?
RW: We are looking for synergies and conflicts
between climate change policy and energy
and land use policies. Specifically, the question
is how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, in order to reduce climate change,
whilst maintaining food and energy security and
at the same time preserving ecosystems.
How would you define the current condition
of, and relationship between, natural and
socioeconomic systems in Europe? Can you
highlight the notable issues with modelling
capabilities?
NE: Energy, food and water systems in Europe
are strongly interconnected and, in places,
stretched close to capacity by high population
density. Natural systems are equally stressed
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INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION
in some areas. Climate, environmental and
social changes will compound these issues with
many of the predicted changes exacerbating
the extremes. The interactions between related
systems are highly region-dependent but also
strongly related to global economic and climate
systems. These regional variations are not
yet properly addressed with consistent policy
tools. Uncertainty is pervasive in all aspects
and systems and cascades through the coupled
problem, demanding robust treatment in
decision and policy frameworks.
Are your team members using novel or
specialist tools in order to achieve the
project’s research goals?
RW: We are using the Community Integrated
Assessment System (CIAS) to link the models
written at our participating institutions. This is
based on novel state-of-the-art technologies
developed at the University of East Anglia
in collaboration with the University of
Manchester’s Centre for Novel Computing.
What is special about the CIAS tool is that it
enables us to link models written in different
programming languages. It is also a very flexible
coupling system, so we can study uncertainties
within and between models, and look at a range
of policy questions.
How will ERMITAGE develop and improve
current interactive couplings of these
models? Which details are you hoping to
focus on and what stage would you say you
are at with the project?
DG: The project is structured along the coupling
nodes that link the different components
of the model loop. The one-way link of two
intermediately complex models of the climate
system (MAGICC) and of the terrestrial
biosphere (LPJmL) has been successfully
completed. In the next step, the feedback from
climate-driven changes in the biosphere to the
climate will be considered. Concurrently, we are
ERMITAGE
Modelling policy
working on an improved coupling of the LPJmL
biosphere model with an agro-economic land
use allocation model (MAgPIE); the interplay of
these models will allow the estimation of GHG
emissions from land use changes, which in turn
will feed back to the climate.
ML: A similar approach is applied to link
models of the climate system (PLASIM-ENTS)
and of the energy system (TIAM-WORLD). The
objective is to assess the interplay between
the climate and the characteristics of the
production and consumption of energy,
including the impacts of climate change on
heating and cooling, hydroelectric plants and
bioenergy availability.
What have been the key challenges of this
research? How has ERMITAGE overcome
these issues?
ML: One of the key challenges of the research
is its integrative nature which requires
enhancements within each model, as well as
innovative developments in the linkages of
the models. However, these developments
cannot wait until each model is fully ready: both
individual model enhancements and linkage
development must progress simultaneously
and be regularly adjusted. Another challenge
is the operational implementation of linkages
between models using different programming
languages, spatial and temporal resolutions, and
modelling frameworks.
RW: We can safely state, however, that these
challenges have been overcome. The CIAS
system can resolve these problems since it
allows linkages to be made between models
written in different languages. It also allows
for conversions to be made between different
temporal and spatial scales. A greater challenge
was the adaptation of one of the technologies
that support CIAS to cater for models which
carry out optimisation routines. This required
some imaginative thinking, but the hurdle has
been crossed.
In what areas are you hoping to develop your
research efforts in the near future?
ML: As regards techno-energy modelling such
as the TIAM-WORLD model, we expect to
systematically consider the impacts of climate
change on the energy system in our future
analysis, and contribute to a better assessment
of the trade-offs between climate change
mitigation and adaptation strategies. We also
hope to implement similar approaches in other
techno-energy models available at national or
regional levels.
ERMITAGE is coordinating scientists from across Europe to improve existing
methods of climate modelling and integrate climate and socioeconomic
models in order to determine how best to tackle climate change
HUMANKIND IS FACING the challenge of
climate change at a time when population
growth and over-consumption is increasing the
demand for food, water and energy, meaning
the actions of today’s leaders are crucial to the
future of our planet. In order to make optimal
decisions, Europe’s policy makers rely on up-todate scientific research.
Models and predictions about the future
of our climate and the sustainability of our
socioeconomic systems are readily available, but
there are gaps when it comes to understanding
the precise relationships between natural systems
and socioeconomic policies. Filling these gaps in
our knowledge is vital if we are to resolve existing
tensions between environmental and economic
policy, and implement effective, economically
viable strategies for mitigating climate change.
INTERDISCIPLINARY COLLABORATION
Researchers from across Europe are collaborating
on a project named ‘Enhancing Robustness
and Model Integration for The Assessment of
Global Environmental Change’ (ERMITAGE).
This aims to improve the integration of different
models that are leading in their respective
fields: climate models, energy models, land
use models, and economic models. A major
goal is to provide a detailed picture of our
planet’s future, combining both environmental
and economic issues. These models should
afford a new degree of flexibility and analysis
of uncertainties in the development of climate
change policies and sustainable agriculture,
energy and water management policies alike.
The three-year project began in December 2010
and has recently completed its first phase.
Coordinated by Dr Neil Edwards from the Open
University’s Department of Environment,
Earth & Ecosystems (UK), the research brings
together expertise from six other institutions
across Europe. Also contributing from the UK
are the University of Manchester’s School
of Computer Science and the University
of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre School of
Environmental Sciences. ENERIS Environment
Energy Consultants is participating from
Spain, while two Swiss partners are also
involved: the École Polytechnique Fédérale
de Lausanne (EPFL) and ORDECSYS SARL,
who specialise in operations research and
management science. The Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany
completes the consortium.
The overall aim of the project is to link all the
models together into one system, incorporating
different types and styles of models, regardless
of the programming language in which they are
written or the discipline from which they originate.
To achieve this ERMITAGE is using a flexible
modelling framework called the Community
Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), developed
by Rachel Warren at the Tyndall Centre. The
results will enable policy makers to better
envisage different future scenarios in terms of
the interactions between economy, ecology and
society, and determine which policies have the
most desirable consequences.
STREAMLINED SIMULATIONS
A major problem of existing climate and
land surface models is their complexity;
computationally they are too demanding to be
practical for policy makers. To overcome this
difficulty, ERMITAGE is developing emulators
– simplified versions of the more complicated
models – to carry out multiple simulations more
rapidly while retaining a sufficient degree of
accuracy. Once the complexity has been reduced,
it is far more straightforward to exchange
information between models of different subsystems. These emulated models can be run
many times with slight variations to explore
uncertainty and provide policy makers with the
most comprehensive idea of potential outcomes.
Edwards and his colleagues at the Open
University created emulators of PLASIM-ENTS,
an existing framework for climate modelling.
Edwards is confident that this approach will be
successful: “We have demonstrated that we can
reproduce the output of certain complex models
many orders of magnitude more quickly – that
is hugely important for conducting ‘live’ policy
analyses and for making coupled models more
flexible. Of course you need to have completed
many expensive computer simulations at the
outset to construct those reduced-form models,
but it is a hugely powerful technique”.
ASSEMBLING A JIGSAW
Once the emulator of the PLASIM-ENTS model
was established, the project shifted focus to
coupling it with on one hand, a land surface and
climate impacts model system – consisting of the
LPJmL and MAgPIE models developed at PIK –, and
on the other hand, with an energy model, TIAMWORLD, in the first stage of construction of an
interdisciplinary framework. When complete, this
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INTELLIGENCE
ENHANCING ROBUSTNESS AND MODEL
INTEGRATION FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
OBJECTIVES
To improve and extend integrated assessment
framework models that will be applied to the
analysis of post-2012 climate initiatives taking
into account uncertainties and regional conflicts
of interest in a coordinated way, propagating the
analysis of uncertainty from climate simulation
through to policy analysis, focusing particularly
on the sustainability of agriculture, bio-energy
and water resources.
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PARTNERS
The University of Manchester • The Open
University • Ecole Polytechnique Federale
de Lausanne • University of East Anglia •
Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
• Ordecsys Sarl • Eneris Environment Energy
Consultants SL
FUNDING
EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) –
contract no. 265170
CONTACT
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Differences of annual runoff[mm] (2100 vs. 2000)
platform should provide vital insights into how
land, energy and water management can best be
synergised with the changes in the climate.
The first step was to provide the climate data
needed for running the impacts model. This
was successfully carried out in collaboration
by scientists from the Open University, the
University of Manchester, the University of
East Anglia, PIK and Eneris Environment Energy
how scenarios which are optimal for climate
change mitigation might have economic,
energy or land use consequences, and vice versa.
The models will be able to find how best to
compromise between each factor and situation.
One important part of the team’s work is
the calibration of existing international
environmental agreement models which allow
the assessment of policy implications on a global
Dr Barbara Pizzileo
Project Manager
Environment, Earth & Ecosystems
The Open University
Walton Hall
Milton Keynes
MK7 6AA, UK
T +44 190 865 2595
E [email protected]
http://ermitage.cs.man.ac.uk
DR NEIL EDWARDS is Reader in Earth System
Science at The Open University. He is an Earth
system modeller with interests in past and
future climate change and in natural-societal
system interactions.
DR RACHEL WARREN is a Reader in Integrated
Assessment of Climate Change and NERC
Advanced Fellow at the University of East Anglia.
She is a lead author of the IPCC Fourth and
Fifth Assessment Reports, and co-chair elect of
the IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenarios for
Climate Impacts Assessment.
DR MARYSE LABRIET is the director of Eneris
Environment Energy Consultants, based in Spain.
Her research and consulting services embrace
the development and application of integrated
models for climate mitigation and adaptation.
DR DIETER GERTEN heads the Planetary
Opportunities and Planetary Boundaries
research group at the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.
The results will enable policy makers to better envisage different future
scenarios in terms of the interactions between economy, ecology
and society, and determine which policies have the most desirable
consequences
Consultants, paving the way for the next step in
the development of the platform. At the same
time, another climate model, the MAGICC and
ClimGEN climate modelling systems developed
at the Tyndall Centre, were coupled to PIK’s LPJmL
model.
Rachel Warren, team leader at the Tyndall Centre,
explains how the group is in the process of
assembling a jigsaw: “We have already completed
a number of two-way couplings, for example
between MAGICC and LPJmL, and between the
TIAM-WORLD energy model and the OU’s climate
model. Hence, we have some pieces of the puzzle
already assembled and we now need to complete
the linkages so that we can look at the system as a
whole”. Once a climate model has been linked to a
land use model it can be used to generate economic
impact predictions, because land use interacts with
the economic system. This is a crucial stepping
stone towards the overarching goal of the project.
The final stage is to build links between land use
and climate models and analyses of international
environment agreements in order to provide policy
makers with a far deeper understanding of the
relationships between each domain.
GLOBAL STRATEGY
Through this completed framework, the team
hopes that they will be able to show, for example,
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INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION
scale. This is being done using game theory,
which helps to establish which international
environment agreements might be the most
stable and most effectively share the burden of
climate change.
ENABLING EFFECTIVE POLICY
The ERMITAGE team is devoting a great deal of
energy to ensuring that their work is accessible
and user-friendly. The project website and an
online portal allow policy makers and even
members of the public easy access to their ideas
and progress. The climate scenarios being used
in the project are already publicly accessible
at http://climascope.tyndall.ac.uk. If the team
achieves their goals then this project could play
a significant role in the 2015 climate talks.
For the first time it will be possible to analyse
the full impacts of policy and steer it towards
more sustainable and effective pathways. By
integrating models of climate, agriculture,
energy, economy, policy, and land and water
use, it will be easier to ensure a greater level
of policy integration. The potential to remove
conflicts between policies – for example
where agricultural policies might undo the
effects of environmental policies – will pave
the way to a more coherent approach to
climate change mitigation.