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Vol.3 No.1 Mar. 2013
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ACTS Website: http://www.apectyphoon.org
An Introduction to Climate Change in Taiwan:
Scienti�ic Report 2011
Yi-Chao Wu¹, Huang-Hsiung Hsu², Chia Chou², Mong-Ming Lu³, Cheng-Ta Chen⁴ and Yung-Ming Chen¹
¹Meteorology Division, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction;
²Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica;
³Meteorological Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau;
⁴Department of Earth Sciences & Institute of Marine Environmental Science and Technology, National
Taiwan Normal University
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) published its fourth Assessment Report (IPCC
AR4) in 2007, which discussed climate change in the
last 100 years and the possible impact of continuous
warming over the next 100 years. The report
indicated that, in the last 100 years, global mean
surface temperatures have risen by 0.74°C, the rate
of warming is accelerating, the sea level has risen,
and the frequency and intensity of extreme events
such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rains have
increased (IPCC, 2007). The United Nations (UN) has
repeatedly called on governments worldwide to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow down
global warming, to acknowledge the impact of
climate change, and to implement adaptation
measures.
applications. It aims to enhance climate change
research in Taiwan, to consolidate the capacity for
climate change research and projection, and to
implement climate change information applications
and services.
Based on the first-year research of the TCCIP, NSC
published a climate change report, Climate Change
in Taiwan: Scientific Report 2011. This scientific
report is valuable not only because it is the first
official climate change report of Taiwan, but also
because it is particularly written to address the
regional climate change in Taiwan. Coauthored by
the scholars and experts participating in the project,
this report reviews and integrates current and past
research results and scientific advances to provide
the most up-to-date information on global and
Taiwan’s climate change. It investigates past climate
Taiwan is in an area that is at high-risk for natural
change by reviewing previous research and
disasters. The impact of climate change is a major
examining important mechanisms affecting climate
concern to the government and the public. Climate
change and homeland security have become critical variation in Taiwan and East Asia. The project also
issues that cannot be ignored. Because the effects of applies statistical downscaling on the 24 IPCC AR4
climate change on Taiwan are likely to increase, the General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations to
project future climate change in Taiwan. All the
country requires more scientific data and research
results to inform climate change adaptation policies. projected results have been included in the report.
In addition, an uncertainty estimate is provided to
Therefore, at the end of 2009, the Sustainable
allow for risk assessments. This report is valuable for
Development Research Committee of Taiwan’s
academic research and government climate change
National Science Council (NSC) launched a
three-year-long project, the Taiwan Climate Change policy making.
Projection and Information Platform Project (TCCIP,
This full scientific report covers a wide range of
2010 to 2012). The project promotes climate change
topics and consists of six chapters. The first chapter
research and integrates climate change impact
reviews and summarizes the most current global
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Vol.3 No.1 Mar. 2013
climate change research, focusing on the IPCC AR4
results and subsequent research. Because climate
change in Taiwan is affected mainly by the East Asian
and western North Pacific climate systems, Chapter
2 reviews and summarizes the climate change
research in these regions to understand regional
climate change and its effects on Taiwan. When
interpreting scientific data related to climate change,
it is necessary to distinguish between natural climate
variability (e.g. El Niño/Southern Oscillation and
interdecadal variability) and anthropogenic climate
change. Chapter 3 clarifies this difference and
discusses the current research results. Based on
research results and the latest analyses, Chapter 4
describes and analyzes past trends and variations in
Taiwan’s climate. Chapter 5 discusses future climate
change projections, including the latest climate
change projections for the world, East Asia, and
Taiwan. The uncertainty of climate change
projection is also explained. Chapter 6 illustrates the
effects of climate change (especially increases in
extreme events) and environmental change (e.g.
anthropogenic environmental change and
population and economic growth) on the impact of
disasters. It concludes that these two are essential
factors leading to increases in disaster losses and
changes in disaster characteristics both globally and
locally.
APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society
10F, No.97, Sec.1, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei, 10093, Taiwan
Tel: 886-2-3366-8975 Email: [email protected]
ACTS Website: http://www.apectyphoon.org
To what degree has climate change affected
disastrous weather events (such as typhoons,
heavy rainfall, drought, heat waves, and cold
surges)?
What is the relationship between climate
change and climate events such as El Niño or
Arctic Oscillation (usually interpreted as
abnormal climate by the public)?
How are natural disasters, which are becoming
more serious, related to climate change?
How reliable are Taiwan’s future climate
projections? How should the government and
the public use or interpret climate change
information?
As this report emphasizes regional climate change in
Taiwan, answers to the above-mentioned issues
particularly related to Taiwan’s climate change are
summarized below.
How do temperature and rainfall trends in Taiwan
compare to global trends?
The annual mean temperature in Taiwan increased
by 1.4°C between 1911 and 2009. This is equal to an
increase of 0.14°C per decade. In the last 30 years
(1980 to 2009), the warming rate in Taiwan has
accelerated significantly at a rate of 0.29°C per
decade. This is almost twice the rate of the last
The original report consists of six chapters and is 362
century.
pages long, which may be downloaded at
http://satis.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/ccsr/index.files/introduc Although overall average precipitation in Taiwan
e.htm. To help readers understand the main topics, a shows multidecadal variability, a century-long linear
technical summary containing the most important
trend is not evident. The number of rain days
points from the full report is provided. In addition,
throughout Taiwan is consistently decreasing.
five critical issues, as listed below, are particularly
What is the projected future climate in Taiwan?
addressed to answer questions of major concern to
the government and the public.
Regarding near-surface temperature projections
under the A1B scenario (see note), approximately
What are overall climate trends in Taiwan
half of the climate models project that temperature
relative to global climate trends?
increases at the end of the twenty-first century
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Vol.3 No.1 Mar. 2013
APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society
10F, No.97, Sec.1, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei, 10093, Taiwan
Tel: 886-2-3366-8975 Email: [email protected]
ACTS Website: http://www.apectyphoon.org
(compared to 100 years ago) will range between 2°C Taiwan. It includes new research results and several
unresolved issues. Unresolved issues include an
and 3°C, which is slightly lower than the average
incomplete understanding of factors affecting
global temperature increase.
Taiwan’s climate and the uncertainty of future
Most of the multi-model simulations project that
climate change. Climate change projections are
mean winter precipitation in all regions will
uncertain because of GCM simulation uncertainty
decrease, with approximately half of the models
and downscaling process errors. No adequate
projecting a decrease between 1% and 23%. In
scientific technique exists to fully address these
Southern Taiwan, mean spring precipitation changes
problems. Climate change research and projection is
are similar to winter changes. In summer, more than
an ongoing process. The more climate change is
60% of the models project an increase in seasonal
understood, the more GCM projections will improve.
mean precipitation in all regions, and approximately
Climate change research and projection in Taiwan
half of the models project an increase between 15%
should also be ongoing processes. The IPCC data will
and 45%.
be regularly updated and should be used to regularly
update Taiwan’s climate change projection. The IPCC
How are natural disasters, which are becoming
schedules to publish its fifth assessment report and
more serious, related to climate change?
updated projection in 2014. This information will be
According to World Bank statistics, Taiwan is a
used to update Taiwan’s climate change research
high-risk disaster area because it is affected by
and projections.
multiple types of disasters (Dilley et al. 2005).
Climate change projections in this report indicate
Characteristics of disasters in Taiwan are similar to
that Taiwan may experience the effects of increased
those of global disasters; that is, most of them are
hydrometeorological. Disaster statistics (for floods, rainfall in the wet season and less rainfall in the dry
season. That means there will be a greater difference
slope land disasters, and droughts) show that
in precipitation between wet and dry seasons, and
disaster frequency in Taiwan has increased, and
allocating water resources between wet and dry
disaster characteristics have changed (mainly
water-soil compound disasters) recently. Economic seasons will be a challenge to water resources
losses associated with disasters have increased, and management. As future climate extremes and
the aspects influenced by disasters have broadened, environmental changes affect Taiwan’s environment,
current disaster reduction systems and homeland
indicating that disaster magnitude has increased.
security must adapt to different challenges; for
This is closely related to not only the increase in
weather and climate extremes but also the changes example, extremes becoming normal, changing types
of disasters, and disaster magnitude exceeding
in the natural and social environment. Statistics
historical experience and protection capabilities.
show that the severity of typhoon and flood
While the government should consider the existing
disasters is related to an increase in extreme
experience of disaster response and management
precipitation. Whether precipitation-intense
systems to reduce disaster risks, homeland security
typhoons are defined by their short-term
and sustainable development authorities must apply
(accumulated over 1 to 6 hrs.) or long-term
new thinking and actions to strengthen homeland
(accumulated over 48 hrs.) precipitation, the
security and develop disaster reduction adaptation
frequency of intense precipitation typhoons has
strategies to respond to climate and environmental
increased prominently from 2000 to 2009.
changes and efficiently mitigate the impact of
The report describes current understandings of past
climate change.
climate change and future climate projections in
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Vol.3 No.1 Mar. 2013
APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society
10F, No.97, Sec.1, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei, 10093, Taiwan
Tel: 886-2-3366-8975 Email: [email protected]
ACTS Website: http://www.apectyphoon.org
Note:
SRES Scenarios
SRES refers to the scenarios described in the IPCC Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000). The SRES
scenarios are grouped into four scenario families (A1, A2, B1
and B2) that explore alternative development pathways,
covering a wide range of demographic, economic and
technological driving forces and resulting GHG emissions.
The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate policies
above current ones. The emissions projections are widely
used in the assessments of future climate change, and their
underlying assumptions with respect to socio-economic,
demographic and technological change serve as inputs to
many recent climate change vulnerability and impact
assessments.
The A1 storyline assumes a world of very rapid economic
growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and
rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
A1 is divided into three groups that describe alternative
directions of technological change: fossil intensive (A1FI),
non-fossil energy resources (A1T) and a balance across all
sources (A1B). B1 describes a convergent world, with the
same global population as A1, but with more rapid changes
in economic structures toward a service and information
economy. B2 describes a world with intermediate population
and economic growth, emphasising local solutions to
economic, social, and environmental sustainability. A2
describes a very heterogeneous world with high population
growth, slow economic development and slow technological
change. No likelihood has been attached to any of the SRES
scenarios.
(Source: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of
Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri,
R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.)
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third
Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp.
Reference
Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Chia Chou, Yi-Chao Wu, Mong-Ming Lu, Cheng-Ta Chen, Yung-Ming Chen, 2011: Climate Change in Taiwan:
Scientific Report 2011 (Summary). National Science Council, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C., 67pp.
TCCIP 2011: Climate Change in Taiwan: Scientific Report 2011. National Science Council, Taiwan, R.O.C., 2011, 362 pp. (in Chinese).
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