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Integrated Climate Change Strategies
for Sustainable Development
of Russia’s Arctic Regions
(Case Study for Murmansk oblast)
Summary
Мoscow
2009
Integrated Climate Change Strategies for Sustainable Development of Russia’s Arctic Regions (Case Study for
Murmansk oblast). Summary – Moscow: UN Development Programme in Russia, Russian Regional Environmental
Centre, 2009.
The Analytical Study has been prepared by a team of Russian experts and consultants. The analysis and policy recommendations
in this Report do not necessarily reflect the views of the UN system and the institutions by which the experts and consultants
are employed.
Content
1. The Russian Arctic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2. Мurmansk oblast: Natural, Climatic and Socio-Economic Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3. Climate Change and its Impacts on the Arctic Region and Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Project coordinators:
Natalia Olofinskaya
– Head of Environment Unit, UNDP Russia. Moscow
Julia Dobrolyubova
– Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol, Russian Regional Environmental Centre
(RREC). Moscow
Authors:
Vladimir Berdin
3.1
Current climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1.1 The Arctic region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1.2 Murmansk oblast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2
Climate change forecasts by the mid-21st century. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.3
Impacts of climate change on ecosystems,
economy and population of the Arctic and Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
4. Solutions: Mitigating Climate Change and Adapting to the Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4.1
4.2
– Expert of the National Methane Centre. Moscow (climate change mitigation)
Dinara Gershinkova
– Head of the Department of Scientific Programmes, Information Resources and International
Co-operation at the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
(Roshydromet). Moscow (climate change adaptation)
Julia Dobrolyubova
– Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol, Russian Regional Environmental Centre
(RREC). Moscow (cross-cutting issues, introduction, conclusions, general coordination)
Vladimir Masloboyev
– PhD, Deputy Chairman of the Presidium of the Kola Scientific Centre of the Russian
Academy of Sciences; Director of the Institute for Problems of Industrial Ecology of the
North. Apatity, Murmansk Oblast (regional aspects)
– PhD, Director of the World Ocean Centre of the State Scientific-Research Institution,
Council for Production Forces Studies (SOPS), at the Ministry for Economic Development
of the Russian Federation; Member of the Research & Expert Council of the Marine
Panel under the Government of the Russian Federation. Moscow
Project partners:
Mitigation of climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Adaptation to climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5. Possible Measures for Climate Change Adaptation in Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
5.11
5.12
5.13
Reviewed by:
Alexey Konovalov
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Oil & gas extraction on the continental shelf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Energy sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Development of shipping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Fishing industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Land and river transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Infrastructure: coastal areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Infrastructure: thawing of permafrost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Agriculture and forestry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Extreme weather events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Tourism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Environmental conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Human health. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
Small indigenous peoples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
6. Prospects for Climate Change Mitigation in Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
7. Integrated Climate Strategies in Russian Arctic Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
8. Uncertainties and Knowledge Gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Main Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Bibliography and Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and the CIS (RBEC, Bratislava, Slovak Republic)
Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC, Szentendre, Hungary)
© UN Development Programme in Russia
© Russian Regional Environmental Centre
Circulation: 300 copies.
Moscow, 2009
Cover graph: Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004
1
Introduction
2
Climate change and its consequences for natural,
economic and social systems is one of the most important
issues facing the international community today.
The fact that the Earth’s climate is changing is no
longer in doubt. Meteorological data testify that average
temperature has increased globally by 0.74 °С during
the last 100 years. Various scenarios and forecasts by the
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is
the most reputable international body for climate change
issues (uniting over 2500 scientists from 130 countries,
including Russia), suggest the temperature on Earth may
raise by between 1.8 and 4.6 °С before the end of this
century.
Temperatures in Russia are rising faster than the
average for the planet. Data from Russian meteorological
stations report that annual average air temperature in our
country increased by 1.29 °С from 1907 to 2006 (versus
0.74 °С on a global scale). If temperatures continue to
rise at the same rate, it will be nearly 2 °С warmer in
Russia by the middle of this century compared with the
start of the last century.
The findings of scientists suggest that human impact
is contributing to the ongoing process. Current global
changes in the climate system have been linked with
unprecedented growth in atmospheric concentration of
so-called greenhouse gases (GHG), i.e. carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide, etc. IPCC suggests that growth
in concentrations of the three major GHGs since the
mid-18th century (the beginning of the industrial age) is
very probably connected with human economic activity,
primarily combustion of carbonic fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal,
etc.) and industrial processes, as well as deforestation
(since forests naturally absorb atmospheric CO2).
Joint efforts to reduce GHG emissions in the medium
and long term are now at the top of the international
agenda in order to mitigate forecasted climate changes,
prevent temperature increase and avoid dangerous and
irreversible consequences in the future. Actions are
needed that focus, primarily, on more efficient energy
use, reduced consumption of fossil fuels, development
of renewable energy sources, and new «climate-friendly»
and «low-carbon» technologies.
Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change are already
being felt, and forecasts suggest that they will only
intensify in the future. Relevant measures need to be
taken at once to react and adapt to observed and forecasted
climate change, so that economic costs can be reduced
and sustainability of socio-economic infrastructure can
be increased in advance of future negative processes.
These two tasks require an integrated approach:
adaptation measures should be coordinated with steps
to reduce GHG emission, and vice versa.
Timely design and adoption of integrated strategies
for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its
impacts is an important precondition for sustainable
regional development in conditions of climate volatility.
As well as reducing negative impact of climate change,
such strategies can support economic development,
employment and health, and can generate gains through
infrastructure development and reduction of electricity
prices. In the future, such climate strategies should
become an integral part of regional socio-economic
development programmes and programmes for specific
economic sectors.
In Russia, climate change is most apparent in the
country’s Arctic regions. During the last 100 years
average temperatures in the Arctic have been growing
twice as quickly as the planetary average. From the 1980s
and onwards, winter and spring temperatures in most
Arctic regions have been rising by 1°С per decade.
Increase of atmospheric temperature, rising sea levels,
coastal erosion, decrease of snow-mass, melting of ice and
permafrost, displacement of the natural habitat of plants
and animals, and increased frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events are already having an impact on
industrial and social infrastructure of the Russian Arctic,
threatening human health and lives, and the existence
of plants and animals. The Arctic is exceptionally
vulnerable to such impacts due to its extreme climate,
fragile ecosystems, isolation of polar regions from the
economic and political centres of the rest of the country,
and underdevelopment of transport communications and
other infrastructure.
On the other hand, global warming may bring
certain economic benefits for Arctic regions, such as,
for instance, expansion of arable lands, shortening of
the heating season, and development of shipping in the
Arctic Ocean.
The Russian Arctic is a major source of fossil fuels.
Plans to increase natural resource mining and to
develop industrial production in polar regions add to
the importance of helping the Arctic to adapt to climate
change and mitigating the effects of such change through
reduction of GHG emissions.
In 2008, the UN Development Programme (UNDP)
in Russia and the Russian Regional Environmental Centre
(RREC) initiated a pilot project for development of lowcarbon and climate-resilient territories in the Russian
Arctic. Murmansk Oblast was selected for the pilot
project in view of its high concentration of strategically
important and climate-reliant economic sectors, as well
as higher population density in the region compared
with Russia’s other Arctic territories (at present over
40% of the Russian Arctic population lives in Murmansk
oblast).
The goal of the project is to carry out holistic assessment
of climate change impacts on economic development
and society in a specific region of the Russian Arctic
(Murmansk oblast), and to make development proposals
for adaptation and GHG emission reduction strategies in
various sectors of the regional economy, which could be
further incorporated into socio-economic development
programmes. The project also aims to bring key issues
to the attention of decision-makers, business, and the
general public in the Russian Arctic and in the country
as a whole.
Project implementation began with an international
conference, «Adaptation to climate change and its role in
securing regional sustainable development» and an expert
round-table, organized in Murmansk by UNDP/RREC
on May 13-14, 2008. The purpose of these events was to
raise awareness of stakeholders in the region (primarily
representatives of the regional administration and
business) concerning issues of climate change and its
consequences, and to outline priority tasks and elaborate
a phased action plan for development of a regional climate
strategy for Murmansk oblast. The Federal Service
for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
(Roshydromet) and its territorial section in Murmansk
oblast, the Administration of Murmansk oblast, and the
Kola Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
all provided substantial support during preparation and
conduct of these events.
The complex research presented here has been
prepared by RREC and UNDP in order to encourage
further progress in this direction. The document is
intended to serve as technical background material
for further development of sustainable development
programmes in Russian Arctic regions as a whole and
Murmansk oblast in particular, envisaging activities
for GHG reduction and lowering vulnerability of
environmental, economic, and social systems to climate
change though adaptation measures.
This study is the first to consolidate existing, but
dispersed and unsystematized data of climate change and
related risk assessment for various economic sectors, the
social sphere and the environment (Section 3). It also
provides an overview of relevant international, national
and regional studies in this field.
The study emphasizes those priority sectors of the
regional economy that require practical implementation
of specific adaptation measures (Section 5) and measures
for GHG emission reduction (Section 6). Priority
actions and projects for this purpose and for sustainable
development of Murmansk oblast are formulated and
scientifically justified.
The planning approach suggested here is unique,
since proposals for development of a regional climate
strategy take account both of recommendations on
adaptation to climate change and measures for reduction
of GHG emission (Section 7). This integrated approach
should lower decision-making costs in the future.
The study also breaks new ground by its regional
focus. Until now, such studies have only been produced
at a national scale.
Work on the study came up against a number of gaps
in data and knowledge, especially at the regional level,
which limited scale of the study. These gaps indicate
that further, more detailed investigations are required.
Knowledge gaps and proposals for further research are
described in detail in Section 8.
Leading Russian experts, who took part in the
preparation of this study, include representatives of
federal government, academic circles, non-governmental
and international organizations. Extensive use was made
of scientific publications by Russian and foreign authors,
official documents, proceedings of the conference on
adaptation held in Murmansk in May 2008, as well as
reports by various international organizations, primarily
the UNDP policy guidelines, «Adaptation policy
frameworks for climate change» [43].
The authors and co-ordinators of this study would
like to thank Anatoly Semenov, Head of Murmansk
Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental
Monitoring (part of Roshydromet) and Svetlana Touinova,
researcher of the Economic Policy Department at the
Economics Institute within the Kola Scientific Centre
of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for making available
the unique data on Murmansk oblast that were utilized
in the study. We would also like to thank the reviewer
of the study, Alexey Konovalov, for his encouraging and
useful remarks.
3
2. Мurmansk oblast: Natural,
Climatic and Socio-Economic Features
1. The Russian Arctic
4
The Arctic is the Earth’s northern polar region.
The offshore Arctic consists of the Arctic Ocean and
its seas (the Greenland, Barents, Kara, Laptev, East
Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort seas), as well as Baffin
Bay, Foxe Basin, straits and gulfs of the Canadian Arctic
archipelago, northern parts of the Pacific and Atlantic
Oceans. Arctic landmasses consists of the Canadian
Arctic Archipelago, Greenland, Spitsbergen, Franz Josef
Land, Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya, New Siberian
islands and Wrangel Island, and the northern coasts of
the mainland of Eurasia and North America. [23]
The Arctic has no generally accepted bounds. But
the Arctic Circle (66°33'N) is generally used as a line to
mark the Arctic region. Using this definition, total area
of the Arctic is 21 million km 2. Sometimes the southern
border of the Arctic zone is mapped using an isotherm
of +10 °C for the warmest month (excluding districts
where average annual temperature is above 0 °С).
Russia, the USA (Alaska), Canada, Norway, Sweden,
Finland, Iceland, Denmark (Greenland) all have a part of
their territories located in the Arctic.
The State Commission on Issues of the Arctic,
attached to the Council of Ministers of the USSR,
ruled on April 22, 1989 that the following territories
should be included in the Arctic Zone of the Russian
Federation: the entire territories of the Nenets,
Yamalo-Nenets, Taymyrsky (Dolgano-Nenets), and
Chukotka autonomous okrugs (districts), and part of the
territories of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Krasnoyarsk
Krai (territory), Arkhangelsk and Murmansk oblasts
(provinces), as well as islands located in the Russian
Arctic, and internal waters, seas, continental shelf and
the exclusive economic zone of the Russian Federation.
Nearly a third of the total area of the Arctic pertains
to Russia. [16] A more precise southern border of the
Arctic zone is to be defined by a Decree of the Russian
President, «On the southern border of the Arctic zone of
the Russian Federation», which is being drafted by the
Ministry for Regional Development (Minregion) jointly
with other interested parties in federal and regional
government. [88]
Compared with the Arctic zones of other countries,
the Russian Arctic is characterized by higher population
density and greater development of its economic
resources. The Russian Arctic population is only 1.4% of
the country’s total population, but the region’s output
represents nearly 11% of Russian national income and
22% of Russian exports. [14]
Future socio-economic development of the Arctic
zone is the subject of much discussion at present.
Most prospects are connected with natural resource
exploitation (mainly bio-resources and minerals)
and utilization of the region’s potential for transit
transportation.
Sustainable development of the Russian Arctic
depends on two interrelated strategies: one for districts
that are rich in natural resources and the other for
districts where economic (industrial) development
is already advanced. The interests and prospects of
indigenous peoples need to be considered in both
alternatives. The destabilizing effect of regional
climate change on modern extraction sectors, on the
transport infrastructure, which serves them, and on the
traditional economy of indigenous peoples needs to be
taken into account in the medium and long term.
Murmansk oblast was established on May 28, 1938.
It is located in the northern part of European Russia and
occupies the Kola Peninsula and adjacent land to the west
and south-west. The region covers an area of 144 900 km2
(0.86% of the area of Russia), with maximum distance of
400 km from north to south and 500 km from east to west.
The region is bounded in the north and north-east by the
Barents Sea, and in the east and south by the White Sea.
Murmansk oblast has a coastline of more than 200 km.
Nearly all of the territory of Murmansk oblast falls
within the Arctic Circle and is part of the Arctic region.
The oblast is incorporated into the North-West federal
okrug (district) and borders the Republic of Karelia in
the south. The western side of Murmansk oblast has
borders with Norway and Finland.
Fig. 2.1 Location of Murmansk oblast in relation
to other regions of the Russian Federation [70]
Fig.1.1 The Arctic region [69]
There are five districts (administrative subdivisions) in the oblast: Kovdorsky, Kolsky, Lovozersky,
Pechengsky, and Tersky districts. The oblast has six
cities with affiliated territories: Apatity, Kandalaksha,
Kirovsk, Monchegorsk, Olenegorsk, and Polyarnye
Zori. The region also has seven closed administrative
territorial formations: Severomorsk, Polyarny, Skalisty
(centred on the town of Gadzhievo), Zaozersk,
Snezhnegorsk, Ostrovnoy, and Vidyaevo.
Population in 2007 was 850 900. [16]
The polar climate in Murmansk oblast is rendered
milder by influence of a branch of the warm NorthAtlantic stream (Gulf Stream), and the region is subject
to abrupt changes of weather. This unpredictability is
increasing as the global climate become more variable,
and extreme weather events have become more frequent
and more intense. Average temperature in January
ranges from -8 °С (in the north) down to -13 °С (in the
centre of the region), while average July temperatures
range from +8 °С to +14 °С.
Strongest winds are experienced along the coastline
where the city of Murmansk is located. Annual average
wind velocity exceeds 7 m/s, with maximum wind speed
of 40 m/s, and more than 40 m/s on capes and islands.
Murmansk oblast is extremely rich in mineral
resources. 64 of the elements in the periodic table
have been discovered in industrial quantities, and over
30 of them are being extracted by mining companies
at present. The list of valuable minerals includes
nickel, copper, phosphorus, iron, platinum, titanium,
aluminium, and zirconium ores and other rare metals,
as well as mica rocks and construction materials. These
were recently complemented by oil & gas resources,
discovered on the shelf of the Barents and Pechora
Seas, within the economic zone of Murmansk oblast.
Three gas fields (Murmanskoye, Severo-Kildinskoye,
Loudlovskoye) and two gas condensate fields
(Shtokman and Ledovoye) are located in the Barents
Sea. The Shtokman gas-condensate field, which was
discovered in 1988, is particularly promising and its
development has been given top priority (Figure 2.2).
Gazprom says that explored reserves at the Shtokman
gas-field are at least 3.7 billion m 3 of gas and over 31
million tonnes of gas condensate.
The region is covered by a patchwork of lakes,
more than a hundred thousand in total. The largest
are Imandra Lake (816 km 2), Umbozero (313 km 2) and
Lovozero (200 km 2). There are also a number of large
artificial reservoirs: Verkhnetoulomskoye (745 km 2),
Knyazhegubskoye (606 km 2) and Serebryanskoye
(231 km 2).
There are about twenty thousand rivers in the
region. Many of them have cataracts, offering much
energy potential (11.7 billion kWh). [44] Cascade power
generating stations have been built on the rivers Paz,
Touloma, Niva, Kovda, Voron’ya and Teriberka. Each
station has a water reservoir to regulate flow. River and
5
lake water in Murmansk oblast has low mineral content
and is used to supply towns, villages and industrial sites
in the region.
The region is rich in fresh-water and marine
bioresources. The White Sea and Barents Sea provide
feedstock for local fisheries and processing plants.
Forest cover is limited by harsh climate and
vegetative conditions, and poor-quality, frigid soils.
Less than 60% of the region is covered by forest.
Primary forests, little affected by anthropogenic
impact, are about half of the total.
Murmansk oblast is home to 270 species of birds
and 32 mammal species. Most beasts of prey in the
Kola Peninsula belong to northern-taiga species,
although tundra species are also represented.
Economic geography of Murmansk oblast is more
favourable than that of other Russian Arctic regions.
The Barents Sea is ice-free thanks to the warm Gulf
Stream and its coastline is suitable for harbours,
there are significant mineral and biological resources,
Russia’s main economic and political centres are
within reach, and the oblast has international borders.
These features have been decisive for socio-economic
development of the region. Economic geography has
determined main economic specialisations, which
include natural resource exploitation, a role as
transport nexus, and military facilities.
aluminium, gallium, rare-earth and rare alkaline
metals. The region is the world’s only source of
baddeleyite, and is second-placed in Russia by
reserves and long-term extraction of copper-nickel
ores. Overall, non-ferrous metallurgy accounts for
more than 30% of total volume of industrial production
in Murmansk oblast.
Development of the region as an administrative
unit was largely due to its convenient transport
location, and transport is still of key importance for
the regional economy. Murmansk is Russia’s biggest
ice-free port beyond the Arctic Circle, earning it
the title of Russia’s northern gateway. It is the first
transit point for the Northern Sea Route (NSR),
which links the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean,
offering a passage way from East to West. The NSR
offers the only transport access to natural resources
of the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East, which are
destined to become the main raw-material sources of
the planet in the 21 st century, according to forecasts.
The NSR has strategic significance for the Russian
economy and has played the key role in large-scale
economic development of Russia’s northern and
Arctic regions.
In any case, economic development will lead
to greater energy demand and therefore raise
GHG emissions in Murmansk oblast. Hence the
importance in future development of the regional
economy of modern, environmentally sound, lowcarbon approaches, which do not increase impacts on
climate.
Growing interest of the international community in
the Arctic region and its resource potential suggest a
more important role for Murmansk oblast in the future.
As well as becoming a major centre for extraction,
mica, tantalum
nickel
aluminum and ceramic raw
materials
Industrial production is dominated by mining,
metallurgy, energy and fisheries. In 2006 Murmansk
oblast accounted for 100% of Russia’s apatite and
nepheline concentrate production, 16.1% of marketed
fishery products (including canned fish), 18.9% of
the fish catch, 9.8% of useable iron ore, and 1.8% of
Russian power generation (Figure 2.3).
6
Results of the 2002 population census show less
than 2000 representatives of indigenous peoples
living in Murmansk oblast. They included 1769 Saami,
163 Nenets, and 63 from other ethnic groups. Measures
in place at regional level for support of indigenous
peoples are inadequate: they are underfinanced and
incapable of solving existing problems.
processing and transportation of fuel and energy
resources to Asia, Europe and the USA, the region
also has much potential for research, innovation and
tourism. Sustainable development of these economic
sectors depends on taking proper account of midand long-term climate change and timely adaptation
measures in order to use any benefits from forecasted
changes as efficiently as possible and to minimize
possible negative consequences.
apatite concentrate
Murmansk has ranked in the the top-ten Russian
regions by Gross Regional Product (GRP) per capita
in recent years, and ranks second in the North-West
federal okrug by industrial production per capita.
[17] GRP structure is dominated by transport and
industry (importance of agriculture in the regional
economy is limited by climate).
Mines in Murmansk oblast are among the world’s
main sources of phosphate raw materials (apatite
concentrate) for production of mineral fertilisers.
Apatite-nepheline ores also contain significant
quantities of phosphorus, fluorine, strontium,
Despite its huge economic potential, Murmansk
oblast is losing its population faster than any other
region of the Russian Arctic. The population declined
by 90 200 people in 2000-2007 to reach a level of
850 900 by the start of 2008. The share of people
below working age (children and teenagers under 16)
is falling, while the share of people above working
age (men older than 59 and women older than 54)
increased from 8.6% to 13.6% in 1989-2003. Since the
elderly are among groups most at risk from climate
change, this demographic trend is very important for
design of adaptation measures.
cobalt
copper
ferrum
Fig.2.2 The Shtokman field will be the resource base for
Russian gas exports to the Atlantic basin markets [76]
Fig. 2.3 The share of Murmansk oblast in national production
of metallurgic sector, 2006 [71]
7
3. Climate Change and its Impacts on the
Arctic Region and Murmansk oblast
3.1 Current climate change
3.1.1 The Arctic region
8
Climate change is particularly noticeable in the Arctic
as its climate is much dependent on supplies of heat and
moisture from other warmer parts of the planet, which are
increasing as a result of global warming.
The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC [6] provides
climate monitoring data in the Arctic region for the last
century. Increase of surface air temperature, shrinkage and
shorter duration of sea ice, contraction of the ice sheet and
thawing of permafrost have been registered, as well as some
changes in ecosystems. These global assessments are given
a detailed regional insight in research findings published by
Roshydromet in 2007-2008.
Air temperature. Monitoring data show that air
temperature in the Arctic has been increasing almost
twice as fast as the average Earth temperature over the
last century. Warming in the Arctic is most noticeable
during the winter. Since the 1980s, temperature
during the cold part of the year across most of the
Arctic zone has been growing by approximately 1 °С
per decade. Roshydromet data for 2007 indicate the
warmest year in the region for the whole period of
observation since 1921. In 2008 annual average air
temperature in the polar region was 1.4 °С above the
average for the observation period , [50] making 2008
the seventh warmest year in the observation period. Air
temperature deviations from normal were 1.2-1.6 °С in
2008.
Precipitation. The amount of precipitation in the
Arctic has risen by 8% on average during the last century,
particularly in the form of rain, with maximum increase
during the fall and winter seasons. However, precipitation
trends demonstrate climate change to a lesser extent than
trends in temperature. [50]
Run-off. Discharge of rivers into the ocean has
increased across most of the Arctic, and the maximum
spring run-off is now observed at earlier dates. [6]
Snow cover. The area of snow cover has reduced by
approximately 10% over the last 30 years. [6]
Ice sheet on lakes and rivers. The frozen season has
shortened due to later freezing and earlier break-up of
river and lake ice. The change is between one and three
weeks in some Arctic regions. [6]
Glaciers and sea ice. Sea ice is the most discernible
indicator of climate change in the Arctic. Ice reduction
in the Arctic region has been ongoing since the late
19 th century and became more intensive from the late
1960s.
Satellite observations of Arctic ice prove substantial
contraction of the ice sheet over the last 30 years
(by 15-20%). Satellite data indicate that average
annual area of Arctic ice has been shrinking by 2.7%
per decade on average. Figures for ice coverage in the
summer are particularly telling: total area of sea ice
in September has declined by 7.4% during the last
10 years, and absolute minimum extent of the ice
sheet for the whole satellite observation period (since
1979) was observed in 2007, when its area shrank to
4.3 million km 2. [18] Shrinkage of the summer ice
sheet along the Northern Sea Route is a part of this
process.
Average thickness of sea ice in the Arctic basin is
also diminishing. This is mainly due to reduction in the
area covered by longstanding ice, and to a lesser degree
due to reduction of its thickness. So older, longstanding
ice is gradually being substituted by thinner, first-year
ice. The area covered by old ice has shrunk by several
times in recent years (Fig. 3.1).
Sea level. Observations since 1961 show increase in
average temperature of the world ocean to a depth of up
to 3000 meters. Rise in sea levels is due to water warming
as well as accelerated melting of continental glaciers. The
global ocean level and Arctic sea level have risen by 10-20
cm over the last 100 years. [6]
Permafrost. Over 90% of the Russian Arctic is located
in the permafrost zone. Changing climate conditions have
increased temperatures in the permafrost layer, causing
deeper seasonal thawing. Measurements by experts
from the Earth Cryosphere Institute at the Northern
Department of the RAS [47] found that melt depth
increased by average 20 cm between 1956 and 1990 at 31
stations where observations were carried out.
However, unlike sea ice, glaciers and ice shields that
interact directly with the atmosphere, permafrost is
«protected» by an organic stratum of soil and vegetation.
In some instances climate warming causes vegetation
to grow faster and soil organics to accumulate more
intensively. As a result the permafrost layer beneath
the protection stratum does not melt, but grows. So
contrary processes are often at work in close vicinity in
the permafrost zone. [42]
Extreme weather events. Roshydromet statistics
recorded an increase during the last decade in the number
of extreme climate phenomena (spring floods, other
floods, avalanches, mudflows, hurricanes, heavy showers,
extreme fire danger, etc.) and more frequent unfavourable
and abrupt weather changes in Russia (Fig.3.2). The
annual number of such events more than doubled from
1991 till 2008. Heavy snowfalls, extreme frosts, hurricane
winds, and increased fire danger represent the biggest
threats for the Arctic region.
UN experts have estimated that damage to the world
economy from extreme hydrometeorological events
represent up to 70% of total losses from natural disasters
and catastrophes [18]. World Bank estimates suggest that
hydrometeorological impacts cause 30-60 billion roubles
of damage annually in Russia. [57]
Fig.3.1 Dynamics of ice thickness in Arctic seas
(data for February 1998 and 2008). [73]
(green – first-year ice; orange – old ice; blue – ice free)
Melting of Arctic ice accelerates the warming process
due to positive feedback: contraction of the ice sheet
lowers albedo (reflection capacity) of the surface, since
the dark ocean takes up heat (absorbs solar radiation) to
a greater extent than light-coloured ice.
Continental glaciers in the Arctic are diminishing
together with sea ice. Average retreat of the fringe of the
Pavlov Glacier in 2005-2006 was 130 m, and maximum
retreat of glacier fringes was 370 m. [73]
Adaptation measures could considerably reduce such
losses.
3.1.2 Murmansk oblast
Air temperature. A number of studies in the late
1990s concluded that changes of annual average air
temperature in the Kola Peninsula were not considerable.
For instance, a monograph, «The Climate of Russia»,
[60] notes that the late 20th century saw warming in all
Russian regions, except for the Kola Peninsula.
1
The following seasonal divisions are typical for the Kola Peninsula:
November-March – winter; April, May – spring; June-August – summer;
September, October – autumn.
Fig.3.2 Number of hydrometeorological hazards that caused losses to the
Russian economy, 1991-2008. [18]
Nevertheless, there has been a trend towards higher
temperatures in Murmansk oblast over recent years,
particularly in the winter. According to an Assessment
Report by Roshydromet [18], average rate of thermal
change of surface air in the Kola Peninsula during
1976-2006 was 0.6 °С per decade. Winter temperatures
have changed most (by 0.8-1.2 °С per 10 years) 1 while the
change in summer temperatures has been less marked
(0.6-0.8 °С per 10 years). These findings are supported
by data from Roshydromet’s Murmansk Department
for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
(Murmansk UGMS) (Fig.3.3) [55].
Fig.3.3. Geographical distribution of the linear trend in average air
temperature anomalies during winter (left) and summer (right)
in Murmansk oblast, 1976-2007 [55]
During 1976-2007, the most intensive average annual
temperature growth was recorded in the west and
south of the Kola Peninsula (0.7-0.8 °C over a decade).
Less intensive warming has been recorded along the
Murmansk coastline and the eastern coast of the White
Sea (0.5-0.6 °C over a decade). [55]
Data collected by Murmansk UGMS from 1961 to 2007
points clearly to increasing annual duration of the period
with average daily air temperature above 8 °С. [55]
Sea ice. Reduction of the total ice surface in the
Barents Sea has been ongoing over recent years. Ice
coverage declined by average 3.7% per decade in
1961-2007 (Fig. 3.5).
9
Dates
Year
Dates of a spring flood beginning
Dates of spring flood extremes (maximum level of river run-off during a spring
Fig. 3.4 Dates of beginning and peaks of floods, Kola river [83]
3.2 Climate change forecasts by the
mid-21st century
The Roshydromet Assessment Report [18] includes
results of model simulations (for the whole range of
models) for dynamics of main meteorological indicators
by the mid-21 st century (2040-2060) throughout Russia,
including the Arctic zone.
Temperature
Ice-cover (%)
Wind. Wind patterns in Murmansk oblast have
changed over recent years, and there has been an
overall trend towards stronger winds. As the Central
Geophysical Observatory (GGO) has pointed out,
this will increase wind-energy potential in the
region. [57]
Precipitation. Change of precipitation patterns on
the Kola Peninsula has been season-specific, with a
modest increase of precipitation in the winter period
and a less significant decrease during the summer.
Run-off. Murmansk UGMS experts have established
impact of observed climate changes in the Peninsula on
hydrological conditions of local rivers: the start and peak of
spring high water now occurs earlier than previously. (Fig.3.4)
So long-term observations provide evidence of rising
mean annual temperatures in the north-west sector of
the Russian Arctic. It has also be found that warming
during the winter period is more marked than in the
summer period. Warming is accompanied by contraction
of the ice sheet in Arctic seas, and average thickness of
sea ice in the Arctic basin is diminishing due to gradual
replacement of long established ice by thinner firstyear ice. These and other changes, including greater
run-off from rivers, heavier precipitation, rising sea
level, and increase in the number of extreme weather
events, are also typical for Murmansk oblast.
Year
Ice-cover, %
10
Annual temperature, degrees Celcius
Fig. 3.5 Change of mean annual air temperature at Murmansk station and
of ice coverage in the Barents Sea (5-year moving averages) [83]
Unfortunately, most models to date do not provide
sufficient regional detail to enable comprehensive
climate change forecasts for specific territories.
Assessments given in the Assessment Report reflect
a general trend for Russia’s Arctic areas. Forecasts
for Murmansk oblast are simulated on the basis of
observable and expected trends for regional distribution
of various parameters of climate changeability in the
Arctic.
Average annual temperature of surface air in Arctic
regions, including Murmansk oblast, will continue
rising until the middle of the 21 st century. Temperature
increase in the winter will be most marked. The period
of constant snow cover will decrease, precipitation
will increase (especially in the winter), as will runoff from rivers, and levels and temperature of water
bodies. Duration of ice cover will shorten by the
mid-century, and degradation of the permafrost will
speed up. Amounts of ice in Arctic seas will reduce
due to diminishing extent of sea ice and thinning
of old ice. Rising sea level and increased frequency
and strength of hazardous weather events are to be
expected. However, these forecasts carry a large
degree of uncertainty, reflecting the insufficiently
dense monitoring network, comparatively short
series of long-term hydrometeorological instrumental
records (regular monitoring in the Arctic only began
in the second half of the 20 th century) and limitations
of spatial resolution in climate models. Additional
research into climate change in specific regions of
the Russian Arctic is required, and work should be
carried out in the near future on regionalization of
global climate change models in order to obtain more
detailed regional forecasts.
be viewed as positive, include reduction of heating
costs, greater potential for agriculture and forestry,
development of shipping via the Northern Sea Route,
as well as improved access to Arctic regions, and
expansion of mining and fisheries. (See Table 3.1).
It is important to note that climate change
in the Russian Arctic is aggravated by additional
anthropogenic factors, including chemical pollution,
over-fishing, land-use changes, population growth, and
changes in way of life and economic structure. These
factors tend to reinforce negative impacts of climate
change.
Both positive and negative impacts of climate
change require in-depth study, and a categorical
assessment of its consequences is problematic, since
the consequences may be favourable for one economic
sector, but unfavourable for others. For instance, ice
melt opens up the NSR, but it reduces the habitat
of polar bears. It is extremely important to develop
research into climate risk assessment and potential
benefits for various economic sectors of the Arctic
region. Results of such research can be used in
preparation of mid-term and long-term development
programmes, minimizing their negative effects and
maximizing the gains.
3.3 Impacts of climate change on
ecosystems, economy and population of
the Arctic and Murmansk oblast
The effects of warming in the Arctic are already
numerous and evident. Current climate changes
are having considerable impact on coastal zones,
biodiversity of animals and plants, human health and
welfare, and on the economy and infrastructure of
Arctic territories.
Discernible and forecasted climate changes will have
both unfavourable and favourable consequences for the
natural environment, economy, and human population
of the Arctic region in general, and Murmansk oblast
in particular. Main negative aspects of climate
change are impacts on ecosystems, environment, and
infrastructure (particularly in coastal areas), public
health, and traditional ways of life. Effects, which may
Fig.3.6 (left) Expected changes in surface air temperature (°С)
in winter (a) and in summer (b) by mid-21st century.
1980-1999 period was taken as a baseline [18]
Fig.3.7 (right) Expected changes in precipitation pattern
in winter (a) and in summer (b) by mid-21st century, %.
1980-1999 period was taken as a baseline [18]
11
Table 3.1
Assessment of climate change impacts on the environment, ecosystems,
economy and population in Russian Arctic regions
Impact area
Negative impacts
Positive impacts
Impact area
Environment
Reduction of biodiversity, changes in species of freshwater fish;
Appearance of exotic intrusive species and intensification of
competition among species;
Expansion of insect pests and pathogenic organisms;
Diminishing habitat of polar bears, seals, some bird species;
Disruption of food stock and traditional migratory routes of reindeer
and other animal species.
Possible increase in diversity
of local fish species
Increased number and intensity of extreme weather events;
Increased risk of fires;
Increased concentrations of polluting substances in the atmosphere,
seas and inland water bodies;
Intensification of dust storms at mining slag heaps;
Increased methane emission due to permafrost thawing
Infrastructure
Threat to buildings and the transportation system, including trunk
pipelines, due to soil movement in the permafrost zone;
Disruption to infrastructure in coastal areas due to storms, coastal
erosion and rising sea levels.
Timber industry
Increased risk of forest fires;
Spread of pests.
Expansion of forest area
Agriculture
Appearance of new pest species;
Risks related to more intense weather anomalies
Lengthening of the vegetation
period and higher yields of
some crops;
Opportunities for cultivating
new crops.
Tourism
Possible shortening of the winter tourism period due to higher
temperatures during the winter; Increase of avalanches and other
extreme weather events
New opportunities for summer
tourism, including marine
tourism.
Possible effects on the economy
12
Positive impacts
Possible effects on ecosystems and environment
Possible effects on ecosystems and environment
Ecosystems
Negative impacts
Possible effects on the human population
Sea fisheries
Reduced productivity and stocks of some fish species and other
marine life
Increased productivity and
stocks of some fish species.
Migration of species from more
southerly regions.
Natural resource
extraction
Stronger winds and problems caused by iceberg fragments from
disintegrating ice formations
Easier access to new mineral
deposits
Energy
Increase of loading and number of accidents due to abrupt changes of
temperature and increased frequency of extreme weather events
Reduced heating costs;
Increased hydro- and windpower potential
Transportation
Reduced transport access to distant areas along winter roads using icecovered river-beds, due to change in freeze and melt times;
Probability of difficult ice conditions in some sea channels, limiting
use of the Northern Sea Route without recourse to ice-breakers;
Disruption of transport communications due to more frequent and
intensive occurrence of extreme weather events.
Development of navigation
along the Northern Sea Route
may have substantial impact
on the regional economy.
Access to a larger part of Arctic
coastal waters during the
summer period
Human health
Increased occurrence of weather-related health conditions as a
consequence of weather instability;
Increased respiratory morbidity due to higher temperature and
humidity;
Diet modifications due to changes in available and useable sources of
food;
Increased psychological and social burdens related to environmental
and lifestyle changes;
Spread of bacteria and viruses, greater incidence of infectious
diseases;
Changed conditions of access to drinking water, deterioration in air
quality, problems with sewage systems
Traditional lifestyle of indigenous
peoples
Climate change will have negative impact on traditional occupations
of indigenous peoples (hunting, fishing, and deer herding);
Greater access to new mineral deposits may cause a population inflow,
reducing areas inhabited by indigenous people and modifying their
traditional life-style;
Increase of the morbidity rate due to changes of diet and life-style.
Conditions of life on the
southern border of the Arctic
will become less arduous;
Milder weather conditions
in the winter may reduce
the death rate during winter
months.
13
4. Solutions: Mitigating Climate Change and
Adapting to the Impacts
4.1 Mitigation of climate change
A fundamental conclusion drawn by scientists and already
accepted by politicians is that: in the 21st century climate
change will be directly related to levels of anthropogenic
GHG emissions.
From the very beginning of international negotiations
on climate change, mitigation of climate change impacts by
limitation and reduction of anthropogenic GHG emissions
has been one of the two key tasks within the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the
Kyoto Protocol1. The other key task has been adaptation
to climate change. With regard to GHG emissions, the
focus has been on what countries can do in order to prevent
further growth in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere and resulting irreversible consequences for the
environment, economy and society.
The UNFCCC envisaged that by the early 21st century
industrially developed countries would succeed in cutting
their greenhouse gas emissions to the level of 1990. However,
this goal was not legally binding and most countries were
not prepared to achieve it in practice within such a limited
period of time.
The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, set binding
targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
by industrially developed countries and transition
countries. A 10-year preparatory period was allocated
before implementation of the targets in 2008-2012. This
preparatory period was to be used for development of
national programmes and elaboration of market-based
mechanisms, i.e. joint projects, the Clean Development
Mechanism, systems for internal trading of industrial
emission quotas between companies, such as the EU
Emission Trading Scheme, and the Green Investment
Scheme, which enables projects and programmes for
additional GHG emission reductions to be partly financed
by international trading of quotas.
Completion of international negotiations and adoption
of a new international agreement is expected in December
2009 in Copenhagen. The agreement will define tasks
and obligations of countries after 2012. The negotiations
will focus on possibility of achieving the ambitious, but
extremely important goals of the so-called «low-carbon»
scenario, and, in particular, on achieving 50% GHG emission
reductions by 2050.
14
1
The Russian Federation ratified UNFCCC in 1994 (through the Federal Law
No. 34-FZ, dated November 4, 1994,), and the Kyoto Protocol in 2004 (through
Federal Law No. 128-FZ, dated November 4, 2004.).
By 2006 the international community had reached a
common understanding of the «low-carbon» development
scenario. The scenario is based on a global energy
development path, where «the task of preventing strong
negative impacts of climate change is addressed in full along
with economic development of all countries and elimination
of energy poverty». During 2006-2008 this qualitative
definition received a quantitative description and political
support. This was achieved when the G8 Summit in Germany
affirmed the need to design and implement such a scenario.
Presentation of global development models by
environmental organisations [10], was followed by
presentation of scenarios by the International Energy Agency
and of national scenarios in a number of EU countries,
Norway and Brazil. [37]
The term «low carbon» is in principle close to the
terms «energy efficient» and «energy saving». These three
recognized objectives have been complemented by the
integrating task of solving the climate issue. This integrating
task has introduced additional quantitative and temporal
parameters, as follows:
• reduction of oil and gas consumption due to growth in
prices and limitation of reserves;
• energy security, diversification of energy sources;
• technological advance for future development and
competitiveness;
• the need to tackle climate change.
This amounts to changeover to a new and different
model of low-carbon economic growth, based on other
technologies, and other types of fuel and energy. This will
require radical reconstruction of the whole economic system
and of standards of economic behaviour.
Increase of atmospheric GHG concentrations is
mainly due to СО 2 emissions from combustion of fossil
fuels: coal, oil products and, to a lesser degree, natural
gas. This GHG source is three times greater than
deforestation (mainly in tropical countries), which is the
second biggest cause. The third cause is anthropogenic
emissions of methane, including emissions from animal
husbandry, coal mines, and methane emitted to the
atmosphere during use of natural gas (scheduled and
emergency emissions and leakages of all kinds). Emissions
of nitrous oxide rank fourth as a cause of GHGs. They are
mainly related to application of nitrogen fertilizers and
production of nitric acid and other chemical products.
Finally, the biggest item among emissions from other
sources is cement production.
Efforts to reduce anthropogenic impacts on climate need
to be focused on reduction of СО2 emissions from burning
of fuel by power generators, transport and utilities. These
objectives can be achieved by:
• improvement of energy efficiency;
• development of renewable energy sources, particularly
wind energy;
• rational use of natural gas;
• nuclear power;
• carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The most promising ways of mitigating climate change
are improvement of energy efficiency and development
of renewable energy. The greatest potential for renewable
energy in Arctic regions is from wind power, small-scale
hydropower, use of bio-mass (mainly timber waste), and tide
energy (in some regions), provided that power surpluses
can be transferred to neighbouring regions and countries.
Taking account of the successful experience of Norway in
CCS technology, it would be valuable to explore possibilities
for applying such technology in development of oil & gas
deposits on the shelf of Russia’s Arctic seas.
4.2 Adaptation to climate change
In accordance with the terminology adopted by the
IPCC, adaptation is defined as «adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected climate
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities». This implies that adaptation
measures can be focused both on reduction of climate
risks, and utilization of potential benefits of climate
change. Examples of such activities could be conservation
practices in use of scarce water resources, adaptation of
existing construction norms to take account of ability
of buildings to withstand future climate conditions and
extreme weather phenomena, construction of protective
barriers against floods, raising the level of dams in
response to rising sea levels, development of droughtresistant crops, selection of forest species and forestry
methods that are less vulnerable to hurricanes and fires,
creation of areas and corridors to assist migration of
species, etc. [27]
Several types of adaptation can be distinguished,
including anticipatory and planned adaptation. Adaptation
deserves to be called «anticipatory» if it is carried out
before climate change effects are observed. It is also called
«preventive» adaptation. «Planned» adaptation is «the
result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness
that the conditions have changed or are about to change and
that action is required to return, to maintain or achieve a
desired state»1.
1
Translator’s note: the definition in English is cited based on the Glossary
of terms used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, retrieved from:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_glossary.htm
Timely action can bring a significant economic benefit
and minimize threats to ecosystems, human health, economic
development, property and infrastructure.
Adaptation strategies should include scientific assessment
of risks, vulnerability and potential benefits of expected
climate changes, taking account of natural, geographical,
economic, social, and other characteristics of a particular region
or economic sector. It is also important to carry out economic
assessment of costs and benefits of proposed adaptation
measures, in order to secure the maximum effect per unit of
invested funds and to built an optimum strategy for adaptation
to climate change in economic decision-making.
Effects of future climate change will differ from region
to region. According to projections, impacts from increase
of global average temperature will create benefits in some
places and costs in others. Locations and population
groups, which are subject to high impact and (or) have
low adaptation capacities (these include inter alia polar
regions), will experience costs related to climate change
that are significantly higher than the overall costs at a
global level. According to the IPCC report [6], global
average losses assuming 4°С warming may reach 1-5% of
GDP annually. It is important to emphasize the uncertainty
attaching to such assessments, but the range of published
facts generally indicates that net value of damage from
climate change will probably be quite significant and will
increase over time.
The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC [6] notes
that adaptation measures entail real costs, so that adaptation
initiatives are often made part of broader sectoral programmes,
such as water resource planning, coastal consolidation, etc.,
rather than being undertaken independently. This helps to
obtain additional benefits from implementation of adaptation
measures and thus reduces net adaptation costs. Integration
of adaptation measures into regional sectoral development
strategies is seen as most efficient.
Economic advisability of timely adaptation measures
is emphasized in the conclusions of the second working
group of the IPCC, «Climate Change: Impact, Adaptation
and Vulnerability» (2007) [6], as well as in the report by Sir
Nicholas Stern, «The Economics of Climate Change» (2005)
[56, 58]. Cost estimates for design of adaptation measures to
prevent negative effects from rising sea-level, floods, as well
as transition to more sustainable alternative energy sources,
confirm that the benefit of adopting intelligent solutions can
be very significant. At the same time, co-benefits of GHG
reduction measures could compensate a considerable part of
mitigation and adaptation costs.
The prevalent approach to implementation of adaptation
measures can be conditionally divided into two main parts:
- regional (territories, districts, whole countries, and
intergovernmental regional approaches, for instance in
the EU); and
15
- sectoral (at the level of economic sectors: agriculture,
infrastructure, health, etc., or at the level of target groups:
indigenous population, elderly people, etc.).
Adaptation may include both national and regional
strategies as well as practical steps at a community
or individual level. A sample outline for allocation of
responsibilities between various decision-making levels in
this field is provided below.
National level
• Improving response to natural disasters and emergency
situations. Frequency and intensity of large-scale natural
incidents is bound to increase. Precautionary measures
to combat disease, and preparedness for and efficient
actions to deal with the consequences of such incidents
need to become government priorities. Rapid response
mechanisms for climate change need to be supported
by a natural disaster prevention strategy at national
level. Existing risk management instruments should be
reinforced and new instruments should be developed.
Such instruments include mapping of vulnerable zones
in accordance with impact types, design of methods and
models, assessment and prediction of hazards, assessment
of health, environmental, economic and social impacts,
and satellite and terrestrial observations.
• Elaboration of national adaptation strategies. The role
of government is to develop comprehensive adaptation
strategies based on existing parameters and socioeconomic development trends in various regions and
economic sectors.
• Transfer of knowledge and experience of development
of efficient adaptation strategies and policy at regional
and local level. Information exchange on applicable
adaptation measures can much reduce implementation/
development costs in various regions, municipalities and
districts.
• International co-operation, know-how and knowledge
exchange in the field of climate risk assessment,
vulnerability assessment for the economy and society,
design of adaptation measures, as well as co-operation in
natural disaster risk management.
Regional level
Adaptation to climate change is an important task for
regional authorities. Elaboration and timely implementation
of adaptation measures is crucial for regional sustainable
development in the context of climate change. The adaptation
component should become an integral part of regional socioeconomic development strategies, as well as development
strategies for individual economic sectors of regions.
16
A first step would be to develop new requirements for
construction, land use and change of land-use, which take
account of the climate change factor. Special manuals could
be developed, detailed studies of particular climate impacts
could be carried out, and immediate response activities could
be proposed. It is important to realise that disadvantaged
population groups will be most vulnerable to climate change
impacts. So social aspects of the adaptation issue should
be treated carefully, including threats to employment and
impact on living standards and living conditions.
5. Possible Measures for Climate Change
Adaptation in Murmansk oblast
Local level
Many decisions that directly or indirectly concern the
issue of adaptation to climate change are taken at a local
level. This is the level, at which detailed knowledge on
environmental and living conditions is accumulated. It
is therefore natural that a key role in the process should
devolve to local authorities. Behavioural changes in society
and within local government structures are to a large extent
dependent on the degree, to which they are property
informed. Stakeholders may not yet fully grasp the scale and
intensity of the changes, which are going to have to be made,
and the effects on their lives and practices. The content of
plans for territorial arrangements and land-use will need to be
analyzed in partnership with economic actors. This may, for
instance, entail decisions not to proceed with construction of
buildings and settlements on territories that are prone to soil
erosion or are located in zones subject to avalanche hazard.
Heterogeneity of climate change effects in different
regions of the planet means that adaptation measures are
most needed at regional and local levels, taking account
of specific natural and socio-economic characteristics. So
regional and local authorities, as well as planners, should play
a key role in developing adaptation solutions. At the same
time, formulation of strategies for adaptation to climate
change is a complex task and its efficient implementation
requires co-ordinated actions at various administrative levels.
There needs to be maximum involvement by representatives
of business, academia, civil society and the general public to
support action by decision-makers.
A bank of knowledge and experience of adaptation
measures in various regions of the world has already been
accumulated, thanks in part to intensive international cooperation. The experience of Finland, Canada, and Denmark
in climate change adaptation is of practical interest for
development of a regional climate change adaptation
strategy for Murmansk oblast. Approaches to choice and
implementation of adaptation measures in Finland are of
particular interest, due to similarities between natural and
climatic conditions and structure of the economy in Finland
and in the Kola Peninsula.
However, there is still an overall shortage of knowledge
concerning adaptation strategies in polar regions. This is
despite the fact that polar regions must expect some of the
most dramatic climate change impacts on the planet. The
importance of filling these knowledge gaps is therefore selfevident.
The fact of climate change and increased
frequency of climatic anomalies in Murmansk oblast
is undisputed. Comprehensive measures are needed
for adaptation of the region and its economic sectors
to the impacts of climate change and for integration of
such measures into mid- and long-term socio-economic
development strategies.
Based on analysis of expected climate change and
socio-economic characteristics of Murmansk oblast,
the present Study makes a number of recommendations
for climate change adaptation in the most important
and most vulnerable sectors of the regional economy.
Greatest practical benefits can be obtained from
climate risk assessment and development of relevant
adaptation measures in the mining sector, transport
(particularly shipping), energy, fishing, agriculture,
forestry, and tourism. These sectors are of utmost
importance for future regional development and
they are dependent on climate conditions and their
changeability. Adaptation of coastal territories and of
the region’s population (particularly most vulnerable
groups) requires special attention.
5.2 Energy sector
5.1 Oil & gas extraction on the
continental shelf
• Diversification of energy sources, development of the
renewable energy sector;
Contraction of sea ice will probably ease access
to oil & gas resources under the continental shelf in
the Arctic Sea. However, the sea will become rougher
and there will be a greater threat from icebergs due to
destruction of glaciers.
• Improvement of the system for efficient delivery of
weather and climate information to users.
Possible adaptation measures:
• Revising construction norms and regulations for
maritime structures in the shelf zone taking account
of observed and forecast climate changes;
• Taking account of change in wave heights, and of
iceberg and ice conditions in design of hydraulic
installations, oil platforms and vessels, and in order to
ensure safety on shipping lanes;
• Establishing dedicated monitoring services to monitor
iceberg and ice-related risks in the Arctic Ocean;
• Improving
system;
the
hydrometeorological
forecasting
• Improving the system for efficient delivery of weather
and climate information to users.
Climate change entails tougher operating conditions
for energy sector facilities. Ageing and depreciation
of main assets, limited capacity of the power grid and
insufficient grid capacity reserves in Murmansk oblast
will only aggravate climate risks.
On the other hand, changing climate conditions
will create new opportunities by increasing hydro- and
wind-power potential, and enabling use of solar and
photovoltaic energy.
Possible adaptation measures:
• Revision of energy consumption norms during the
winter and of the system for calculating required fuel
reserves to reflect the shorter period when heating is
necessary;
• Improvement of insulation in residential buildings,
offices, and industrial facilities;
• Replacement of outdated equipment with modern
equipment, which is more resistant to abrupt
hydrometeorological changes and is more energy
efficient;
• Improvement in quality and predictive power of
weather forecasting;
5.3 Development of shipping
Forecasted contraction of area and thickness
of Arctic ice will increase the ice-free navigation
period and enable use of vessels with reduced or
zero ice-reinforcement (i.e. lighter vessels which
are cheaper to build and operate). The navigation
period will be longer, average speed of vessels will
increase, shipping distances will be reduced and
there will be a greater number of viable trajectories
along the Northern Sea Route.
Possible adaptation measures:
• Improvements to quality of monitoring and forecasting
of climate changes and change of weather conditions in
Arctic seas; establishing efficient local hydrometeorological
safeguards systems;
• Establishing dedicated monitoring services to monitor
iceberg and ice-related risks in the Arctic Ocean;
17
• Revising and tightening of existing construction standards
and regulations for operation of maritime installations to
take account of expected changes of main meteorological
parameters;
• Improvement to the forecasting system for development
of shipping in the Russian Arctic zone.
Probable consequences of global climate changes for maritime
development are being taken into account in drafting of
the «Maritime Development Strategy for the Russian
Federation up to 2020 and in the Longer Term» and in the
draft implementation plan for the Strategy.
5.4 Fishing industry
Targeted investments and legislative initiatives could do
much to modernize the fishing industry in Murmansk oblast,
and to enable efficient and sustainable coastal fishing that
would take account of forecasted climate change and avoid
damage to marine biodiversity.
Possible adaptation measures:
• Installing a sustainable management system for the regional
fishing industry, taking account of ongoing processes in
ecosystems (including climate change) and the need to
avoid depletion of the sea’s natural resources;
• Preparing the regional fishing industry for probable
changes in the range of food-fish species and other
marine bioresources, as well as alterations in catch
quantities of various species;
• Upgrading fishing-industry facilities;
• Developing efficient technologies for new products at
regional fishing-industry facilities;
• Training of highly qualified engineers;
• Measures to combat illegal fishing.
5.5 Land and river transport
Principal measures for land transport during
the initial stages of climate change include new
approaches in management of ice roads, duration
of their use, and vehicle design. In the longer term
it will be necessary to develop new routes and
transportation methods.
Greater use of waterways is a promising adaptation
strategy in areas with ice-free inland rivers and water
spaces. Construction of all-weather roads may be the only
alternative for access to some isolated locations.
5.6 Infrastructure: coastal areas
18
Coastal areas of Murmansk oblast are particularly
vulnerable to climate change effects due to density of
population and industrial infrastructure, their importance
for the regional economy, time required for implementation
of relevant adaptation measures, and various institutional,
financial and technological barriers. For these reasons,
coastal areas should be prioritized in development of
adaptation strategies.
Possible adaptation measures:
• Construction of dams, mounds, walls, and barriers; use of
soft structures (refilling of beaches, restoration of dunes
and creation of waterlogged zones) to protect coastal zones
from flooding, rising sea levels and erosion;
• Transfer of potentially vulnerable infrastructure sites from
coastal areas to inland districts;
• Due account of climate change in planning of new
construction in coastal areas;
• Development of the continental shelf, including
construction of off-shore wind-parks.
5.7 Infrastructure: thawing of
permafrost
Due account of climate change is vital in design of
technical standards and regulations, and for purposes of new
construction. It is also important to assess geocryological risk
(risk of damage to buildings from changes in the permafrost
layer) for existing infrastructure sites. If the level of risk is
found to be high, it may be necessary to carry out rebuilding
or move the sites out of the risk zone.
New technological solutions have been developed in recent
years, which reduce the impact of permafrost thawing on
infrastructure. For instance, there have been improvements to
the design of piles, which are used in permafrost zones. [42]
Possible adaptation measures:
• Preparation and introduction of new technical
standards and regulations that take account of climate
change;
• Accounting for climate change when building new
infrastructure facilities;
• Assessment of geocryological risk with respect to
existing infrastructure sites;
• Renovation or transfer of sites from risk zones in case
of major geocryological risk;
• Development and application of more climate-resilient
construction technologies.
5.8 Agriculture and forestry
Climate change should be incorporated into plans for regional
agricultural production, including review and increase of crop
species. It will be important to develop weather and climate
monitoring, improve quality of agrometeorological forecasts,
and introduce crop species that are more climate-resilient.
The principle challenge is to reduce risks to agriculture from
increased frequency of extreme weather events.
Projects for utilisation of biomass (mainly agricultural
and forestry waste) to generate heat and power for
villages, particularly in distant areas of Murmansk
oblast, achieve the twin goals of adaptation and climate
change mitigation. They also have concomitant economic
benefits (improved energy security, reduction of electric
power costs) and social benefits (job creation).
5.9 Extreme weather events
5.11 Environmental conditions
Possible adaptation measures:
• Improvement of the system for monitoring of extreme
weather events and delivery of data on risks to relevant
institutions;
• Improvement in quality of long-term, mid-term, and shortterm forecasts of extreme weather events in the region;
• More frequent (higher resolution) collection and
processing of data on potential sources of extreme weather
conditions;
• Improving the system for delivery of weather and climate
data to the user, including the early warning system;
• Development of research, technology and the equipment
base for monitoring and forecasting of extreme events;
• Correction of action plans for early warning and response
to extreme weather events, taking account of observed
and forecast climate change in the region;
• Improvement of equipment and technology for protection
of people and regions in case of emergency, and for response
to such emergencies;
• Adaptation of existing construction standards to ensure
resilience of infrastructure to new climate threats;
• Training and additional training of experts in the field of
monitoring and forecasting of extreme natural events;
• Development of an insurance system for weather and
climate risks.
The Murmansk department of the Central Directorate
of the Federal Ministry for Emergencies is working on
forecasting and preventive action for extreme weather
events. Regional government has already implemented
a number of target programmes for lowering risks and
mitigating consequences of such events.
Current economic mechanisms for managing ecological
safety need to be adjusted to cope with consequences of
irregular climate events. High priority should be given
to: research, which assesses vulnerability of ecosystems,
human populations and the economy; environmental
audit of environmental protection facilities in Murmansk
oblast (to gauge their capacity and efficiency in conditions
of climate change); and drafting a list of urgent tasks
for improving environmental security. These measures
should be included in the regional environmental
programme. [40]
5.10 Tourism
Murmansk is one of the most promising regions in
the Russian Arctic for development of tourism. Higher
temperatures in winter and spring, and greater frequency
of unfavourable weather events might reduce potential
for winter tourism, although there is potential for
changeover from a sports orientation to culture and sightseeing, particular in districts where the northern lights
are most often visible.
The longer summer season and expansion of shipping
will help to develop summer recreational activities, including
Arctic cruises and research expeditions. Such a trend is already
evident in Arctic regions of Canada and the USA. [6]
Murmansk region could become a destination for
ecotourism, which has great potential in economically
underdeveloped areas for adaptation of small indigenous
peoples, whose traditional way of life is threatened by
climate change. Showpiece «low-carbon» sites, including
renewables, could attract visitors from other regions and
countries of the Arctic Circle.
5.12 Human health
A Regional Action Plan is needed for reduction of negative
impact of climate change on human health. The Plan should
include:
• Support and strengthening of the regional climate
change assessment system;
• Intensification of epidemiological
activities in the region;
assessment
• Development of prevention programmes to minimize
unfavourable consequences of climate change for
human health;
• Tighter supervision of sanitation in regional population
centres, which are most prone to climate change;
• Development of recommendations and action plans
to protect people from consequences of emergency
situations arising from climate change (natural
disasters, extreme weather conditions, outbreaks of
infectious diseases), including early warning plans,
and information on emergency medical assistance,
shelter and evacuation plans;
• Training for health professionals on issues of climate
change impact on human health in Arctic regions.
Involvement of regional research and higher education
institutions;
• Involvement of civil servants in raising the level of
public awareness concerning impact of climate change
on human health;
• Extension of fundamental and applied research into
impacts of global climate change on human health in
the Russian Arctic;
• Increased international co-operation for assessment
of the impact of climate change on health of the
Arctic population, using the experience and potential
of Arctic countries, the Arctic Council and its Working
Groups, the Arctic Forum, European Commission,
and programmes and agencies of the UN and World
Bank. [34]
19
5.13 Small indigenous peoples
Impact of climate change on indigenous peoples is
intensified by stress factors, migration to small distant
settlements, increase of employment on a contractual
basis and settled employment, all tending to undermine
adaptation capacity of indigenous peoples and increase
their vulnerability.
Possible adaptation measures:
• State support for traditional economic activities of
indigenous communities in Murmansk oblast (deerherding, fishing, etc.);
• Developing legal foundations to protect the rights of
indigenous communities in Murmansk oblast;
• Establishing nature reserves with special governance
status, securing access of indigenous peoples to
natural resources;
• Creating incentives for more active involvement of
indigenous people in decision-making processes at all
levels (from deer farms to executive government);
• Training and educating indigenous peoples in new
skills, which increase their competitiveness on the
regional labour market;
other Russian regions, including Arctic regions. Success
of the measures would be largely dependent on the
- development of regional and local hydrometeorological
monitoring systems, including collection, transmission,
processing and distribution of data;
- support for research into regional climate and adaptation
Table 7.1
(financial support for such research, development of
Possible steps for climate change mitigation in Murmansk oblast
climate risk forecasting and assessment, improvement
- development of economic studies, including cost-
• Information provision on climate change and its effects
and on possible adaptation measures for indigenous
communities.
Potential for
Murmansk oblast
1
Energy efficiency
improvement
Very high
order to secure maximum efficiency per invested unit
2
Development of wind power
Very high
and drafting of an optimum strategy for adaptation to
3
Development of hydropower
Very high
4
Development of solar power
Limited
5
Development of geothermal
power
Low
6
Utilisation of tidal and wave
energy
High
7
Development of bioenergy
High
8
Increased share of natural gas
in the fuel balance
High
9
Development of nuclear
power
High
10
Implementation of СО2
capture and storage
technologies
High in the
long-term
11
Implementation of Joint
Implementation projects
High
12
Implementation of projects as
part of the Green Investment
Scheme
High
benefit analysis of proposed adaptation measures in
climate change in order to facilitate decision making;
- mandatory accounting of possible impacts of global
- dissemination of information to the public on the issue
• Guaranteed and uninterrupted heat and power supply,
development of renewable energy sources in areas
inhabited by small indigenous peoples;
Steps
of technical facilities);
• Improving health care, developing and implementing
modern health techniques for communities in remote
districts and settlements;
• Developing social infrastructure;
The table below gives a general qualitative assessment
of possible steps to mitigate climate change in Murmansk
oblast. The scheme is also applicable in principal for other
regions of Russia, including Arctic regions.
processes in response to climate change impacts
climate change and adaptation measures within long-
• Demographic policy that supports birth-rate and
reduces death-rate among indigenous peoples;
6. Prospects for Climate Change
Mitigation in Murmansk oblast
following:
• Modernizing the activities of small indigenous
peoples and re-orientation from climate-dependant
employment (deer-herding, fishing, hunting) to more
sustainable forms of business (eco-tourism, etc.);
• Work to assess the epidemiological situation in
districts inhabited by small indigenous peoples;
20
The adaptation measures proposed here for Murmansk
oblast could be applied, with certain amendments, in
term national and regional conceptual, strategic and
programme design;
of climate change, its potential impacts and possible
adaptation measures;
- raising awareness and the level of understanding
among decision-makers in organizations not directly
related to environmental protection;
- improving co-operation between agencies and various
stakeholders (decision-makers, business, academia,
civil society, the general public) at all levels;
- improving international co-operation in climate
change research; making use of best available foreign
experience in development of adaptation measures.
Nearly all of the strategies, which are internationally
recognized as promising for mitigation of climate change, are
capable of being implemented in Murmansk oblast.
The 12 steps listed above can be grouped into sections.
Energy efficiency improvement and energy saving should
be given top priority. They can achieve the largest effects in
reduction of GHG emission and they have crucial importance
for economic development of the region in general, since
survival under the severe climate conditions of the Kola
Peninsula is largely dependent on sufficient and timely
delivery of energy resources.
Reflecting the importance of the energy efficiency issue
for successful economic development, the President of the
Russian Federation has declared a strategic goal of reducing
energy consumption per unit of GDP by 40% by 2020.
The Russian government has also declared strategic goals
for development of renewable energy sources. The objective
is to increase the share of renewables in the national energy
balance to 4.5% by 2020 (their current share is about 1%).
These objectives correspond to tasks 2-7 in our regional
matrix.
Tasks 11 and 12 are not distinct activities; they are
important tools of the Kyoto Protocol, which can be applied
for implementation of any of the tasks listed 1-10.
Further important actions are:
- to implement a policy for energy efficiency improvement in
the regional economy, including incentives for installation
of up-to-date equipment and technologies, radical
reduction of losses in power distribution and development
of power supply facilities;
- to improve efficiency of heating systems by changeover to
new energy sources (updated and cleaner coal-fired power
stations, biomass), improve insulation of district heating
networks and buildings, organize installation of metering
and control equipment for consumers;
- promote renewable energy sources (wind power, tides,
biofuel etc.).
21
7. Integrated Climate Strategies in Russian
Arctic Regions
22
International experience and practice of other
countries in the Arctic region have given the issue of
adaptation to climate change equal importance with
the issue of climate change mitigation. These two tasks
have to be tackled in parallel. Human populations can
lower their impact on climate by reducing anthropogenic
GHG emissions, thereby averting many irreversible
and even catastrophic consequences. Techniques must
be found for forecasting inevitable processes and for
adapting the economy and society to their effects in
a timely fashion. According to the IPCC assessment,
«effective climate policy aimed at reducing the risks of
climate change to natural and human systems involves
a portfolio of diverse adaptation and mitigation actions
adaptation and mitigation». [6]
Ideally, measures and programmes for adaptation
to climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions at regional and municipal levels need to be
united into comprehensive climate strategies. This
will avoid overlapping and inefficient use of funds. For
instance, improvement of sea forecasting is beneficial
both for shipping and fisheries; and adaptation of
indigenous peoples (maintaining deer-herding as an
economic activity) is an aspect of the development of
animal husbandry in the region.
Integrated projects, which both reduce GHG
emissions and help to reduce climate risk, are also
attractive. IPCC assessment found that such synergies
can be best obtained in the fields of «use of biomass,
energy use in buildings, and forestry». [6]
Projects aimed at use of biomass (primarily
agricultural and forestry waste) for heat and electricity
generation in villages, particularly in remote areas,
offer an example of combining adaptation projects
with climate change mitigation projects. They also
provide certain economic co-benefits (improvement
of energy security, reduced power costs) and social
benefits (employment opportunities). Introduction of
new energy efficient technologies and review of energy
consumption norms in buildings could also contribute
both to adaptation and mitigation.
Another promising direction for integrated climate
projects is creation of ecovillages and development
of ecotourism in northern areas. This could facilitate
conversion of undeveloped land and economically
underdeveloped areas of the region into recreational
sites, and assist in adaptation of small indigenous
populations, whose traditional life-style and economic
activities are threatened by climate changes.
Development of showpiece «low-carbon» facilities,
including renewable energy sites, could create a tourist
attraction for visitors from other regions and countries
of the Arctic zone.
All of these projects are suitable for development
in Arctic regions in general, and in Murmansk oblast
in particular.
Mid- and long-term climate change forecasts suggest
that future sustainable development of Russian Arctic
regions and their economies will depend on integrated
and dynamic planning. It will be extremely important
to take account of the «climate factor» when preparing
development plans for Arctic territories and economic
sectors, and to elaborate comprehensive regional
climate strategies. Such strategies should incorporate
measures for mitigation of climate change, adaptation
to observed or forecasted impacts, and major scientific
and technological inputs, including development of
new «climate-resilient» and low-carbon technologies,
climate research, climate risk assessment, efficiency
assessment for various response measures, and
introduction of financial and institutional mechanisms
for implementation of these tasks.
Design and timely adoption of integrated climate
strategies is crucial for sustainable development of
Arctic regions in conditions of climate change. Such
strategies can reduce negative impact of climate
change, and also deliver additional benefits for
economic development, employment, and health, as
well as speeding up implementation of sustainable,
energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies in
the economy of the Arctic region, strengthening
infrastructure and reducing electricity prices.
Comprehensive climate strategies should be an
integral part of regional plans for socio-economic
development in the future. Some activities related to
climate change can be included in sectoral programmes
of Arctic regions (for instance, establishment of a climate
monitoring system, targeted work with indigenous
populations and other particularly vulnerable groups,
etc.). However, the greater part of mitigation and
adaptation measures touch on several different areas,
so that intersectoral and interdisciplinary links and
interactions need to be taken into account during
their implementation.
The key role in elaborating integrated climate
strategies should be vested in regional and local
authorities and experts responsible for territorial
planning. But their elaboration also requires coordination
between
decision-makers,
business
representatives, academia, civil society and the
general public at various administrative levels: local,
regional and federal. Benefits of mutual co-operation
between stakeholders to obtain long-term positive
outcomes – and not merely short-term gains – need
to be understood. Co-operation and dialogue become
crucial terms in the process of studying climate change
and managing climate risks.
Raising awareness and understanding among
stakeholders of climate change and its effects on human
life, environment and society, is the most important
factor for successful implementation of climate-related
programmes and measures. So unbiased presentation
of climate change issues – by popularizing scientific
findings in the field via mass media, fostering an
environmentally concerned culture, encouraging
energy and resource-saving behaviour, and informing
the public how to behave in various critical situations
– should also become an important element of regional
climate strategy.
Adoption of a National Strategy/Programme/
Action Plan for climate change is an important step
for encouragement of activities related to climate
change. Such a document would operate as a further
development of the Russian Climate Doctrine and
would define territories, economic sectors and
population groups, which are particularly vulnerable
to climate change, as well as proposing first steps
for addressing the challenges. The document could
serve as a model for regions and deliver the necessary
political message on importance of the climate change
factor for administrative and economic decisions. For
the time being, unfortunately, there are no regional/
federal development programmes that distinctly
incorporate the climate factor (through inclusion of
GHG emission reduction activities or climate change
adaptation measures). There are a few examples
of development programmes that in some way
consider the climate issue, though not as a primary
factor (notably, «The Concept for long-term socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation
until 2020»).
It is a common delusion of many decision-makers
that climate aspects are only an environmental issue,
unconnected with practical economic priorities and
actions. Many people still fail to recognize that tackling
climate change is a «win-win» approach: mitigation
and adaptation measures concurrently promote
improvement of energy efficiency, development of
renewable energy and other favourable outcomes.
There is hope that this will change, due to
necessity of meeting national objectives, set by the
President of the Russian Federation, for reduction of
GHG emissions by 10-15% by 2020 in comparison with
1990 and for energy-efficiency improvement of the
Russian economy by 40% in 2020 compared with 2007,
and also due to adoption of the Climate Doctrine of
the Russian Federation.
Recommendations on further climate policy
actions for the Russian Arctic have been developed
(Table 7.1). These recommendations are divided into
immediate (implementation during 2009-2012), midterm (2013-2020) and long-term (up to 2050).
Most of the proposed short-term (immediate)
measures do not require large investments, are
realistic, and can be «incorporated» into existing or
draft regional socio-economic development strategies
without major cost. Larger financial investments and
broader involvement at federal, regional and local level
will be required in order to implement further actions,
although development of science and technology should
help to reduce the costs and shorten implementation
periods.
Awareness-raising and greater co-operation with
other Arctic regions of Russia and foreign countries
will have a key role at all stages. Many approaches
to climate change mitigation and adaptation have
been successfully tested in other countries. The
experience of Finland, Canada, and Denmark are of
practical interest for Murmansk oblast. Approaches
to design and implementation of adaptation measures
in Finland deserve special attention, due to similar
natural and climatic conditions, similarities between
economic structure in Finland and the Kola Peninsula,
and traditionally close economic relations between
the two regions. The experience and potential of
such international organizations as the UNDP, UNEP,
OECD, World Bank and others is also available to be
drawn upon.
23
Table 7.1
Climate policy priorities in Arctic regions of Russia
Activities
Executing agency
Costs
Short-term objectives (up to 2012)
Activities
Executing agency
Costs
Mid-term objectives (from 2013 to 2020)
Development of a National Strategy/Programme/Action Plan as
a follow-up to the Climate Doctrine
Federal executive authorities
Low
Implementation of comprehensive climate strategies for
Russian Arctic regions
Regional authorities, business, donors
High
Establishment in every region of the Russian Arctic of a
special body responsible for climate change, clean energy, and
development of climate policy (creation of such bodies is also
desirable at municipal level)
Regional and municipal authorities
Low
Development and implementation of a portfolio of climate
projects in Arctic regions
Federal executive authorities, regional
authorities, donors
High
Regional authorities, donors with
participation of academia, nongovernmental organisations
Low
Improvement of regional climate forecasts, hydrometeorology
monitoring, and data reliability
Federal executive authorities, regional
authorities
Medium / High
Regional authorities, donors
Medium
Development of risk insurance system against negative effects
of climate change in priority sectors
Public-private partnership with insurance
companies
Medium
Federal executive authorities, regional
authorities
Medium – High
Development of an insurance system for climate risks in
relation to (а) property; (b) investments; (c) consequences of
natural disasters
Public-private partnership with insurance
companies
Medium
Federal executive authorities
Medium
Development of innovative schemes to finance adaptation to
climate change (for instance, commissions on carbon market
deals);
Federal executive authorities; business
Low
Implementation of large-scale regional programmes for
improvement of energy efficiency
Regional authorities, business, donors
High
Implementation of projects for installation of renewable energy
sources
Federal executive authorities, regional
authorities, business, donors
High
Assessment of perspectives for carbon capture and storage
(CCS) technologies at oil & gas fields on the Russian Arctic
Sea shelf and implementation of pilot projects
Federal executive authorities, business,
with involvement of academia
High
Development of integrated climate strategies for Russia’s
Arctic regions
Regional assessment of economic vulnerability and impacts on
population, including indigenous population
Development of a hydrometeorological monitoring system,
creation of open data bases on climate change
Revision of sectoral regulations (e.g. building norms and
regulations) to take account of climate change
Inventory of anthropogenic GHG emissions and leakages in
Arctic regions, recommendations on immediate measures to
address reduction of GHG emissions
Regional authorities with participation of
academia
Medium
Assessing potential for economically efficient use of renewable
energy sources and feasibility studies for their use
Regional authorities with participation of
academia
Low
Regional and municipal authorities
Low - medium
Energy saving activities
Development of mechanisms for sustainable consumption of
energy resources, including pilot projects in this field
Federal executive authorities, regional
and municipal authorities, business, nongovernmental organizations
Low
Long-term objectives (from 2020 to 2050)
24
Carrying out priority tasks for adaptation and mitigation of
climate change in specific sectors
Regional authorities, business, and donors
Medium
Raising awareness among the general public on climate change
and potential for adaptation and mitigation. Educational
activities for various target groups.
Regional and municipal authorities, nongovernmental organisations and donors
Low
Implementation of the first pilot projects on adaptation and
mitigation of climate change effects in the Arctic regions
Donors with possible contribution from
regional budgets
Medium
Assessment of opportunities for more diverse funding of
priority climate projects and initiatives, development of new
financial instruments
Federal executive authorities, regional and
municipal authorities, business, donors
Low
Establishment of a developed climate risk insurance system
Public-private partnership with insurance
companies
Medium
Creation of additional funding sources for financing of climate
change adaptation and mitigation through introduction of
«adaptation» and «carbon» taxes, charges, and fees
Public-private partnership with insurance
companies
Low
Implementation of a large-scale regional programme for
adaptation to climate change
Federal executive authorities, business,
with involvement of academia
High
Creation of a «zero carbon» area (with zero increase in
emissions) in the Russian Arctic
Regional authorities, business, donors
High
Considerable increase of renewables in the regional energy
balance
Federal executive authorities, regional
authorities, business, donors
High
Introduction of a regional trading scheme for GHG emissions
on a quota basis
Regional authorities, donors, business
Low
Introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of
energy production technology
Federal executive authorities, regional
authorities, business, donors
Very high
25
8. Uncertainties and Knowledge Gaps
26
Findings of this study point to knowledge gaps. Such
gaps can be filled by further research, which should also
help to formulate integrated strategies for mitigation of
climate change and adaptation to its impacts. Some of the
conclusions provided below are in line with main findings
of the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.
1. Indeterminacies in climate change estimates. This
problem needs to be addressed by:
• Development of monitoring systems, increase in
the number of monitoring stations and construction of
a multi-year data base for climate change assessments
and future projections.
• Establishment of a unified on-line open data
base of climate change parameters based on
hydrometeorological observations.
• Promotion of regional climate modelling (elaboration
of regional climate models for the Kola Peninsula).
Detailed assessment of climate change effects will
be impossible without better understanding of the
probability of climate change events on a regional scale.
2. Shortage of economic assessments of climate change,
costs and benefits of adaptation measures and of climate
change mitigation measures. This should be overcome by:
• Inventorization of greenhouse gas emissions in the
region to obtain more detailed information on GHG
emissions from various sources and GHG absorption by
sinks, as well as more accurate assessment of potential
and implementation costs of various measures to reduce
anthropogenic climate load.
• Economic studies for better understanding of
climate change effects, cost of adaptation measures
and their economic benefits (cost-and-benefit
analysis), and limitations on adaptation. According to
the World Bank study (2005), return on investments
in environmental monitoring is estimated at 1:10 in
Russia. It is anticipated that return on the World Bank's
investments of $133 million to finance the Roshydromet
Modernization Project should be 400-800% during the
project implementation period, and economic losses
due to extreme weather events will drop by 8.5%. [98]
• Assessment of co-benefits from implementation of
climate change mitigation and adaptation measures
in different economic sectors, i.e. instances where
measures are economically justified and help to avoid
overlapping and inefficient use of funding.
3. Attention to the climate factor in regional and
sectoral development programmes is fragmentary. Current
practice in Russia, at both federal and regional levels, takes
no account of mitigation of or adaptation to climate change
and the concept of low-carbon territories in regional plans
and socio-economic development programmes. This should
be remedied by:
• Raising awareness among decision-makers of
potential benefits of adaptation and mitigation
measures (through economic assessment of their
efficiency).
• Carrying out research on «climate dependence» of
all major economic sectors in the region, which can
be further used for design of mid-term and long-term
sectoral economic development plans. Such packages of
adaptation measures for each economic sector can be
quickly integrated into development programmes for
the relevant sectors.
• Taking account of business needs and requirements
of specific economic sectors when developing
adaptation and climate change mitigation strategies, in
order to draw their attention to the planning process.
• Assessing interrelation between adaptation to and
mitigation of climate change effects (co-benefits
from implementation of various activities) in order
to maximize the efficiency of measures, which are
implemented.
4. Insufficient co-ordination between academia, business
and authorities. This problem needs to be tackled by:
• Improving
interaction
between
research
institutions that are based in the region and work
on climate change issues. Specifically, this requires
reciprocal information provision by the institutions on
main lines of research and the findings obtained. Such
provision could be via various forums, publications,
and internet news-portals.
• Establishing regular information channels between
academia and decision-makers for information
exchange about research needs and research findings. It
is important that research is of practical value.
• Initiating a permanent expert body in the region
to develop strategies for adaptation to and mitigation
of climate change effects, with involvement by
representatives of expert organizations, decisionmakers, business and the general public.
5. Absence of programmes for adaptation and mitigation
of climate change in the region is evidence of inadequate
awareness among the general public concerning climate
change:
• Many public awareness activities could be
implemented by educational institutions and nongovernmental organizations in the form of educational
programmes and information delivered through the
mass media.
Research, information exchange, and preparatory
activities in domains that are still affected by a substantial
knowledge gap will reduce levels of uncertainty and expand
the knowledge base.
Main Conclusions
Climate changes that have been observed during recent
decades in Arctic regions of Russia, including Murmansk
oblast, will continue until the middle of the 21st century.
The changes includes increase of average annual air
temperature, shortening of the period of uninterrupted
snow cover, increased precipitation (particularly in the
winter), increased run-off, ice melting, degradation
of permafrost, rising sea levels, etc. The observed and
forecasted effects will have both positive and negative
impacts on the environment, population and economy of
the Arctic zone.
The Russian Arctic stands out compared with Arctic
zones of other countries by its denser population and
intensive natural resource development. The Russian
government is paying much attention to future socioeconomic development of the Arctic. Development of
natural resources (primarily bioresources and minerals)
and realization of the transport and transit potential of
the region are among priority objectives.
Growing interest in the Arctic region and its resource
potential from the international community will enhance
the role and importance of Murmansk oblast, since the
region may transform into a major centre for extraction,
processing and transportation of fuel and energy resources
to Asia, Europe and the USA, as well as developing into a
research, innovation and tourist centre.
Sustainable development of these and other economic
sectors depends on taking account of mid- and longterm regional climate change and timely adoption of
adaptation measures to obtain maximum benefits from
the forecasted changes and minimize negative effects.
The biggest potential is from assessment of climate
risks and design of adequate adaptation measures in the
mining sector, transportation (particularly shipping),
energy, infrastructure, fishery, agriculture, forestry, and
tourism, since these sectors play a key role in future
development of Murmansk Oblast and are dependent on
climate and climate change. Particular attention should
be paid to adaptation of coastal areas and of the most
vulnerable social groups.
This study considers possible climate change
adaptation measures for the population and key economic
sectors in Murmansk oblast. Suggested activities are
applicable to other regions of Russia, including Arctic
regions, with certain adjustments. Competent and
timely implementation of these measures could reduce
damage and risk of negative effects, and even bring some
economic benefits from the positive impacts of climate
change.
Development of oil & gas fields on the shelf of the
Barents Sea and forecasted economic growth in Murmansk
oblast will lead to increase of GHG emissions in the
region. So further socio-economic development needs to
be based on adoption of modern low-carbon and climate-
friendly approaches and technologies.
Murmansk oblast has much potential for climate
change mitigation, particularly from improvement of
energy efficiency and energy saving. Implementation of
energy-saving measures has the largest potential for GHG
emission reduction and occupies a key role for overall
development of the regional economy, as severe climate
makes Murmansk oblast critically reliant on adequate
and timely supply of energy resources. The region also
has huge potential for development of renewable energy
sources (wind and tide energy, biofuel etc.).
Mid-term and long-term climate change forecasts
show that comprehensive and dynamic planning will be
needed in order to secure further sustainable development
of Russian Arctic regions and their economy. It will be
extremely important in the future to take account of
the climate factor when planning development of Arctic
territories, and to elaborate integrated regional climate
strategies. Such strategies should include activities for
mitigation of climate change effects, adaptation, and
development of research and technology, as well as design
of financial and institutional mechanisms to ensure
implementation.
Integrated climate strategies need to become
an essential element of regional socio-economic
development planning in the future. Their elaboration
and timely adoption is an important precondition for
sustainable development of Arctic regions in the context
of climate change. In addition to minimizing the negative
impact of observed climate changes, these strategies can
bring additional benefits for economic development,
employment and health, as well as facilitating faster
adoption of more sustainable, energy-efficient and lowcarbon technologies and practices in the Arctic economy,
strengthening infrastructure and reducing prices for
electricity.
There is much scope for integrated projects, whose
implementation would both reduce GHG emissions and
help to lower climate risks. Greatest synergy potential is
from projects that aim to increase use of biomass, create
ecovillages in districts inhabited with small indigenous
groups, and that are focused on energy consumption in
construction and forestry. All such projects are promising
for Arctic territories and for Murmansk oblast, in
particular.
The key role in design of integrated climate strategies
should belong to regional and local authorities and to
planners. But efficient outcomes also require co-ordination
between decision-makers, business representatives,
academia, civil society and the general public at various
administrative levels: local, regional and federal.
Current practice in Russia does not does not take
account of climate change mitigation, let alone adaptation
to climate change, in drafting of plans and socio-economic
27
28
development programmes, either at the federal or
the regional level. This is a major obstacle to practical
application of climate policy and low-carbon approaches
for specific territories.
Scepticism about climate issues and doubts about
reality of the climate change threat are not uncommon
among Russian decision-makers. This is related to
inadequate information on the climate change issue and
lack of a «top-down» signal from federal government to
regions and municipalities.
A common misunderstanding of many political
decision-makers is that climate aspects are only an
environmental issue, unconnected with practical
economic priorities and actions. In the minds of many, it
is not yet recognized that tackling of the climate change
issue is a «win-win» strategy: mitigation and adaptation
measures concurrently promote improvement of energy
efficiency, development of renewable energy and other
valuable activities.
This may change in view of national objectives,
underwritten by the Russian President, to reduce GHG
emissions by 10-15% before 2020 compared with 1990, to
improve energy-efficiency of the Russian economy by 40%
before 2020 compared with 2007, and also due to adoption
of the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation. The
world financial crisis that began in mid-2008 will lead to
amendment of some plans, but the Russian government’s
Antic-risis Programme in 2009 makes improvement
of energy- and resource-efficiency a key aspect of
modernization policy in the immediate future, since new
climate-friendly technologies can help the economy to
meet global energy and climate challenges.
Measures announced by the Russian Government to
date are mainly declaratory, and Russia has not yet has not
tested the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol in
practice. These mechanisms are of limited importance for
development of the low-carbon economy, but may help to
attract investments for energy-efficiency improvements
and energy saving.
Adoption of a National Strategy/Programme/Action Plan
on climate change, as a follow-up to the Russian Climate
Doctrine, would be a significant step for promotion of
climate change activities. The document would identify
territories, economic sectors and population groups that
are particularly vulnerable to climate change and suggest
immediate response activities. It could also serve as a
model for other regions and deliver the necessary political
message on importance of the climate change factor for
administrative and economic decisions. As mentioned
above, issues of GHG emission reduction or restriction
and adaptation to climate change are unfortunately not
reflected in socio-economic development programmes at
federal or regional level at present.
This study presents recommendations for further
climate policy actions in Russian Arctic regions, divided
into immediate (with implementation in 2009-2012),
mid-term (2013-2020), and long-term (until 2050).
Most of the proposed short-term (immediate) measures
do not require large investments, are realistic and
can be incorporated into the existing or draft regional
socio-economic development strategies without major
extra cost. Larger financial investments and broader
involvement of stakeholders at federal, regional and
local level will be required for further actions. However,
advances in science and technology should reduce costs
and shorten their implementation periods.
Climate change effects are not limited by administrative
borders, and it is important that work on climate
strategies should give consideration to intersectoral
and interdisciplinary links, as well as cooperation and
integration between regions, nations, and sectors at all
levels. By working together stakeholders can achieve
positive long-term effects instead of being restricted to
decisions that focus solely on short-term benefits. Cooperation and dialogue become the key concepts in study
of climate change and climate risk management.
Many approaches to climate change mitigation and
adaptation have already been successfully tested in
other countries. Experience from Finland, Canada, and
Denmark is of practical interest for Murmansk oblast.
The choice and implementation of adaptation measures in
Finland is particularly relevant due to similar natural and
climate conditions and similarities of economic structure
in Finland and the Kola Peninsula. The experience and
potential of such international organizations as UNDP,
UNEP, OECD, and the World Bank will also be valuable.
In view of all that has been said, it is extremely
important to press ahead with pilot infrastructure
and social projects in Murmansk oblast for design of
sectoral climate strategies with involvement of private
businesses and regional authorities. Design of integrated
climate programmes is particularly promising for
development of maritime transport, the housing and
utilities sector (introduction of new, sustainable, energy
efficient technologies and renewable energy sources,
review of energy consumption norms to reflect higher
temperatures), agriculture and forestry (projects that
focus on use of agricultural and forestry waste to generate
heat and energy in rural districts), and also for addressing
social tasks, including those related to climate impacts
on public health and indigenous peoples. The outcome
of such pilot projects could further be disseminated to
other Arctic territories of the Russian Federation.
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