Download Contribution Of UK Aviation To Climate Change

Contribution Of UK Aviation To Climate Change
Misleading the public
The aviation industry and its supporters persistently assert that aviation only accounts for a small
proportion of CO2 emissions. For example:
“Air transport accounts for a small part of global CO2 emissions – 2%.” IATA (1)
“...aviation only accounts for about 3% of global CO2 emissions currently.” BATA (2)
“UK aviation accounts for approximately 0.12% of global CO2.” BAA (3)
“You could stop ALL flying today and you would only cut global emissions by 3%”.
‘Cheapflights’(4)
“UN scientists from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimate aviation's
contribution to global carbon emissions to be just 2%.” IATA (5)
Such statements are misleading. Sometimes they refer to a report by the IPCC in 1990 (since when
UK aviation CO2 emissions have doubled). Sometimes they refer to a percentage of global
emissions when the proper comparison should be with total UK emissions. None of them mention
that aircraft emissions in the upper atmosphere are especially harmful. None point out that
emissions are rising far faster than all other sources.
The facts - present
Aviation is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions. Emissions from UK aviation have more
than doubled since 1990 while emissions from all other UK activities have fallen by about 9%. (6)
In terms of aviation emissions, after the US, the UK is the world’s biggest culprit.
The 2004 White Paper on the Future of Transport states that: If UK aviation is defined as all
domestic services plus all international departures from the UK, then the aviation sector currently
contributes about 5.5% of the UK’s CO2 emissions. (7) Since then emissions will have increased to
about 6%.
More harmful in upper atmosphere
Aircraft emissions are more harmful than those from other sources. This is because the non-CO2
greenhouse gases emitted by aircraft have an impact mainly in the upper atmosphere.
In the past a multiplication factor of 2.7 has been used; that is aviation emissions have an impact 2.7
times as great as their CO2 emissions alone. There has always been scientific uncertainty, but most
scientists agree that the factor is somewhere between 2 and 4.
If the factor of 2.7 is used, aviation contributes nearly 12% of climate changing emissions.
The future
By 2020 aviation emissions are due to increase by 50% (7). By 2040 – even after allowing for (an
optimistic) 50% improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency – aviation emissions are due to be double
the present level. (7)
By 2050 every other industry is due to cut emissions by 60%. The Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research has calculated that the UK’s objective of stabilising at an atmospheric
concentration of 550 ppm would mean that aviation would account for 50% of all UK emissions.
But - If the UK government follows the scientific consensus that a 450ppm stabilisation level is
required, then the aviation sector would exceed the carbon target for all sectors by 2050.’ (8)
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IATA (International Air Transport Association) press release, 25 April 2006
British Air Transport Association. Written evidence House of Lords, 2006
BAA. Gatwick Airport Interim Master Plan, October 2006
‘Cheapflights’ press release; 7 Nov 06
IATA; Guardian letter 22 Nov 06.
Predict and Decide. Oxford University Environmental Change Institute, October 2006
Department for Transport 2004.
Aviation and Global Warming. Department for Transport. January 2004
Decarbonising the UK. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. September 2005