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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
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Essential Facts on Climate, Biodiversity and Livelihoods – a policy relevant toolkit
OR
Essential Facts on Climate and Sustainable Development – science facts for policy makers
Introduction
This booklet is designed for policy makers to support them in making the case to politicians,
business, NGOs, the public and other stakeholders to step up the level of action on climate
change to realise the multiple benefits for the environment, people and the economy this
challenge has to offer. The booklet draws upon published information and data that
exemplifies the interdependencies between climate change and sustainable development
and works to make some robust examples of these interdependencies across the globe and
provide evidence how policies designed with this synergy at the forefront are more likely to
realise benefits for different sectors. Action on climate change is no longer negotiable. Action
that also benefits biodiversity and human livelihoods is. This booklet will provide you with
sound evidence on the interdependencies between the climate and the three pillars of
sustainable development: ecosystems; human livelihoods and the economy. In addressing
climate change there are opportunities for ourselves, others, the environment and our
collective future.
Booklet Scope
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This booklet is international in scope and includes examples from a diverse range of
ecosystems geographic areas. Where possible there are UK examples to
complement international examples.
The booklet is broken into multiple sections around climate science, climate policy,
ecosystems and human security. Each section includes links to further information
and keywords to facilitate easier searching.
The climate science section provides an overview of the key facts around climate
science (mainly drawing upon the IPCC). The climate policy section examines
climate mitigation and adaptation in the broad sense and begins to focus on the
interlinkages with biodiversity and human livelihoods.
The ecosystems examined are marine and coastal (oceans, coral reefs, mangroves),
inland waters (wetlands, riverine system); soils and peatlands (including agricultural
soils); forests (temperate and tropical); drylands (desert/savannah); mountains; polar;
agriculture
Each ecosystem is examined as follows:
o The role of that ecosystem in mitigating climate change (GHG storage,
sequestration);
o Current and future impacts of climate change on the ecosystem and its
potential for adaptation;
o The role the ecosystem plays in human livelihoods;
o Future climate scenarios and the impact on ecosystems and humans.
Human security is a separate section which focuses on the link between human
security, environmental services and biodiversity.
Key resources will be included in a box at end of each section. Each fact will be
referenced (either hyperlink or footnote)
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Marine and Coastal
Oceans
General
Ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a role in redistributing heat around
the globe, and can dramatically affect climate.
Over 90 per cent of the planet’s living biomass—the weight of life—is found in the oceans.
UNEP, 2006
Role in the Climate System
The global oceans are the largest natural reservoir for carbon dioxide, absorbing
approximately one-third of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities
each year. NOAA, 20051
In the past 200 years the oceans have absorbed approximately half of the CO2 produced by
fossil fuel burning and cement production. Royal Society 20052
Over the next millennium, oceans are expected to absorb approximately 90% of the CO2
emitted to the atmosphere. NOAA, 20053
Impacts and Vulnerability
Warmer temperatures, weaker circulation, and different stratification of the ocean will have
impacts on marine life and ecosystems, which in turn could affect the ocean’s ability to store
carbon. How these changes may occur is not clear at this point, however, and may vary from
region to region. Wood Holes Oceanographic Institute, 20064
The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean changes the chemistry of the oceans and
can potentially have significant impacts on the biological systems. NOAA, 20055
Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 has already resulted in a pH reduction of
approximately 0.1 unit in surface waters. NOAA, 20056
If current trends in carbon dioxide emissions continue, the ocean will acidify to an extent and
at rates that have not occurred for tens of millions of years. NOAA, 20057
Ocean acidification will have major impacts on corals and other marine organisms that build
calcium carbonate shells and skeletons. This will have negative implications higher up the
food web. NOAA, 20058
Links to Human Livelihoods
1
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/spot_gcc.html
http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/displaypagedoc.asp?id=13539
3
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/spot_gcc.html
4
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12457&tid=282&cid=17726
5
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/spot_gcc.html
6
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/spot_gcc.html
7
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/spot_gcc.html
8
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/spot_gcc.html
2
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Coupled with overfishing of stocks, ocean acidification may impact on human livelihoods and
access to resources.
Climate impacts such as warmer temperatures, increased freshwater input and increased pH
will have an adverse effect on the world’s fisheries which will in turn threaten the livelihoods
of coastal and island populations that rely on fish as the main source of protein.
Oceanographer, 20069
70 per cent of the world's commercial marine fish stocks are fully exploited, overfished or
depleted - impacting on jobs and opportunities. DFID 200210
One billion people depend primarily on fish for protein. World Resources Institute, 2002.
Ocean temperatures can strongly influence the resurgence of major human infectious
diseases on land. For example, ENSO-driven climate variability has been linked to large
epidemics of malaria on the Indian subcontinent and South America, and epidemics in East
Africa of Rift Valley Fever. Oceanographer, 200611
Malnutrition remains one of the largest health crises worldwide; according to the WHO,
approximately 800 million people are undernourished. About 1 billion people rely on fish as
their main source of animal proteins. About 20% of the world's population derives at least
20% of its animal protein intake from fish, and some small island states depend on fish
almost exclusively. UN, 200212
The recent slowing of the North Atlantic Gulf Stream may affect the abundance and
seasonality of plankton that are a major source of food for many fish larvae. Declining larval
fish populations will affect the capacity of overexploited fish stocks to recover.
Oceanographer, 200613
Warm water and increased nitrogen levels can favor blooms of certain marine algae which
can release toxins into the marine environment. These blooms can cause acute poisoning in
humans through consumption of contaminated seafood, as well as extensive die-offs of fish
and of marine mammals and birds that depend on the marine food web. Oceanographer,
200614
Sea level rise:
http://assets.panda.org/downloads/climatechange16ppfinallo.pdf
Key Resources :
9
http://tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/19_2/19.2_patz_et_al.pdf
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/povertyandenvironment.pdf
11
http://tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/19_2/19.2_patz_et_al.pdf
12
http://www.oceansatlas.com/servlet/CDSServlet?status=ND0yMjM0JmN0bl9pbmZvX3ZpZXdfc2l6ZT1jdG5faW5mb192aWV3
X2Z1bGwmNj1lbiYzMz0qJjM3PWtvcw~~
13
http://tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/19_2/19.2_patz_et_al.pdf
14
http://tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/19_2/19.2_patz_et_al.pdf
10
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Coral Reefs
General
20% of coral reefs - among the richest ecosystems in the world - have been destroyed in the
last decades of the twentieth century and one third of the remainder face collapse over the
next 10 to 20 years – MA, 2005 & CBD, 2005
Role in the Climate System
Role of reefs as carbon sinks
Impacts and Vulnerability
Role of coral reefs in buffering against storms
Requirements of these reefs in terms of resilience, connectivity to buffer
Links to Human Livelihoods
Human livelihoods and reefs (e.g. fishing, tourism)
Future impacts of climate change on reefs
Review documents on shared drive
Key Resources :
Mangroves
General
Role in the Climate System
Role of mangroves as carbon sinks
Impacts and Vulnerability
Role of mangroves in buffering against storms
Requirements of mangroves in terms of resilience, connectivity to buffer
Coastal mangroves, a vital nursery habitat for countless species, are vulnerable, with 35%
already gone – MA, 2005
Areas with healthy mangrove or tree cover were significantly less likely to have experienced
major damage in the 2004 tsunami – GBO2, 2006
Links to Human Livelihoods
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In Sri Lanka, the impacts of the 2004 tsunami were significantly reduced in areas with
healthy coral reefs and mangroves – UNEP, 2005
Asian nations hit by the tsunami disaster have launched programmes to plant mangroves
along their coasts as a natural buffer against similar waves in the future. Indonesia has
earmarked 600,000 hectares of mangrove for revitalisation, and in the northern province of
Aceh, where the tsunami killed more than 110,000 people, plans include the replanting of
at least 30,000 hectares with the trees as a buffer against future waves – FCO, UNEP, Defra
Key Resources :
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Forests – tropical and temperate
Much more to add
General
Biodiversity and forests – ecosystem services globally
Role in the Climate System
Role of forests in carbon cycle (sink / source). Carbon value
13 million hectares of the world's forests are lost due to deforestation every year, which, in
turn accounts for up to 20 percent of the global greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to
global warming. The world's forests and forest soils store more than one trillion tons of
carbon – twice the amount found in the atmosphere. FAO, 2006
Stern 18 % GHG
Although the albedo-temperature effect is most famous in colder regions of Earth, because
more snow falls there, it is more stronger in tropical regions because there is more subnlight.
When Brazillian ranchers have cut down dar, tropical rainforests and replaced them with
even darker soil to grow crops, the average temperature of the area increased up to to 3 °C
year-round. (Wikipedia, albedo – find better resource)
Impacts and Vulnerability
Future impacts of climate change on forests (die back)
Human mitigation activities and impact on forests (e.g. biofuels)
Rates of deforestation
What this equates to in CO2
Links to Human Livelihoods
350 million people directly depend on forests for survival. World Resources, World
Resources Institute, 2002
Over the last 20 years, 300 million hectares of tropical forests - an area larger than the size
of India - have been cleared for plantations, agriculture, pasture, mining, or urban
development. Over the next 25 years, a further 250-300 million hectares are likely to be lost
in this way. Forests for Life: Working to Protect, Manage & Restore the World's Forests,
2002
Forests are home to at least 80 percent of the world’s remaining terrestrial biodiversity and
are a major carbon sink that regulates the global climate – World Bank, 2006
In some forest-rich countries, corruption fuelled by profits from illegal logging has grown so
much that it is undermining the rule of law, democracy and respect for human rights.
Estimates suggest that illegal logging costs timber-producing countries as much as US$14
billion a year in lost revenues (World Bank, 2002), which could otherwise be spent on
healthcare, education and other public services.
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
More than 1.6 billion people, according to World Bank estimates, depend on forests for their
livelihoods. The forest product industry is a source of economic growth and employment,
with global forest products traded internationally in the order of $270 billion.
About 4.6 billion people depend for all or some of their water on supplies from forest
systems. MA, 2005
The loss of revenue due to illegal logging directly costs governments $5 billion and the
economies of producing economies $10 billion annually – World Bank, 2006
Key Resources :
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Mountains
General
Mountain ecosystems are vital to numerous life processes upon which human health and
livelihoods depend. IUCN, 200615
Role in the Climate System
Uplands in the UK as important sinks of CO2 and other GHG
Impacts and Vulnerability
SNIFFER information
MONARCH montane species most vulnerable to losing potential climate space
One study examined in the IPCC 4AR suggested that up to 60% of European Alpine species
are at risk of extinction due to climate change. IPCC, 200716
Mountains cover about 20 percent of the earth’s surface, and support an extremely high
level of biodiversity. Given that mountains are separated from each other by lowland areas,
they act as “ecological islands” supporting numerous endemic species and half of the world’s
biodiversity hotspots. IUCN, 200617
In response to increasing temperatures, lower elevation habitats and their species are
moving into alpine habitats in the higher zones. IUCN, 200618
The melting glaciers, shifting natural habitats and migrating species are a stark reminder of
the vulnerability of mountains to temperature and precipitation changes. Human activities
have substantially fragmented mountain ecosystems, leading to habitat loss and threatening
the survival of species. Mountain snow melts earlier and faster, changing the patterns of
water distribution. IUCN, 200619
Since 1850, half the volume of Europe's Alpine glaciers has disappeared and it is predicted
that by the end of the century half of those left, will have gone. BBC20
In the 2003 heatwave the total mass of European alpine glaciers shrunk by 10%.
MetroSwiss, 200721
Links to Human Livelihoods
Most of the world’s precipitation falls on mountains, making these a primary and reliable
source of high quality water. They also provide the five most important food staples of the
15
http://www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2006/11/13_mountains_rise.htm
IPCC WGII, 2007 Alcamo, J., J.M. Moreno, B. Nováky, M. Bindi, R. Corobov, R.J.N. Devoy, C. Giannakopoulos, E. Martin,
J.E. Olesen, A. Shvidenko, 2007: Europe. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.
Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580.
17
http://www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2006/11/13_mountains_rise.htm
18
http://www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2006/11/13_mountains_rise.htm
19
http://www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2006/11/13_mountains_rise.htm
20
http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/glaciers.shtml
21
http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.asp?intStoryID=4900
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
world. Traditional agricultural practices cannot function the same way in changed conditions.
IUCN, 200622
Considered sacred by many of the world’s religions, mountains are a home to approximately
one tenth of the global human population. IUCN, 200623
After coasts and islands, mountains are the most important destinations for global tourism.
About 15-20 per cent of the global tourism industry - US$ 70-90 billion per year - is
associated with mountain areas.. The winter sports market is estimated to be 65-70 million
people worldwide: including 20 million in North America, 14 million in Japan, and perhaps 25
million in Europe. Climate change will impact on the livelihoods dependent on such tourism
People and Planet, 200324
Since 2004 snow sports have not been possible on the Chacaltya Glacier in Bolivia. The
change in tourism is impacting on local livelihoods. IPCC, 200725
Winter tourism in central Europe is likely to be disrupted by significant reductions in natural
snow cover especially at the beginning and end of the ski season. The most vulnerable
areas are those with no snowmaking adaptation considered, whereby a 1°C rise will lead to
four fewer weeks of skiing days in winter and six fewer weeks in spring. However summer
tourism in mountainous parts of France, Italy and Spain could become more popular
because of their relative coolness and human livelihoods will need to be adaptable to these
changes. IPCC, 200726
Winter revenues in Switzerland will drop 30% by 2030 with temperatures rising a maximum
of 1.8 degrees Celsius in winter and 2.6C in summer. However, summer business will
increase and bridge the income gap for many mountain resorts. Winter sports at about a
third of the Switzerland’s lower ski areas will no longer be economically viable. Bern
University Research Institute for Leisure and Tourism, 200727
Asia megadeltas and changing water supply – refer to IPCC
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=512&ArticleID=5599&l=en
http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice/PDF/highlights/Highlights-english.pdf
Everest
is
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jul/06/climatechange.climatechange
melting:
Mountains, reefs and islands
For tourism, climate change is not a remote event, but a phenomenon that already affects
the sector and certain destinations in particular, mountain regions and coastal destinations
among others. At the same time, the tourism sector is contributing to greenhouse gas
emissions (GHG), especially through the transport of tourists. Climate is an essential
22
23
http://www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2006/11/13_mountains_rise.htm
http://www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2006/11/13_mountains_rise.htm
24
http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=1034
25
IPCC WGII, 2007 Alcamo, J., J.M. Moreno, B. Nováky, M. Bindi, R. Corobov, R.J.N. Devoy, C. Giannakopoulos, E. Martin,
J.E. Olesen, A. Shvidenko, 2007: Europe. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.
Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580.
26
IPCC WGII, 2007 Alcamo, J., J.M. Moreno, B. Nováky, M. Bindi, R. Corobov, R.J.N. Devoy, C. Giannakopoulos, E. Martin,
J.E. Olesen, A. Shvidenko, 2007: Europe. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.
Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580.
27
http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.asp?intStoryID=4755
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
resource for tourism, and especially for the beach, nature and winter sport tourism
segments. Changing climate and weather patterns at tourist destinations and tourist
generating countries can significantly affect the tourists’ comfort and their travel decisions.
Changing demand patterns and tourist flows will have impacts on tourism businesses and on
host communities, as well as knock off effects on related sectors, such as agriculture,
handicrafts or construction. In small island states and developing countries, where tourism is
a major economic activity, any significant reduction in tourist arrivals will have serious
employment impacts and generate further poverty. World Tourism Organisation, 2007
http://www.unwto.org/climate/mag/en/pdf/climate_change_tourism.pdf
Key Resources :
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Polar Regions
General
The largest recent increases in annual temperatures for the planet are over the North
American Arctic, north central Siberia and on the Antarctic Peninsula. GEO, 200728
Ecosystem services in polar regions include carbon sequestration, climate regulation,
biodiversity and cultural maintenance, fuel, and food and fibre production. IPCC WGII,
200729
Global warming is projected to be most pronounced at high latitudes, with possible increases
in temperature xx, compared to the globally predicted average of xx
Overall Arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost double the global rate. Climate
model simulations for the Arctic project further increases in average temperatures plus a
trend to warmer high and low temperature extremes. GEO, 200730
The Arctic significantly contributes to global biodiversity and local mixed economies of cash
and subsistence depend strongly on the harvest of local resources, food preparation,
storage, distribution and consumption. This forms a unique body of cultural knowledge
traditionally transmitted from generation to generation. IPCC WGII, 200731
Unique endemic biodiversity (e.g., polar bears) as well as tundra dependent species such as
migratory birds (e.g., waterfowl) are facing increasing extinction risks, with concomitant
threats to the livelihoods and food security for indigenous peoples. IPCC WGII, 200732
Role in the climate system
Artic and sub-artic ecosystems above permafrost are globally most vulnerable to climatic
changes, since impacts may turn Arctic regions from a net carbon sink to a net source. IPCC
WGII, 200733 any figures on how much?
X amount of area in sub-artic area sequesters x amount of CO2.
Climate regulation is likely to be dominated by positive feedbacks between climate and
albedo changes through diminishing snow cover and, eventually, expanding forests and net
emissions of greenhouse gasses, notably methane. IPCC WGII, 200734
Melting of highly reflective snow and ice uncovers darker land and ocean surfaces which
absorbs more of the sun’s energy. Called albedo (the surface reflectivity of sun’s radiation),
an increase in absorption of radiation further warms the atmosphere and creates a positive
28
Global Environment Outlook for Snow and Ice, 2007: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo%5Fice/
Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A.
Velichko, 2007:Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 211-272.
30
Global Environment Outlook for Snow and Ice, 2007: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo%5Fice/
31
ibid
32
ibid
33
ibid
34
ibid
29
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
feedback loop which can cause fluctuations in temperature, winds, ocean currents and
precipitation.35
The release of methane (an important greenhouse gas) from melting permafrost, drained
wetlands and thawing lakes in the sub-artic region is increasing. Current estimates of
northern wetland methane emissions increase by 10-63% based on northern Siberian
estimates alone. This methane source comprises a positive feedback to climate change, as
thaw lakes and wetlands are expanding in response to warming. IPCC WGII, 200736
The addition of freshwater into the oceans is altering ocean circulation which affects global
and regional climates.
Changes in ocean temperatures, currents and sea ice will impact on polar ecosystems,
possibly changing the ocean's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. BAS, 200637
Impacts and vulnerability
Over the past 50 years, the west coast of the Antarticia Peninsula has been one of the most
rapidly-warming parts of the planet, with annual mean temperatures rising by nearly 3°C and
the largest warming occurring in the winter season38. BAS, 2006
Upper ocean temperatures to the west of the Antartcia Peninsula have increased by over
1°C since 195539. BAS, 2006
Large changes have occurred in the ice cover of the Antarctia Peninsula. Many glaciers
have retreated40 and several of the ice shelves that formerly fringed the Peninsula have
broken up rapidly41. This loss of ice cover is almost certainly driven by increased melting
associated with rising atmospheric temperatures. BAS, 2006
Seas surrounding the Artic and Antarctic are rich in plankton which supports a diverse food
chain, which is of particular importance to fisheries and the livelihoods of Artic peoples. CBD,
200742
35
Budikova, Dagmar (Lead Author); Mryka Hall-Beyer and Galal Hassan Galal Hussein (Topic Editors). 2007. "Albedo." In:
Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for
Science and the Environment). [First published November 21, 2006; Last revised March 15, 2007; Retrieved August 30, 2007].
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Albedo
36
Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A.
Velichko, 2007:Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 211-272.
37
British Antarctica Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/our_views/climate_change.php
38
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/our_views/climate_change.php, Turner, J., S. R. Colwell,
G. J. Marshall, T. A. Lachlan-Cope, A. M. Carleton, P. D. Jones, V. Lagun, P. A. Reid, and S. Iagovkina, 2005: Antarctic climate
change during the last 50 years. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 279-294.;
Vaughan, D. G., G. J. Marshall, W. M. Connolley, J. C. King, and R. M. Mulvaney, 2001: Devil in the detail. Science, 293, 17771779.;
King, J. C., J. Turner, G. J. Marshall, W. M. Connolley, and T. A. Lachlan-Cope, 2004: Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability
And Its Causes As Revealed By Analysis Of Instrumental Records. Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: A historical and
Paleoenvironmental Perspective, E. Domack, A. Burnett, P. Convey, M. Kirby, and R. Bindschadler, Eds., American
Geophysical Union, 17-30.
39
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/our_views/climate_change.php, Meredith, M. P. and J. C.
King, 2005: Rapid climate change in the ocean west of the Antarctic Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century.
Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L19604, doi:10.1029/2005GL024042.
40
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/our_views/climate_change.php, Cook, A. J., A. J. Fox, D.
G. Vaughan, and J. G. Ferrigno, 2005: Retreating glacier fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past half-century. Science,
308, 541-544.
41
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/our_views/climate_change.php, Vaughan, D. G. and C. S.
M. Doake, 1996: Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature, 379, 328-330.
42
Convention on Biological Diversity: http://www.cbd.int/doc/bioday/2007/ibd-2007-booklet-01-en.pdf
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IACCF 2007 Oct/2
The average weight of female polar bears in the Hudson Bay, Canada has fallen from 650
pounds in 1980 to 507 pounds in 2004 due to the large decrease in the extent of sea ice
cover. NASA, 200643
Sea ice retreat could decrease polar bear populations by two-thirds over the next 50 years
USGS, 200744
Adélie penguins, a species well adapted to sea ice conditions, have declined in Antarctia
and been replaced by open-water species such as chinstrap penguins45. Melting of perennial
snow and ice covers has resulted in increased colonisation by plants in Antarcticia46. BAS,
2006
Sea-level rise occurs at approximately 3mm per year due to thermal expansion, glacial melt
and melting of the polar regions. The melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland
account for around one third of current sea-level rise. BAS47
Theoretically, if all the ice in Antarctica were to melt, it would cause global sea level to rise
by around 60 metres. BAS48
The most direct shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, connecting Asia and
Europe, is fully navigable for the first time since records began, data show. Warming has led
to a record retreat of Arctic sea ice, which covers about 16 million square kilometres during
March each year and melts to a minimum sometime in September or October. The previous
record minimum was 5.32 million square kilometres, set in 2005, but this year it has already
reached a low of 4.24 million square kilometres, according to the US National Snow and Ice
Data
Center
in
Boulder,
Colorado.
Nature
(http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v449/n7160/full/449267b.html)
Link to human livelihoods
Losses in biodiversity affect the traditional practices of indigenous people, particularly fishing
and hunting.
The Saami people have observed changes in reindeer grazing patterns due changes in
temperature, precipitation and seasonality. Coupled with other environmental changes (such
as habitat fragmentation), the Saami traditional herding practices are increasingly under
threat. ACIA, 200449
The Inuit people of Canada are dependent on the ringed seal as their most important food
source and hunting seal is part of a traditional way of life. Seal populations are reducing and
hunting them is increasingly difficult due to sea ice breakup. IISD, 199950; ITK, 200551
Key Resources :
43
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/polar_bears.html
US Geological Survey: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar%5Fbears/
45
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/our_views/climate_change.php, Fraser, W. R., W. Z.
Trivelpiece, D. G. Ainley, and S. G. Trivelpiece, 1992: Increases in Antarctic penguin populations: reduced competition with
whales or a loss of sea ice due to environmental warming? Polar Biology, 11, 525-531.
46
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/our_views/climate_change.php, Fowbert, J. A. and R. I.
Lewis Smith, 1994: Rapid poulation increases in native vascular plants in the Argentine Islands, Antarctic Peninsula. Arctic and
Alpine Research, 26, 290-296.
47
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/documents/news/factsheet_1.pdf
48
British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/documents/news/factsheet_1.pdf
49
Artic Climate Impact Assessment: http://www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html
50
International Institute for Sustainable Development: http://www.iisd.org/pdf/inuittriprprt1.pdf
51
Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami: http://www.itk.ca/environment/wildlife-ringed-seal.php
44
13
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Agriculture
General
Role in the Climate System
Impacts and Vulnerability
One-third of the worlds 6500 domesticated animal breeds are threatened with extinction.
GBO2, 2006
Links to Human Livelihoods
Food production will have to increase by 40 per cent by the year 2020 to meet the needs of
the world's growing population. DFID Issues: Biodiversity - a crucial issue for the world's
poorest.
Key Resources :
14
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Drylands
General
Role in the Climate System
Impacts and Vulnerability
Future impacts on deserts e.g. increased vulnerability to storms, agriculture
Ecosystem services provided by deserts
Links to Human Livelihoods
20% of the world’s susceptible drylands (a total of 1.9 billion hectares of land – twice the size
of China) are affected by soil degradation, putting the livelihoods of more than one billion
people at risk – DFID, 2000 and likelihood to increase under climate change
Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50
million environmental refugees by the end of the decade – UNU, 2005
Key Resources :
15
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Soil and Peatland
Peatlands
General
Role in the Climate System
Role of peatlands in mitigating climate change i.e. sink
Potential of peatlands as source of GHGs (impacts of climate change)
Impacts and Vulnerability
Human mitigation activities impacting on peatlands, e.g. biofuels
Links to Human Livelihoods
Key Resources :
The world's peatlands' peat has been forming for 360 million years and contains 550 Gt of
carbon.
The peat fires of 1997 in Indonesia released over 40% of the global total GHG emissions for
that year. http://www.wetlands.org/event.aspx?ID=ea6c02b5-eaf3-48f3-a909-9c511626b2c3
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4208564.stm
http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/biomass_burn/Factsheet.pdf
550 billion tonnes of carbon are stored peat globally. This is the equivalent of about 75% of
all the carbon in the atmosphere at present, or 70 years of fossil fuel emissions at current
rates.
Russia peatlands now melting for the first time ever
Loss of peatland – biofuels and destruction
Indonesia is among the world's top three greenhouse gas emitters because of deforestation, peatland
degradation and forest fires, a report sponsored by the World Bank and Britain's development arm said.
More: http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=JAK270705
Wetlands International and Delft Hydraulics study, biofuel is often more polluting than fossil
fuels.
Drainage of vast peatland areas for oil palm plantations leads to huge emissions of carbon
dioxide as drained peat decomposes very rapidly, the study released in December found.
The decomposing peatland can release 70 to 100 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare per
year and result in emissions 10 times higher than if coal was used instead of biofuel, the
study found.
Presentations from SBSTA 2007 http://www.wetlands.org/event.aspx?ID=3ca02931-843c-41ccb61e-076d3ee23025
16
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Soil
General
Diversity of soil
Role in the Climate System
Role of soil in carbon cycle (sink / source)
Impacts and Vulnerability
Links to Human Livelihoods
Contribution of soil to human livelihoods – ecosystem services costed?
Key Resources :
See LUPG paper
Temperate peatlands hold a quarter of all soil carbon, illustrating their importance as a global
sink (Moore, 2002). But can act as source or csink depending on delicate balance of
climate, water supply, and temperature. (Mitchell et al, 2007) England adaptation document
Soil is one of the most diverse habitats on earth and contains one of the most dense
assemblages of organisms. For example a single gram of soil may contain millions of
individuals and several thousand species of bacteria – FAO, 2003
Soils can either be a source or a sink of carbon52. To maintain the role of soils as a net sink,
the rates of depletion of carbon from the soil need to be minimised, and its absorption
capacity, and thus its sequestration potential, maintained or enhanced. The global potential
of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration has been estimated by Lal (2004) to be 0.9 +/0.8 Pg C/year, which equates to between one quarter and one third of the annual increase in
atmospheric carbon levels, measured at a rate of 3.2 +/- 0.1 PgC/year. This figure for
sequestration potential is widely quoted, however, the actual potential may be significantly
lower53. Soil carbon content depends on the rate of addition of carbon from plant growth net primary productivity - against the rate of removal of carbon through the decomposition of
organic matter, leaching and other soil processes such as disturbance and erosion. As
such, the sink potential is highest when there are high crop yields, minimal levels of soil
disturbance and low rates of decomposition of soil organic matter. Low rates of
decomposition tend to occur in those countries with low temperatures and wet conditions.
Each of these factors, however, is sensitive to changes in land use, historic and present
management, climatic conditions and other variables (Freibauer et al., 2004) so there is a
wide variation in the sequestering potential of soils in different regions.
52
There is a broad consensus that the atmospheric concentration of carbon is increasing at a rate of 3.2 +/- 0.1 PgC/year
based on figures from the 1990s. Of this, 6.3 +/- 1.3 PgC/year are from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and 1.6
+/- 0.8 PgC/year are from land use change, including soil cultivation. A significant proportion is subsequently reabsorbed by
sinks including the oceans, 2.3 +/- 0.8 PgC/year, and the territorial sink, 2.3 +/- 1.3 PgC/year (Lal, 2004; Smith, 2005).
53
Other estimates differ widely, suggesting that the realistically achievable potential may be significantly lower (Smith, 2004).
Freibauer et al., (2004), for example, have estimated that agricultural soils in the EU-15 have the potential to sequester up to 16
– 19 Mt C / year during the first Kyoto commitment period (2008 – 2012), which is less than one fifth of the theoretical potential
and equivalent to two per cent of European anthropogenic emissions. Smith et al., (2000) estimated that a realistic potential for
carbon mitigation on UK agricultural soils is 10.4 Tg C/year, which is about 6.6 per cent of the UK’s CO2 emissions in 1990.
17
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Inland Water
General
Role in the Climate System
Impacts and Vulnerability
Future climate impacts on inland waters (biologically)
Human adaptation activities (e.g. barrages, dams, increased abstraction)
Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are
very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. IPCC, 2007 (WGII report)
Forests and other habitats are increasingly fragmented, affecting their ability to maintain
biodiversity and deliver ecosystem services – for example within 292 large river systems,
257 were affected by dams – GBO2, 2006 link this to potential future changes in human
abstraction of water under climate change
Links to Human Livelihoods
Human livelihoods and inland water (e.g. water supply for human use)
In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an
increase of water stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will
adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems. IPCC, 2007 (WGII
report)
In the year 2000, 508 million people lived in 31 water-stressed or waterscarce countries. By
2025, 3 billion people will be living in 48 such countries. DFID 200254
Climate change is expected to have major impacts on water supply. Between 2.3 and 3.2
billion people could experience a degradation in conditions of at least 10 per cent by 2050.
Areas experiencing water stress will include the Indian sub-continent. The human costs of
climate change, Friends of the Earth, 2002.
Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50
million environmental refugees by the end of the decade – UNU, 2005
Key Resources :
54
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/povertyandenvironment.pdf
18
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Wetlands
Ecosystem services wetlands provide
Role of wetlands as carbon sink / source
Human livelihoods and links to wetlands
Future impacts
General
Role in the Climate System
Impacts and Vulnerability
Links to Human Livelihoods
The loss of wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico to building and development contributed to the
extent of the destruction wrought by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Wetlands soak up and slow
storm water. Paving them over leaves the excess water with no place to go and exacerbates
flooding. – Government Accountability Office, United States
Key Resources :
19
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
Human Security
Human health and ecosystem services
Changed climate and potential implications
Security over resources: water, arable land, productive oceans
Predicted impacts from a temperature increase of only 2.5°C include 210 million more
people at risk from malaria, up to 3.1 billion more people suffering from water scarcity, and
50 million more people facing hunger. 55
Human Health
HELSINKI (Reuters) - Global warming is bringing more warmer-climate creatures to Finland, including moths
that
feast
on
human
blood,
according
to
nature
researchers.
More:
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=scienceNews&storyID=2007-0604T134120Z_01_L04752498_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINLAND-MOTH.xmlb
Issue 63 of the quarterly bulletin is now on-line, featuring articles on on health and climate in
Kashmir, environmental stress and climate change and gender issues...
http://www.tiempocyberclimate.org/newswatch/latest.htm
Malaria increases
Deaths and injuries from global warming may more than double over the next 25 years as
the weather phenomenon is expected to worsen problems such as malaria and malnutrition,
the WHO predicts.
At the end of the 1990s, the Red Cross reported that for the first time the number of people
displaced by environmental crises and extreme weather events outweighed the total forced
from their homes by war. From Here to Sustainability: Politics in the Real World, The Real
World Coalition, 2001.
More people, particularly those at lower income levels, are now forced to live in exposed and
marginal areas (i.e. floodplains, exposed hillsides, arid or semiarid lands), putting them at
risk to the negative impacts of climate change. 56
UN Security Council discussions
Margaret Beckett speech
http://www.fco.gov.uk/servlet/Front?pagename=OpenMarket/Xcelerate/ShowPage&c=Page&cid=100
7029391629&a=KArticle&aid=1176454354972
In many developing countries, 80 - 90% of jobs are based on natural resources (e.g.
agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism) DFID 200257
Yields of rice, wheat and maize in the tropics could fall by 30% over the next fifty years as a
result of climate change. DFID 200258
Lack of access to safe drinking water or sanitation is a major killer - around 3.4 million
people die annually from water-related diseases. The poor often have to rely on untreated
water sources for drinking and washing. DFID 200259
55
http://www.biodiv.org/programmes/outreach/awareness/biodiv-day-2007.shtml
http://www.biodiv.org/include/404.aspx?aspxerrorpath=/programmes/outreach/awareness/doc/bioday/2007/ibd-2007-booklet01-en.pdf
57
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/povertyandenvironment.pdf
58
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/povertyandenvironment.pdf
56
20
IACCF 2007 Oct/2
A study in Costa Rica found that forest-based pollinators increased coffee yields by 20%
within 1 kilometre of the forest, increasing the income of a 1,100 hectare farm by $60,000
dollars a year, commensurate with expected revenues from competing land uses – MA, 2005
and links to changes in pollinators under climate change
Thirteen million Nigerians are currently at risk due to climate change vulnerability, a report
on climate has shown. A report on Nigeria under UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change says that those at risk would have to relocate.
The report indicates that the inhabitants of the nation's coastal areas and communities on
desertification zone would be at serious risk. The report adds that the relocation would arise
from floods and erosion at the coastal areas. "Most of the Sudan and the savannah regions,
which are already undergoing severe droughts and desertification, would be affected.
"Already about 15 per cent of the Niger Delta would be lost with no sea level rise, however,
with sea level rise of 0.5mm, about 35 per cent of the Delta would be lost.
"About 15 per cent of the country's population is presently affected by climatic variations and
sea level changes, " the report says.
The report says that with the projected climate change and sea level rise of about 0.5 mm,
those to be relocated, if with no mitigation plan, would increase to 27 million. "If sea level
should rise by about 1.0mm with the projected climate change, the people to be relocated
would be more than 48 million," the report indicates.It says that the country would witness a
massive refugee situation if proper mitigation strategy was not put in place.
The report which is a fundamental requirement from all parties to the Convention is meant to
draw attention to the risk.
It further says that socio-economic, ecological and socio-cultural values at risk would be high
in the country.
Key Resources :
Governance
Headline examples of where governance has failed
Failure to recognise the value of environmental goods and services leads to inappropriate
policies and perverse economic incentives. Without formal valuation of the environment, the
loss of resources is not reflected in traditional economic measures of development. DFID
200260
59
60
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/povertyandenvironment.pdf
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/povertyandenvironment.pdf
21