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July 2012 The science behind climate change briefing Introduction Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. Though it has been a popular topic in recent years, interest in climate change has seemed to decline as the economic downturn felt across the globe has taken precedence. Nonetheless, action must urgently be taken, as the negative impact felt by future generations is likely to vastly increase unless we take action now. It is important for individuals and public & private sector bodies to know what they can do to tackle the impact of climate change. However, the government is ultimately responsible in tackling the impact of climate change by taking a strategic leadership role in raising awareness and committing adequate and sustainable resources to reduce carbon emissions and save our scarce resources. Also the voluntary & community sector (VCS) organisations with their close ties to individuals and communities have a unique opportunity to make great strides in reducing the negative impacts of climate change when working with and supporting local communities. For more information on climate change policies you could read LVSC’s recent briefing on climate change policy at a national and London-wide level. It summarises current policies and initiatives and the opportunities for the London VCS around adapting to and mitigating against climate change. The aim of this briefing is to provide a lay overview of the science behind climate change and what this might mean for us now and in the future. The meaning of climate / climate change First, we must define what climate means and differentiate it from weather. While weather is the temperature, wind, precipitation, etc. that changes from hour to hour or day to day, climate is essentially the average weather at a given location over a given period of time. The location can be as specific as the city of London or as broad as the entire globe, while the period of time can range from a single month to several years. Climate change, therefore, describes the variations in climate elements over a significantly long interval. What is global warming? Often, when people hear climate change they assume it means global warming, a popular misconception. While the term climate change encompasses global warming, it also includes things like variations in sea level and severe/extreme weather events. Although the global average may show a rise in temperature, the variability of individual weather events in 1 different regions means not every consecutive year will be warmer than the last. What is / are the greenhouse effect / greenhouse gases? Another popular, but often misunderstood term is the greenhouse effect. This describes how gases in the atmosphere (such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, and methane) trap heat from the sun. These gases allow sunlight to pass through the atmosphere but prevent the heat from escaping back into space. Without this process, the Earth would be much colder and uninhabitable for most kinds of life. The greenhouse effect, and its associated gases, occur naturally and have been for millions of years. However, emissions due to human activity are directly increasing the amount greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere and this is believed to contribute to climate change effects. How is our climate changing? While the Earth has witnessed cyclic fluctuations between warm and cool periods throughout history, changes in the climate over the last century have been rapid. Since the last ice age, the Earth’s average global temperature has hovered around 14°C. During the last hundred years though, that temperature has risen about three quarters of a degree. While this may sound like a very small change, it has great implications. This has caused changes in rainfall patterns, sea level rises, and the melting of ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice around the world. For more information on climate, climate change, and the environmental impacts, visit the Met Office and DECC websites. What does this mean for us? According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a number of important impacts on human activity are possible. First and foremost are continued temperature and sea level rises. Left unmitigated, greenhouse gas emissions could increase the global temperature by a further 1-6°C over the next century. The continued increase in temperature could lead to more severe heat waves and droughts in some areas as well as increased heavy precipitation in flooding in others. Further sea level rises could threaten low-lying coastal areas and small island states. These changes have huge implications regarding agriculture, human health, plant and animal life, and economic effects. What are the implications for London? Climate change (particularly rising temperature and sea level) in the UK could lead to: Increased electricity demand for cooling in summer and the rising costs of energy bills Decreased electricity demand for heating in winter Greater risk of drought/flood, depending on the area Increased water supply shortages due to periods of droughts 2 Decreased crop yields elsewhere, which may affect the food supply in the UK Reduced air quality (see LVSC’s air quality briefing) Reduced comfort in buildings and public transportation due to over heating For more information on the social and economic impacts of climate change and what action VCS can take, visit the NVCO website. Conclusion Climate change is occurring and it is widely accepted in the scientific community that human interaction with the environment is contributing to this rapid change. It will almost certainly have profound impacts on both society and daily life globally and within London in the near future. Climate change is an extremely important matter and should be of particular interest to the VCS, whose connection with London communities allows them to be a driving force in changing environmental behaviours. This briefing was produced by Adrian Hornung (BSc Meteorology), LVSC Intern July 2012 Climate Change Leaders for Low Carbon London project is funded by City Bridge Trust. The project is supported by a number of partners. 3