Download 2. Low Carbon Cities – The National Context

Peter Lukey’s contribution to the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) Low Carbon
Cities (LCC) Report
Initial Working Draft, 10 June 2010
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2. Low Carbon Cities – The National Context ..................................................................................... 1
2.1
Background and Introduction – putting climate change on the national political agenda .................. 1
2.1.1
The early days – the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) ................................................ 2
2.1.2
The 2005 “Climate Action Now” Conference .................................................................................. 3
2.1.2.1
Government’s Statement of Intent – the Midrand Plan of Action ........................................ 5
2.1.3
The Long-Term Emission Scenario (LTMS) ...................................................................................... 6
2.1.4
The 2007 ANC Climate Change Resolution.................................................................................... 10
2.2
The National Climate Change Response Policy .................................................................................. 11
2.2.1
The July 2008 Cabinet Decisions ................................................................................................... 11
2.2.2
The 2009 Summit .......................................................................................................................... 13
2.2.3
Current policy positions ................................................................................................................ 18
2.3
South Africa and the international negotiations................................................................................ 18
2.3.1
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ................................. 18
2.3.2
South Africa and the UNFCCC ....................................................................................................... 19
2.3.3
Current status of negotiations ...................................................................................................... 19
2.3.4
Key discussion/negotiation issues ................................................................................................. 19
2.3.4.1
Adaptation ........................................................................................................................... 19
2.3.4.2
Mitigation by developed countries ...................................................................................... 19
2.3.4.3
Mitigation by developing countries ..................................................................................... 20
2.3.4.4
Finance, technology and capacity building .......................................................................... 20
2.3.5
The prognosis of what is achievable ............................................................................................. 20
2.3.6
The Copenhagen Accord and South Africa’s Listing ...................................................................... 21
2.4
Energy – the most significant national issue impacting on the local context .................................... 21
References ............................................................................................................................................. 23
2.
LOW CARBON CITIES – THE NATIONAL CONTEXT
2.1
Background and Introduction – putting climate change on the national political agenda
During the mid- to late-1980s, there was an emerging body of scientific evidence that human induced
global warming was taking place with severe predicted consequences for climate patterns. With this,
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO) set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to synthesise the
scientific evidence for, or against, human induced climate change.
The 1st IPCC Assessment Report published in 1990 presented sufficient scientific evidence of climate
change to elicit world wide concern and the negotiation of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was opened for signature at the Rio Earth Summit in
1992 and came into force in 1994.
In 1994, in response to the growing international concerns around climate change, the Department
of Environmental Affairs and Tourism established the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC,
see 2.1.1), a multi-stakeholder forum aimed at discussing and informing South Africa’s response to
these concerns.
The 2nd IPCC Assessment report published in 1995 demonstrated that the actions outlined in the
UNFCCC were insufficient and this motivated the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol which was
finalised in 1997 as a first step towards a more ambitious international response to the global climate
change threat.
In response to the findings of the IPCC’s 2nd Assessment Report and supported by recommendations
from the NCCC, the South African Government ratified the UNFCCC in August 1997.
The 3rd IPCC Assessment Report in 2001 gave further scientific certainty that climate change was
indeed largely caused by human activity and provided impetus for the further development and
operationalisation of the Kyoto Protocol, that finally came into force in 2005.
By 2001, South African researchers had also started taking a serious look at climate change and its
implications. For example, the paper entitled “Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Future
Perspectives for South Africa” (Davidson OR, Tyani L, 2001) was published at this time.
Arguably, climate change took a jump up the South African political agenda when, in 2002 the Heads
of State of over 180 countries met at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in
Johannesburg. In July of 2002 the South African Government acceded to the Kyoto Protocol.
By 2003, South Africa had concluded its Climate Change “Country Studies” and 1990 and 1994
greenhouse gas inventories and had submitted these in the form of its Initial Communication to the
UNFCCC Secretariat. In compiling and finalising this briefing document on South Africa and climate
change, it became clear that South Africa was not only a potentially significant victim of the negative
impacts of climate change, but also a significant contributor to greenhouse gases. Given this difficult
position of both climate change victim and perpetrator, South Africa’s negotiation efforts were seen
to go up several notches at this time resulting in comments that South Africa “punches above its
weight” in the climate change negotiations.
By 2005, based on evidence from the 3rd IPCC Assessment Report and new emerging science, it was
increasingly clear that the measures agreed to in the UNFCCC and it’s Kyoto Protocol were an
inadequate international response to the threats posed by climate change. In particular since the
legally binding provisions of the Kyoto Protocol only covered less than 40% of the world’s GHG
emissions.
With the 3rd IPCC Assessment Report, it also became clear that South Africa, along with other more
advanced developing countries (e.g. China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Saudi Arabia),
would have to start seriously considering its responsibility for climate change and, that, as a fossilfuel-powered nation, this would have dramatic policy implications.
The following sections provide further detail on the important developments from 2005 to the
present 2.1.1 The early days – the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC)
As mentioned above, the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) was established in 1994 – the
year of South Africa’s first democratic election. Since then, the NCCC has met over fifty six times
since its inception and at its 56th meeting held on 15 February 2010, the key focus of discussions was,
naturally, the outcome of the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change held in Copenhagen in December 2009.
The purpose of the NCCC is to advise and consult the Department of Environmental Affairs, through
the department’s Deputy Director-General for Environmental Quality and Protection, on matters
relating to national responsibilities with respect to climate change, and in particular, in relation to
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto protocol and the
implementation of climate change related activities.
The functions of the NCCC include:

Setting its own agenda and timetable, within a framework determined by the Department of
Environmental Affairs.

Making recommendations to the Department of Environmental Affairs on issues related to
climate change, and also to express the concerns of key stakeholders.

Designing and participating in processes leading to the formulation of national climate change
policies and a national implementation strategies.

Proposing studies to be undertaken in support of national climate change policy development
processes, their scope, timetable, budget and deadlines.

Communicating developments within the national and international climate change arena to
their constituencies.

Delegating its functions and responsibilities to subcommittees, as needed.

Assisting and/or informing a structured process of capacity building and technology
transfer/development.

Designing and participating in processes leading to the formulation of international positions
for South at the UNFCCC negotiations, and

Forming part of the delegation at these negotiations.
The committee usually meets four times per year.
Individual members are designated representatives from defined stakeholder groups involved in
climate change and the NCCC is constituted of, at least two, but no more than five, representatives
from each of the following stakeholder groups:

National Government - Department of Environmental Affairs, Department of Mineral
Resources, Department of Energy, Department of International relations and Cooperation,
Department of Trade and Industry, Department of Water Affairs, Department of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries, Department of Sustainable Human Settlements, Department of
Transport, Department of Science and Technology, National Treasury and the Presidency.

Other spheres of government - Provincial environment departments, key municipalities
(Metros).

Non-governmental and community-based environmental organisations

Academic and research institutions

Business and Industry

The national energy utility, Eskom

Organised Labour (Trades Union)
2.1.2 The 2005 “Climate Action Now” Conference1
From 17 to 20 October 2005, under the banner of “Climate Action Now”, South Africans from all
spheres of life came together in Midrand to address the growing challenge of climate change and to
prepare for its implications. Over 600 representatives from government, business, the scientific and
academic communities, and civil society considered the science relating to climate change and key
responses to the potential social and economic impacts associated with the compelling scientific
evidence of climate change.
Most importantly, the conference unanimously agreed that climate change was a reality, sounding a
death knell to a number of denialist commentators that had confused and confounded the public
debate up to this point.
Furthermore, the gathering was broadly considered a reflection of Government’s commitment and
1
The following section is based on: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. 2005. Action for
Climate Change – Conference Statement, 20 October 2005.
determination to act on climate change and to shape policy informed by the best-available science.
In opening the Conference, the then Deputy President, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, affirmed that
South Africa would accept its responsibility to address climate change and would mobilise different
economic sectors to meet the challenge. She went on to note that this approach was to be carried
out in line with government’s strategy for accelerated and equitable growth and sustainable job
creation and poverty alleviation.
The Conference gave a platform to eminent
scientists and policy makers who outlined the
present and likely impacts of climate change
on South Africa. These included, among
others, increases in the distribution and
intensity of drought; reduced agricultural crop
yields impacting on food security; potential
species extinction; increased growth rates of
invasive species; potentially catastrophic coral
bleaching; and an increase in the areas Figure 1: The 2005 National Climate Change
affected by vector-borne diseases, including Conference branding
malaria. It was also clearly stated that, in all of
these circumstances, it was the poor who would be worst affected.
The Conference agreed that climate change was one of the most significant threats to sustainable
development across the globe and that human activity contributed to climate change. With this, the
conference acknowledged the urgency of stabilising concentrations of greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere - the ultimate objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – and
called on all nations to join in support of the international effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
with developed countries taking stronger action.
Furthermore, the conference also agreed that the time for countries like South Africa to take further
action on the basis of differentiated responsibility had come and there was an expressed wish to see
the emergence after 2012 of a strengthened Kyoto or Kyoto-plus regime that was more inclusive,
flexible, cooperative and environmentally effective. In addition, the conference noted that the issue
of adaptation needed to become a more prominent global priority in the climate regime.
Government’s stated commitment to climate action was also voiced by Ministers with portfolios of
Environment, Minerals and Energy, Water and Forestry, Land and Agriculture, and Science and
Technology. The Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism called for a world-wide climate
change awareness campaign to demystify and mainstream climate change, urging the need to make
the link, in the minds of ordinary people around the world, between their actions and climate
change. The Minister of Agriculture and Land Affairs called for the promotion of food security in the
face of the climate change threat. The Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry stressed how crucial
water management would be in adapting to climate change impacts. The Minister of Science and
Technology stressed the importance of a National Climate Change Research and Development
Strategy as a key instrument to channel the nation’s efforts. The Minister of Minerals and Energy
launched the Designated National Authority which was hoped would realize the potential of the
Clean Development Mechanism and actively promote CDM projects in South Africa.
All conference participants agreed that South Africa must accelerate its national response as well as
reinforce efforts in the international arena and affirmed that the nation’s climate change response
was located within a sustainable development paradigm.
From a science and technology perspective, the broadening and deepening of the knowledge base on
climate change was considered to be core to an accelerated response. This included prediction,
scenarios, early warning systems, disaster management, as well as adaptation and mitigation
interventions for South Africa in particular and Africa in general. There was agreement to intensify
efforts to use the best available science to address adaptive and mitigation actions in a coordinated
manner and a commitment to develop a critical mass of climate scientists to help grapple with the
dynamics of climate change. Scientific institutions were urged to put measures in place to entice
young scientists into this specialist field and emerging scientists were encouraged to exploit the
opportunities presented to them through available programmes. It was affirmed that the nature of
climate change and the issues associated with it lends itself to the need for a multi-disciplinary
approach to research and development.
The conference resolved to take urgent action to meet the shared challenges in order to guarantee
the nation’s common future.
Importantly, the conference also compiled and published a number of “statements of intent” by the
key constituencies present at the conference in an attempt to demonstrate the common resolve to
action and the mainstreaming of climate change considerations in all their respective spheres of
activity.
2.1.2.1 Government’s Statement of Intent – the Midrand Plan of Action
The published undertakings by government describing a number of activities regarded as constituting
the foundation of a Midrand Plan of Action was meant to lead the country’s climate change
programme into the future. These activities included:

Ensuring the alignment, cohesion and coherence of government responses to climate change
by coordinating and driving its climate change responses and interventions through the InterMinisterial Committee on Climate Change, its associated Inter-Departmental Committee and
the multi-stakeholder National Committee on Climate Change;

Continuing the review of the National Climate Change Response Strategy;

Initiating a detailed scenario building process to map out how South Africa could meet its
UNFCCC Article 2 commitment to greenhouse gas stabilisation whilst ensuring its focus on
poverty alleviation and job creation;

Initiating a participatory climate change policy development process;

Using the Air Quality Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and encourage a move to
cleaner production, including the setting of emission standards that encourage energy
efficiency;

Compiling sectoral action plans to implement the National Climate Change Response Strategy;

Initiating a participatory national climate change research and development strategy
development process that would coordinate and focus current research in a manner that
delivers the critical mass of multi-disciplinary knowledge in focus areas while creating the
opportunity to develop and retain human capital and research infrastructure;

Driving increased research and innovation for the hydrogen economy using the research chairs
programme and providing early demonstration of technologies for 2010;

Strengthening the South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) to facilitate
long term climate research and establishing a coordinating mechanism for South Africa’s
investment in earth observation as well as providing an interface with the Global Earth
Observation System of Systems (GEOSS);

Establishing the South African National Energy Research Institute (SANERI);

Developing a technology needs assessment to frame a programme of action for technology
transfer;

Facilitating the development of clean technologies for climate change mitigation;

Actively supporting the strengthening of the CDM, particularly a streamlined methodology
review process and mechanisms to reduce transactions costs for smaller, bundled projects,
during the COP/MOP in Montreal in November 2005, without reopening the Marrakech
Accords;

Ensuring that renewable energy and energy efficiency are included as viable alternatives to
conventional fossil fuels in government’s integrated energy planning process;

Exploring new funding sources and mechanisms to support the rollout of renewable energy;

Establishing the National Energy Efficiency Agency to coordinate public and private investment
in energy efficiency;

Considering climate change impacts in its water conservation and demand management
initiatives;

Reviewing and reassessing the ways in which South Africa operates its dams and quantifies the
Ecological Reserve to account for a changing climate;

Reviewing the details of water-sharing agreements in the light of new physical realities;

Examining the design and implementation of the water allocation reform process to ensure
that climate change considerations are taken into account;

Designing and implementing an outreach strategy to create awareness of the implications of
climate change among stakeholders and customers in the water sector;

Ensuring that climate change considerations are included in the evaluation of new agricultural
research and development projects;

Reviewing and revising agricultural policy to ensure climate change resilience; and

Ensuring that climate change is fully considered and reflected in the four elements of
agricultural early warning systems, including: prior risk knowledge; monitoring and warning
services; dissemination of warnings/information; and response capacity.
Interestingly, the Midrand Plan of Action also included an acknowledgement of “Eskom’s restatement of its commitment to displacing 10% of its coal-fired generating capacity with alternative
sources by 2012 and its commitment to further reductions beyond 2012”.
2.1.3 The Long-Term Emission Scenarios (LTMS)
One of the activities described in the so-called Midrand
Plan of Action (see 2.1.2.1) was the initiation of a detailed
scenario building process to map out how South Africa
could meet its UNFCCC Article 2 commitment to
greenhouse gas stabilisation whilst ensuring its focus on
poverty alleviation and job creation.
To this end, in March 2006, Cabinet mandated a national
process of building scenarios of possible greenhouse gas emission futures, informed by the best
available research and information, to define not only South Africa’s position on future commitments
under international treaties, but also to shape the country’s climate change policy for the longerterm future. This process became known as the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) development
process.
The focus of the LTMS process, as the name suggests, was mitigation (i.e. reducing emissions of
greenhouse gases).
The Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) as the focal point for climate change in
South Africa convened and managed the process, which was overseen by the Inter-Ministerial
Committee on Climate Change. DEAT appointed the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape
Town to project manage the entire process and they convened and contracted the process specialists
and set up the personnel of four focussed Research Support Units.
The key objectives of the LTMS process included:

South African stakeholders understand and are focused on a range of ambitious but realistic
scenarios of future climate action both for themselves and for the country, based on best
available information, notably long-term emissions scenarios and their cost implications;

The South African delegation is well-prepared with clear positions for a post-2012 dialogue;

Cabinet can make informed decisions in respect of (a) a long-term climate change policy and
(b) positions for the dialogue under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
change; and

Cabinet policy informed by the scenarios will assist future work to build public awareness and
support for government initiatives.
In line with the Cabinet mandate, the LTMS Scenario Building Team (SBT) was established to carry
out the technical aspects of the process. The Scenario Building Team was made up of over 80
individual stakeholders from government, industry, labour, civil society, as well as other relevant
players.
On 24 October 2007, after a year of intense work, the initial technical work of the LTMS was signed
off by the SBT at their sixth meeting. This work is reflected in the following documents:

The “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios - Strategic options for South Africa”, a 27 page document
that synthesizes the findings of the technical research into a tool for informed decision-making
(Attached as annexure).

The “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios – Technical Summary”, a 17 page document that
provides the technical basis, in abridged form, for the “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios Strategic options for South Africa” document (Attached as annexure).

The “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios – Technical Report”, a 153 page report on the LTMS
research. This document is also supported by technical reports on: Energy emissions; Nonenergy emissions; Macro-economic analysis; and Climate impacts.
The LTMS developed two scenarios that provide the “envelope” for possible greenhouse gas
mitigation interventions as illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2: The two greenhouse gas emission scenarios 2003 - 2050
The upper limit of the intervention envelope has been called the “Growth Without Constraints”
Scenario and it answers the question “what would our economy and its greenhouse gas emissions
look like if, in 2050 (and beyond), South Africa was not subject to any climate change constraint, if
there were no climate impacts highly damaging to the economy, if there was no significant oil
constraint, and if we made our choices to energise our economy purely on least-cost grounds?” In
this Scenario, South Africa’s emissions in the base year, 2003, stand at 440 megatons of CO 2-eq. By
2050, our emissions have quadrupled to around 1600 Mt.
The lower limit of the intervention envelope has been called the “Required By Science” Scenario and
it answers the question “what would our economy and its greenhouse gas emissions look like if, by
2050, South Africa had all the resources and technology readily at its disposal to contribute
significantly to the global mitigation effort that is required to stabilise the climate, what would have
to be achieved and what would the implications be if South Africa charted this course from 2007
onwards?” Globally, what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us is that reductions
by 2100 of between -60% to -80% from 1990 levels must be achieved. The burden sharing between
nations of this target is the subject of the international negotiations. In this Scenario, the burden
taken up by South Africa is not exact, but is seen rather as a target band ranging between -30% and 40% from 2003 levels by 2050, assuming a burden-sharing discount, which, in itself, was considered
to be tough to negotiate.
A further trajectory, called Current Development Plans is added - this assumes that government
policy in place at the time of the study is implemented (e.g. renewable energy targets, energy
efficiency accords, etc.). For example, energy efficiency interventions achieve a final energy demand
reduction of 12% by 2015. The target of 10 000 GWh renewable energy contribution to final energy
consumption by 2013 is also included. When simply extended to 2050, however, the diagram
illustrates that the trajectory under the Growth without Constraints story would not be radically
changed: it would still continue climbing, and would still see emissions reach a point above 1500 Mt.
Within this envelope, three strategic options were considered to drive greenhouse gas emissions
from the Growth Without Constraints Scenario to the Required By Science Scenario as illustrated in
Figure 3.
In the first of the strategic options, known as the “Start Now” option, mitigation actions are
suggested that are implemented through state action. The actions suggested should be taken for
good economic reasons and other sustainable development co-benefits, quite independent of
climate change. As a package this option saves money over time, even if pushed right along to 2050.
In the second strategic option, the “Scale-Up” option, South Africa increases its level of ambition, and
achieves it through regulatory decision. The effect of this on the emissions trajectory can be seen in
Figure 3, and gets about halfway to the objective if taken through to 2050.
Figure 3: The strategic options described by the LTMS
The third option, the “Use The Market” option, aims to get the market to work and promote the
uptake of the accelerated technologies and social behaviour through incentives and taxes. At the tax
levels considered here, Use the Market results in emissions reductions beyond those seen in Scale
Up. Use the Market thus includes a package that prepares South Africa to make use of economic
instruments – both taxes and incentives – to shift patterns of domestic investment. The key driver of
Use the Market is a CO2 tax. This price change makes the use of fossil fuels much less attractive, and
induces an indirect effect of greater investment in low-carbon technologies.
Given the above, the key findings of the LTMS process are:

Growing without carbon constraints may be good for South Africa’s economic growth, but will
result in rapidly increasing emissions. A four-fold increase in emission by 2050 is likely to be
unacceptable to the international community and is a high-risk approach on other grounds,
such as rising oil prices and carbon constraints in trade.

If all countries, including high emitters in the developing word, adopted this approach, climate
change impacts in South Africa would be extensive.

A massive effort by South Africa would be required to achieve emissions reduction sufficient to
meet the Required By Science target. The gap between where South Africa’s emissions are
going and where they need to go is large.

Certain quantifiable strategic mitigation options are immediately implementable, even if they
require significant effort. These include energy efficiency, especially in industry; electricity
supply options; carbon capture and storage (CCS); transport efficiency and shifts; peopleoriented strategies; supported by awareness. These potential strategies show good emissions
reduction results: with costs to the economy range from affordable to significant.

Within the quantifiable mitigation strategies, South Africa can choose both regulatory and
economic instruments. Neither of these, however, completely closes the gap. With an
escalating tax, economic instruments go the furthest in closing the gap – by almost threequarters. But they are not intrinsically more effective than regulation.

Hence much preparation of a range of further, more uncertain, and for now, less understood
actions need immediate exploration. These range from future technology to changes in social
behaviour.

Key to success will be strong, committed South African / national leadership coupled with
international alignment and active support.
In conclusion, the full implications for negotiators on the international front need to be further
explored by the delegation. The LTMS process has analysed a range of quantifiable mitigation
objectives, which provide information for South Africa to negotiate. For domestic policy makers,
business leaders and leaders in South African society, LTMS has revealed that action will be required
across the board, and that extensive further work is required.
2.1.4 The 2007 ANC Climate Change Resolution
A few weeks following the sign-off of the LTMS, the ANC made a strong climate change resolution at
its 52nd National Conference in Polokwane. This resolution included –

Recognising that climate change is a new threat on a global scale and poses an enormous
burden upon South Africans and Africans as a whole because we are the most vulnerable to
the effects of climate change. The risks to the poor are the greatest.

Recognising that the evidence for climate change is indisputable and that immediate action by
all governments and the public as a whole is needed.

Setting a target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as part of our responsibility to
protect the environment and promote sustainable development, and to participate in sharing
the burden with the global community under a common framework of action.

Supporting the meeting of the target through: a) energy efficiency improvements in industry,
in households and by setting vehicle fuel efficiency standards; b) diversifying energy sources
away from coal, including through nuclear energy and renewables - especially solar power; c)
putting a price on the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases; d) allocating
significant additional resources for the research and development of innovative clean and lowcarbon technologies, including by retrofitting existing technologies; e) further exploration and
development of carbon capture and storage methods; f) the introduction of a tariff system
that promotes the efficient use of electricity; and g) the promotion of affordable public
transport, the expansion of rail logistics and the reversal of the apartheid spatial legacy.

Escalating our national efforts towards the realisation of a greater contribution of renewable
energy sources, including solar and wind power, as part of an ambitious renewable energy
target. The hydroelectric potential of the SADC region should be included in our plans.

Further ensuring that our economy benefits from the global growth potential of the renewable
energy sector, including through the provision of incentives for investment in renewable
energy infrastructure as well as human resources to ensure that institutions and companies
are ready to take full advantage of renewable energy opportunities. Moreover to promote the
realignment of institutional mechanisms which will fast-track the utilisation of renewable
energy to mitigate the climate change effects, including the implementation of a feed-in tariff.

Moving to an energy efficient economy should take due regard of the imperative to create
jobs. Consideration should be given to launch a green jobs programme.

Mobilising the public, business and other players to act responsibly and save energy both as
collectives and in their individual capacity, including through a mandatory national energy
efficiency programme. Industrial and commercial buildings have particular potential for
efficiency improvements. The government, as a huge consumer of electricity, has a special
responsibility in this regard. Government buildings and installations must be given mandatory
targets to become energy efficient.

Encouraging further and increased efforts to raise public awareness about energy saving.
Energy saved reduces both greenhouse gases and the need to build new power plants.

Escalating our efforts to encourage efficiency in the consumption of energy, including through
the integration of energy-saving technologies into our social programmes and by leading
campaigns to encourage environmental and energy-conscious consumer behaviour.

Further integrating climate change considerations with sustainable development strategies,
the science and technology agenda, integrated energy planning, transport policy and the
evolving industrial policy. In this context to maximise the integration of a full cost accounted
economy in which the life cycle of products is internalised and the goal of zero waste
production is pursued.

Continue to pro-actively build our capacity, and develop a comprehensive strategy, to adapt to
the inevitable impacts of climate change, including in the roll-out of basic services,
infrastructure planning, agriculture, biodiversity, water resource management and in the
health sector.

Introducing environmental studies and the appreciation of nature in the school curriculum,
and,

Building partnerships between state institutions, business, trade unions, civil society and
communities to address these challenges together.
With this, it was clear that, not only had climate change moved well up the political agenda, but that
there was strong support and political will for the development of a progressive national climate
change response policy.
2.2
The National Climate Change Response Policy
2.2.1 The July 2008 Cabinet Decisions
In July 2008, the ANC’s Climate Change Resolution at its 52nd National Conference 2007, the LTMS
conclusions and other climate change related submissions, were discussed and debated at the
Cabinet Lekgotla and the following Cabinet decisions and/or policy directions were announced by the
Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism on 29 July 2008.
Firstly, the Cabinet approved six broad policy directions themes to be addressed in a National Climate
Change Response Policy:

Theme 1: GHG emission reductions and limits – under this theme climate change mitigation
interventions should be informed by, and monitored and measured against a “peak, plateau
and decline” emission trajectory where greenhouse gas emissions stop growing (start of
plateau) in 2020-25 and begin declining in absolute terms (end of plateau) in 2030-35.

Theme 2: Build on, strengthen and/or scale up current initiatives – under this theme current
energy efficiency and electricity demand-side management initiatives and interventions must
be scaled-up and reinforced through available regulatory instruments and other appropriate
mechanisms (made mandatory) and, based on the electricity-crisis response, government’s
energy efficiency policies and strategies must be continuously reviewed and amended to
reflect more ambitious national targets aligned with the LTMS. In addition, Treasury will study
a carbon tax in the range modelled by the LTMS, starting at low levels soon and escalating to
higher levels by 2018/ 2020, with sensitivity to higher and lower tax levels, and report to
Cabinet on its findings.

Theme 3: Implementing the “Business Unusual” Call for Action – under this theme the
renewable energy sector is identified as a key “business unusual” growth sector and policies
and measures are put in place to meet a more ambitious national target for renewable energy.
In committing to national GHG emission limitation and reduction targets, government must
promote the transition to a low-carbon economy and society and all policy and other decisions
that may have an impact on South Africa’s GHG emissions must take this commitment into
regard. In addition, the transport sector is identified as another key “business unusual” growth
sector and policies and measures are put in place to meet ambitious and mandatory national
targets for the reduction of GHG emissions from this sector.

Theme 4: Preparing for the future – under this theme there is increased support for the new
and ambitious research and development targets that are being set, especially in the field of
carbon-friendly technologies – with the focus on the renewable energy and transport sectors.
Formal and informal forms of education and outreach are used to encourage the behavioural
changes required to support the efficient and effective implementation of the climate change
response policy.

Theme 5: Vulnerability and Adaptation – under this theme South Africa continues to identify
and describe its vulnerabilities to climate change, we describe and prioritise what adaptation
interventions must be initiated, who should be driving these interventions and how
implementation will be monitored and affected government departments will ensure that
climate change adaptation in their sectors are included as departmental key performance
areas.

Theme 6: Alignment, Coordination and Cooperation – under this final theme the roles and
responsibilities of all stakeholders, particularly the organs of state in all three spheres of
government, will be clearly defined and articulated, the structures required to ensure
alignment, coordination and cooperation will be clearly defined and articulated and climate
change response policies and measures are mainstreamed within existing alignment,
coordination and cooperation structures.
Secondly, the Cabinet also approved, amongst others, the following key messages that reinforce or
detail what needs to be included in the climate change response policy:

The Socio-economic transition – a transition to climate resilient and low-carbon economy and
society that balances our mitigation and adaptation response and, in the long-term, redefining
our competitive advantage and structurally transforming the economy by shifting from an
energy-intensive to a climate-friendly path as part of a pro-growth, pro-development and projobs strategy.

2°C - our climate response policy, built on the six pillars (themes) described above, will be
informed by what is required by science – to limit global temperature increase to Below 2°C
above pre-industrial levels.

Adapt to the inevitable - continue to pro-actively build the knowledge base and our capacity to
adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change, most importantly by enhancing early
warning and disaster reduction systems and in the roll-out of basic services, infrastructure
planning, agriculture, biodiversity, water resource management and in the health sector.

GHG Reduction and Limits - GHG emissions must peak, plateau and decline - stop growing at
the latest by 2020-2025, stabilise for up to ten years, then decline in absolute terms.

6 Policy Themes - implementing policy under the six themes will lay the basis for measurable,
reportable and verifiable domestic emission reduction and limitation outcomes.

Contribution to the global efforts - This would constitute a fair and meaningful contribution to
the global efforts, demonstrating leadership in the multi-lateral system by committing to a
“substantial deviation from baseline”, enabled by international funding and technology.
Finally, the Minister described a number of “immediate mitigation tasks” including –

Start Now based on accelerated energy efficiency and conservation across all sectors (industry,
commerce, transport, residential – incl. more stringent building standards).

Invest in Reach for the Goal by setting ambitious research & development targets focussing on
carbon-friendly technologies, identifying new resources and affecting behavioural change.

Combine regulatory mechanisms under Scale Up and economic instruments (taxes and
incentives) under Use the Market with a view to -

Mandatory energy efficiency targets – ambitious and mandatory (as distinct from voluntary)
targets for energy efficiency and in other sub-national sectors. In the next few months each
sector will be required to do work to enable it to decide on actions and targets in relation to
this overall goal. Based on the electricity-crisis response, government’s energy efficiency
policies and strategies must be continuously reviewed and amended to reflect more ambitious
national targets aligned with the LTMS.

Economic Instruments - Increasing the price on carbon through an escalating CO2 tax, or
alternative market mechanism.

Favouring energy-efficient industry - Introducing industrial policy that favours sectors using
less energy per unit of economic output and building domestic industries in these emerging
sectors.

Promoting carbon capture and storage - Exploring and developing carbon capture and storage
(CCS) for coal fired power stations and all coal-to-liquid (CTL) plants, and not approving new
coal fired power stations without carbon capture readiness.

Diversifying the energy mix and laying the basis for a net zero-carbon electricity sector in the
long term. Diversifying the energy mix away from coal whilst shifting to cleaner coal, e.g. by
introducing more stringent thermal efficiency and emissions standards for coal fired power
stations. Setting similar targets for electricity generated from both renewable and nuclear
energy sources by the end of the next two decades. Incentivising renewable energy through
feed-in tariffs.

Reducing transport emissions - Setting ambitious and where appropriate mandatory national
targets for the reduction of transport emissions, including through stringent and escalating
fuel efficiency standards, facilitating passenger modal shifts towards public transport and the
aggressive promotion of hybrids and electric vehicles.
2.2.2 The 2009 Summit2
From 3-6 March 2009, South Africans from all spheres of life again came together in Midrand to
initiate a consultative process to develop the South African Climate Change Response Policy. During
the Climate Change Summit 2009, nearly 900 representatives from government, business, the
scientific and academic communities, and civil society and over 150 “virtual participants” linked
through the Internet –

2
considered the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th Assessment Report and
The following section is based on: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. 2009. Towards an
Effective South African Climate Change Response Policy - Conference Statement, 6 March 2009.
more recent international and local science relating to climate change;

discussed and debated the potential social and economic vulnerabilities and impacts
associated with the compelling scientific evidence of climate change;

discussed and debated the potential policy responses to these key vulnerabilities and impacts,
in particular for the poor, women and youth;

discussed and debated the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions internationally and
locally as well as the costs of both action and inaction;

considered the outcomes of work done since the 2005 National Climate Change Conference,
including the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS), the Climate Change R&D Strategy, the
Technology Needs Assessment, the 2000 Greenhouse gas inventory and the initiation of the
2nd National Communication;

discussed and debated the international implications of South Africa’s response in line with the
need for the country to shoulder its fair share of responsibility as part of an effective global
response; and

discussed and debated the process of developing an integrated, cohesive, coherent and
effective National Climate Change Response
Policy.
In President Kgalema Motlanthe’s words “Acting
now on climate change presents the best possibility
to overcome the challenges of the global economic
crisis through investment in pro-poor, job creating
and sustainable ‘green growth’”.
The Summit agreed that climate change is one of
the greatest threats to our planet and to our
people. The Summit also agreed that climate
change, if un-mitigated, also has the potential to
undo or undermine many of the positive advances
made in meeting South Africa’s own development Figure 4: The 2009 Climate Change Policy
goals and the Millennium Development Goals.
Summit branding
The gathering affirmed South Africa’s commitment and determination to act on climate change and
to shape policy informed by the best-available science.
In opening the Climate Change Summit 2009, President Kgalema Motlanthe took the lead. He
expressed his wish that “the deliberations of the Summit will provide recommendations that could
form the basis of giving effect to Cabinet’s mandate of formulating a sound policy framework for a
transition to a low-carbon economy.” He also reiterated that “Government has agreed to a strategic
policy framework for our emissions to peak between 2020 and 2025, and then stabilise for a decade,
before declining in absolute terms towards mid-century.”
In his Keynote Address on the international negotiations context, Minister Marthinus van Schalkwyk
reiterated that “no nation has a plausible excuse for not doing its fair share`”, that this fair share is
“inextricably linked to questions of global equity” and that “the global mitigation effort should be
informed by the most ambitious IPCC scenario for climate stabilisation”. He concluded that “we
cannot allow ourselves to dither at the point when action and implementation are most critical”.
Emissions from the energy supply and use (excluding transport emissions) account for over 70% of
South Africa’s total greenhouse gas emissions. In her statement on mitigation in the energy sector,
Minister Buyelwa Sonjica noted “the need to step up implementation to address greenhouse gas
emissions,” including the importance of demand-side management measures, energy efficiency,
Working for Energy, investments in renewable energy and a Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff to
“stimulate the renewable energy market in South Africa.”
Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector account for around 12% of South Africa’s total
greenhouse gas emissions. In a statement on behalf of Minister Jeff Radebe, a transport modal shift,
e.g. from private cars to public transport and from road to rail, was supported. He further stated that
“the heart of our transport strategy is putting sustained, long-term investment into public transport
to improve the reliability of journeys by rail, by taxis, and by bus, giving more people a real
alternative to travel by car – but also meeting our obligations on carbon emissions.”
In her statement on Government’s vision on climate change adaptation, Minister Lindiwe Hendricks
noted the dual challenge of responding to climate change, namely “to avoid the unmanageable
through mitigation; and manage the unavoidable through adaptation.” She stressed that climate
change considerations must be integrated into the Water for Growth and Development Strategy.
Councillor Sophie Molokoane-Machika, the Deputy Chairperson of the South African Local
Government Association (SALGA), stated that local government is “strategically positioned to be in
the frontline in tackling climate change.”
The CEO of Business Unity South Africa (BUSA), Mr Jerry Vilakazi, pointed out business and industry’s
commitment to: “(i) participating in the debate around instruments which promote cost effective
carbon reduction; (ii) providing GHG emission information to the National Inventory; (iii) exploring
every means of improving energy efficiency; and (iv) incorporating mitigation into the Department of
Trade and Industry’s Industrial Policy Action Plan.”
Mr. Bheki Ntshalintshali, the Deputy General Secretary of the Congress of South African Trade Unions
(Cosatu), iterated that climate action is a government-wide responsibility that requires “a strong and
innovative multilateral solution”. He further stated “green jobs can make a major contribution to
clean economic growth, development and poverty reduction.”
Ms Dora Lebelo, representing broader civil society in the climate change sector, presented the
following vision: “We must ensure that vulnerable people and fragile ecosystems are protected from
the impacts of climate change and not burdened with the costs of climate change or response
measures” and advocated for a national adaptation fund and full evaluation of ecosystem services.
The science day further considered the technologies, policies and investments that would be
required for mitigation and to put our country on a path to a low carbon economy and society. The
Summit highlighted the urgent need to develop the human and institutional capacity to address
these challenges and make full use of the opportunities.
The Summit also gave a platform to eminent scientists who outlined the present and likely impacts of
climate change on South Africa. These include: changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the
distribution, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; reduced agricultural crop yields
impacting on food security; potential species extinction; increased growth rates of invasive species;
and an increase in the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, including malaria. In all of these
circumstances it is the poor who will be worst affected.
Following active and vigorous discussions and debates around South Africa’s policy response to
climate change, there was widespread consensus on:

pursuing what is required by science, consistent with the lowest stabilisation levels assessed by
IPCC.

the transition to a climate-resilient and low-carbon economy and society.

placing the climate change response in the context of equity, sustainable development and
poverty eradication.

a strong science-policy interface.

balancing our adaptation and mitigation responses and integrating adaptation into
development planning.

building climate resilience at a local level, including prioritisation of energy access for the poor.

the scaling-up of renewable energies and energy efficiency.

energy efficiency standards for industrial equipment and processes.

the need for integrated energy planning.

enhanced government coordination and policy alignment.

putting on a price on carbon (although, the most appropriate mix of instruments (markets,
taxes, incentives and GHG standards) to achieve this requires further work – see below).

most participants agreed on the need to fast-track the implementation of the favourable tax
treatment for carbon credits from Clean Development Mechanism projects.

massively up-scaled public education, awareness, media and information on climate change.

advancing gender mainstreaming as a critical dimension of poverty eradication, sustainable
development and adaptation to climate change.

mobilising the resources required, including the significant investment in R&D for new
technologies.
The Summit also provided a space for the expression of differing views and the following areas of
divergence were identified as requiring more discussions:

The nature of the country’s energy mix, the meaning of ‘cleaner energy’, the transparency of
integrated energy planning and optimal institutional arrangements. In particular, our approach
to coal based electricity, nuclear roll-out and the feasibility of renewable energy technologies
to address base load demand were hotly debated.

Transparency in the decision-making process was stressed by most participants, with several
calling for an independent review of the Eskom new build programme in the light of climate
change considerations.

On economic instruments, most participants felt that taxes, emissions trading, incentives and
subsidies could play a role. Some felt that a double dividend (both GHG emission reductions
and socio-economic benefits) could be achieved by recycling the revenues of a carbon tax or
auctioning allowances for domestic GHG emissions trading, while others cautioned about the
potential impacts of increased taxes in the current financial context, as well as concerns about
ear-marking of revenues. Some participants proposed a pilot phase for domestic emissions
trading, which could be voluntary initially and develop into a mandatory cap-and-trade system.
Despite these differences, the Summit agreed on a number of immediate priorities and noted that to
kick-start the transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society, the summit
agreed that during the policy development process, existing work and high priority interventions
should continue, including:

Mandatory standards for energy efficiency, including standards for commercial and residential
buildings, fuel efficiency standards

Scaling up of renewable energy, including: the roll out/scaling up of solar water heaters and
building of a local industry; finalising and implementing a renewable energy feed-in tariff at a
level adequate to incentivise large-scale investment; and Working for Energy and other
initiatives to create green jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Working for Adaptation – developing a green jobs programme to build climate resilience

Ensuring that the Industrial Policy Action Plan review includes promotion of green technologies
to address both adaptation and mitigation

Accelerating the development of the Risk and Vulnerability Atlas to inform adaptation
responses and planning

Developing the atlas of sites for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and establishing a CCS
centre

Finalising the Greenhouse Gas Inventory and the Second National Communications for
submission to the UNFCCC

Completion of the Treasury report on options to implement a price on carbon this year

Developing regulations for mandatory emissions monitoring and reporting

Convening by Government of a group to ramp up efforts on education, public awareness,
media and public awareness
In taking the policy development process further, issues and areas of work were identified for key
sectors and stakeholders as follows –

The National Climate Change Response Policy will be developed through a participatory, multistakeholder, consultative and iterative process.

Issues raised during the Climate Change Summit 2009 must be addressed in a transparent
manner and fed into the policy development process

All key affected national departments must initiate and facilitate the development of the
sector-specific components of the National Climate Change Response Policy that fall within
their mandate, jurisdiction or sphere of influence

Local government, through the South African Local Government Association and associated
provincial associations, must initiate and facilitate the development of the municipal
components of the National Climate Change Response Policy that fall within their mandate,
jurisdiction or sphere of influence, including undertaking vulnerability and risk assessments in
their areas and the integration of climate adaptation and mitigation actions into Integrated
Development Plans;

Provincial government must initiate and facilitate the development of the provincial aspects of
the National Climate Change Response Policy that fall within their mandate, jurisdiction or
sphere of influence, in particular the integration of climate change issues into provincial spatial
and strategic plans;

The Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism will coordinate the policy development
process using established inter-governmental and multi-stakeholder coordination forums and
mechanisms and will ensure that all sector inputs are properly reflected in the evolving policy.

Business commits to engaging within its constituency to develop consensus inputs into the
policy process and to work actively with Government and other stakeholders to contribute to a
sound climate change response policy. Business also commits to increase its efforts within its
constituency to achieve higher levels of energy efficiency, to work with DEAT on the collection
of GHG emission data for the 2000 GHG inventory and establish a sustainable GHG inventory
management system, to work with the dti to develop sectoral mitigation actions that will be
contributed to the policy process. Business will also continue with initiatives to engage
international counterparts in the climate change debate to ensure that the interests of
business in the developing world are well understood and to encourage its members to
increase participation in voluntary climate change response reporting initiatives like the carbon
disclosure project.

Civil society, labour and the faith communities will continue to raise public awareness and
motivate individuals, institutions and authorities to take actions to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, to critically evaluate and
respond to the initiatives of government and the private sector, and to build the capacity of
civil society to participate constructively in a consultative process to develop a national climate
change response policy.

The climate change science community will work together to improve projections of climate
variability, climate change and their impacts, key vulnerabilities in affected sectors and
communities, and exploration of appropriate mitigation and adaptation responses and their
implementation. They will continue to enhance their role in building South Africa’s capacity in
climate change science and the broader engagement of its citizens in the related socioeconomic challenges and opportunities.

All Summit participants will engage with, and mobilise, their colleagues and/or constituencies
to play an active role in the policy development process.
2.2.3 Current policy positions
[This is currently a ‘moving target’ that perhaps should wait until the Policy Green Paper is published
for comment around July??]
2.3
South Africa and the international negotiations3
2.3.1 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
The legal framework for the international climate change negotiations is the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which came into force in 1994, and sets
commitments, principles and an ultimate objective for dealing with a problem which has potential
global consequences. The UNFCCC was one of three conventions adopted at the 1992 “Rio Earth
Summit”. South Africa ratified the UNFCCC in August 1997. The objective of the Convention has 2
parts:

Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Ensuring that this takes place within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable sustainable
economic development
The Convention distinguishes between (i) developed countries and economies in transition (Annex I
Parties, AI) and (ii) developing countries (so-called Non Annex 1 Parties Non AI); and it identifies the
major areas of work to address climate change, namely:

Mitigation of greenhouse gases (currently 6 gases identified)

Adaptation to the impacts of unavoidable climate change
In 1997 the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated as a further step, setting legally binding targets and
timeframes for reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases by Annex I Parties (developed
countries), and providing for 3 market based trading and cooperation mechanisms as well as
verification and compliance mechanisms. The legally binding target for Annex I Parties as a group for
the first commitment period (2008-12) is 5% below 1990 levels. The Kyoto Protocol came into force
in 2005.
3
This section is based on: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2009a. The National Climate
Change Response Policy - Discussion Document for the 2009 National Climate Change Response Policy
development Summit, Gallagher Convention Centre, Midrand, 3-6 March 2009.
2.3.2 South Africa and the UNFCCC
South Africa’s point of departure for engaging in the climate change discussions has been that the
UNFCCC is the only legitimate forum for international negotiations on climate change. Other forums
in which international discussions on climate change are taking place, such as the MEF, the G8, the
G20 etc., can only make a contribution to the formal UNFCCC process. This is an issue broader than
climate – South Africa does not accept, on principle, any politics of exclusion and as a matter of
foreign policy is committed to the multi-lateral process under the United Nations.
2.3.3 Current status of negotiations
The core focus of the current negotiations is on the future structure and content of an international
climate change solution which details “who does what” and “who pays for what”. The key challenge
of the negotiation is how to ensure a fair and equitable outcome, and how to give expression and
content to the UNFCCC key principles of “equity” and “common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities”, as the basis to defend South Africa’s national interest to ensure that the
international climate change regime provides developing countries with the “carbon space, the time
and the financial and technology resources” to develop, as well as taking the action that would mean
that the impacts of climate change are as minimal as possible.
The current negotiations are taking place under the 2-track mandate agreed in Montreal in 2005 and
reinforced through the Bali Roadmap in 2007. This mandate gives expression to the principle of
“common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” by setting up a structurally
balanced negotiation in 2 tracks: 1 track under the Convention and another under its Kyoto Protocol,
to reach agreement on:

Developed countries internationally legally binding commitments to emissions reductions,
specifically: (i) quantified emission reduction commitments for developed countries that are
Party to the Kyoto Protocol (the Kyoto Track); (ii) comparable binding quantified emission
reduction commitments under the UNFCCC for developed countries that have not joined the
Kyoto Protocol, specifically for the USA (a part of the Convention track);

Developing countries contribution through enhanced implementation of adaptation (with
financial and technological support), and measurable, reportable and verifiable mitigation
action by developing countries, conditional on technology, finance and capacity building from
developed countries, also measurable, reportable and verifiable (Convention Track).
This 2-track balance in the negotiations has been severely weakened by developed countries insisting
on collapsing the Convention and Kyoto Protocol negotiation tracks into a single track outcome,
thereby undermining the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities”.
2.3.4 Key discussion/negotiation issues
2.3.4.1 Adaptation
The socio-economic impacts of climate change are predicted to be severe for South Africa and
disastrous for Africa, and will require extensive action to adjust and adapt to a changing climate. The
deal must therefore deliver a comprehensive international programme on adaptation that provides
access to significantly up-scaled finance, technology and capacity building for all developing
countries, recognising the particular vulnerability of countries in Africa.
2.3.4.2 Mitigation by developed countries
South Africa seeks an outcome that would restrict the global temperature increase to a maximum of
2 degrees Celsius, thereby limiting the impacts of climate change. This requires that, in accordance
with the science and in line with their historical responsibility for emissions, all developed countries
(as listed in Annex I of the Convention) must commit to ambitious, economy-wide legally binding
emission reduction targets, of at least 40% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. Annex 1 Parties to
the Kyoto Protocol must take these commitments for the 2nd and subsequent commitment periods
under the Kyoto track. Annex 1 Parties that have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol (particularly the
USA) must be brought into a framework of comparable legally binding emission reduction targets
under the Convention track.
2.3.4.3 Mitigation by developing countries
South Africa recognises that the 2oC goal cannot be achieved by one part of the world on its own. The
IPCC scientific assessment requires both deep absolute cuts in Annex I countries (consistent with
their historical responsibility) and a decline in emissions relative to business as usual in some
developing regions by 2020 and in all regions by 2050 (consistent with responsibility for the future).
South Africa, along with other developing countries, is already taking leadership to reduce its
emissions using its’ own limited resources, but in order to undertake increased levels of mitigation
effort it must be supported and enabled, through technology, finance and capacity building. The deal
must therefore deliver a framework for nationally appropriate mitigation action by developing
countries, supported and enabled by finance, technology and capacity building, all of which are
measured, reported and verified.
2.3.4.4 Finance, technology and capacity building
Climate change threatens to undermine many of the development objectives of countries in Africa
and in the rest of the developing world, in particular in the areas of water, energy, health and
agriculture. In order to enable lower carbon and resource efficient sustainable development in the
developing world, a climate change agreement requires developed countries to comply with their
obligations under article 4 of the Convention, on provision of finance, as well as development,
transfer and diffusion of technology. Therefore, the deal must deliver a significantly up-scaled
package of new and additional finance and technology, as well as the necessary transparent,
efficient, effective and geographically balanced institutional arrangements for delivery. In this
package, there must be a prominent role for public finance including grant finance as well as
concessional loan financing.
2.3.5 The prognosis of what is achievable
Following COP 15 held in Copenhagen in December 2009 and the failure to achieve a legally binding
and comprehensive outcome, the core issues in the negotiations remain unresolved. It is likely that
achieving the desired deal is likely to be extremely difficult and that we should realistically expect
that final agreements may only be reached in South Africa in 2011.
In order to move towards this agreement, South Africa would require, at a minimum during the
course of 2010, the operationalisation of some practical elements of the Copenhagen Accord. This
should include:

Finance: short-term finance of at least $10 billion this year and each of the next two, delivered
through the Copenhagen Fund. For long-term finance, the High Level Panel should report on its
findings on sources of finance and share of contributions.

Technology: operationalisation of the technology mechanism

Adaptation: finalisation of the adaptation framework and associated programmes, with a longterm finance commitment.

Mitigation – A1: the rules relating to land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), dubious
mitigation accounting (so called “hot air”) and off-sets need to be clarified to properly
understand how low their targets are.

Mitigation – NA1: Elaborate Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and the
support they require; launch a register for NAMAs; agree guidelines and full costs for National
Communications; establish agreed guidelines for Monitoring Reporting and Verification and ;
finalise funding for REDD+.(Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation).

Measuring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV): Establish verification mechanisms for the finance
and technology that is provided by developed, to developing countries to enable their
mitigation efforts.
In addition to this incremental progress, there must be progress in at least initiating discussions on a
globally agreed Legally Binding Outcome. The question of the legal form of a final outcome of the
climate change negotiations remains unresolved.
2.3.6 The Copenhagen Accord and South Africa’s Listing
On the eve of the UN climate negotiations in Copenhagen (December 2009), the South African
Presidency announced that “South Africa will undertake mitigation actions which will result in a
deviation below the current emissions baseline of around 34% by 2020 and by around 42% by 2025”
(The Presidency, 2009). The same numbers were submitted by South Africa to the UNFCCC
Secretariat on 29 January 2010, in the context of the political agreement reflected in the Copenhagen
Accord, and restating the same conditions, namely –

The pledge was conditional on two factors – a fair, effective and inclusive deal being reached in
Copenhagen/Mexico, and support from developed countries

Provision of significantly scaled-up, binding public funding

Binding commitment by developed countries to technology development, transfer and
diffusion, including the climate-friendly energy technologies that SA needs to achieve the
deviation

Support to enhance the institutional capacities in SA need to implement the NAMAs

SA’s approach is based on science. In particular, SA recognises that the lowest stabilisation
levels assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment
Report cannot be achieved without a) developed countries taking responsibility for historical
emissions, and b) the common and differentiated responsibility of both developed and
developing countries of their share of emissions into the future

Existing action should be recognised and supported by the international community: energy
efficiency in commerce, energy and industry; mechanisms to support the roll-out of
renewables and alternative energies; working towards integrated rapid transit systems; and
the roll out of solar water heaters
The Copenhagen listing recognises the mitigation potential and potential low carbon solutions
identified in the Long Term Mitigation Scenario (LTMS) study could be realised, contributing to a
Green Economy and also takes forward the work of the LTMS, notably looking at a shorter time
frame (2020 and 2025 as opposed to 2050). This medium-term time-frame aligns the initial challenge
arising from LTMS, for GHG emissions to peak between 2020 and 2025. The listing took into account
developments since the work was published in 2007: incorporating the Integrated Resource Plan for
the Electricity Sector (December 2009), the approval of concessional loan finance by the Clean
Technology Fund, and the World Bank for climate friendly developments in the energy sector.
2.4
Energy – arguably the most significant national issue impacting on the local context
In terms of the National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act (Act No. 39 of 2004), a
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) means gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and
anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation, and includes carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The GHGs contributing to South Africa’s GHG profile are
mostly CO2, (~80%), CH4 (~15%) and N2O (~5%).
As illustrated in Figure 5, the main sources of South Africa’s GHGs are: energy-related emissions
(~80%); emissions from industrial processes and product use (~15%); emissions from agriculture,
forestry and land use (~6%); and emissions from waste and other sources of emissions (~2%).
The main sources of South Africa’s energy-related GHG emissions are: emissions from energy
industries, e.g. the burning of coal to make electricity (~62%, ~48% of total); fugitive emissions from
fossil fuels, e.g. CH4 released during coal mining (~12%, ~9% of total ); emissions from transport, e.g.
the use of petrol or diesel in cars and trucks (~11%, ~9% of total); emissions from energy production
in the manufacturing and construction industries, e.g. coal-fired industrial boilers (~11%, ~9% of
total); and other energy-related emissions, including commercial/institutional, residential,
agriculture, forestry, fishing and others (~4%, ~3% of total).
Figure 5: The South African greenhouse gas emission profile, base year 2000 (Department of
Environmental Affairs, 2009)
In 1950, South Africa was emitting around 60 million tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq)
GHGs into the atmosphere per year (Mt/annum) – about 90% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s total emissions
and about the same as what India was emitting each year (Letete, T., Guma, M. & Marquard, A.
2010). However, by 1990, South Africa was emitting 347 Mt CO2-eq/annum – about 70% of SubSaharan Africa’s total emissions and about 33% of what India was emitting each year (Letete, et.al.,
2010).
In 1995, South Africa was emitting less than 1% of global GHG emissions, as compared to, say, the
USA’s 15%, Brazil’s 6%, EU’s 14%, China’s 12% and India’s 5% (Letete, et.al., 2010). However, in terms
of global cumulative GHG emissions from 1950 to 2000, South Africa is ranked as the 21 st highest
emitter (ranked 63 when measuring Mt CO2-eq/capita) (Letete, et.al., 2010) and, in terms of global
cumulative energy-related GHG emissions from 1950 to 2000, South Africa is ranked as the 14 th
highest energy-related emitter (ranked 46 when measuring Mt CO2-eq/capita) (Letete, et.al., 2010).
In terms of global cumulative energy-related GHG emissions from 1950 to 2000, South Africa’s Mt
CO2-eq/capita emissions are: 74% higher than the global average; 344% higher than China; 471%
higher than Brazil; 900% higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa; 33% lower than the EU; and
70% lower than the USA (Letete, et.al., 2010).
In 2000, South Africa was ranked as the 21st highest emitter (ranked 63 when measuring Mt CO2-
and as the 14th highest energy-related emitter (ranked 39 when measuring Mt CO2eq/capita) (Letete, et.al., 2010). In 2000, South Africa’s energy-related Mt CO2-eq/GDPppp (2000 US$)
were: 54% higher than the global average; 21% higher than China; 41% higher than the USA; 97%
higher than India, 212% higher than Brazil; and 1575% higher than the average for Sub-Saharan
Africa (Letete, et.al., 2010).
eq/capita)
What this means is that, whichever way you look at it, South Africa’s almost total reliance on fossil
fuels makes it one of the top ranking global climate changers.
Importantly, the GHG emission profile of South African cities is likely to be very similar to the national
profile.
What this then means for Low Carbon Cities, is that city mitigation efforts will have to consider, at
least, the various mitigation interventions investigated in the LTMS as illustrated in Figure 6.
Figure 6: The LTMS mitigation "wedges" (Note: The large wedges at left are on a scale up to 300 Mt CO 2eq; the middle wedges up to 50 Mt and the small wedges at right up to 10 Mt.)
However, from this it should be clear that, unless cities actively engage in the energy supply side,
their efforts are likely to be largely limited to the “small” and “medium wedges”.
To further emphasise this point, Table 1 and Figure 3 summarise the results of an, as yet,
unpublished exercise, based on the LTMS, showing how a combination of various mitigation
interventions (so-called NAMAs) may contribute to meeting South Africa’s Copenhagen Accord
undertaking of “…a deviation below the current emissions baseline of around 34% by 2020 and by
around 42% by 2025”.
From this it appears clear that between 20 to 30% of the reductions are due to “lower CO2 electricity
supply” – something cities have little control over unless, as in the past, municipalities actively
involve themselves in electricity supply.
Table 1: Unpacking the Copenhagen mitigation undertakings - Deviation below Business-as-Usual (BAU)
from contributions by various nationally appropriate mitigation actions
BAU:
Percentage
Percentage of total
Projected
Deviation:
deviation below
reduction
Mitigation Intervention – National
emissions
BAU
Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA)
Mt CO2-eq
Mt CO2-eq
%
%
ENERGY
Improved efficiency in industry
Efficient commercial building and public
buildings
Sustainable housing development
Lower CO2 electricity supply
TRANSPORT AND LIQUID FUELS
Sustainable transport development
Advanced transport options
Liquid fuel supply options
NON-ENERGY EMISSIONS
Reducing industrial process emissions
Waste minimisation
Improved agriculture
Emission reductions in LULUCF
Totals
2020
482
2025
563
134
169
145
170
761
902
2020
124
61
5
2025
205
83
7
2020
16.29%
8.02%
0.66%
2025
22.73%
9.20%
0.78%
2020
47.33%
23.28%
1.91%
2025
53.95%
21.84%
1.84%
8
50
11
104
1.05%
6.57%
1.22%
11.53%
3.05%
19.08%
2.89%
27.37%
67
5
5
57
71
28
11
14
18
262
105
10
10
85
70
29
11
11
19
380
8.80%
0.66%
0.66%
7.49%
9.33%
3.68%
1.45%
1.84%
2.37%
34.43%
11.64%
1.11%
1.11%
9.42%
7.76%
3.22%
1.22%
1.22%
2.11%
42.13%
25.57%
1.91%
1.91%
21.76%
27.10%
10.69%
4.20%
5.34%
6.87%
100.00%
27.63%
2.63%
2.63%
22.37%
18.42%
7.63%
2.89%
2.89%
5.00%
100.00%
Figure 7: Unpacking the Copenhagen mitigation undertakings - Deviation below Business-as-Usual (BAU)
from contributions by various nationally appropriate mitigation actions
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