Download 2. Scope of a possible GMES Climate Change Contribution

Towards a possible GMES Contribution for Climate Change –
EEA information needs for environmental assessments as a
basis for European policy making
Draft, 2 June 2009
Content
Summary and recommendations ................................................................................................ 3
1. Introduction and background ................................................................................................. 7
1.1 GMES – Status ...................................................................................................................... 7
1.2 Document background .......................................................................................................... 8
1.2.1 Expert meeting on reanalysis ......................................................................................... 8
1.2.2 JRC meeting on space-based climate change observations ........................................... 9
1.2.3 EEA meeting on global environmental observation, monitoring and forecasting ......... 9
1.2.4 Scope of this document ................................................................................................ 10
2. Scope of a possible GMES Climate Change Contribution................................................... 11
3. Key EU environmental policy processes ............................................................................. 13
3.1 Climate change mitigation and co-benefits for air quality .................................................. 13
3.2 Climate change adaptation .................................................................................................. 14
3.3 Freshwater ........................................................................................................................... 18
3.3.1 EU Policies and Directives ........................................................................................... 18
3.3.2 EU Water accounts ....................................................................................................... 20
3.4 Marine/coasts ...................................................................................................................... 21
3.5 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, forestry .............................................................. 22
3.5.1 Land use and soil .......................................................................................................... 22
3.5.2 Biodiversity (terrestrial ecosystems) ............................................................................ 24
3.5.3 Agriculture ................................................................................................................... 25
3.5.4 Forestry......................................................................................................................... 26
3.6 Health .................................................................................................................................. 28
4. Key climate change information needs ................................................................................ 30
4.1 Global .................................................................................................................................. 30
4.2 European mitigation ............................................................................................................ 31
4.3 European adaptation ............................................................................................................ 32
4.4 Atmosphere and climate ...................................................................................................... 32
4.5 Cryosphere .......................................................................................................................... 33
4.6 Freshwater ........................................................................................................................... 34
4.6.1 Water quality and quantity ........................................................................................... 34
4.6.2 Water accounts ............................................................................................................. 40
4.7 Marine biodiversity and ecosystems ................................................................................... 41
4.8 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture ............................................................................. 44
4.8.1 Soil ............................................................................................................................... 44
4.8.2 Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity ....................................................................... 45
4.8.3 Agriculture and forestry ............................................................................................... 45
4.8.4 Human health ............................................................................................................... 46
4.9 Projections ........................................................................................................................... 47
5. Current GMES services and gaps......................................................................................... 48
5.1 Land ..................................................................................................................................... 48
5.2 Marine ................................................................................................................................. 49
5.3 Atmosphere ......................................................................................................................... 50
5.4 Emergency ........................................................................................................................... 51
5.5 GMES in-situ coordination ................................................................................................. 52
6. Summary of main data needs and gaps ................................................................................ 53
7. Conclusions and recommendations ...................................................................................... 56
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Summary and recommendations
Introduction
This paper provides an introduction to the scope of a possible GMES climate change contribution
from an EEA perspective; an overview of the main relevant policy environmental processes that
need climate change information; the key information needs for assessments needed to underpin
these environmental policy processes (with a focus on climate change impact, vulnerability and
adaptation assessments needs); a short summary of the current GMES services and possible gaps
and finally a summary of main data needs and gaps from an environmental perspective.
Key EU environmental policies
International negotiations are under way to conclude a global agreement at the UN climate
change conference in Copenhagen (December 2009) for the period after 2012. The EU's
objective is to ensure that the global average temperature does not increase more than 2°C above
pre-industrial levels. To avoid this, global emissions of greenhouse gases must peak before 2020
and then decrease by at least 50% by 2050. In December 2008 the EU reached an agreement on a
climate change and energy package with targets for 2020 for greenhouse gas emissions,
renewable energy and energy efficiency. However, further knowledge from research will be
helpful, in particular on long term low greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation and low
emission scenarios. Such knowledge could e.g. assist in better defining long term climate targets
and cost-effective global and European pathways to avoid dangerous global climate change. In
addition enhanced knowledge on co-benefits of climate change policies on improvement of air
quality can help in further developing air quality policies (such as the EU national emission
ceiling directive).
Some of the information needs related to climate change mitigation (e.g. regarding emission
reductions from land use change and forestry) are already provided through existing GMES
services. To what extent these existing or future GMES services can further support climate
change mitigation has not been assessed in this paper. The paper focuses primarily on
information needs in the area of climate change adaptation that could be covered by a GMES
climate change contribution.
The Commission published a White Paper on Adaptation in April 2009. The White Paper sets out
a framework to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. It notes that the
knowledge base should be improved and better access to existing information should be
provided. An effective way to improve knowledge management would be to establish a Clearing
House Mechanism on climate change impact, vulnerability and best practices on adaptation. The
White paper mentions also that further work is necessary on methods, models, data sets and
prediction tools, which assist in understanding and forecasting climate impact, in identifying
vulnerabilities and in developing appropriate adaptation measures. The Clearing House
Mechanism would include results from such further work and also information provided by
GMES.
Regarding water, the Water Framework Directive establishes a legal framework to protect and
restore clean water across Europe by 2015 and to ensure the long-term sustainable use of water.
The River Basin Management Plans due in 2009 will take into account the impacts of climate
change and the next plans due in 2015 should be fully climate-proofed. In addition, climate
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change must also be properly integrated in the implementation of the Floods Directive. For water
scarcity, the Commission will assess the need to further regulate the standards of water using
equipment and water performance in agriculture, households and buildings. When reviewing in
2012 the implementation of the Water Framework Directive and the Water Scarcity and
Droughts strategy, options for boosting the water storage capacity of ecosystems to increase
drought resilience and reduce flood risks should be evaluated.
Regarding habitats, the impact of climate change must also be factored into the management of
Natura 2000 to ensure the diversity of and connectivity between natural areas and to allow for
species migration and survival when climate conditions change. In future it may be necessary to
consider establishing a permeable landscape in order to enhance the interconnectivity of natural
areas.
Climate change must also be properly integrated in the implementation of the Marine Strategy
Framework Directive which requires the achievement of good environmental status of the EU's
marine waters by 2020. Full implementation of this Directive will help increase resilience in the
marine environment and facilitate adaptation efforts. The Integrated Maritime Policy will provide
a comprehensive framework to integrate adaptation efforts coherently into sectoral and specific
policies and measures. Efforts must be stepped up to ensure that the provisions in the Integrated
Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Recommendation are fully respected and strengthened. The
follow-up to the Roadmap for Maritime Spatial Planning will incorporate adaptation to climate
change in maritime and coastal management.
Furthermore climate data are also needed for environmental accounting system (System of
Environmental-Economic Accounting, SEEA), in particular water accounting.
Information needs for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments
The paper shows the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and exchange and reducing
uncertainties in projections, to improve climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
assessments. Especially in the key environmental areas of freshwater, marine and terrestrial
biodiversity/ecosystems and land use/soil, there is a need for long-term data series (e.g. decades)
to allow for trend analysis and extreme value analysis as well as a need for a higher spatial
resolution.
Past to present
The key information needs for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments
are requirements for appropriate:
 geographical coverage (the impacts of climate change transcend the boundaries of individual
countries, thus there is a need for alternative analysis units such as catchments, sea basins,
bio-geographic regions),
 record length (allowing for the detection of significant trends/changes in the environment)
 consistency,
o in time (homogeneity considerations, to allow for comparability of information)
o in space (e.g. in the analysis across national boundaries to allow for pan-European
comparability of assessments)
o between variables/indicators (also for non-physical and non-chemical variables such
as socio-economic variables)
 spatio-temporal resolution, (e.g. regional reanalysis)
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
quality (fit-for-purpose)
Projections
To improve the development of adaptation strategies, high-resolution, tailor-made climate
change scenarios at the regional or even local levels are needed, and at the appropriate scale.
Thus the above requirements on the past to present state of the climate system will in principle
also apply to forward-looking studies. However, there will be limitations on some of the aspects,
due to limitations in both global and downscaled regional climate change models. There are
various causes of uncertainties including incomplete understanding of the physical, chemical and
biological processes; different global/regional climate models; insufficient length of time series
to validate these models and possibly most importantly the uncertainty in future emissions from
human activities. It would be useful if European climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment
projects would adopt the same contrasting set of global climate scenarios, such as those used by
IPCC, and make use of the same or similar regional climate projections. Furthermore
improvement of climate models is needed, e.g. through producing ensembles of climate
simulations and thus present probabilities of future climate. It will be extremely important
however, to avoid downscaling to a level which has no statistical or analytical credibility as this
is likely to encourage users to believe that exact solutions exist for particular locations and so not
put in place a precautionary or flexible approach to adaptation. There will be a need both for
explorative research for the very long term (centuries) and for analysis of climate-change impacts
in the medium term (decades) for which better adaptation actions urgently need to be developed.
Because of the uncertainties in existing climate change scenarios (which should be presented
transparently), it will be important to encourage a greater understanding of the risks amongst
those stakeholders who will have to make decisions. A better appreciation of the changes to
existing legislation, assessment, asset management and design criteria will also need to be put in
place which could then be further improved as more detailed scenarios become available.
Current GMES services
GMES is already contributing relevant climate change related data and information in several of
the existing services (Services ‘Marine’, ‘Atmosphere’, ‘Land’, and ‘Emergency Response’).
Considerable progress within GCOS, supported by GMES, is reported on monitoring of Essential
Climate Variables (ECVs) from the field of atmosphere and to a minor extent from the ocean
(e.g., vertical profiles for greenhouse gases; ozone and aerosols, integrated analyses of CO2 and
CH4 observations; satellite based atmospheric composition measurements; sustained sea-ice
observations from space; establishment of frameworks for internationally-coordinated ocean
observations in the Arctic). On the terrestrial side, progress supported by GMES is low (e.g.
regular fine-resolution global land cover maps), and no significant GMES commitment is made
for many of the other GCOS actions (overarching and cross-cutting actions; atmospheric domain
actions; oceanic domain actions; terrestrial domain actions).
The needs mentioned above for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments
go beyond what the operational initial GMES services can deliver at the current stage. This is
also due to the cross-cutting nature of climate change and its range of impacts on ecosystem,
human health, property and infrastructure.
At present, the GMES services focus to a large extent on nowcasting and near real time and short
term (days) forecasting products and data. Remote sensing and in-situ observational systems
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have different strengths and weaknesses. Regarding past trends of the climate, there is a need to
ensure a better exploitation of the diverse sources of information, combining and integrating
them in a consistent way through blending techniques such as reanalysis. The concept of
reanalysis and downscaling provides promising techniques to meet the demands. This will need
the allocation of funding for the development of reanalysis capacity as well as a governing
framework for the maintenance and operation of the capacity. The existing GMES projects do
aim to include reanalysis activities in all three earth system component services (land, ocean,
atmosphere), but these reanalysis elements are generally constrained to short time periods which
limits their usefulness to detect significant changes/trends in the environment.
Summary of elements of a possible GMES climate change contribution
The information needs summarised above go beyond the existing GMES services. Thus
summarised a GMES climate change contribution should provide the following elements:
 Long time series of processed observations
 Consistent information, both across the variables within a specific earth system component
but also across the components taking into account interactions (in particular feedback)
mechanisms between different components of the climate system
 Use of appropriate geographical coverage, quality and granularity of information (in time and
space)
 Projections of climate change impacts relevant for ecosystem based climate change impact,
vulnerability and adaptation assessments
 Easily accessible products and services for the general public
 Expert interpretations and integrated assessments
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1. Introduction and background
1.1 GMES – Status
Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) aims – through joint use of spacebased and in-situ measurements – to offer operational services in various areas. It represents a
concerted effort to bring data and information providers together with users, so they can better
understand each other and make environmental and security-related information available to the
people who need it through enhanced or new services. GMES aims to support in particular
decision-making by both institutional and private actors. The following pre-operational services
were officially presented at the GMES Forum in Lille in September 2008:
 Marine Services
 Atmospheric Services
 Land Services
 Support to Emergencies and Humanitarian Aid
 Support to security -related activities
The progressive implementation of GMES from the concept to pre-operational and finally
operational services is made possible by the activities and investments of EU and ESA Member
States. These and other public and private contributions are jointly supported by the European
Commission (EC) and the European Space Agency (ESA).
In 2006, the Commission established the GMES Bureau1, with responsibility for creating an
implementation strategy for GMES, promoting GMES to stakeholders and the wider general
public and ensuring that data from in-situ observing systems, a critical dependency for
operational GMES services, are available to meet the requirements. In 2008, the Commission
mentioned2 that EEA is expected to play a role in in-situ data coordination under the SEIS
umbrella, while some coordination activities could be delegated to other existing relevant
coordination bodies3. EEA has submitted a proposal on coordination of in-situ data in response to
the FP7 Space Call SPA ENV INFR 2009, aiming to stimulate open access to all relevant in-situ
data for operational GMES service provision.
In the light of a changing global and European climate and its associated expected and already
experienced impacts, there is a need to further extend the portfolio of GMES services. GMES has
the ambitious objective to play a key role in fostering Earth observation activities as the main
contribution of the EU to GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of the Systems). Whilst the
existing core services addressing earth system components – namely land, ocean (“marine”) and
atmosphere – already provide valuable information and products containing many of the Global
Observing System (GCOS) Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), this contribution is still far from
Commission Decision creating a Bureau for GMES –
(http://www.gmes.info/library/files/1.%20GMES%20Reference%20Documents/GMES_Bureau_EN.pdf)
2
GMES 2008 Communication - We care for a safer planet - COM(2008) 748 final –
(http://www.gmes.info/library/files/1.%20GMES%20Reference%20Documents/COM-2008-0748.pdf)
3
For instance, EUMETNET (the European network of meteorological services) for meteorological insitu
observation systems and services; EUROGOOS (the European Association for the Global Ocean Observing
System); EUROGEOGRAPHICS (the European association of National Mapping and Cadastral Agencies) and
Eurogeosurveys (the European Association of Geological Surveys) for cartography, geology, mapping and reference
data; and EMODNET (the European Marine Observation and Data Network) for marine data or other bodies under
the umbrella of the EU Integrated Maritime Policy.
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complete. In addition, specific tailoring of information packages for monitoring of climate
change has still to be addressed in GMES. In particular, information about the physical state of
the Earth system and its components is needed to describe the current status of the Earth
environment from regional to global scale, and its evolution in the short to medium-term,
considering a wide range of space- and time-scales.
In its conclusions, the Competitiveness Council of 1-2 December 2008 highlighted in particular
“the intention of the Commission to propose an approach for the contribution of GMES to
climate change monitoring and other global change issues, and to continue the development of
security services, and considers that these issues should be clarified by end 2009”, inviting the
Commission to “foster the implementation of the GMES climate change monitoring and the
GMES security services to support the related European Union policies”4.
1.2 Document background
1.2.1 Expert meeting on reanalysis
EEA held an expert meeting (Copenhagen, 11-12 February 2009) on climate information services
based on atmospheric reanalyses and considering also the wider perspective of a GMES climate
service. The meeting was attended by the Commission (GMES Bureau, DG JRC, DG RTD),
EEA, ECMWF, EUMETNET, ESA, EUMETSAT, GEO, GCOS as well as representatives from
a number of countries, predominantly from meteorological services5.
The meeting provided a first discussion of requirements on climate monitoring information with
a particular focus on environmental assessments as a basis for policy making. Identifying and
mapping climate change impacts and vulnerabilities but also dealing with them by means of
adaptation requires the provision of data at appropriate geographical coverage, consistency,
record length, spatio-temporal resolution and quality. The concept of reanalyses and
downscaling6 provides a promising technique to meet these demands. This will though need the
allocation of funding for the development of reanalysis capacity (e.g. through FP7) as well as a
governing framework for the maintenance and operation of the capacity (e.g. GMES).
Regarding the wider perspective of a possible GMES climate service, the meeting provided a
starting point for further actions7. One action point was for EEA to provide a documentation of
needs on a possible climate service from the perspective of environmental assessments as a basis
for policy making. This action is in line with the Commission Communication on GMES8,
expressing the expectation on EEA to “to play an important role, in coordination with the
Commission, in relation to the supervision of some services and coordination with user
communities under the SEIS umbrella.” The latter is the background and mandate for the
Council Conclusions on Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES): “Towards a GMES
programme” (http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/08/st16/st16722.en08.pdf Last visited 23/04/2009)
5
http://eea.eionet.europa.eu/Public/irc/eionet-circle/gmes/library?l=/public/workshops/meeting_reanalysis/
6
Reanalysis is a blending technique which combines different observation streams (in-situ and remote sensing) and
a model built on physical laws. Downscaling is a technique to refine information through nested reanalysis and/or
statistical methods.
7
http://eea.eionet.europa.eu/Public/irc/eionetcircle/gmes/library?l=/public/workshops/meeting_reanalysis/reanalysis_finaldoc_1/_EN_1.0_&a=d
8
GMES 2008 Communication - We care for a safer planet - COM(2008) 748 final –
(http://www.gmes.info/library/files/1.%20GMES%20Reference%20Documents/COM-2008-0748.pdf)
4
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provision of the present document. This document is also intended to serve as an input to a
broader user consultation process for a possible GMES climate change contribution.
1.2.2 JRC meeting on space-based climate change observations
JRC organised an expert meeting (Ispra, 30-31 March 2009) on prospects on European capacity
for monitoring and assimilating space-based climate change observations in response to the
request from the 5th Space Council on Space and Climate Change 26 September 2008. The latter
work comprises a “study to assess the needs for full access to standardised data and for increased
computing power and the means to fulfil them taking into account existing capacities and
networking in Europe” together with the process of inventorying European contributions to
ensure the long-term provision of ECVs.
A meeting report was prepared by JRC with the following (draft) conclusions. Existing climate
capacities and networking in Europe provide a solid foundation, but computing power for this
distributed skills-base must increase, and the means to fulfil the needs cannot be realized with the
current dependence on research funding. Effective provisioning of data, including Essential
Climate Variables (ECVs), can be made by securing a stable financial platform which guarantees
sustained support for a) the space segment making measurements, b) for the processing, product
generation and their QA/QC and c) for reanalysis and assessment strategies to turn these data into
policy relevant information. Europe’s scientific community, in conjunction with the EC, ESA,
EUMETSAT/NET, ECMWF and Member States Institutions have the capability to deliver, but
don’t currently have the continuous means.
The EEA document, focusing more on the (policy) user needs, is meant to be complementary to
the JRC report.
1.2.3 EEA meeting on global environmental observation, monitoring and
forecasting
Furthermore EEA organised an international meeting on ‘Global environmental observation,
monitoring and forecasting’9 (Copenhagen, 13-15 May 2009). Participants included
representatives from GEO/GEOSS (secretariat), WMO, GCOS (secretariat), GLP, GBIF, GOOS,
LOICZ, GCP, UNEP, FAO, UNECE, ESA, European Commission (GMES Bureau, DG RTD,
DG ENV), EEA.
Participants focused on how existing and planned environmental information systems can best
serve the needs of society today and in the future. The main conclusion was that present efforts
and activities still fall short of the growing demand from scientists, citizens and policy-makers
for information to enable societies to respond and adapt to the challenges of global
environmental change.
Draft meeting statement:
 There is a clear need to intensify efforts to increase the sustainability, co-ordination, quality,
extent and operational capabilities of today’s global observing, monitoring and forecasting
systems and to demonstrate more effectively how these global systems are vital for the future
of society.
 Key actions
9
Link to insert (CIRCA)
9
1. Strengthening the links between the global observing, monitoring and forecasting
programmes and national and regional activities. Placing more attention on carbon
budgets, ocean acidification, monitoring of the cryosphere, biodiversity and
ecosystem services and the establishment of more reference sites for long term
monitoring.
2. Extensive mapping of the provision and gaps in common variables, delivery systems
and outputs from existing programmes against the range of needs of the different end
users in developed and developing countries.
3. Improving more broadly, systematic data collection and meta-data compilation, in
particular through stronger cross-environmental thematic linkages.
4. Intensifying R&D activities and the development of human potential in the fields of
environmental observing, monitoring and forecasting and establishing mechanisms
for the results to be more systematically integrated into operational services.
5. Improving data standards harmonisation and delivery systems through a direct
engagement with standard setting bodies and agreements.
6. Improving data discovery, availability, near real-time access and traceability
including data tagging for citation tracking.
7. Securing international agreement for free and open access to environmental data.
8. Linking global observing outputs to the identification and estimation of biodiversity
and ecosystem services.
9. Developing citizen observing activities using new sensors and reporting agreements
and technologies.
10. Developing and intensifying the use of a coherent set of advocacy materials tailored
to the needs of different communities, with the aim of supporting the continued
development of the global observing, monitoring and forecasting programmes.
Although these conclusions cover a broader area than climate change they are relevant for the
issue of climate change and a possible future GMES climate contribution.
1.2.4 Scope of this document
This document provides:
 A short introduction on the scope of a possible GMES climate change contribution from an
EEA perspective
 An overview of the main relevant policy environmental processes that need climate change
information
 Key information needs for assessments needed to underpin these environmental policy
processes (with a focus on climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments
needs)
 Current GMES services and possible gaps
 Summary of main data needs and gaps from an environmental perspective
 Conclusions and recommendations
As an important step in the process of consolidating the requirements, this document will be
subject to an EIONET consultation in order to incorporate the views of the EEA member and
cooperating countries.
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2. Scope of a possible GMES Climate Change Contribution
The climate system comprises the atmosphere and the subsystems, hydrosphere, cryosphere,
lithosphere and biosphere interacting and influencing atmospheric processes. These subsystems
are different but are all linked together forming a globally integrated climate system. The
integrated character is reflected well in the portfolio of the GCOS essential climate variables
(ECVs)10, which is an ambitious selection of most relevant physical and chemical components of
the climate system.
Table 1: List of Essential Climate Variables as given in the 2004 Implementation Plan for the
Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (IP-04)11.
Domain
Essential Climate Variables12
Surface:
Atmospheric
(over land, sea
and ice)
Oceanic
Terrestrial14
Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation
budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour.
Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air
temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and
direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties.
Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived
greenhouse gases13, Aerosol properties.
Surface:
Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea
state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity),
Carbon dioxide partial pressure.
Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers,
Phytoplankton.
River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers
and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover
(including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active
radiation (fAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance, Soil
moisture15.
10
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=essentialvariables and Draft Progress Report on the
Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC 2004-2008,
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf
11
GCOS (2004): Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC,
GCOS-92, October 2004, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos-92_GIP.pdf
12
Bold and italic can be monitored from space (italics indicate ECVs included in GCOS report 107, which were
different from those included in the original 2004 IP, see http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos107.pdf
13
Including nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).
14
Includes runoff (m3 s-1), ground water extraction rates (m3 yr-1) and location, snow cover extent (km2) and
duration, snow depth (cm), glacier/ice cap inventory and mass balance (kg m-2 yr-1), glacier length (m), ice sheet
mass balance (kg m-2 yr-1) and extent (km2), permafrost extent (km2), temperature profiles and active layer
thickness, above ground biomass (t/ha), burnt area (ha), date and location of active fire, burn efficiency (%vegetation
burned/unit area).
15
Recognized as an emerging Essential Climate Variable (not part of the 44).
11
However, the impacts of climate change are relevant for areas beyond the essential physical and
chemical characteristics. Climate affects environment and human well-being as for example
described in the GEOSS societal benefit areas, namely agriculture, biodiversity, disasters,
ecosystems, energy, health, water and weather. There is therefore an overall need to not only gain
a better understanding of the climate but also of its impacts, including ecosystem, human and
economic aspects. The existing GMES services each focus on a particular component of the
Earth system16. Taking into account the integrated nature of the climate system and the crosscutting aspects of climate impacts it becomes clear that a GMES Climate Service would need to
go beyond domain-specific divisions and to integrate many thematic domains at the same time.
Regarding user requirements on a possible GMES Climate Service, the cross-cutting nature of
climate change impacts implies that its user groups are likely to come from many different
backgrounds and sectors. Defining and finding the users and requirements for a GMES Climate
Service can thus be expected to be even more complicated than defining the user community and
requirements for a service that addresses a specific Earth system component or sector (such as
the current pre-operational services). In addition, many stakeholders will have multiple roles17.
Stakeholders include both providers and users, while users include e.g. decision makers, policy
makers, researchers and the general public. Many other users exist, and their needs will cover a
variety of aspects to consider within the user consultation process, e.g. the spatio-temporal
resolution and quality of data and services, spatial domains for ECVs and other variables (e.g.
socio-economic). Thus, a user consultation process for a GMES Contribution to Climate Change
will need to address the problem from many different angles.
It will be especially important to take into account that data and information need to have the
following characteristics:
 have sufficient geographical coverage;
 are sustainable, i.e. are based on widely accepted technologies, and have sufficient funding
streams;
 are analytically tractable, i.e. have sufficient sampling density and can be interpreted in terms
of policy needs;
 can be used to detect significant changes in key environmental variables, ecosystem goods
and services; and
 where relevant are forward-looking, i.e. can be used in forecasting and forward studies.
The present document aims to contribute to that process by elucidating requirements on a GMES
Contribution to Climate Change from one specific angle – the perspective of the EEA and its
member countries (EIONET18) with a particular focus on environmental assessments as a basis
for European environmental policy making and information to be delivered in the context of the
existing and upcoming reporting obligations. To better explain user needs from this perspective
the paper explains the state of play of key EU environmental policy processes and the policy
needs for climate change information are shortly outlined in the following chapter.
It has to be noted that the existing Earth system component-specific services need to and already do – to some
extent – take into account some interaction at the boundaries of their respective Earth system component of focus
(e.g. sink processes such as pollutant deposition from the atmosphere to the ground represent sources to the
land/ocean components).
17
As an example, the research community is in one context a provider of scientific knowledge/information and
education regarding climate but at the same time it will be a user that is expected to benefit significantly from a
GMES Climate Service.
18
http://www.eionet.europa.eu/
16
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3. Key EU environmental policy processes
3.1 Climate change mitigation and co-benefits for air quality
The present mitigation (greenhouse gas emission reduction) commitments under the Kyoto
Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (e.g. 8%
reduction of EU15 emissions by 2008-2012 from 1990 levels) are only the first step in addressing
the climate change threat. The ultimate goal of the UNFCCC is to stabilise the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that avoids dire consequences from human
interference with the climate system. The EU's objective is to ensure that the global average
temperature does not increase more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. To avoid this, global
emissions of greenhouse gases must peak before 2020 and then decrease by at least 50% by
2050.
The necessary cuts in global emissions can be achieved only if all countries contribute their share
according to their responsibility and capacity. And even if the temperature increase stays below
2°C there will still be a need for significant adaptation efforts by all countries (see below).
In December 2008 the European Parliament and Council reached an agreement on a climate
change and energy package that will help transform Europe into a low-carbon economy and
increase its energy security. The EU is committed to reducing its overall emissions to at least
20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and is ready to scale up this reduction to as much as 30% under
a new global climate change agreement when other developed countries make comparable
efforts. It has also set itself the target of increasing the share of renewables in energy use to 20%
by 2020.
International negotiations are under way to conclude a global agreement at the UN climate
change conference in Copenhagen (December 2009) for the period after 201219. The successful
conclusion of these negotiations is a key priority for the EU. There are a number of challenges to
address including:
 Targets by developed countries and appropriate actions by developing countries;
 The need to address the financing of actions by developing countries (both to mitigate
greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change);
 The need to build an effective global carbon market.
 The need to reform the Kyoto’s Clean Development Mechanism.
 Emissions from international aviation and shipping, which are not covered by the Kyoto
Protocol, should be included in the overall targets of the new agreement.
 Including action on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in the new
agreement.
Furthermore the EU policy on air quality aims to develop and implement appropriate instruments
to improve air quality by control of emissions from mobile sources, improving fuel quality and
promoting and integrating environmental protection requirements into the transport and energy
sector. A key element is the revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive
19
See e.g. DG ENV, http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm and UNFCC, http://unfccc.int/
13
2001/81/EC (NECD). This is still under preparation and should set emission ceilings to be
respected by 2020 for the four already regulated substances and for the primary emissions of
PM2.5 as well. The revision builds upon the work performed under the Clean Air for Europe
Programme, and new scientific and technical work. The revision takes into account the recently
agreed EU climate change and energy package, because there are substantial co-benefits and
reductions in costs of measures by doing so.
3.2 Climate change adaptation
Addressing climate change requires substantial reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions but
we must also take "adaptation" actions to deal with the unavoidable impacts. Even if an
ambitious post-2012 global climate change agreement is achieved by end of 2009 in Copenhagen
(COP15, UNFCCC), that would be in line with the EU targets, meaning a global greenhouse gas
emissions reduction by at least 50% to achieve a maximum global average temperature increase
of 2 C above pre-industrial levels, there will still be climate change impacts society will need to
adapt to.
Adaptation should thus be addressed in a planned way to ensure that timely and effective
measures are taken ensuring coherency across different sectors and levels of governance. The
Commission published a White Paper on Adaptation in April 200920. The White Paper sets out a
framework to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. It builds on the
consultation launched in 2007 by the Green Paper on Adapting to Climate Change in Europe21,
complementing actions by Member States, of which about 10 have already prepared their
national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing and proposing actions to enhance and
finance adaptation in developing countries since these elements are also essential within a post2012 climate agreement.
However this document focuses mainly on Europe and a summary of the key conclusions from
the White Paper are provided here.
Climate change will impact a number of sectors. In agriculture projected climatic changes will
affect crop yields, livestock management and the location of production. The increasing
likelihood and severity of extreme weather events will considerably increase the risk of crop
failure. Climate change will also affect soil by depleting organic matter – a major contributor to
soil fertility. The effects of climate change on forests are likely to include changes in forest
health and productivity and changes to the geographic range of certain tree species. Climate
change will be an added stress for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. Effects will also be
severe on coasts and marine ecosystems. Coastal erosion rates will increase and existing defences
may provide insufficient protection. In this context, islands and outermost regions deserve
special consideration.
In the energy sector, climate change will have a direct effect on both the supply and demand of
energy. The projected impact of climate change on precipitation and glacier melt indicate that
20
White Paper, Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action Brussels, 1.4.2009
COM(2009) 147 final http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/pdf/com_2009_147_en.pdf
21
Green Paper from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social
Committee and the Committee of the Regions - Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action
{SEC(2007) 849}
14
hydropower production could increase by 5% or more in northern Europe and decrease by 25%
or more in southern Europe. Decreased precipitation and heat waves are also expected to
influence negatively the cooling process of thermal power plants. On the demand side, increasing
summer peaks for cooling and impacts from extreme weather events will affect in particular
electricity distribution.
Extreme climate events cause huge economic and social impacts. Infrastructure (buildings,
transport, energy and water supply) is affected, posing a specific threat to densely populated
areas. The situation could be exacerbated by the rise in sea level. A more strategic and long-term
approach to spatial planning will be necessary, both on land and on marine areas, including in
transport, regional development, industry, tourism and energy policies.
Tourism is likely to suffer from decreasing snow cover in Alpine areas and from increasing
temperatures in Mediterranean regions. Unsustainable forms of tourism can exacerbate the
negative effects of climate change.
Changing weather conditions will also have profound effects on human health. As extreme
events become more frequent, weather-related deaths and diseases could rise.
Climate change will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources,
affecting many sectors including food production, where water plays a crucial role. More than
80% of agricultural land is rain-fed. Food production also depends on available water resources
for irrigation. Limited water availability already poses a problem in many parts of Europe and the
situation is likely to deteriorate further due to climate change, with Europe’s high water stress
areas expected to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070s. This could also increase
migration pressures.
Climate change will increasingly drive ecosystem including marine ecosystems and biodiversity
loss, affecting individual species and significantly impacting ecosystems and their related
services, on which society depends. Ecosystems play a direct role in climate regulation with peat
lands, wetlands and the deep sea providing significant storage for carbon.
In addition, salt marsh ecosystems and dunes provide protection against storms. Other ecosystem
services will also be affected such as the provision of drinking water, food production and
building materials and oceans can deteriorate through acidification. Some land use practices and
planning decisions (e.g. construction on flood plains), as well as unsustainable use of the sea (e.g.
overfishing) have rendered ecosystems and socioeconomic systems more vulnerable to climate
change and thus less capable of adapting.
It will be important to improve the knowledge base the coming years and provide better access to
existing information. A considerable amount of information and research already exists, but is
not shared across Member States. An effective way to improve knowledge management would
be to establish a Clearing House Mechanism as an IT tool and database on climate change
impact, vulnerability and best practices on adaptation. The Clearing House Mechanism would
contribute to the Shared Environmental Information System22, the collaborative initiative by the
European Commission and the European Environment Agency (EEA) to establish with the
Member States an integrated and shared EU-wide environmental information system. The
Clearing House Mechanism would also rely on geographical information provided by the Global
Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES).
22
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/seis/
15
Methods, models, data sets and prediction tools, which can be enabled by information and
communication technologies, assist in understanding and forecasting climate impact, in
identifying vulnerabilities and in developing appropriate adaptation measures. Further work is
necessary to develop these tools. In cooperation with the Member States, vulnerability must be
assessed against a wide range of climate scenarios and on different geographical scales so that
adaptation measures can be defined as precisely as possible. The Commission is currently
examining ways to improve the monitoring of impacts and adaptation measures in order to
develop vulnerability indicators. More quantified information on the costs and benefits of
adaptation is also urgently needed.
Support for adaptation should be enhanced under the current 7th Framework Programme and
future programmes. In addition, coordination should be enhanced where Member States are
spearheading important adaptation research.
Proposed Actions (EU and Member States) on developing the knowledge base
(Commission, White Paper, April 2009)
 Take the necessary steps to establish by 2011 a Clearing House Mechanism
 Develop methods, models, data sets and prediction tools by 2011
 Develop indicators to better monitor the impact of climate change, including vulnerability
impacts, and progress on adaptation by 2011
 Assess the cost and benefit of adaptation options by 2011
Regarding water, a number of existing EU policies are contributing to adaptation efforts. In
particular, the Water Framework Directive (see also chapter 2.2.1) establishes a legal framework
to protect and restore clean water across Europe by 2015 and to ensure the long-term sustainable
use of water. The River Basin Management Plans due in 2009 under the Directive will take into
account the impacts of climate change and the next generation of plans due in 2015 should be
fully climate-proofed. In addition, climate change must also be properly integrated in the
implementation of the Floods Directive. Full implementation of this Directive by the EU
Member States will help increase resilience and facilitate adaptation efforts.
For water scarcity, the Commission will assess the need to further regulate the standards of water
using equipment and water performance in agriculture, households and buildings. When
reviewing in 2012 the implementation of the Water Framework Directive and the Water Scarcity
and Droughts strategy, options for boosting the water storage capacity of ecosystems to increase
drought resilience and reduce flood risks should be evaluated.
Regarding habitats, the impact of climate change must also be factored into the management of
Natura 2000 to ensure the diversity of and connectivity between natural areas and to allow for
species migration and survival when climate conditions change. In future it may be necessary to
consider establishing a permeable landscape in order to enhance the interconnectivity of natural
areas.
Furthermore a discussion has started on future biodiversity policies and targets, also addressing
climate change, and a meeting was held on this topic in Athens (27-28 April 2009), organised by
the European Commission23. On climate change the meeting concluded the following. We cannot
BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION - BEYOND 2010 “Priorities and options for future EU Policy",
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/biodiversity/conference/index_en.htm
23
16
halt biodiversity loss without addressing climate change, but it is equally impossible to tackle
climate change without addressing biodiversity loss. It is therefore essential that climate change
policy is fully complementary with biodiversity policy. The EU institutions and the Member
States should:
 Ensure that climate mitigation and adaptation measures are fully compatible with policies for
the conservation of biodiversity.
 Promote the implementation of “triple win” of measures that conserve biodiversity while
actively contributing to climate mitigation and adaptation.
 Ensure that international climate negotiations respect the above principles.
Proposed Action (EU and Member States) on increasing the resilience of biodiversity,
ecosystems and water (Commission, White Paper, April 2009)
 Explore the possibilities to improve policies and develop measures which address
biodiversity loss and climate change in an integrated manner to fully exploit co-benefits
and avoid ecosystem feedbacks that accelerate global warming
 Develop guidelines and a set of tools (guidance and exchange of best practices) by the end
of 2009 to ensure that the River Basin Management Plans (RBMP) are climate-proofed
 Ensure that climate change is taken into account in the implementation of the Floods
Directive
 Assess the need for further measures to enhance water efficiency in agriculture,
households and buildings
 Explore the potential for policies and measures to boost ecosystem storage capacity for
water in Europe
 Draft guidelines by 2010 on dealing with the impact of climate change on the management
of Natura 2000 sites
Climate change must also be properly integrated in the implementation of the Marine Strategy
Framework Directive which requires the achievement of good environmental status of the EU's
marine waters by 2020. Full implementation of this Directive will help increase resilience in the
marine environment and facilitate adaptation efforts.
A more coherent and integrated approach to maritime and coastal planning and management is
also necessary. The Integrated Maritime Policy will provide a comprehensive framework to
integrate adaptation efforts coherently into sectoral and specific policies and measures. Efforts
must be stepped up to ensure that the provisions in the Integrated Coastal Zone Management
(ICZM) Recommendation are fully respected and strengthened. The follow-up to the Roadmap
for Maritime Spatial Planning will incorporate adaptation to climate change in maritime and
coastal management.
Proposed Action (EU and Member States) (Commission, White Paper, April 2009)
 Ensure that adaptation in coastal and marine areas is taken into account in the framework
of the Integrated Maritime Policy, in the implementation of the Marine Strategy
Framework Directive and in the reform of the Common Fisheries Policy.
 Develop European guidelines on adaptation in coastal and marine areas
17
3.3 Freshwater
3.3.1 EU Policies and Directives
The Water Framework Directive (WFD) came into force in December 2000 and establishes a
new legal framework for the protection, improvement and sustainable use of all water in Europe.
It applies to rivers, canals, lakes, lochs, groundwater, wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters and
requires governments to take a holistic approach to their management.
The WFD has the following key aims:
 to expand the scope of water protection to all waters, surface waters and groundwater and
providing an overall framework for water management;
 to achieve "good status" for all waters by 2015;
 to provide for an integrated approach to water management based on river basins and
combining emission limit values and quality standards;
 to promote sustainable water use based on a long-term protection of available water
resources; and
 to provide for greater public involvement in key decisions on water management.
The best model for a single system of water management is management by river basin - the
natural geographical and hydrological unit - instead of according to administrative or political
boundaries. The Water Framework Directive requires a river basin management plan to be
established for each river basin district (including those with cross national frontiers). The first
river basin management plans are required by 22 December 2009 and must be updated every six
years.
The Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine issues published together with the
White Paper on adaptation (April 200924) mentions the following.
This flexible management framework is well-suited to managing adaptation to the impacts of
climate change as it will enable new information on the impacts of climate change and the
measures necessary to adjust to be incorporated into the revised river basin management plans.
The requirement under the Water Framework Directive for Member States to take a crosssectoral approach to water management will also facilitate the necessary cross-sectoral action on
adaptation and provide a framework for consideration of the relationship between the use and
management of the natural environment (e.g. land) and the quality and availability of water
resources. Further, the achievement of "good ecological status" for all waters as provided in the
Water Framework Directive will contribute strongly to improving and maintaining biodiversity
in the aquatic environment, as well as those ecosystems which rely on the aquatic environment.
Work is on-going at a European level to develop by the end 2009 comprehensive guidelines and
a set of tools for incorporating climate change into future river basin management plans.
The Water Framework Directive is complemented by the Floods Directive and the policy on
water scarcity and droughts. These provide a more specific framework for adapting to the key
water-related impacts of climate change.
24
Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine, http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:SEC_2009_0386:EN:NOT
18
The Floods Directive establishes a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks
aimed at reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage
and economic activity associated with floods in Europe. The Directive requires Member States to
assess if all water courses and coast lines are at risk from flooding, to map the flood hazards and
identify assets and humans at risk in these areas and to take adequate and coordinated measures
to reduce the flood risk. In line with the integrated river basin approach taken under the Water
Framework Directive, the Directive also requires Member States to coordinate their flood risk
management practices in shared river basins, including with third counties, and to avoid taking
measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries. Co-ordination with the
implementation of the WFD is required under Article 9 of the Floods Directive from the second
River Basin Management Plan. The Floods Directive therefore provides a comprehensive
mechanism for assessing and monitoring increased risks of flooding due to climate change and
for developing appropriate adaptation approaches. The coordinated approach with the river basin
management plans will ensure an overall effective approach and help avoid maladaptation
measures.
Alongside an increased risk of flooding, climate change will make water scarcity and droughts an
increasingly frequent phenomenon. In July 2007 the Commission adopted a Communication on
addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union setting out a
number of policy options for addressing the challenge of water scarcity. The measures identified
in the Communication represent an important tool box for responding to the increased likelihood
of such events due to climate change. In particular, the Communication identified the importance
of moving towards a water-efficient and water-saving economy and the important roles played by
water pricing and land-use planning in incentivising efficient water use. The Commission
reviewed progress towards addressing water scarcity and droughts in December 2008 and will
conduct an annual European assessment of water scarcity and droughts making it possible to
monitor changes across Europe and to identify where further action is needed in response to
climate change. In addition, a review of the strategy for water scarcity and droughts is planned
for 2012.
Table 2 - Potential planned adaptation options for Water25
Type of action
Description
Mitigate the threat
Water supply measures (desalinisation)
Certain land use practices that enhance flood risks should be addressed, for example by an
obligatory climate change related long term assessment of the risks related to certain land uses in a
river basin and coastal area to floods, both to reduce the potential damage of assets at risk as well as
to ensure better use of land for reduction of the flood hazards
Prevent effects
Water demand management. As a first step, improved incorporation of current climate variability
into water-related management would make adaptation to future climate change easier.
Water management should turn from focusing on meeting the increasing demand and protecting
people from extremes of floods and drought, to protection of water resources in an integrated
manner
25
Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT
19
Change land use.
Land management and land planning need to adapt in order to progress towards optimally water
saturated land. A stable water cycle is required. Basic ecological functions like the return of water
and vegetation to land need to be reintroduced. The ability of land to retain water needs to be
improved. This can be achieved by the restoration of wetlands. The priority should be to keep
rainwater in places where it falls, particularly in areas with significant impacts due to human
activities. An improved infiltration of water into the soil and progress towards soil saturation will
help the restoration of groundwater and surface water resources and therefore the development of
permanent vegetation accompanied by cooler temperatures. Efforts need to take place everywhere
but more particularly in hot spots like highly cultivated areas and highly populated areas. Action
includes technological measures like improvement of surfaces to help soil infiltration, anti-erosion
measures, use of vegetation borders, grassy lands, limiting of non-vegetation hard surfaces in builtup areas, replacing impermeable areas with permeable ones, avoiding clear-cutting of forests,
ensuring the quality and structure of forests, etc. Zoning and land planning need to evolve in order to
make the development of such measures possible and effective. Many actors have responsibility in
this respect: public authorities in charge of overall land planning, developers of building areas,
construction companies, banks and insurance companies.
3.3.2 EU Water accounts
The UN Statistics Division (UNSD) has set up an environmental accounting system (System of
Environmental-Economic Accounting, SEEA)26, in collaboration mainly with national statistical
institutes but also increasingly with involvement of (national) environmental agencies. EEA is
involved in particular with preparing environmental accounts for Europe for ecosystems and
water. The basic calculations for water resource management and scarcity assessments are
standardized via the SEEA Water 200327. EU-Member States will report on water accounts based
on the SEEA approach.
Figure 1 – Overview of system of water accounts
26
27
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/seeaw.asp
20
3.4 Marine/coasts
The Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine issues published together with the
White Paper on adaptation (April 2009)28 mentions the following.
Climate change will have a particular impact on the marine environment and coastal zones with
consequent impacts on maritime activities. The EU Integrated Maritime Policy provides a
comprehensive framework for addressing maritime activities from a cross-sectoral perspective.
This facilitates the integration of adaptation efforts for coastal and marine areas into specific
policies. In this context, the Commission acknowledged in its Blue Paper29 that risk management
may impact heavily on the budget and economy of coastal zones in the future and indicated
support for adaptation related to maritime activities, the marine environment, coastal zones and
islands.
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the environmental pillar of the Integrated Maritime
Policy aims at protecting more effectively the marine environment across Europe. It requires the
EU's marine waters to achieve good environmental status by 2020. This will protect the resource
base upon which marine-related economic and social activities depend.
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive establishes European Marine Regions on the basis of
geographical and environmental criteria. Member States (in cooperation with other Member
States and non-EU countries within a marine region) are required to develop strategies for their
marine waters containing a detailed assessment of the state of the environment, a definition of
"good environmental status" at regional level (wherever possible) and the establishment of clear
environmental targets and monitoring programmes. The first elements of marine strategies are
due by 2012 and are required to be updated every 6 years.
As with the Water Framework Directive, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive can facilitate
adaptation by ensuring that climate change considerations are incorporated into marine strategies
and by providing a mechanism for regular updating to take account of new information. The
flexible and adaptive approach of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive as well as the
reliance on Marine Regions and Sub-Regions as management units should allow for a flexible
adaptation to the specific impacts of Climate Change at regional level. The achievement of ‘good
environmental status’ of Europe's marine environment under the Marine Strategy will, as in the
case of 'good ecological status' for the Water Framework Directive, prevent a deterioration in the
quality of the marine environment as a result of climate change.
Europe's coastal zones are of strategic importance to the European Union. They are home to a
considerable percentage of European citizens, a major source of food and raw materials, a vital
link for transport and trade, the location of some of our most valuable habitats, and the favoured
destination for leisure time. However, due to climate impacts, these zones are facing increasing
environmental, economic and social problems. The inter-connection between land and sea makes
effective and integrated coastal and maritime management essential. The Commission has
highlighted the need for better integrated coastal zone management. In this context, there is a
28
Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine, http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0386:EN:NOT
29
'An Integrated Maritime Policy for the European Union', COM(2007) 575 final.
21
need to follow up on the Roadmap on Maritime Spatial Planning. The Recommendation
concerning Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Europe provides for Member States to take a
strategic approach to the management of their coastal zones, based on, inter alia, recognition of
the threat to coastal zones posed by climate change and the dangers entailed by the rise in sea
level and the increasing frequency and violence of storms. The EU ICZM Recommendation lists
eight principles on which coastal zone management should be based. These include integration
across sectors and levels of governance, as well as a participatory and knowledge-based
approach. Given the cross-border nature of many coastal processes, coordination and cooperation
with neighbouring countries and in a regional sea context are also needed.
The Commission's communication of June 2007 evaluates the progress towards integrated coastal
zone management in Europe and identifies and promotes measures to remedy the deterioration
and to improve the overall situation in Europe's coastal zones. This identified adaptation to
climate change as a priority theme for further promotion of ICZM.
A more coherent and integrated approach to coastal planning and management via integrated
coastal zone management will assist adaptation efforts. The multi-disciplinary, interactive
approach which underpins ICZM provides the flexible and multi-sectoral basis needed for
developing effective adaptation measures. To support the implementation of ICZM, opportunities
are offered especially through the EU's Cohesion Policy, Fisheries Fund and as part of the EU's
Research Framework Programme.
In order to ensure a coordinated and integrated approach to adaptation in coastal and marine
areas, taking into account trans-boundary issues, the Commission will develop guidelines on
adaptation in coastal and marine areas.
3.5 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, forestry
3.5.1 Land use and soil
Concerning land the White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following30
Land use refers to the terrestrial natural and managed ecosystems systems and includes soil,
vegetation, other biota and the ecological and hydrological processes in this system. Territorial
and spatial dimensions are important. There are increasing pressures for land in Europe. Land is a
limited resource and is currently sought by urbanisation, agriculture, bio-energy production,
forestry, nature conservation, recreation and tourism, industry and infrastructure. Therefore, there
are competing demands for land, which in some places in Europe is becoming scarcer. Land-use
change is one of the relevant factors among the determinants of climate change and the
relationship between the two is interdependent as changes in land-use may impact the climate
whilst climatic change will also influence opportunities for future land-use.
Climate Change aggravates land scarcity (need for food and biofuel production, need for natural
areas, and water management, sea level rise, floods and land abandonment), and reduce choices
and opportunities. In Europe, most of the land is privately owned, therefore there are many
choices that are going to be made by the landowners as they realise the effects of climate change.
Additionally the local authorities and regional authorities in charge of spatial planning will also
30
Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT
22
carry out a planned adaptation when they perceive the effects of changing patterns in rain fall and
temperatures. One of the major roles of land use planning in the future will be to define best
practice models for land use according to the soil characteristics and derived soil functions. The
most obvious land use changes appear due to urbanization processes and the construction of
transport infrastructure. Through this process, soil conservation and runoff and erosion processes
may receive appropriate responses.
It should be noted that the Commission put forward a Soil Thematic Strategy (COM(2006) 231)
and a proposal for a Soil Framework Directive (COM(2006) 232)31 in 2006 with the objective to
protect soils across the EU. The Strategy and the proposal have not yet been adopted by the
Environment Council. Once adopted it could support the process of adaptation to climate change
in relation to soils and land use.
Table 3 - Potential planned adaptation options for Land use and Soil32
Type of action
Description
Share losses
Support the rural economies of desertification affected and threatened regions to limit/avoid land
abandonment by keeping agricultural production and soil management viable
Repay damage caused by flooding (directly or through insurance)
Mitigate the threat
Reduce/avoid the loss of soil organic matter by adapting existing cultivation practices (e.g.
ploughing in crop residues, using "green manuring") and supporting the use of soil improvers and
organic fertilisers.
Control erosion by choosing from a wide range of existing measures.
Control organic matter decline due to increased erosion of peat by raising the ground water table.
Control salinisation resulting from irrigation by optimizing irrigation techniques.
Mitigating salinisation by changing to more halophytic crops
Prevent effects
Reduce/avoid the loss of soil organic matter by adapting existing cultivation practices (e.g.
ploughing in
crop residues, using "green manuring") and supporting the use of soil improvers and organic
fertilisers.
Preventing erosion by choosing from a wide range of existing measures.
Preventing salinisation resulting from irrigation by optimizing irrigation techniques
Preventing organic matter decline by adding (external) organic matter.
Contribute to halting biodiversity loss by changing crops and by allowing species to move,
enhancing the connectivity between nature conservation sites such as Natura 2000
Preventing organic matter decline by converting cropland into permanent grassland or forest
Preventing organic matter decline due to increased erosion of peat by phasing out agricultural land
use/dehydration and convert into natural areas
Enhance connectivity at different scales allowing species to move and habitats to shift
Avoid or limit soil sealing to keep soil functions intact to the extent possible, notably the water
retention capacity
Given that land is a limited natural resource, becoming increasingly scarce given the demands that
are arising, the same principles which are applied to other scarce resources ought to be applied to
land use: more rational use of the land, the need to recycle the land, the need to act on the increasing
demand
Relocate human activities in areas with a high flood risk, by moving those to higher ground
Change land use.
Change location of economic
activities.
Capacity Building
Adapt to climate change by providing the population with information and education on changing
conditions.
31
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/soil/three_en.htm
Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT
32
23
3.5.2 Biodiversity (terrestrial ecosystems)
The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following33.
Ecosystems play a key role in regulating climate. Changes in ecosystem composition, and
especially in ecosystem structure, in many cases have important implications for the interactions
between the biosphere and the climate system, as well as for ecosystem services on which society
depends including the provision of fresh water, food and medicine.
Terrestrial and marine ecosystems currently absorb roughly half of the anthropogenic CO2
emissions. This is an important 'free' ecosystem service. However, growing evidence suggests
that the capacity of the Earth's carbon sinks is weakening due to the continuous degradation of
ecosystems. If the loss of biodiversity continues - or accelerates - the achievement of the climate
change goals could be compromised. Urgent action now to halt the further loss and degradation
of biodiversity will help to build resilience and maintain the provision of ecosystem services thus
providing future options for reducing the impact of climate change.
Ecosystem based adaptation is often the best and most cost-effective as it provides multiple
services and promotes synergies. Europe has built up a vast network of over 26,000 protected
areas covering all the Member States representing more than 20% of total EU territory. These
sites, known as the Natura 2000 network is the largest network of protected areas in the world
(set up under the EU nature directives including the Habitats Directive).
The ecological coherence of the Natura 2000 network, as well as habitat quality, is essential for
the long-term survival of many species and habitats. The impacts of climate change on
biodiversity and ecosystems present new challenges for nature conservation. Adaptation
measures to maintain diversity and increase connectivity will be necessary to ensure the
achievement of nature conservation objectives under changing climatic conditions. Coherence
and interconnectivity in Europe involves the application of biodiversity climate change
adaptation tools, such as flyways, buffer zones, corridors and stepping stones (connecting where
appropriate neighbouring and third countries). At the same time, nature conservation contributes
to increase resilience and maintain healthy ecosystems essential for any adaptation and
mitigation strategy.
Table 4 - Potential planned adaptation options for Biodiversity / Ecosystems34
Type of action
Description
Mitigate the threat
Preserving an abundance of organisms (plants, animals, micro-organisms) and multiple
groups performing similar functions is important for maintaining resilience. A diversified
portfolio of "insurance" species provides back-up if some species decline. Crucially higher
genetic and species diversity tends to make ecosystems more resistant and resilient to
disturbance. This is because species are likely to be present with characteristics that will
enable the ecosystem to adjust to change and to maintain the provision of critical services
such as water purification. Biodiversity provides flexibility and insurance and spreads risks
33
Questions and Answers on the White Paper on climate change adaptation,
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/09/145&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN
&guiLanguage=en
34
Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT
24
Prevent effects
Change land use.
Capacity building
across temporal and spatial scales. This is valid for both managed and unmanaged systems.
Integrated agricultural systems with a diversity of crops and surrounding ecological zones
can provide strong defences in the face of weather extremes, pest infestations and invasive
species.
Introduce a biodiversity/ecosystems compliance check in a reinforced spatial planning to
increase flexibility of managed and natural systems to accommodate and adapt to climate
change including by reducing other pressures on biodiversity/ecosystems arising from
habitat conversion, over- harvesting, pollution and invasive alien species and by developing
appropriate management and structure of the wider landscape and seascape.
Strengthen nature conservation measures to conserve biodiversity/ecosystems in the future.
Areas will have to be reserved for this purpose. Sufficiently large habitats must be provided
to protect domestic and endemic species. Newly arrived ‘non-native’ species can help to
maintain ecosystems, but they can also pose threats and need to be observed closely.
Habitat mosaics should be created in landscapes where land management practice has led to
the absence of sufficient suitable patches of unaltered or semi-natural habitat, thus ensuring
permeability of the landscape and the required network connectivity. Connectivity may be
achieved by establishing ecological linkages or by maintaining specific habitats to assist
movement of species through an inhospitable environment.
Maintain ecosystem function/services. For example, protecting upper-catchment forests and
restoring wetlands can reduce the risks from climate-related floods and droughts, thereby
protecting people's welfare and helping to minimise the loss of life, properties and other
assets. These investments are likely to be highly cost-effective relative to structural
alternatives such as dams and dykes.
Also, preserve and restore floodplains, including reversion of arable land to flood
meadows; promote climate-friendly agricultural use of peatlands and moorlands; and
improve microclimate in urban areas by maintaining and increasing green spaces and freshair corridors.
Investigate synergistic effects of climate change and other pressures on biodiversity and
ecosystems. Investigate biodiversity/ecosystems underlying climate regulation services, in
particular feedbacks that might work in our favour.
Build awareness of the links between biodiversity/ecosystems and climate, and emphasise
the large potential synergies when addressing biodiversity loss and climate change in an
integrated manner.
3.5.3 Agriculture
The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following35.
Climate change is one of the main drivers that shape European agriculture and rural areas. Even
if EU agriculture is technologically advanced, its capacity to produce food and to contribute to
providing ecosystem services is directly dependent on climatic conditions. Although forecasts of
climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and prices are uncertain, an increase in
extreme weather events is expected to trigger greater variability in agricultural production, food
prices and farm income.
The variability of crop yields has increased since the beginning of the century as a consequence
of extreme climatic events, such as the drought and summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought
of 2007. Europe's 2003 heat wave is estimated to have led to €10 billion in economic loses to
farming, livestock and forestry from the combined effects of drought heat stress and fire. It must
however be recognised that the ultimate impacts on farm income depend on many factors
including the global market and policy support.
Rural areas are exposed to a wide range of impacts from climatic variations, beyond those
directly affecting agriculture. Forest ecosystems and forestry are important in many rural areas.
35
Questions and Answers on the White Paper on climate change adaptation,
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/09/145&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN
&guiLanguage=en
25
Climatic changes will lead to increased risk of disturbances through storms, fire, and outbreaks
of pests and diseases with implications for forest growth and production. This will affect the
economic viability of forestry, mainly in southern areas, and the capacity of forests to provide
environmental services, including the carbon sink function.
The European Commission has adopted a policy paper on the challenge of climate change for
European agriculture and rural areas. The paper examines adaptation needs, and explores
possible orientations within the agricultural sector for future action. Enhancing the sustainable
use of natural resources such as water and soils, improving the adaptive capacity of farmers,
facilitating co-operation between Member States, and enhancing climate and agricultural
research are deemed as necessary early action. Its main purpose is to further involve Member
States and the farming community in the debate on how the farm sector can overcome the
challenges of climate change, and on how the Common Agricultural Policy can help.
Currently agriculture is beginning to adapt autonomously. Actions include use of various water
resources for areas that experience droughts or shortages (like water from tertiary treatment
facilities, or abstraction of ground water independently of planned water harvesting. Changes to
crops is also taking place by substituting mainly tree crops in the South EU or looking to more
heat resistant less water-demanding crops and/or varieties. Change in irrigation practices that
may lead to water conservation and avoidance of losses may also happen to the degree that the
needed investments will be subsidised. The degree of autonomous adaptation is expected to be
variable. A major driver will be the capacity building support for autonomous adaptation,
planning support by the authorities and financial resources, while Southern Europe is expected to
be engaged in much more serious adaptation efforts. Central European agriculture is expected to
adapt mid-term to risks related to flood prevention. Agricultural insurance may help to cover
extreme weather related risks, like fires, floods, droughts and storm/hale.
The strategy for climate change responses in agriculture needs to be consistent with safeguarding
food security, viability of rural areas and the provision of environmental services. The challenge
for agriculture over the coming years is the need to meet the demand from increasing number of
people – most of whom are in developing countries and will also suffer from worsened climatic
conditions – while at the same time, conserving the local and global environment in the face of
growing pressures associated with socio-economic development and climate change, that can
exacerbate the current limited soil and water resources.
3.5.4 Forestry
The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following36.
Climate change will bring many and complex effects for forests in different bio-climatic regions
of the EU. Possible future responses of forests to climate change include:
 Increased risk of biotic (pests and diseases) and abiotic (drought/storms/fires) disturbances to
forests health.
 Increased frequency of extreme weather events (storms, floods and droughts) leading to high
risk of fire erosion problems, and damages to stands.
36
Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT
26
The impacts of climate change are likely to vary greatly between regions. In the northwest of
Europe, where water supplies are, typically, non-limiting, growth rates are likely to be enhanced
by a combination of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, warmer winters and longer
growing seasons, and increased nutrient availability as a result of atmospheric deposition and
increased soil mineralisation. This contrasts with southern Europe and the Mediterranean region,
where more frequent and severe summer droughts are likely to lead to reduced productivity,
more extensive forest fires and, ultimately, to desertification in some areas. Species choice and
the biodiversity associated with forests will also be affected. A changing climate is also likely to
mean that the levels of damage caused by existing forest pathogens and pests changes, while new
pests and pathogens, whether introduced by mankind from other parts of the world or moving
through Europe as climate change progresses, have the capacity to cause serious damage to both
protection and production forests.
In southern Europe, the principal carbon stocks are in forest biomass, while in many boreal
forests, the soils contain significantly more carbon than tree biomass. In both cases, these carbon
stocks are vulnerable to the direct (and indirect) effects of climate change (lowering of water
table, retreat of permafrost and forest fires, desertification, respectively). Adaptation of
management practices should be considered to help protect these carbon stores, thus contributing
to climate change mitigation.
Forestry is a sector with long life-times: stands established now should be able to withstand the
next 50-100 years. Estimates from a JRC study forecast that according to a typical +4° scenario,
the ecological conditions where a given tree species now grows will shift somewhere between
500 and 1000 km north by 2100, though this does not mean that forests will be able to make
these shift.
For forestry, autonomous (or partially autonomous) actions have been identified. They focus on
forestry/environmental measures that will achieve social, economic and environmental outcomes.
Specific social and economic measures are not considered outside of those principles
incorporated within Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE) and
standards for sustainable forest management:
 Facilitate natural regeneration and forest growth in northern regions or high elevation areas
 Increase diversity in forest (at genetic, species, age, stand and landscape levels).
 Favour more resilient species.
 Enlarge woodlands and utilise topographical and edaphic heterogeneity in the landscape.
 Adapt management systems. Forest management has developed over time to accommodate
extreme climatic events including wildfires and storms.
 Landscape approach to adaptation. The ecosystem services provided by forests can contribute
to adaptation at the landscape level through the creation of habitat networks (aiding species
migration and adaptation of biodiversity), flood alleviation and large-scale erosion protection.
 Maintain and enhance forest monitoring.
27
3.6 Health
The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following37.
Climate change can have significant effects on the health of humans, animals and plants.
Increased temperatures and extreme heat can lead to a rise in mortality. In EU countries,
mortality is estimated to increase by 1-4% for each one-degree rise in temperature, meaning that
heat related mortality could rise by 30 000 deaths per year by the 2030s and 50 000 to 110 000
deaths per year by the 2080s (PESETA project).
In addition, temperature sensitive infectious diseases such as vector-borne (transmitted infections
by e.g. ticks or mosquitoes) diseases could increase. Changing frequency and intensity of
precipitation and temperature may result in outbreaks of water-related issues such as
contaminated drinking water or water used for recreation purposes. A warmer climate may also
have important effects on air quality in Europe, in terms of concentrations and dispersion of air
pollutants. Allergic disorders may be worsened by changed and prolonged pollen seasonality.
Climate change has also contributed to an increase in ozone concentration in central and southwestern Europe.
Animal health will also be affected. Vector transmitted diseases such as Bluetongue and West
Nile Fever are influenced by changes in climate. Wildlife is very susceptible to climatic and
environmental changes and plays an important role in animal disease transmission such as avian
influenza and rabies. Alterations in wildlife ecology may influence the occurrence of animal
diseases that are currently confined to specific territories or natural "niches". Some of these
diseases are subject to EU and international veterinary legislation and can endanger the country's
official animal health status. Changes to the animals' living conditions can also lead to nutritional
disorders, parasitic diseases, sun stroke and dehydration which affect animal health and well
being and thus the economic situation of farmers.
Climate change could affect cropping systems, plant breeding and natural vegetation such as
forests and woodland. It is also likely to affect both the incidence and severity of plant diseases.
The European Commission has adopted a policy paper on the impacts of climate change on
Human, Animal and Plant Health38. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
(ECDC) has recently launched, with the aid of external consultants, the E3 Network which will
help it to model and map the various types of risks of infectious diseases. ECDC also has several
other projects in the field of climate change and the spread of communicable diseases39.
Furthermore WHO is advocating for policy makers to protect people's health from the health
hazards associated with climate change. At global level, the World Health Assembly calls for
protecting health from climate change. At European level, a number of policy meetings held in
2007-2008 within the European Environment and Health process also recognized the need for
action in this field. European policy makers from the health and environment sector agreed to
37
Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT
38
Commission policy paper on the impacts of climate change on Human, Animal and Plant Health
http://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_threats/climate/climate_en.htm
39
http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/Health_topics/Climate_change/special_report/special_report.aspx
28
develop a Regional framework for action. This framework, which is being shaped in a series of
meetings, will inform the 2010 Fifth Ministerial Conference on environment and health, where
climate change will be one of the main topics on the agenda40.
Table 5 - Potential planned adaptation options for Health41
Type of action
Description
Mitigate the threat
Revised air and water quality controls e.g. tighter controls on emissions leading to ozone
formation. Increased frequency of microbiological testing of foods and other measures to
mitigate the risk of food poisoning. Development of heat health action plans (heat-wave
early warning and public health response), the strengthening of emergency medical
services, improvement of climate-sensitive disease surveillance, and actions to increase
accessibility to key determinants of health, such as clean water, energy and sanitation.
Much adaptation can be achieved in the context of pursuing wider development objectives
e.g. improved health and education services.
The maintaining/strengthening of public health infrastructure is often as the “most
important cost-effective and urgently needed” adaptation strategy. This includes the
reinforcement of public health policies that recognise climate risk, public health training,
more effective surveillance and emergency response systems, and sustainable prevention
and control programs. Education of public and health professionals.
As vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by other stresses, including lack of
preparedness or high burden of disease, it is important to include risks from climate into
public health policies, thus strengthening health services' preparedness and enhancing
international cooperation.
Prevent effects
Change land use.
Change location
activities
Capacity building
Greening urban areas, green roofs
of
economic
It is advisable for critical activities for public health (water treatment works; energy supply;
hospitals) to be based in locations at less risk from extreme weather events.
The main determinants of a community’s adaptive capacity are: economic wealth,
technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions, and equity. Adaptive
capacity is also a function of current population health status and pre-existing disease
burdens.
So far, little research has been conducted on estimating the cost of the current climate
sensitive disease burden, or of health-specific adaptation strategies.
Research and sharing and implementation of best practice in building design to minimise
excess temperatures within buildings.
Monitor changes in vector-borne disease distribution.
Research on physical and mental stressors in old age (links the aging population and
climate change).
40
http://www.euro.who.int/globalchange/country/20090112_2
Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT
41
29
4. Key climate change information needs
4.1 Global
The IPCC’s periodic assessments of the state of understanding of causes, impacts, vulnerabilities
and possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive
and widely-agreed surveys available on these subjects. In 2007 IPCC finalised its 4th Assessment
Report (AR4 - "Climate Change 2007"42). The EU helps driving forward the climate science
which forms the basis of IPCC reports, e.g. by the research activities funded under the various
research Framework Programmes. The EU is funding research on the scientific, technical and
socio-economic aspects of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation. Even though the main focus is on Europe, a considerable amount of
EC-funded research activities address key scientific questions in vulnerable ecosystems/regions
outside Europe.43
The main climate change research priorities and knowledge gaps have been assessed by the
European Commission44. A selection of relevant topics mentioned in the Commission’s analysis
follows:
 There is an increasing need for more accurate regional climate change information to
improve the analysis of impacts and contribute to adaptation policy needs. Consistency
between models in simulated regional temperature and precipitation needs to be improved.
High resolution global and regional models, seamless prediction to increase model reliability,
and probabilistic prediction based on large ensembles of simulations are necessary in order to
quantify uncertainties due to model differences and improve our understanding of climate
change variability and its impacts at regional level.
 Development of Earth System Models (ESMs) and increased understanding of coupled
system processes and associated feedbacks remain key challenges. Advancing our
understanding of coupled system processes and associated feedbacks, and inclusion of new
processes call for increases in spatial and temporal model resolution.
 There is a need to strengthen climate observations and maintain long term records in order to
be able to study and understand key processes and associated feedbacks and analyse extreme
events. Essential aspects include: maintenance and digitization of existing long term records,
better data recovery and homogeneity of records, better measurements of the slow
components of the climate system (oceans, land), better measurements of hydrological cycle
variables, integration of products in climate information services tailored to the users needs.
 There is a need for a dedicated computing infrastructure to meet current and emerging
research needs. Reliable global and regional climate change predictions cannot be achieved
without substantial increases in computing resources. These are needed so long-term
simulations can incorporate important climate features, bio-chemical and physical processes
and regional details and perform more extensive ensemble runs.
 Improve our understanding of the sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon and other
greenhouse gases (e.g. methane, nitrous oxide) through integrated, multiple-constraint
42
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm
http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.cfm?pg=climate
44
Integrated climate change research following the release of the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and most recent research developments, 18.12.2008, SEC(2008) 3104 final
http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/commission_working_doc.pdf
43
30




regional observations combined with satellite observations, in order to quantify responses in
terrestrial ecosystems including hot spot regions (e.g. Siberia, Congo basin, Amazon), and
achieve early detection of unforeseen events.
Sustain long-term observations of ocean carbon fluxes, starting from the North Atlantic
observing system which has been built-up. Determine how realistic model simulations are
and proceed with a systematic calibration of ocean carbon models and coupled Earth Systems
Models with respect to observations. Study new processes on ocean vulnerability such as
sub-sea permafrost melting in the Arctic, growing hypoxia in the oceans, ocean acidification,
ocean methane and nitrogen cycle, and look out for surprises in the system.
Understand better the links between the Arctic Ocean and the climate system through better
representation of ice dynamics, thermohaline circulation and sea ice. Future evolution of the
Greenland and also the Antarctic ice sheet mass needs to be better quantified as it influences
heavily (together with heat penetration into the oceans) sea level rise projections.
Furthermore the need was mentioned for more knowledge on climate change impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation in many areas and sectors. This includes: impacts on ecosystems,
agriculture and forestry in particular in mountain regions; impacts on human health; impacts
on hydrology; impacts on extreme events; impacts on the economy; impacts of climate
change in vulnerable world regions; impact and cost/benefit assessment for adaptation
responses; comprehensive analysis of presently developed/adopted adaptation strategies of
EU Member States; quantification of the relative costs of adaptation; urban adaptation; future
role of the financial flows in the insurance sector and weather related insurance schemes;
damage and repair costs of extreme weather events; coastal protection).
Regarding mitigation e.g. the development of low emission scenarios using both bottom-up
and top down approaches, which would able to attain the 2ºC objective set by the EU, was
mentioned.
The above shows that there is a high need for enhanced knowledge on many aspects of climate
change. Some of these topics are moving from a research area into a more operational area and
thus could be relevant for a possible future GMES climate contribution.
4.2 European mitigation
As mentioned in section 3.1 there are a number of EU policies in place to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by 2020 (EU climate change and energy package with targets for 2020). Furthermore
EU policy on air quality is in place and also being developed, in particular the revision of the
National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive.
For the further development of both climate change mitigation and air quality/air emission
reduction policies information on climate change is relevant. Climate change and conventional
air pollution are linked primarily because both result from burning fossil fuels. A changing
climate can have an influence on air pollution through changes in meteorological conditions and
can e.g. lead to an increase in ozone over the continents, hence working against air pollution
control policies. Furthermore air pollutant emissions can be reduced by increasing the share of
low carbon energy sources in both energy supply and demand. Thus integration of the two topics
can be useful in air quality and regional climate change modelling as well as in models assessing
costs of measures and benefits (e.g. reduced exposure of air pollution to humans and
ecosystems).
31
These topics are dealt with through various EU and national research programmes and some
might be relevant for a possible future GMES climate contribution.
Some of the information needs related to climate change mitigation (e.g. regarding emission
reductions from land use change and forestry) are already provided through existing GMES
services. To what extent these existing or future GMES services can further support climate
change mitigation has not been assessed in this paper.
This paper focuses primarily on information needs in the area of climate change adaptation that
could be covered by a GMES climate change contribution.
4.3 European adaptation
The report Impacts of Europe's changing climate - 2008 indicator-based assessment”45 presents
past and projected (impacts of) climate change regarding atmosphere and climate, cryosphere,
marine biodiversity and ecosystems, water quantity (including river floods and droughts),
freshwater quality and biodiversity, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, soil, agriculture and
forestry, human health. The report is a joined effort of the European Environment Agency
(EEA), the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC-IES) and the World Health
Organisation Europe (WHO). It includes data and indicators from the IPCC 4th assessment
report46 and many EU research projects47. As such it gives a comprehensive overview on data
requirements across the different environmental and human sectors and is therefore used to
describe these needs using the different story-lines of the report.
It should be noted that data and scientific knowledge on climate change and its impacts increase
rapidly, see e.g. the latest information presented at the International Scientific Congress on
climate change under the heading "Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions"
(10-12 March 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark).48
The report shows the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and exchange and reducing
uncertainties in projections, to improve climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
assessments. Especially in the key environmental areas of freshwater, marine and terrestrial
biodiversity/ecosystems and land use/soil, there is a need for long-term data series to allow for
trend analysis and extreme value analysis as well as a need for a higher spatial resolution.
Below a summary is provided on the main data issues for the various relevant Earth system
components (based on the abovementioned report and various other information sources).
4.4 Atmosphere and climate
Atmospheric routine measurements (e.g. temperature and precipitation) have taken place for
many decades. Data availability is in general therefore relatively good compared with other
indicators, although it also differs among the climate indicators and among regions. At the global
level, major gaps in coverage are identified mainly for Africa, the oceans and the polar regions.
45
EEA Report No 4/2008, http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4
http://www.ipcc.ch/
47
see European Commission DG RTD, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.cfm?pg=climate
48
http://climatecongress.ku.dk/
46
32
For Europe data is available through the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D49)
project, the UK Climatic Research Unit (CRU50), and the EU research project ENSEMBLES51.
However also for Europe there is still lack of data for regional and local assessments at the
appropriate spatial resolution and quality. The spatial resolution of the interpolated gridded data
at European or global level is often at about 1ºx1° resolution which is quite coarse compared to
the higher resolution needed at national and River Basin District (RBD) scale (ca 0,1° x 0,1° and
less). More detailed and quantitative, tailor-made information is especially needed for regional
climate impact assessments and the development of cost-effective adaptation strategies.
However, great care needs to be taken to avoid overextending the spatial and temporal resolution
of the information beyond statistical and analytical credibility as this will lead to a false sense of
reliability amongst users. Instead information from regional and sub-regional models should be
published with the uncertainties underlying them and the caveats for their use clearly embedded
with them.
Climate reanalysis at global and regional level is a tool to create data sets from land and oceans
(surface to the upper layers of atmosphere) for periods up to 50 years and can thus improve study
of climate and climate variability. The latest available European reanalysis data are part of the
Global Atmospheric Reanalysis ERA-40, carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)52. For adaptation particularly, information on extreme events is
most important, but changes in storms and storm surges in relation to climate change are still
uncertain since time-series of observed data are too short to understand the contributions of
natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. Sufficient data for better analysis of changes in the
frequency and intensity of other extreme events like heat waves and heavy rain falls are still
lacking, in parts of Europe and in terms of the length of the observed time-series.
4.5 Cryosphere
Ice and snow cover have been monitored locally for at least a century, the last decades also from
space. Measuring techniques and coverage have gradually improved. Particularly important are
changes in mass balances of ice-sheets and glaciers which are the key information for assessing
water availability and changes in sea level. Changes in the extent and duration of snow-cover and
sea-ice are also important due to the feedback mechanisms in the global climate system created
by their change (albedo effect). Data on snow cover and Arctic sea ice have been measured
globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Data are available e.g. at the Global
Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) (Boulder, USA53). The World Glacier Monitoring Service
(Zürich, Switzerland) collects long term data (e.g. for some glaciers since 1894) globally
including European glaciers54. The evidence for changes is robust for the selected mountain
glaciers that are monitored intensively. But the majority of glaciers are still not monitored
intensively, and especially for the Greenland ice sheet, uncertainty in changes in mass-balances is
still high. Sensors in satellites have gradually improved and hence area-wide data on the
Greenland ice-sheet are not available for longer than about 15 years. There is more and more
evidence that melting rates for the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice are accelerating rapidly,
with an unknown risk of reaching tipping points. Monitoring and research activities in Greenland
have only recently been stepped up, and in time understanding may improve. Melting of
49
http://eca.knmi.nl/
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
51
http://www.ensembles-eu.org/
52
http://www.ecmwf.int
53
http://nsidc.org/
54
http://wgms.ch
50
33
permafrost has been observed, but data and knowledge for quantitative assessments are still
rather poor due to too short time-series (about 10-15 years).
4.6 Freshwater
4.6.1 Water quality and quantity
The data and information needed for environmental assessments of Europe’s waters are
generated via national and river basin monitoring networks set up for national (hydrological
services, water statistics etc.) or EU level purposes, in particular the Water Framework Directive
monitoring activities (and the related Water Information System for Europe, WISE)55. However
the current data and information flows from country to European level are for the moment not
optimal and European indicators and assessments are not always based on the information and
knowledge available/accumulated at national and regional level.
Water management related to freshwater can be divided into the following groups including the
main European/EU water policies (Directives/initiatives) in parenthesis56.
 River basin management. good ecological status and good groundwater status ‘
(Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Directive)
 Water scarcity and drought (WS&D) (Green paper on WS&D)
 Water pollution, water quality and emissions (Nitrate Directive, Urban Waste Water
Treatment Directive, IPPC Directive/E-PRTR, Chemicals and priority substances)
 Water and health (Drinking water Directive and Bathing water directive)
 Flood risk management (Floods Directive)
 Climate change impacts and adaptation (Green and white paper on climate and adaptation)
 Hydropower, (Energy policies with focus on more renewable sources)
Below the need of climate observation to support freshwater assessment, management and water
policies is tentatively evaluated based on the set of (WMO) Essential Climate Variables (ECVs).
Freshwater relevant ECVs are: Air temperature; precipitation; snow cover, glaciers and ice gap,
river discharge, groundwater, lake levels, and water use.
EEA has added some extra freshwater relevant climate variables (Other Climate Variables
(OCVs)): Water temperature; river and lake ice cover; evaporation (actual); drought episodes
(meteorological and hydrological); water balance/water availability; floods; low flow episodes;
and groundwater level.
For each of the main above ECV groups related to water management and policy assessment the
relevance of ECVs and Other Climate Variables (OCVs) is indicated in the table below as:
*** very important;
** important and
* relevant supplementary information.
The most important freshwater climate variables are also described in more detail below57.
55
56
http://water.europa.eu/
See; http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/index_en.htm
34
Table 6 - Selected Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and Other Climate Variables (OCVs) and
their relevance for freshwater assessments on policies and water management.
Air temperature
- lake, river and groundwater
temperature 1)
- river and lake ice-cover 2)
Precipitation
- evaporation (actual) 3)
- drought episodes 4)
(meteorological and
hydrological)
- water balance/water
availability
Snow cover 5)
Glaciers and ice caps 6)
River discharge
- floods
- low flow episodes
Ground water 7)
Groundwater level
Lake levels (including storage
in reservoirs)
Water use (water demand) 8)
Flood risks
Water and health,
drinking water quality
bathing water
Water pollution,
water quality,
emissions
Water scarcity and drought
Water Framework Directive
River basin management
Ecological status
Groundwater Directive
Note: *** very important; ** important and * relevant supplementary information. Fields are blank when
it is unclear what exactly the ECV is or when it is not clear whether the variable is used for fulfilling
requirements of a specific Directive or Policy.
Essential Climate Variables
(ECVs) and
Other Climate Variables
(OCVs)*
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
***
***
***
**
***
***
**
*
***
**
**
**
**
**
*
**
**
*
*
**
*
***
***
***
*
**
***
***
***
**
***
*
**
*
***
**
*
**
*
***
*
*
*
*
*
**
**
***
Notes and remarks: * Other climate variables (OCVs): proposed by EEA
1) Higher water temperatures, particularly in standing waters and low-flow situations in rivers, will bring about
changes in the physico-chemical condition of water bodies with subsequent impacts on biological conditions. This
may have severe consequences for ecosystem structure and function as well as for water use and ecosystem services.
2) Change in temperatures will affect the duration of ice cover, the freezing and thawing dates and the thickness of
the ice cover and in turn affect the ecological condition in lakes and river.
3) Evaporation (actual) is together with precipitation the main component of the water balance and estimates of
available water resource.
4) Droughts represent temporary decrease of the average water availability, refer to important deviations from the
average levels of natural water availability and are considered natural phenomena, while water scarcity is defined as
a situation where insufficient water resources are available to satisfy long-term average requirements. It refers to
57
Regarding ECVs see the GTOS submission to UNFCCC SBSTA 29, December 2008: Terrestrial framework
mechanisms and assessment of available standards and guides to terrestrial ECVs, GTOS-69
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/sbsta/eng/misc12.pdf
35
long-term water imbalances, where the availability is low compared to the demand for water, and means that water
demand exceeds the water resources exploitable under sustainable conditions
5) (from WHO ECVs) Snow cover extent (km2) and duration, snow depth (cm),
6) (from WHO ECVs) Glacier/ice cap inventory and mass balance (kg m-2 yr-1), glacier length (m), ice sheet mass
balance (kg m-2 yr-1) and extent (km2),
7) (from WHO ECVs) Ground water extraction rates (m3 yr-1) and location
8) The ECV in WMOs table is water use but in EEAs opinion that water demand is a better vaeiable.
Lake, river and groundwater temperature
Temperature is a major control of biological, hydro-chemical and hydro-physical processes in
water bodies, for instance growth rate and distribution of organisms and for vertical stratification
of lakes which impacts distribution of nutrients and oxygen. Water temperature has a strong
natural seasonal fluctuation but is also impacted by human perturbations such as deforestation,
flow regulation, cooling water from thermal power plants and by climate change. Thermal
conditions in surface waters are of socio-economical importance, for instance for tourism,
shipping, fisheries and water supply. Availability of long term water temperature records in
Europe is limited. For some records, methods for trend detection are not adequate. Additionally,
the regional distribution of the documented trends is not well-balanced – some countries have
excellent long term records at a considerable number of sites while other countries have only one
site. Currently there is no global or European data centre on trends in inland water temperature.
EEA compiled for its 2008 climate impacts report a first set of long term inland water
temperature and used it as an indicator58. There are however many national activities and
research activities that may be a basis for establishing a European overview of trends in water
temperature (e.g. Finland; UK; DK etc.)
River and lake ice cover
Freezing of lakes and rivers is directly connected to weather conditions, especially to air
temperature. The existence of ice cover has important effects on the stream-flow regime as well
as on the heat transfer between water bodies and the overlying atmosphere. Numerous studies
suggest the importance of long-term changes in average ice-on and ice-off dates of northern and
Alpine lakes and rivers as a sensitive indicator for climate variability and change. Analysis of
trends in northern hemisphere lake and river ice records over a 150-year period (1846-1995)
showed clear trends. Ice break-up in spring occurs on average nine days earlier. Autumn freezeup occurs ten days later. More than 350 years observation of the Tornio River in Finland also
shows a clear trend for the past decades.
Lake and river ice phenomena are monitored by hydro-meteorological services, environment
agencies and some limnological research institutes on a national level. The Global Lake and
River Ice Phenology Data base59 contains records for more than 750 sites. In addition several
national inventories (Finland, Sweden, Switzerland and UK), and results from European research
projects REFLECT, CLIME60, EUROLIMPACS61, and MOLAR62 have more specific European
information. JRC and EEA compiled for its 2008 climate impacts report an indicator on trend in
European river and lake ice cover63.
58
Water temperatures in four selected European rivers and lakes in the 20th century available at
http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=3728
59
http://nsidc.org/data/g01377.html
60
Climate and Lake Impacts in Europe, http://clime.tkk.fi/
61
Evaluating the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems, http://www.eurolimpacs.ucl.ac.uk/
62
Mountain Lake Research, http://www.mountain-lakes.org/molar/
63
http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=3730
36
River discharge64
Traditionally long-term river discharge measurements are the essential information source for
water resource management, including water management plans; drought management plans;
flood protection, irrigation and drainage schemes, international water allocation agreements, and
ecosystem management.
Discharge is measured on a routine basis at many river locations in Europe. The gauging stations
are generally well distributed over each country to form a basis for water resources assessment
and floods risk warnings. Some of this data is available from international databases, and several
countries offer Web based services allowing data downloading under different procedures from
fully open to semi-restricted and possibly pay-for services.
The Global Runoff Data Centre65 (GRDC) operates under the auspices of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) with the support of the Federal Republic of Germany
within the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG). It is a digital world-wide repository of discharge
data and associated metadata. Of European relevance is the European Water Archive (EWA, in
support of FRIEND of UNESCO-International Hydrological Programme). The database covers
141,000 station-years of gauged daily flow data for over 5000 gauging stations in 30 European
countries. Data is supplied to the archive on a voluntary basis, free of charge, and made freely
available to FRIEND researchers on condition that these data are used exclusively for FRIEND
research. Some countries are poorly covered (e.g. Greece with 2 stations) and the records are not
kept up to date.
GRDC also runs the European Terrestrial Network for River Discharge (ETN-R, in support of
European Flood Alert System EFAC maintained by JRC66. Many countries have online systems
providing observations on river (and lake) water level and river flow. Due to different national
data policies, technical, political or administrative obstacles the amount of discharge data
captured in the GRDC is only a fraction of the total available discharge data and in many cases
outdated.
Floods (and other natural disasters)
There are different types of floods, each with its characteristic properties, such as river floods,
flash floods, ice-jam or snow melt induced floods and coastal floods due to sea level rise. The
number of ‘reported’ flood disasters has increased considerably over the last decades. This
increase is due to several factors such as better reporting (increased media coverage), socioeconomic factors (increase in population and wealth in flood-prone areas) and land-use changes
(urbanisation, deforestation, loss of wetlands and natural floodplain storage via dyke
construction, river straightening and floodplain sedimentation).
In Europe there are various registers of flood events and the impact of floods. The main data
sources are:
 Emergency Disasters Database (EM-DAT) maintained since 1988 by CRED 67 provides data
on disasters and their human and economic impact, by country and type of disaster, at the
64
GTOS-56 draft assessment ECV 01: River Discharge: assessment report on available methodological standards
and guides, http://www.fao.org/gtos/ECV-T01.html
65
http://grdc.bafg.de/servlet/is/Entry.987.Display/
66
European Flood Alert System EFAS, http://efas.jrc.it/
67
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium
http://www.emdat.be/
37
global level. CRED is a World Health Organization collaborating centre based in Brussels.
EM-DAT includes all disasters from 1900 until present.
 Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO)68 detects, maps, and measures major flood events worldwide using satellite remote sensing.
 JRC, map and catalogue of the major flood events of the last 56 years in the EU69
 Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE70, a global database on natural catastrophes since 1950 in which
every year between 800 and 1,000 loss events are recorded and analysed.
However these historic data on natural disasters, including e.g. flood losses and casualties, are
neither comprehensive nor standardised, thus making long-term analyses at European level
currently very difficult.
Water scarcity and droughts, water availability, water use and demand
Water quantity and water resources information has traditionally been an important water aspect
in EEA State of the Environment and indicator-based reports. Water scarcity and drought events
are recognised as a major hazard throughout Europe, and have created large damages to natural
vegetation, agriculture, and society. Changes in the frequency and persistency of droughts
seriously affect water availability, ecosystems, agriculture, navigation, energy production,
tourism and other socio-economic sectors.
On European scale there is only limited information on the extent and impacts of water scarcity
and drought events. Based on Member States questionnaire a first overview of the extent and
impact of water scarcity and drought in Europe was produced in 200771.
Based on the assessment the Commission adopted a Communication: Addressing the challenge
of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union72 on 18 July 2007. The informal council of
Environment Ministers discussed water scarcity and drought end August 2007. The assessment
confirmed by the council conclusions noted high data gaps and data uncertainty in estimating
water availability, and water abstraction.
Much of the current information used to provide European overviews on water abstraction and
water use has been collected from countries by the joint Eurostat-OECD questionnaire on
environmental data. Although many countries have good monitoring and assessments of water
resources, water scarcity and droughts, currently the latest available data at European level are
for most of the countries often more than five years old. For some countries data may even be
more than 10 years old. To be more policy relevant we need to improve the timeliness of
European data.
In cooperation with Member States, the European Environment Agency (EEA) contributes to the
identification of relevant water scarcity and drought indicators. An initial set of parameters is
currently being developed. From 2009-2010, the collection of data at national and river basin
68
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/
Barredo, J.I. (2007) Major Flood Disasters in Europe: 1950-2005. Natural Hazards, 42, 125-148. www
70
http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/natcatservice/default.aspx
71
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/quantity/scarcity_en.htm
72
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council - Addressing the challenge of
water scarcity and droughts in the European Union {SEC(2007) 993} Available at http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52007DC0414:EN:NOT
69
38
level based on these parameters will make it possible to issue an annual European assessment of
how the extent and impacts of water scarcity and droughts are evolving across Europe.
The Commission's Joint Research Centre is developing an observatory and early warning system
on droughts. This will serve as a platform for forecasting, detection and monitoring and for
exchange of information. It adopts a multi-scale approach, is in line with the subsidiary principle
and will provide consistent information at European level. The first prototype is currently
undergoing extensive testing73. A number of on-going projects within EU research programmes
deliver further information in the field of water scarcity and droughts, such as e.g.
AQUASTRESS74 and RECLAIM WATER75.
Up to now European data collections have only national data on water availability and water
abstractions. However, data at national level may not be relevant or sufficient for some countries,
as water scarcity may take place in some river basins with a great impact without occurring in
other river basins. A focus at River Basin District (RBD) level appears necessary in order to duly
reflect local and regional vulnerability (or to identify water stressed regions) and the sectors
concerned and take appropriate actions in order to limit the causes of water scarcity situations.
In some regions of Europe (mainly southern Europe) temporal variability in precipitation within
the year frequently leads to serious problems of water scarcity, during the dry season (often
several months). In the dry season the amount of precipitation is often less than a quarter of the
annual average and together with high evaporation this result in very low water availability. This
phenomenon is exacerbated by seasonally high abstraction rates (e.g. irrigation by agriculture in
the dry season and increased summer tourism. Therefore indicators and data sets defined on an
annual basis are clearly inefficient to demonstrate the problem of water scarcity.
Conclusions freshwater
The quality of European water data collections and assessments are affected by the following
issues:
 Problems with timeliness of the data available at European level
 Current data flows are only covering a part of the information needed for European
assessments (country aggregated averages only on an annual time scale).
 More results and analyses at national and River Basin level are available but currently not
included in European data sets
 There is a lack of harmonization in estimation and quality assurance methodologies.
For the freshwater area there is a need for better data on past trends in precipitation, river flow,
water storage in form of snow and ice and water temperature. Better spatial and temporal
resolution of data needed for establishing water balance are a prerequisite for improving
assessment of water scarcity and drought. In the future climate change will affect water
availability including seasonality in dry and wet periods and better data are needed as a basis for
future water management.
73
http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/php/index.php?action=view&id=2
http://www.aquastress.net/
75
http://www.reclaim-water.org/
74
39
4.6.2 Water accounts
Under the Water Framework Directive a River Basin District / sub-units assessment of water
availability is proposed that would report on indicators of the status and trends in the hydrometeorological parameters and the hydrological freshwater resources budget. The proposed
monthly time step, where data are available, will allow distinguishing seasonal patterns and
assessing dry periods within a hydrological year, as well as investigating additional indices such
as the “Dry season flow index, WRI” which requires data from the dry season. It will also allow
the EEA to produce water accounts (data needs: calculable catchment, rainfall data, discharge
data, reservoir data, abstraction and return flow data).
Some additional data will be collected on water storage volume (for the natural or manmade
reservoirs in the RBD / sub-unit, groundwater and snow pack). These will allow for
comprehensive and integrated analyses of the water resources’ availability trends over long-term
and deeper assessment of water scarcity issues.
Table 7 – Proposed data collection under WFD on water resources76
Source: Working Group D – Reporting Activity on State of the Environment Reporting, Guidance on “Reporting
required for assessing the state of, and trends in, the water environment at the European level”, EEA, February 2009
76
40
4.7 Marine biodiversity and ecosystems
At the core of any assessment of the marine environment is to quantify and identify the current
state of, and impacts on it - how these are changing in time, and whether the policies/measures
taken at different levels are effective. Climate variables are important in this context because they
highlight the changes that have been observed in the ocean, in some cases over a 130 year period.
The most widely used climate variables used to describe changes in the marine environment are
sea surface temperature, sea level rise, pCO2, sea ice coverage, and changes in plankton
distributions. The time series of these variables are usually compiled based on historical in-situ
observations, and when possible, enhanced by more recent satellite observations. In the table
below Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and Other Climate Variables (OCVs) that are relevant
for assessing and reporting impacts of climate change in the main categories of transitional,
coastal and marine water policies are tentatively evaluated. These variables are not strictly
demanded by legislation, but are none the less “essential” for assessing climate change impacts.
In particular when they are combined with systematically sampled biological information, very
powerful assessments can be made. This combined information is unfortunately not always
available at the present.
Table 8 - Selected Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) for the marine environment and Other
Climate Variables (OCVs) and their relevance for marine environment assessments.
Note: *** very important; ** important and * relevant supplementary information. Fields are blank when
it is unclear what exactly the ECV is or when it is not clear whether the variable is used for fulfilling
requirements of a specific Directive or Policy.
41
Sea Surface and subsurface
temperature
Sea level
PCO2
Sea surface and subsurface
salinity
Sea State
Sea Ice
Surface and subsurface Currents
Ocean Color
Subsurface Nutrient
concentrations
Subsurface carbon
Subsurface tracers
Subsurface phytoplankton
Species biomass, composition and
geographical distribution of
plankton
Structure of fish popuplations
including the abundance,
geographical distribution and
age/size structure of populations
Species composition, biomass, and
annual/seasonal variability of
submerged aquatic vegetation and
benthic invertebrates
Water column density structure
Time series of heat and density
fluxes in relevant cross-sections
Common Fisheries Policy
Water Framework
Directive
(Coastal and Transitional
waters)
River basin management
Ecological status
Marine Strategy framework
Directive
(Marine waters to the EEZ
zone)
Essential Climate Variables
(ECVs)
***
***
***
***
***
*
***
***
***
***
***
***
**
***
***
***
***
**
***
***
***
***
**
***
***
***
***
***
?
***
***
***
?
***
***
***
?
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
**
**
**
**
**
**
Some relevant freshwater climate variables are also described in more detail below.
Sea level rise and sea surface temperature
Observations of both sea-level change77 and sea surface temperature78 are made using a network
of ground-based stations and by satellites. The land based observations of sea level are less
accurate and are affected by vertical movements of the earths crust (isostatic rebound), and cover
only few points in space. Observations of sea surface temperature are made in a network of ocean
77
See e.g. the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), hosted at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
(POL), UK. http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/
78
See e.g. Hadley centre, http://www.hadobs.org/
42
based stations, and similarly have low spatial resolution, but both parameters have been
measured for more than a century. The satellite observations of both sea surface elevation and sea
surface temperature are more accurate and are temporally and spatially comprehensive, but have
only been made for a relatively short period. By combining the two types of measurements,
accurate time series of historical changes in mean sea level and sea surface temperature have
been compiled. Projections of both sea-level change and sea surface temperature are, however,
highly uncertain because some of the most important physical processes involved are poorly
understood. In the case of sea-level change the processes include the internal ice-dynamics of the
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, changes in the thermal structure of the oceans, and changes
in the vertical movement of land. Sea surface temperature is affected by changes in ocean heat
content and large-scale ocean circulation, and the physical processes are poorly understood.
Marine biological environment
In the marine biological environment, observations have been made that indicate that marine
organisms are changing their seasonality and southerly species are moving northward which in
some cases can have serious ramifications for the entire marine foodweb. The studies that have
been done at the planktonic level (the bottom of the marine food web) are primarily made by the
Sir Alistair Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science using the Continuous Plankton Recorder79.
These observations are the only ones that have been made for a long enough time- period
(observations were started in 1958) and that cover a sufficiently large area (the North East
Atlantic and North Sea) to document that large-scale changes are occurring. The bottom of the
marine foodweb will also be first to be impacted by changes in ocean acidification; however the
rate at which oceans will become acidified is uncertain. Satellite observation of ocean colour is a
promising new monitoring technology, but can not yet show large scale changes in chlorophyll
concentrations because time series availability is currently too short (10 years). There is also a
shortage of ground observations available to interpret the causes of changes observed from space.
Observations have been made of some species of fish moving northward, but analysing
community changes is an area of emerging research. Because both the changes in the physical
oceanographic environment and marine biological response to the physical changes are poorly
understood, it is not possible to make projections for changes in marine biodiversity and
ecosystems.
Conclusions marine biodiversity and ecosystems
The relevance of variables shown in Table 8 reflect that the Directives and Policies in place for
protecting different parts of the transitional, coastal and marine environment are targeted at
protecting the environment against traditional environmental pressures rather than climate
change. This is because these pressures are usually the largest, but climate change has an
important add on effect of exacerbating the consequences of those pressures and is thus highly
relevant to consider. Most plants and animals that live in the sea respond to changes in the
physical/chemical environment that surrounds them and for this reason it is highly relevant to
monitor those changes. However, that response is in most cases poorly understood and for this
reason it is important to also consider the changes in the impacted biological communities. The
Water Framework Directive, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and the Common
Fisheries Policy already have extensive requirements in place to monitor different aspects of
biological communities and this information can be used, also in the context of understanding
climate change, but in return there is also a need to develop acceptance of the wider and more
79
Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, http://www.sahfos.ac.uk/
43
systematic use of the climate variables listed above in the context of existing Directives and
Policies.
From a management point of view it is also highly relevant to obtain an integrated understanding
of how climate affects the physical environment in entire sea basins, such as the Baltic Sea, the
North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, as well as projections of how this might
change in the future. Some of this work has already been done in the Baltic Sea where
projections have suggested that increased precipitation in the region may change the vertical
density structure of the sea (with consequences for the life cycles of plants and animals in the
sea) and work is ongoing to try to improve the understanding of the processes that drive renewal
of water in the deeper layers of the sea. While the specific climate variables may show a trend in
a certain direction, they do not in themselves provide the integrated understanding that is also
needed.
4.8 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture
4.8.1 Soil
Climate is a key factor of soil development that controls the main soil-forming processes and
directly or indirectly affects major soil threats in the EU. Wind soil erosion is triggered mainly by
wind speed combined with droughts. Changes in heavy rainfalls and the loss of vegetation cover
increase the risk of water erosion. However, the amounts of soil material removed by the erosion
are quantified only for small areas. There is only information available on erosion risks and not
on the real soil loss. Uncertainties concerning total soil loss and the impact of climate change in
relation to human management are very high.
Soils are the biggest reservoir of terrestrial carbon. Under constant environmental conditions the
rate of carbon accumulation in soil is balanced by the loss of carbon due to decomposition of
dead vegetation remains and mineralisation of humus. This balance results in storage of carbon in
soils over long periods. Higher temperature and less precipitation increase the rates of
decomposition/mineralization and accelerate the release of CO2 from soils into the atmosphere.
Decay of peat also leads to significant emissions of CH4 and N2O into the atmosphere. The
amount of these GHG emissions from soils can be much higher than reductions through
mitigation measures and can therefore seriously accelerate global warming. The magnitude of the
carbon turnover in soils on the EU scale is insufficiently understood, making assessment and
quantification of the effect of climate change on soils and evaluation of feedback of soil impact
on climate uncertain. Biodiversity of soil organisms is very complex and still poorly monitored.
The organisms are very important for processes such as the decomposition of organic matter and
for ecosystem stability. But there are only very few data about species that are winners or losers
under changing climate and the impacts these changes may have on ecosystem functioning. A
better understanding of soil processes under climate change would need more information on
trends in extreme weather events, more detailed data on carbon storage and in-depth
understanding of soil processes under changing climate.80
80
See further information also http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ and the European Soil Data Center,
http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/esdac/index.html
44
4.8.2 Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity
Phenology and diversity of plants and animals show significant changes, but observed trends are
still rather fragmentary in terms of European coverage and number of observed species. A
fundamental problem is the different sensitivity of individual species to changes in temperature,
precipitation, humidity and other climate variables. Using the observed distribution of species in
relation to current climate conditions allows projections of the natural habitat of these species
under future climates. However, these take no account of the individual resilience and adaptation
capacity of the species, positive and negative impacts of management and risk of disconnection
of predator — prey relations in the food web. The impact of climate change on the number of
individuals per species (abundance), which is also very important for genetic variety and
consequently for survival, so far was considered only to a very limited extent. Monitoring of
biodiversity is based partly on regular screening of plants and species in protected areas. Most of
the pan-European information is based on temporary research projects, including ALARM
(Assessing large scale risks for biodiversity with testes methods)81, MACIS (Minimisation of and
adaptation to climate change impacts on biodiversity)82, GLORIA (Global Observation Research
Initiative in Alpine Environments)83, voluntary networks and the activities of NGOs. There is
more information on observed changes in phenology, based mainly on voluntary observation
networks than for changes in distribution. However there are only very general projections on
phenological changes, based mainly on interpretations of changes in temperatures. More efforts
are needed to improve monitoring, especially in areas where data sampling is still rather poor or
data exist but are not accessible. A more systematic and harmonised observation of species and
their abundance across Europe is needed to improve the still very fragmented knowledge of
climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity.
4.8.3 Agriculture and forestry
The agriculture and forestry sectors are affected by climate change and non-climatic impacts.
Both sectors are clearly dominated by management, and it is therefore difficult to attribute
specific trends from field observations uniquely to a changing climate. Nevertheless, direct
observations and model based reconstructions allow the identification of specific climate-related
impacts on plant growth. Also very extensive experiments e.g. FACE (free-air
CO2 enrichment experiments) are being performed to investigate the impacts of climate change
on crop and tree species, including interactions with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations
and the impacts of management. Results are then extrapolated using models to simulate the
physiological response of plants to changing conditions. There is still significant lack of
knowledge and data on the individual responses of species to climate change and the subsequent
changes in competition in forests and grasslands, also because the responses of species depend on
age and time of exposure. More precise analyses and projections for agriculture and forestry
would further require more detailed information on management for each site and forest stand.
Data and projections of fire risks are rather robust. The European Forest Fire Information System
(EFFIS) is maintained by the Joint Research Centre (JRC).84 EFFIS addresses forest fires in
Europe in a comprehensive way, providing EU level assessments from pre-fire to post-fire
phases, thus supporting fire prevention, preparedness, fire fighting and post-fire evaluations.
81
http://www.alarmproject.net/alarm/
http://www.macis-project.net/index.html
83
http://www.gloria.ac.at/
84
http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
82
45
EFFIS is supported by a network of Experts on Forest Fires from 22 EU countries. Projections
of the impacts of other extreme events like storms are very uncertain. There is a big gap in
information on the possible changes in pressures from pests and diseases on crops and forests
under a changing climate.
Pan-European assessments will certainly be more precise and accurate when specific local
conditions and physiological constrains of crops, trees and pests are fully taken into account. But
lack of knowledge on physiological responses of individual plant species to climate change and
still inaccurate projections of future climate at the regional level make projections rather
uncertain, especially in areas where precipitation is the limiting factor for agriculture and
forestry. Projections for areas where temperatures are the limiting factor are expected to deliver
more robust results.
4.8.4 Human health
Climate change impacts on human health include direct impacts due mainly to heat waves,
storms and floods, and indirect impacts by vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. Positive
impacts include a lower risk of deaths from low temperatures. Quantification of the direct
impacts of temperature has been attempted in several studies; quantification of the other extreme
events and indirect impacts lacks empirical studies. A review of the health impact assessments of
climate change has been made in the context of the fourth assessment report of the IPCC 85 .
Several research needs have also been identified in the projects cCASHh (climate Change and
Adaptation Strategies for Human health in Europe)86, EDEN87 (Emerging diseases in a changing
European environment) and MICRODIS (Integrated Health Social and Economic Impact of
Extreme Events: Evidence, Methods and Tools)88. Regarding projections, few assessments of the
potential future health impacts of climate change have been made. They stress various limitations
and rarely quantify the health impacts. Methods and tools to assess 'unpredictable' events, e.g.
unknown and new pathogen agents and transmission modes, are needed. There is also a need for
integrated approaches through international networks and research combining vector biology and
ecology, microbiology, hosts, vectors and pathogens genetics, epidemiology, medical and social
sciences, including economics. The ECDC (European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control)
has started in 2008 a project on impacts of climate change on food- and water-borne (FWB)
diseases in Europe89. WHO has started in 2009 a project on climate change and health indicators.
However there are many data gaps at the appropriate spatial and temporal resolution, needed for
proper climate change related decision making. An example is the lack of information on vector
competence under a changing climate of many arthropod species (insects, ticks), competence of
many vertebrate (rodents, bats, other wild mammals, birds) species and an understanding of the
genetic, biological and ecological basis of vector/host distribution and their transmission
competence for bacteria, viruses and parasites. An important source of uncertainty is the extent to
which adaptation actions, such as preventive measures and appropriate changes in health
systems, will be implemented and effective over the next few decades. Furthermore analysis is
needed of effective combinations of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions to reduce
cardio-respiratory diseases.
85
WG II, chapter 8: human health; Confalonieri et al., 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm
http://www.euro.who.int/globalchange/assessment/20070403_1
87
http://www.eden-fp6project.net/
88
http://www.microdis-eu.be/
89
http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/Health_Topics/Climate_change/actions.aspx
86
46
4.9 Projections
To improve the development of adaptation strategies, high-resolution, tailor-made climate
change scenarios at the regional or even local levels are needed, and at the appropriate scale.
Thus the above requirements on the past to present state of the climate system will in principle
also apply to forward-looking studies. However, there will be limitations on some of the aspects,
due to limitations in both global and downscaled regional climate change models. There are
various causes of uncertainties including incomplete understanding of the physical, chemical and
biological processes; different global/regional climate models; insufficient length of time series
to validate these models and possibly most importantly the uncertainty in future emissions from
human activities.
Great care needs to be taken to avoid overextending the spatial and temporal resolution of the
information beyond statistical and analytical credibility as this will lead to a false sense of
reliability amongst users. Instead information from regional and sub-regional models should be
published with the uncertainties underlying them and the caveats for their use clearly embedded
with them.
It would be useful if European climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment projects would
adopt the same contrasting set of global climate scenarios, such as those used by IPCC, and make
use of the same or similar regional climate projections. Furthermore improvement of climate
models is needed, e.g. through producing ensembles of climate simulations and thus present
probabilities of future climate. There will be a need both for explorative research for the very
long term (centuries) and for analysis of climate-change impacts in the medium term (decades)
for which better adaptation actions urgently need to be developed. However, despite uncertainties
in existing climate change scenarios (which should be presented transparently), stakeholders will
have to make decisions, which could then be further improved as more detailed scenarios become
available.
47
5. Current GMES services and gaps
The existing GMES services already provide climate-related information within their specific
domains. However, the cross-cutting nature of climate change and its range of impacts on the
environment and human health, property and infrastructure impose requirements beyond the
definition and scope of the already existing services, which will be highlighted in the following
sections.
5.1 Land
GMES Land Environmental Services aim to provide operationally sound, reliable and affordable
land related geo-information products on the regional, European and global scale. By the
combined analysis of data received from Earth Observation satellites and ground based
measuring networks these services aim to provide wide-area and cross-border harmonized geoinformation products for a multitude of thematic areas, like land use / land cover change, soil
sealing, water quality and availability, spatial planning, forest management, carbon storage and
global food security. Selected examples of products from various European regions can be
viewed and tested on the Land Information Services portal90.
Two core services have so far been established within the Geoland project91. These serve the
Geoland observatories, providing them with basic geo-information products that the various
services can build their individual efforts on:
 The Core Service Generic Landcover provides the Geoland regional observatories with
harmonized, topical and geometric correct basic information on landcover.
 The Core Service Bio-Geophysical Parameters supplies generic information on biogeophysical attributes of land surfaces at regional and global scales to the global
observatories within Geoland.
According to recent GCOS progress reporting92, however little progress is made towards fineresolution land cover maps as one concrete example. GlobCover93 is the first detailed highresolution (300 m) land cover map at global level, generated by ESA in partnership with FAO
and UNEP. However, no global product is available at the required 10-30 m resolution.
Currently, the European GMES land monitoring core service is planning a medium-resolution
product (approx. 30 m) for Europe and a higher-resolution product (approx. 1 m) for urban areas.
The US and some other countries also have a comparable national land-imaging programme. No
concerted action towards a global product has been achieved, however.
Reanalysis is within the scope of Geoland, however, the envisaged time period covers only a few
years, which limits its usefulness to detect trends or significant changes in the environment.
90
http://www.land.eu/
http://www.gmes-geoland.info/ and http://www.gmes-gseland.info/
92
Draft Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the
UNFCCC 2004-2008,
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf
93
http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEMXB7TTGOF_index_0.html
91
48
5.2 Marine
MyOcean94 is a EU FP7 project with the objective to define and to set up a concerted and
integrated pan-European (GMES) capacity for Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting. MyOcean
Service provides information available on the Ocean for the large scale (worldwide coverage)
and regional scales (European seas), based on the combination of space and in situ observations,
and their assimilation into 3D simulation models on temperature, salinity, currents, ice extent,
and sea level. The areas of benefit are: Maritime security, oil spill prevention, marine resources
management, climate change, seasonal forecasting, coastal activities, and ice sheet surveys. Also
some efforts are made at modelling ecosystem changes.
MyOcean aims at providing real time observations, analysis and forecast. The specific services
provided in 2009 are described in a catalogue95, while in 2010 a single and entry point and a
direct access to products will be offered.
It is important to note that MyOcean provides a core data service whereas there is less emphasis
on interpretation. A reanalysis is planned in the last part of the project, but the focus of the
project is more on providing the service and less on providing assessments/interpretations.
According to recent GCOS progress reporting96, there is still little progress in the process of
establishing frameworks for internationally-coordinated ocean observations in the Arctic.
Instead, a EuroGOOS Regional Operational Oceanographic System (ROOS)97 was established to
coordinate Arctic observations, data management, analyses and forecasts between European
participants. The Arctic ROOS has today a key role in developing European GMES marine core
services in the Arctic. Regarding sustained sea-ice observations from space, there has been
improvement in sea ice concentration algorithms from satellite data on the part of several space
agencies and associated groups, such as NOAA, the EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite
Application Facility, the ESA GlobIce programme and the GMES Polar View service.
Knowledge of the three dimensional state and dynamics of the global ocean is a key requirement
for seasonal and climate prediction. This imposes requirements on the data sets, and in particular
a sufficiently long data record is important to properly define characteristics such as the mean
state of the marine environment, fluctuations, past trends and future projections. MyOcean
already includes ambitions for reanalysis elements both at the global scale and for specific
regions (Arctic, Black Sea) using the latest ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis data as atmospheric
driver. The envisaged period of reanalysis comprises 1993 – present, which is expected to deliver
a solid proof of concept of marine reanalysis. Yet, for the detection of significant changes/trends
in the environment, longer time series would be clearly beneficial.
94
http://www.myocean.eu.org/
http://www.myocean.eu.org/repository/full_catalogue_v0.pdf
96
Draft Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the
UNFCCC 2004-2008,
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf
97
http://arctic-roos.org/
95
49
5.3 Atmosphere
The GMES Atmosphere Core Service (GACS) in its current design provides coherent
information on a number of atmospheric variables in support of European policies and for the
benefit of European citizens. Its services cover air quality, climate change/forcing, and
stratospheric ozone and solar radiation.
According to recent GCOS progress reporting98, substantial progress is being made on vertical
profiles for greenhouse gases, ozone and aerosols. Furthermore, there have been important
launches of both operational and research missions providing enhanced measurement of
atmospheric composition, and major commitments and initiatives towards future missions such
as the GMES Sentinels and the CEOS Atmospheric Chemistry Virtual Constellation are
underway.
Regarding integrated analyses of CO2 and CH4 observations, integration of greenhouse gas
observations and their assimilation in models has occurred within the NOAA Carbon Tracker
system, as well as under the European GMES initiative. Another CO2 and CH4 tracking system
has been developed by the EU-funded GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring
using Satellite and in situ data) project.
Even in the area of satellite atmospheric composition measurements, considerable progress has
been made with the launch or planning of new operational instruments, such as GOME-2 on
Metop, a number of high-spectral resolution infrared sounders and the GMES Sentinel series.
However, although valuable information on many ECVs is already available from this service, it
was in first place designed to deal with atmospheric composition. Consequently, from a climate
perspective its main objective is to provide information on the climate forcing rather than the
physical state of the climate. Even in the GAS implementation project MACC (Monitoring
Atmospheric Composition and Climate), a follow-up of the earlier projects GEMS99 and
PROMOTE100, atmospheric composition and air quality will be prioritized. Limited reanalysis of
GHGs, reactive gases, aerosols is already planned for the period of 2003-2010. Although this is
already an important activity, longer time series would be beneficial.
It is beyond the scope of the existing GACS implementation projects to provide a complete
physical and environmental picture of multi-decadal past trends, present status and future trends
(projections) of the climate system, which is a likely key requirement on a mature GMES
Climate Service contribution. This gap will need to be filled. Thus, in addition to the
incorporation of climate relevant deliveries from ongoing/already funded projects, new GMES
Climate Service implementation projects (e.g. European global and regional reanalysis capacity
building projects) will probably be needed. As pointed out in the discussion on general climate
change needs above, it will be crucial to design the new services so that their information content
can and will be applied for European policy making. Thus, the services and their information
content need to be easy accessible, include uncertainty assessments, properly communicate
98
Draft Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the
UNFCCC 2004-2008,
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf
99
http://gems.ecmwf.int/
100
http://www.gse-promote.org/
50
uncertainty, include educational facilities, include tailoring to specific user groups and use cases,
and provide information and data at the appropriate geographical coverage, record length,
consistency, spatio-temporal resolution and fit-for-purpose quality.
5.4 Emergency
The GMES Support to Emergencies and Humanitarian Aid services target three main application
domains:
 Civil Protection: National Civil Protection Services of Europe, DG ENV (European CP Unit),
and more globally all risk management actors in Europe at different territorial scales
 Humanitarian Aid: DG RELEX, DG ECHO, NGOs
 Security crises: European Council, Member States
At EU level a Community Mechanism for Civil Protection101 exists with the main role to
facilitate co-operation in civil protection assistance interventions in the event of major
emergencies which may require urgent response actions. It can provide added-value to European
civil protection assistance by making support available on request of the affected country. A
Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC), operated by the European Commission, is the
operational heart of the Community Mechanism. A Common Emergency Communication and
Information System (CECIS) facilitates communication between the MIC with National
Authorities in the different phases of emergencies (Prevention, Preparedness, Response). It hosts
a database on potentially available assets for assistance, to handle requests for assistance on the
basis of these data, to exchange information and to document all action and message traffic.
The European Commission adopted in Feb 2009 a Communication on a Community approach on
the prevention of natural and man-made disasters102. Proposed action at Community level focuses
on developing knowledge, linking actors and policies, and improving the performance of existing
Community disaster prevention instruments. It mentions specifically the need for creating an
inventory of information on disasters, and notes that the currently available information needs to
be improved to fill gaps and improve comparability. It also mentions the need for Community
guidelines for hazard and risk mapping. GMES is expected to provide a basis for various actions
mentioned in the Communication.
The current GMES services address all types of disasters: natural disasters (floods, fires,
landslides, storms, earthquakes, etc.), technological accidents, humanitarian crises (for instance
after a severe drought period), civilian-military crises.
Pre-operational services for Crisis management support have been developed by the GMES
Service Element for Humanitarian Relief - RESPOND and the GMES Service Element for Civil
Protection – RISK-EOS103. Additionally further work in the Civil Protection domain is being
carried out under the 6th Framework Programme project PREVIEW104. The development of the
prototype GMES Emergency Response service is currently performed by the SAFER project105
which is partly funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme.
101
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/civil/prote/mechanism.htm
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/civil/pdfdocs/com_2009_82en.pdf
103
http://www.risk-eos.com/actus/pge/index.php?arbo=0
104
http://www.preview-risk.com/site/FO/scripts/myFO_accueil.php?lang=EN
105
http://www.emergencyresponse.eu/
102
51
There are already some elements of relevance to a CC service existing in the GMES Emergency
service. However, most of the work is on real-time activities, e.g. rapid mapping, and long term
time series at the required spatial detail are not available. Furthermore some of the work covers
only parts of Europe.
5.5 GMES in-situ coordination
The EEA FP7-proposal for the coordination of the in-situ component of GMES is at this stage
still under review.
The proposed project will offer proofs of concept based on the data flows and requirements of
FP7 pre-operational projects; and will leave a robust legacy of processes to enable the
requirements of the future Core Services for such data and products to be met. In support of the
GMES Bureau, the action will similarly explore how a future management (governance,
architecture) of the in situ component during an operational phase might best be achieved. This
will ensure that elements of data essential for the delivery of operational user-driven services are
integrated in the developing services, and are provided with the necessary quality and efficiency.
The picture is not static; the nature of the activity will evolve over the lifetime of the project, and
the follow-up arrangements must be capable of further evolution.
Example elements of the in-situ coordination relevant in connection to a possible GMES climate
change contribution are the following:
 Adequate descriptions of the status and trends of the Earth system components – In-situ data
are key for activities such as hindcasting and analysing Global and European climate, e.g.
reanalysis and downscaling techniques.
 By its nature, Climate Change is cross-cutting through many thematic domains, affecting,
e.g., all other GEO societal benefit areas (agriculture, biodiversity, disasters, ecosystems,
energy, health, water, weather) – Thus, there are likely to be in-situ coordination needs
beyond the requirements imposed by the already existing service components.
52
6. Summary of main data needs and gaps
The paper has shown the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and exchange and
reducing uncertainties in projections, to improve climate change impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation assessments. Especially in the key environmental areas of freshwater, marine and
terrestrial biodiversity/ecosystems and land use/soil, there is a need for long-term data series (e.g.
decades) to allow for trend analysis and extreme value analysis as well as a need for a higher
spatial resolution.
GMES is already contributing relevant climate change related data and information in several of
the existing services (Marine Services; Atmospheric Service; Land Services; Support to
Emergencies and Humanitarian Aid).
Considerable progress within GCOS, supported by GMES, is reported from the field of
atmosphere and to minor extent from the ocean (e.g., vertical profiles for greenhouse gases;
ozone and aerosols, integrated analyses of CO2 and CH4 observations; satellite atmospheric
composition measurements; sustained sea-ice observations from space; establish frameworks for
internationally-coordinated ocean observations in the Arctic). On the terrestrial side, progress
supported by GMES is low (e.g. regular fine-resolution global land cover maps), and no
significant GMES commitment is made for many of the other GCOS actions (overarching and
cross-cutting actions; atmospheric domain actions; oceanic domain actions; terrestrial domain
actions).
The needs mentioned above for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments
go beyond what the currently operational initial GMES services can deliver at this stage. At
present, these services focus to a large extent on nowcasting and near real time and short term
(days) forecasting products and data. Remote sensing and in-situ observational systems have
different strengths and weaknesses. Regarding past trends of the climate, there is a need to ensure
a better exploitation of the diverse sources of information, combining and integrating them in a
consistent way through blending techniques such as reanalysis. The concept of reanalyses and
downscaling provides a promising technique to meet these demands. This will though need the
allocation of funding for the development of reanalysis capacity (e.g. through FP7) as well as a
governing framework for the maintenance and operation of the capacity (e.g. through a GMES
climate change contribution). The existing GMES projects do aim to include reanalysis activities
in all three earth system component services (land, ocean, atmosphere), but the reanalysis
elements are generally constrained to short time periods which limits their usefulness to detect
significant changes/trends in the environment. It will also be important to include projections of
climate change impacts into a GMES climate change contribution.
The key information needs for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments
are appropriate:
 geographical coverage (the impacts of climate change transcend the boundaries of individual
countries, thus there is a need for alternative analysis units such as catchments, sea basins,
bio-geographic regions),
 record length (allowing for the detection of significant trends/changes in the environment)
 consistency,
o in time (homogeneity considerations, to allow for comparability of information)
53
o in space (e.g. in the analysis across national boundaries to allow for pan-European
comparability of assessments)
o between variables/indicators (also for non-physical and non-chemical variables such
as socio-economic variables)
spatio-temporal resolution, (e.g. regional reanalysis)
quality (fit-for-purpose)


Furthermore climate data are also needed for environmental accounting system (System of
Environmental-Economic Accounting, SEEA), in particular water accounting.
The table below is an attempt to summarize current requirements for several thematic domains
and some key climate variables. This list should though not be taken as constant, as the
requirements are likely to change over time, e.g. in the light of an evolving adaptation framework
and adaptation actions, for some of the main climate variables. A key cross-cutting requirement
is the need for consistency, in particular with regard to integrated climate change and
environmental assessments.
Table 9 - Key data requirements for assessments on climate change impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation by thematic area
(Eco)system
Component /
Service
Wind energy
Air pollution
Storm / storm
surges
Temporal
resolution
hourly - average &
extremes
extremes
Spatial
resolution
< 10 x 10km
< 10 x 10km
10 x 10
Biomes
Vegetation change
monthly
< 50 x 50km
Forest
Growth and yield
daily – montly
< 1 x 1km
Agriculture
Biodiversity
Yield and biofuels
Species distribution
and habitats
Water quantity
Floods
< daily
monthly and
seasonal extremes
monthly
hourly - daily
< 1 x 1km
< 10 x 10km
Water and wind
erosion
layer mixing
ecosystem dynamic
Coastal systems
Hourly
< 1 x 1km
monthly
Synoptic weather
< 100 x 100 km
< 100 x 100 km
< 10 x 10 km
Atmosphere106
Freshwater
Soil
Marine
10 x 10km
< 1 x 1 km
Time period
seasonal-years decade
seasonal-years decade
seasonal-years decades
seasonal-decades centuries
years-decades century
years
years-decades
years-decades
seasonal-yearsdecades
years - decades
seasonal-years –
decades
seasonal-years
years-decades
Finally to improve the development of adaptation strategies, also high-resolution, tailor-made
climate change scenarios at the regional or even local levels are needed, and at the appropriate
106
As characterized by variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction, humidity, etc.
54
scale. Thus the above requirements on the past to present state of the climate system will in
principle also apply to forward-looking studies. However, there will be limitations on some of
the aspects, due to limitations in both global and downscaled regional climate change models.
There will be a need both for explorative research for the very long term (centuries) and for
analysis of climate-change impacts in the medium term (decades) for which better adaptation
actions urgently need to be developed.
55
7. Conclusions and recommendations
Requirements on a GMES climate change contribution to support climate change impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation assessments will go beyond the requirements for the existing GMES
services.
A GMES climate change contribution should therefore provide the following elements:
 Long time series of processed observations
 Consistent information, both across the variables within a specific earth system component
but also across the components taking into account interactions (in particular feedback)
mechanisms between different components of the climate system
 Use appropriate geographical coverage, quality and granularity of information (in time and
space)
 Projections of climate change impacts relevant for ecosystem based climate change impact,
vulnerability and adaptation assessments
 Easily accessible products and services for the general public
 Expert interpretations and integrated assessments
56