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Towards a possible GMES Contribution for Climate Change – EEA information needs for environmental assessments as a basis for European policy making Draft, 2 June 2009 Content Summary and recommendations ................................................................................................ 3 1. Introduction and background ................................................................................................. 7 1.1 GMES – Status ...................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Document background .......................................................................................................... 8 1.2.1 Expert meeting on reanalysis ......................................................................................... 8 1.2.2 JRC meeting on space-based climate change observations ........................................... 9 1.2.3 EEA meeting on global environmental observation, monitoring and forecasting ......... 9 1.2.4 Scope of this document ................................................................................................ 10 2. Scope of a possible GMES Climate Change Contribution................................................... 11 3. Key EU environmental policy processes ............................................................................. 13 3.1 Climate change mitigation and co-benefits for air quality .................................................. 13 3.2 Climate change adaptation .................................................................................................. 14 3.3 Freshwater ........................................................................................................................... 18 3.3.1 EU Policies and Directives ........................................................................................... 18 3.3.2 EU Water accounts ....................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Marine/coasts ...................................................................................................................... 21 3.5 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, forestry .............................................................. 22 3.5.1 Land use and soil .......................................................................................................... 22 3.5.2 Biodiversity (terrestrial ecosystems) ............................................................................ 24 3.5.3 Agriculture ................................................................................................................... 25 3.5.4 Forestry......................................................................................................................... 26 3.6 Health .................................................................................................................................. 28 4. Key climate change information needs ................................................................................ 30 4.1 Global .................................................................................................................................. 30 4.2 European mitigation ............................................................................................................ 31 4.3 European adaptation ............................................................................................................ 32 4.4 Atmosphere and climate ...................................................................................................... 32 4.5 Cryosphere .......................................................................................................................... 33 4.6 Freshwater ........................................................................................................................... 34 4.6.1 Water quality and quantity ........................................................................................... 34 4.6.2 Water accounts ............................................................................................................. 40 4.7 Marine biodiversity and ecosystems ................................................................................... 41 4.8 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture ............................................................................. 44 4.8.1 Soil ............................................................................................................................... 44 4.8.2 Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity ....................................................................... 45 4.8.3 Agriculture and forestry ............................................................................................... 45 4.8.4 Human health ............................................................................................................... 46 4.9 Projections ........................................................................................................................... 47 5. Current GMES services and gaps......................................................................................... 48 5.1 Land ..................................................................................................................................... 48 5.2 Marine ................................................................................................................................. 49 5.3 Atmosphere ......................................................................................................................... 50 5.4 Emergency ........................................................................................................................... 51 5.5 GMES in-situ coordination ................................................................................................. 52 6. Summary of main data needs and gaps ................................................................................ 53 7. Conclusions and recommendations ...................................................................................... 56 2 Summary and recommendations Introduction This paper provides an introduction to the scope of a possible GMES climate change contribution from an EEA perspective; an overview of the main relevant policy environmental processes that need climate change information; the key information needs for assessments needed to underpin these environmental policy processes (with a focus on climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments needs); a short summary of the current GMES services and possible gaps and finally a summary of main data needs and gaps from an environmental perspective. Key EU environmental policies International negotiations are under way to conclude a global agreement at the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen (December 2009) for the period after 2012. The EU's objective is to ensure that the global average temperature does not increase more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. To avoid this, global emissions of greenhouse gases must peak before 2020 and then decrease by at least 50% by 2050. In December 2008 the EU reached an agreement on a climate change and energy package with targets for 2020 for greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. However, further knowledge from research will be helpful, in particular on long term low greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation and low emission scenarios. Such knowledge could e.g. assist in better defining long term climate targets and cost-effective global and European pathways to avoid dangerous global climate change. In addition enhanced knowledge on co-benefits of climate change policies on improvement of air quality can help in further developing air quality policies (such as the EU national emission ceiling directive). Some of the information needs related to climate change mitigation (e.g. regarding emission reductions from land use change and forestry) are already provided through existing GMES services. To what extent these existing or future GMES services can further support climate change mitigation has not been assessed in this paper. The paper focuses primarily on information needs in the area of climate change adaptation that could be covered by a GMES climate change contribution. The Commission published a White Paper on Adaptation in April 2009. The White Paper sets out a framework to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. It notes that the knowledge base should be improved and better access to existing information should be provided. An effective way to improve knowledge management would be to establish a Clearing House Mechanism on climate change impact, vulnerability and best practices on adaptation. The White paper mentions also that further work is necessary on methods, models, data sets and prediction tools, which assist in understanding and forecasting climate impact, in identifying vulnerabilities and in developing appropriate adaptation measures. The Clearing House Mechanism would include results from such further work and also information provided by GMES. Regarding water, the Water Framework Directive establishes a legal framework to protect and restore clean water across Europe by 2015 and to ensure the long-term sustainable use of water. The River Basin Management Plans due in 2009 will take into account the impacts of climate change and the next plans due in 2015 should be fully climate-proofed. In addition, climate 3 change must also be properly integrated in the implementation of the Floods Directive. For water scarcity, the Commission will assess the need to further regulate the standards of water using equipment and water performance in agriculture, households and buildings. When reviewing in 2012 the implementation of the Water Framework Directive and the Water Scarcity and Droughts strategy, options for boosting the water storage capacity of ecosystems to increase drought resilience and reduce flood risks should be evaluated. Regarding habitats, the impact of climate change must also be factored into the management of Natura 2000 to ensure the diversity of and connectivity between natural areas and to allow for species migration and survival when climate conditions change. In future it may be necessary to consider establishing a permeable landscape in order to enhance the interconnectivity of natural areas. Climate change must also be properly integrated in the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive which requires the achievement of good environmental status of the EU's marine waters by 2020. Full implementation of this Directive will help increase resilience in the marine environment and facilitate adaptation efforts. The Integrated Maritime Policy will provide a comprehensive framework to integrate adaptation efforts coherently into sectoral and specific policies and measures. Efforts must be stepped up to ensure that the provisions in the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Recommendation are fully respected and strengthened. The follow-up to the Roadmap for Maritime Spatial Planning will incorporate adaptation to climate change in maritime and coastal management. Furthermore climate data are also needed for environmental accounting system (System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, SEEA), in particular water accounting. Information needs for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments The paper shows the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and exchange and reducing uncertainties in projections, to improve climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Especially in the key environmental areas of freshwater, marine and terrestrial biodiversity/ecosystems and land use/soil, there is a need for long-term data series (e.g. decades) to allow for trend analysis and extreme value analysis as well as a need for a higher spatial resolution. Past to present The key information needs for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments are requirements for appropriate: geographical coverage (the impacts of climate change transcend the boundaries of individual countries, thus there is a need for alternative analysis units such as catchments, sea basins, bio-geographic regions), record length (allowing for the detection of significant trends/changes in the environment) consistency, o in time (homogeneity considerations, to allow for comparability of information) o in space (e.g. in the analysis across national boundaries to allow for pan-European comparability of assessments) o between variables/indicators (also for non-physical and non-chemical variables such as socio-economic variables) spatio-temporal resolution, (e.g. regional reanalysis) 4 quality (fit-for-purpose) Projections To improve the development of adaptation strategies, high-resolution, tailor-made climate change scenarios at the regional or even local levels are needed, and at the appropriate scale. Thus the above requirements on the past to present state of the climate system will in principle also apply to forward-looking studies. However, there will be limitations on some of the aspects, due to limitations in both global and downscaled regional climate change models. There are various causes of uncertainties including incomplete understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes; different global/regional climate models; insufficient length of time series to validate these models and possibly most importantly the uncertainty in future emissions from human activities. It would be useful if European climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment projects would adopt the same contrasting set of global climate scenarios, such as those used by IPCC, and make use of the same or similar regional climate projections. Furthermore improvement of climate models is needed, e.g. through producing ensembles of climate simulations and thus present probabilities of future climate. It will be extremely important however, to avoid downscaling to a level which has no statistical or analytical credibility as this is likely to encourage users to believe that exact solutions exist for particular locations and so not put in place a precautionary or flexible approach to adaptation. There will be a need both for explorative research for the very long term (centuries) and for analysis of climate-change impacts in the medium term (decades) for which better adaptation actions urgently need to be developed. Because of the uncertainties in existing climate change scenarios (which should be presented transparently), it will be important to encourage a greater understanding of the risks amongst those stakeholders who will have to make decisions. A better appreciation of the changes to existing legislation, assessment, asset management and design criteria will also need to be put in place which could then be further improved as more detailed scenarios become available. Current GMES services GMES is already contributing relevant climate change related data and information in several of the existing services (Services ‘Marine’, ‘Atmosphere’, ‘Land’, and ‘Emergency Response’). Considerable progress within GCOS, supported by GMES, is reported on monitoring of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) from the field of atmosphere and to a minor extent from the ocean (e.g., vertical profiles for greenhouse gases; ozone and aerosols, integrated analyses of CO2 and CH4 observations; satellite based atmospheric composition measurements; sustained sea-ice observations from space; establishment of frameworks for internationally-coordinated ocean observations in the Arctic). On the terrestrial side, progress supported by GMES is low (e.g. regular fine-resolution global land cover maps), and no significant GMES commitment is made for many of the other GCOS actions (overarching and cross-cutting actions; atmospheric domain actions; oceanic domain actions; terrestrial domain actions). The needs mentioned above for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments go beyond what the operational initial GMES services can deliver at the current stage. This is also due to the cross-cutting nature of climate change and its range of impacts on ecosystem, human health, property and infrastructure. At present, the GMES services focus to a large extent on nowcasting and near real time and short term (days) forecasting products and data. Remote sensing and in-situ observational systems 5 have different strengths and weaknesses. Regarding past trends of the climate, there is a need to ensure a better exploitation of the diverse sources of information, combining and integrating them in a consistent way through blending techniques such as reanalysis. The concept of reanalysis and downscaling provides promising techniques to meet the demands. This will need the allocation of funding for the development of reanalysis capacity as well as a governing framework for the maintenance and operation of the capacity. The existing GMES projects do aim to include reanalysis activities in all three earth system component services (land, ocean, atmosphere), but these reanalysis elements are generally constrained to short time periods which limits their usefulness to detect significant changes/trends in the environment. Summary of elements of a possible GMES climate change contribution The information needs summarised above go beyond the existing GMES services. Thus summarised a GMES climate change contribution should provide the following elements: Long time series of processed observations Consistent information, both across the variables within a specific earth system component but also across the components taking into account interactions (in particular feedback) mechanisms between different components of the climate system Use of appropriate geographical coverage, quality and granularity of information (in time and space) Projections of climate change impacts relevant for ecosystem based climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments Easily accessible products and services for the general public Expert interpretations and integrated assessments 6 1. Introduction and background 1.1 GMES – Status Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) aims – through joint use of spacebased and in-situ measurements – to offer operational services in various areas. It represents a concerted effort to bring data and information providers together with users, so they can better understand each other and make environmental and security-related information available to the people who need it through enhanced or new services. GMES aims to support in particular decision-making by both institutional and private actors. The following pre-operational services were officially presented at the GMES Forum in Lille in September 2008: Marine Services Atmospheric Services Land Services Support to Emergencies and Humanitarian Aid Support to security -related activities The progressive implementation of GMES from the concept to pre-operational and finally operational services is made possible by the activities and investments of EU and ESA Member States. These and other public and private contributions are jointly supported by the European Commission (EC) and the European Space Agency (ESA). In 2006, the Commission established the GMES Bureau1, with responsibility for creating an implementation strategy for GMES, promoting GMES to stakeholders and the wider general public and ensuring that data from in-situ observing systems, a critical dependency for operational GMES services, are available to meet the requirements. In 2008, the Commission mentioned2 that EEA is expected to play a role in in-situ data coordination under the SEIS umbrella, while some coordination activities could be delegated to other existing relevant coordination bodies3. EEA has submitted a proposal on coordination of in-situ data in response to the FP7 Space Call SPA ENV INFR 2009, aiming to stimulate open access to all relevant in-situ data for operational GMES service provision. In the light of a changing global and European climate and its associated expected and already experienced impacts, there is a need to further extend the portfolio of GMES services. GMES has the ambitious objective to play a key role in fostering Earth observation activities as the main contribution of the EU to GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of the Systems). Whilst the existing core services addressing earth system components – namely land, ocean (“marine”) and atmosphere – already provide valuable information and products containing many of the Global Observing System (GCOS) Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), this contribution is still far from Commission Decision creating a Bureau for GMES – (http://www.gmes.info/library/files/1.%20GMES%20Reference%20Documents/GMES_Bureau_EN.pdf) 2 GMES 2008 Communication - We care for a safer planet - COM(2008) 748 final – (http://www.gmes.info/library/files/1.%20GMES%20Reference%20Documents/COM-2008-0748.pdf) 3 For instance, EUMETNET (the European network of meteorological services) for meteorological insitu observation systems and services; EUROGOOS (the European Association for the Global Ocean Observing System); EUROGEOGRAPHICS (the European association of National Mapping and Cadastral Agencies) and Eurogeosurveys (the European Association of Geological Surveys) for cartography, geology, mapping and reference data; and EMODNET (the European Marine Observation and Data Network) for marine data or other bodies under the umbrella of the EU Integrated Maritime Policy. 1 7 complete. In addition, specific tailoring of information packages for monitoring of climate change has still to be addressed in GMES. In particular, information about the physical state of the Earth system and its components is needed to describe the current status of the Earth environment from regional to global scale, and its evolution in the short to medium-term, considering a wide range of space- and time-scales. In its conclusions, the Competitiveness Council of 1-2 December 2008 highlighted in particular “the intention of the Commission to propose an approach for the contribution of GMES to climate change monitoring and other global change issues, and to continue the development of security services, and considers that these issues should be clarified by end 2009”, inviting the Commission to “foster the implementation of the GMES climate change monitoring and the GMES security services to support the related European Union policies”4. 1.2 Document background 1.2.1 Expert meeting on reanalysis EEA held an expert meeting (Copenhagen, 11-12 February 2009) on climate information services based on atmospheric reanalyses and considering also the wider perspective of a GMES climate service. The meeting was attended by the Commission (GMES Bureau, DG JRC, DG RTD), EEA, ECMWF, EUMETNET, ESA, EUMETSAT, GEO, GCOS as well as representatives from a number of countries, predominantly from meteorological services5. The meeting provided a first discussion of requirements on climate monitoring information with a particular focus on environmental assessments as a basis for policy making. Identifying and mapping climate change impacts and vulnerabilities but also dealing with them by means of adaptation requires the provision of data at appropriate geographical coverage, consistency, record length, spatio-temporal resolution and quality. The concept of reanalyses and downscaling6 provides a promising technique to meet these demands. This will though need the allocation of funding for the development of reanalysis capacity (e.g. through FP7) as well as a governing framework for the maintenance and operation of the capacity (e.g. GMES). Regarding the wider perspective of a possible GMES climate service, the meeting provided a starting point for further actions7. One action point was for EEA to provide a documentation of needs on a possible climate service from the perspective of environmental assessments as a basis for policy making. This action is in line with the Commission Communication on GMES8, expressing the expectation on EEA to “to play an important role, in coordination with the Commission, in relation to the supervision of some services and coordination with user communities under the SEIS umbrella.” The latter is the background and mandate for the Council Conclusions on Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES): “Towards a GMES programme” (http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/08/st16/st16722.en08.pdf Last visited 23/04/2009) 5 http://eea.eionet.europa.eu/Public/irc/eionet-circle/gmes/library?l=/public/workshops/meeting_reanalysis/ 6 Reanalysis is a blending technique which combines different observation streams (in-situ and remote sensing) and a model built on physical laws. Downscaling is a technique to refine information through nested reanalysis and/or statistical methods. 7 http://eea.eionet.europa.eu/Public/irc/eionetcircle/gmes/library?l=/public/workshops/meeting_reanalysis/reanalysis_finaldoc_1/_EN_1.0_&a=d 8 GMES 2008 Communication - We care for a safer planet - COM(2008) 748 final – (http://www.gmes.info/library/files/1.%20GMES%20Reference%20Documents/COM-2008-0748.pdf) 4 8 provision of the present document. This document is also intended to serve as an input to a broader user consultation process for a possible GMES climate change contribution. 1.2.2 JRC meeting on space-based climate change observations JRC organised an expert meeting (Ispra, 30-31 March 2009) on prospects on European capacity for monitoring and assimilating space-based climate change observations in response to the request from the 5th Space Council on Space and Climate Change 26 September 2008. The latter work comprises a “study to assess the needs for full access to standardised data and for increased computing power and the means to fulfil them taking into account existing capacities and networking in Europe” together with the process of inventorying European contributions to ensure the long-term provision of ECVs. A meeting report was prepared by JRC with the following (draft) conclusions. Existing climate capacities and networking in Europe provide a solid foundation, but computing power for this distributed skills-base must increase, and the means to fulfil the needs cannot be realized with the current dependence on research funding. Effective provisioning of data, including Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), can be made by securing a stable financial platform which guarantees sustained support for a) the space segment making measurements, b) for the processing, product generation and their QA/QC and c) for reanalysis and assessment strategies to turn these data into policy relevant information. Europe’s scientific community, in conjunction with the EC, ESA, EUMETSAT/NET, ECMWF and Member States Institutions have the capability to deliver, but don’t currently have the continuous means. The EEA document, focusing more on the (policy) user needs, is meant to be complementary to the JRC report. 1.2.3 EEA meeting on global environmental observation, monitoring and forecasting Furthermore EEA organised an international meeting on ‘Global environmental observation, monitoring and forecasting’9 (Copenhagen, 13-15 May 2009). Participants included representatives from GEO/GEOSS (secretariat), WMO, GCOS (secretariat), GLP, GBIF, GOOS, LOICZ, GCP, UNEP, FAO, UNECE, ESA, European Commission (GMES Bureau, DG RTD, DG ENV), EEA. Participants focused on how existing and planned environmental information systems can best serve the needs of society today and in the future. The main conclusion was that present efforts and activities still fall short of the growing demand from scientists, citizens and policy-makers for information to enable societies to respond and adapt to the challenges of global environmental change. Draft meeting statement: There is a clear need to intensify efforts to increase the sustainability, co-ordination, quality, extent and operational capabilities of today’s global observing, monitoring and forecasting systems and to demonstrate more effectively how these global systems are vital for the future of society. Key actions 9 Link to insert (CIRCA) 9 1. Strengthening the links between the global observing, monitoring and forecasting programmes and national and regional activities. Placing more attention on carbon budgets, ocean acidification, monitoring of the cryosphere, biodiversity and ecosystem services and the establishment of more reference sites for long term monitoring. 2. Extensive mapping of the provision and gaps in common variables, delivery systems and outputs from existing programmes against the range of needs of the different end users in developed and developing countries. 3. Improving more broadly, systematic data collection and meta-data compilation, in particular through stronger cross-environmental thematic linkages. 4. Intensifying R&D activities and the development of human potential in the fields of environmental observing, monitoring and forecasting and establishing mechanisms for the results to be more systematically integrated into operational services. 5. Improving data standards harmonisation and delivery systems through a direct engagement with standard setting bodies and agreements. 6. Improving data discovery, availability, near real-time access and traceability including data tagging for citation tracking. 7. Securing international agreement for free and open access to environmental data. 8. Linking global observing outputs to the identification and estimation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. 9. Developing citizen observing activities using new sensors and reporting agreements and technologies. 10. Developing and intensifying the use of a coherent set of advocacy materials tailored to the needs of different communities, with the aim of supporting the continued development of the global observing, monitoring and forecasting programmes. Although these conclusions cover a broader area than climate change they are relevant for the issue of climate change and a possible future GMES climate contribution. 1.2.4 Scope of this document This document provides: A short introduction on the scope of a possible GMES climate change contribution from an EEA perspective An overview of the main relevant policy environmental processes that need climate change information Key information needs for assessments needed to underpin these environmental policy processes (with a focus on climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments needs) Current GMES services and possible gaps Summary of main data needs and gaps from an environmental perspective Conclusions and recommendations As an important step in the process of consolidating the requirements, this document will be subject to an EIONET consultation in order to incorporate the views of the EEA member and cooperating countries. 10 2. Scope of a possible GMES Climate Change Contribution The climate system comprises the atmosphere and the subsystems, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere interacting and influencing atmospheric processes. These subsystems are different but are all linked together forming a globally integrated climate system. The integrated character is reflected well in the portfolio of the GCOS essential climate variables (ECVs)10, which is an ambitious selection of most relevant physical and chemical components of the climate system. Table 1: List of Essential Climate Variables as given in the 2004 Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (IP-04)11. Domain Essential Climate Variables12 Surface: Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice) Oceanic Terrestrial14 Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour. Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties. Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases13, Aerosol properties. Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure. Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton. River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture15. 10 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=essentialvariables and Draft Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC 2004-2008, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf 11 GCOS (2004): Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC, GCOS-92, October 2004, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos-92_GIP.pdf 12 Bold and italic can be monitored from space (italics indicate ECVs included in GCOS report 107, which were different from those included in the original 2004 IP, see http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos107.pdf 13 Including nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). 14 Includes runoff (m3 s-1), ground water extraction rates (m3 yr-1) and location, snow cover extent (km2) and duration, snow depth (cm), glacier/ice cap inventory and mass balance (kg m-2 yr-1), glacier length (m), ice sheet mass balance (kg m-2 yr-1) and extent (km2), permafrost extent (km2), temperature profiles and active layer thickness, above ground biomass (t/ha), burnt area (ha), date and location of active fire, burn efficiency (%vegetation burned/unit area). 15 Recognized as an emerging Essential Climate Variable (not part of the 44). 11 However, the impacts of climate change are relevant for areas beyond the essential physical and chemical characteristics. Climate affects environment and human well-being as for example described in the GEOSS societal benefit areas, namely agriculture, biodiversity, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water and weather. There is therefore an overall need to not only gain a better understanding of the climate but also of its impacts, including ecosystem, human and economic aspects. The existing GMES services each focus on a particular component of the Earth system16. Taking into account the integrated nature of the climate system and the crosscutting aspects of climate impacts it becomes clear that a GMES Climate Service would need to go beyond domain-specific divisions and to integrate many thematic domains at the same time. Regarding user requirements on a possible GMES Climate Service, the cross-cutting nature of climate change impacts implies that its user groups are likely to come from many different backgrounds and sectors. Defining and finding the users and requirements for a GMES Climate Service can thus be expected to be even more complicated than defining the user community and requirements for a service that addresses a specific Earth system component or sector (such as the current pre-operational services). In addition, many stakeholders will have multiple roles17. Stakeholders include both providers and users, while users include e.g. decision makers, policy makers, researchers and the general public. Many other users exist, and their needs will cover a variety of aspects to consider within the user consultation process, e.g. the spatio-temporal resolution and quality of data and services, spatial domains for ECVs and other variables (e.g. socio-economic). Thus, a user consultation process for a GMES Contribution to Climate Change will need to address the problem from many different angles. It will be especially important to take into account that data and information need to have the following characteristics: have sufficient geographical coverage; are sustainable, i.e. are based on widely accepted technologies, and have sufficient funding streams; are analytically tractable, i.e. have sufficient sampling density and can be interpreted in terms of policy needs; can be used to detect significant changes in key environmental variables, ecosystem goods and services; and where relevant are forward-looking, i.e. can be used in forecasting and forward studies. The present document aims to contribute to that process by elucidating requirements on a GMES Contribution to Climate Change from one specific angle – the perspective of the EEA and its member countries (EIONET18) with a particular focus on environmental assessments as a basis for European environmental policy making and information to be delivered in the context of the existing and upcoming reporting obligations. To better explain user needs from this perspective the paper explains the state of play of key EU environmental policy processes and the policy needs for climate change information are shortly outlined in the following chapter. It has to be noted that the existing Earth system component-specific services need to and already do – to some extent – take into account some interaction at the boundaries of their respective Earth system component of focus (e.g. sink processes such as pollutant deposition from the atmosphere to the ground represent sources to the land/ocean components). 17 As an example, the research community is in one context a provider of scientific knowledge/information and education regarding climate but at the same time it will be a user that is expected to benefit significantly from a GMES Climate Service. 18 http://www.eionet.europa.eu/ 16 12 3. Key EU environmental policy processes 3.1 Climate change mitigation and co-benefits for air quality The present mitigation (greenhouse gas emission reduction) commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (e.g. 8% reduction of EU15 emissions by 2008-2012 from 1990 levels) are only the first step in addressing the climate change threat. The ultimate goal of the UNFCCC is to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that avoids dire consequences from human interference with the climate system. The EU's objective is to ensure that the global average temperature does not increase more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. To avoid this, global emissions of greenhouse gases must peak before 2020 and then decrease by at least 50% by 2050. The necessary cuts in global emissions can be achieved only if all countries contribute their share according to their responsibility and capacity. And even if the temperature increase stays below 2°C there will still be a need for significant adaptation efforts by all countries (see below). In December 2008 the European Parliament and Council reached an agreement on a climate change and energy package that will help transform Europe into a low-carbon economy and increase its energy security. The EU is committed to reducing its overall emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and is ready to scale up this reduction to as much as 30% under a new global climate change agreement when other developed countries make comparable efforts. It has also set itself the target of increasing the share of renewables in energy use to 20% by 2020. International negotiations are under way to conclude a global agreement at the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen (December 2009) for the period after 201219. The successful conclusion of these negotiations is a key priority for the EU. There are a number of challenges to address including: Targets by developed countries and appropriate actions by developing countries; The need to address the financing of actions by developing countries (both to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change); The need to build an effective global carbon market. The need to reform the Kyoto’s Clean Development Mechanism. Emissions from international aviation and shipping, which are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol, should be included in the overall targets of the new agreement. Including action on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in the new agreement. Furthermore the EU policy on air quality aims to develop and implement appropriate instruments to improve air quality by control of emissions from mobile sources, improving fuel quality and promoting and integrating environmental protection requirements into the transport and energy sector. A key element is the revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive 19 See e.g. DG ENV, http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm and UNFCC, http://unfccc.int/ 13 2001/81/EC (NECD). This is still under preparation and should set emission ceilings to be respected by 2020 for the four already regulated substances and for the primary emissions of PM2.5 as well. The revision builds upon the work performed under the Clean Air for Europe Programme, and new scientific and technical work. The revision takes into account the recently agreed EU climate change and energy package, because there are substantial co-benefits and reductions in costs of measures by doing so. 3.2 Climate change adaptation Addressing climate change requires substantial reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions but we must also take "adaptation" actions to deal with the unavoidable impacts. Even if an ambitious post-2012 global climate change agreement is achieved by end of 2009 in Copenhagen (COP15, UNFCCC), that would be in line with the EU targets, meaning a global greenhouse gas emissions reduction by at least 50% to achieve a maximum global average temperature increase of 2 C above pre-industrial levels, there will still be climate change impacts society will need to adapt to. Adaptation should thus be addressed in a planned way to ensure that timely and effective measures are taken ensuring coherency across different sectors and levels of governance. The Commission published a White Paper on Adaptation in April 200920. The White Paper sets out a framework to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. It builds on the consultation launched in 2007 by the Green Paper on Adapting to Climate Change in Europe21, complementing actions by Member States, of which about 10 have already prepared their national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing and proposing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries since these elements are also essential within a post2012 climate agreement. However this document focuses mainly on Europe and a summary of the key conclusions from the White Paper are provided here. Climate change will impact a number of sectors. In agriculture projected climatic changes will affect crop yields, livestock management and the location of production. The increasing likelihood and severity of extreme weather events will considerably increase the risk of crop failure. Climate change will also affect soil by depleting organic matter – a major contributor to soil fertility. The effects of climate change on forests are likely to include changes in forest health and productivity and changes to the geographic range of certain tree species. Climate change will be an added stress for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. Effects will also be severe on coasts and marine ecosystems. Coastal erosion rates will increase and existing defences may provide insufficient protection. In this context, islands and outermost regions deserve special consideration. In the energy sector, climate change will have a direct effect on both the supply and demand of energy. The projected impact of climate change on precipitation and glacier melt indicate that 20 White Paper, Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action Brussels, 1.4.2009 COM(2009) 147 final http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/pdf/com_2009_147_en.pdf 21 Green Paper from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action {SEC(2007) 849} 14 hydropower production could increase by 5% or more in northern Europe and decrease by 25% or more in southern Europe. Decreased precipitation and heat waves are also expected to influence negatively the cooling process of thermal power plants. On the demand side, increasing summer peaks for cooling and impacts from extreme weather events will affect in particular electricity distribution. Extreme climate events cause huge economic and social impacts. Infrastructure (buildings, transport, energy and water supply) is affected, posing a specific threat to densely populated areas. The situation could be exacerbated by the rise in sea level. A more strategic and long-term approach to spatial planning will be necessary, both on land and on marine areas, including in transport, regional development, industry, tourism and energy policies. Tourism is likely to suffer from decreasing snow cover in Alpine areas and from increasing temperatures in Mediterranean regions. Unsustainable forms of tourism can exacerbate the negative effects of climate change. Changing weather conditions will also have profound effects on human health. As extreme events become more frequent, weather-related deaths and diseases could rise. Climate change will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources, affecting many sectors including food production, where water plays a crucial role. More than 80% of agricultural land is rain-fed. Food production also depends on available water resources for irrigation. Limited water availability already poses a problem in many parts of Europe and the situation is likely to deteriorate further due to climate change, with Europe’s high water stress areas expected to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070s. This could also increase migration pressures. Climate change will increasingly drive ecosystem including marine ecosystems and biodiversity loss, affecting individual species and significantly impacting ecosystems and their related services, on which society depends. Ecosystems play a direct role in climate regulation with peat lands, wetlands and the deep sea providing significant storage for carbon. In addition, salt marsh ecosystems and dunes provide protection against storms. Other ecosystem services will also be affected such as the provision of drinking water, food production and building materials and oceans can deteriorate through acidification. Some land use practices and planning decisions (e.g. construction on flood plains), as well as unsustainable use of the sea (e.g. overfishing) have rendered ecosystems and socioeconomic systems more vulnerable to climate change and thus less capable of adapting. It will be important to improve the knowledge base the coming years and provide better access to existing information. A considerable amount of information and research already exists, but is not shared across Member States. An effective way to improve knowledge management would be to establish a Clearing House Mechanism as an IT tool and database on climate change impact, vulnerability and best practices on adaptation. The Clearing House Mechanism would contribute to the Shared Environmental Information System22, the collaborative initiative by the European Commission and the European Environment Agency (EEA) to establish with the Member States an integrated and shared EU-wide environmental information system. The Clearing House Mechanism would also rely on geographical information provided by the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES). 22 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/seis/ 15 Methods, models, data sets and prediction tools, which can be enabled by information and communication technologies, assist in understanding and forecasting climate impact, in identifying vulnerabilities and in developing appropriate adaptation measures. Further work is necessary to develop these tools. In cooperation with the Member States, vulnerability must be assessed against a wide range of climate scenarios and on different geographical scales so that adaptation measures can be defined as precisely as possible. The Commission is currently examining ways to improve the monitoring of impacts and adaptation measures in order to develop vulnerability indicators. More quantified information on the costs and benefits of adaptation is also urgently needed. Support for adaptation should be enhanced under the current 7th Framework Programme and future programmes. In addition, coordination should be enhanced where Member States are spearheading important adaptation research. Proposed Actions (EU and Member States) on developing the knowledge base (Commission, White Paper, April 2009) Take the necessary steps to establish by 2011 a Clearing House Mechanism Develop methods, models, data sets and prediction tools by 2011 Develop indicators to better monitor the impact of climate change, including vulnerability impacts, and progress on adaptation by 2011 Assess the cost and benefit of adaptation options by 2011 Regarding water, a number of existing EU policies are contributing to adaptation efforts. In particular, the Water Framework Directive (see also chapter 2.2.1) establishes a legal framework to protect and restore clean water across Europe by 2015 and to ensure the long-term sustainable use of water. The River Basin Management Plans due in 2009 under the Directive will take into account the impacts of climate change and the next generation of plans due in 2015 should be fully climate-proofed. In addition, climate change must also be properly integrated in the implementation of the Floods Directive. Full implementation of this Directive by the EU Member States will help increase resilience and facilitate adaptation efforts. For water scarcity, the Commission will assess the need to further regulate the standards of water using equipment and water performance in agriculture, households and buildings. When reviewing in 2012 the implementation of the Water Framework Directive and the Water Scarcity and Droughts strategy, options for boosting the water storage capacity of ecosystems to increase drought resilience and reduce flood risks should be evaluated. Regarding habitats, the impact of climate change must also be factored into the management of Natura 2000 to ensure the diversity of and connectivity between natural areas and to allow for species migration and survival when climate conditions change. In future it may be necessary to consider establishing a permeable landscape in order to enhance the interconnectivity of natural areas. Furthermore a discussion has started on future biodiversity policies and targets, also addressing climate change, and a meeting was held on this topic in Athens (27-28 April 2009), organised by the European Commission23. On climate change the meeting concluded the following. We cannot BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION - BEYOND 2010 “Priorities and options for future EU Policy", http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/biodiversity/conference/index_en.htm 23 16 halt biodiversity loss without addressing climate change, but it is equally impossible to tackle climate change without addressing biodiversity loss. It is therefore essential that climate change policy is fully complementary with biodiversity policy. The EU institutions and the Member States should: Ensure that climate mitigation and adaptation measures are fully compatible with policies for the conservation of biodiversity. Promote the implementation of “triple win” of measures that conserve biodiversity while actively contributing to climate mitigation and adaptation. Ensure that international climate negotiations respect the above principles. Proposed Action (EU and Member States) on increasing the resilience of biodiversity, ecosystems and water (Commission, White Paper, April 2009) Explore the possibilities to improve policies and develop measures which address biodiversity loss and climate change in an integrated manner to fully exploit co-benefits and avoid ecosystem feedbacks that accelerate global warming Develop guidelines and a set of tools (guidance and exchange of best practices) by the end of 2009 to ensure that the River Basin Management Plans (RBMP) are climate-proofed Ensure that climate change is taken into account in the implementation of the Floods Directive Assess the need for further measures to enhance water efficiency in agriculture, households and buildings Explore the potential for policies and measures to boost ecosystem storage capacity for water in Europe Draft guidelines by 2010 on dealing with the impact of climate change on the management of Natura 2000 sites Climate change must also be properly integrated in the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive which requires the achievement of good environmental status of the EU's marine waters by 2020. Full implementation of this Directive will help increase resilience in the marine environment and facilitate adaptation efforts. A more coherent and integrated approach to maritime and coastal planning and management is also necessary. The Integrated Maritime Policy will provide a comprehensive framework to integrate adaptation efforts coherently into sectoral and specific policies and measures. Efforts must be stepped up to ensure that the provisions in the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Recommendation are fully respected and strengthened. The follow-up to the Roadmap for Maritime Spatial Planning will incorporate adaptation to climate change in maritime and coastal management. Proposed Action (EU and Member States) (Commission, White Paper, April 2009) Ensure that adaptation in coastal and marine areas is taken into account in the framework of the Integrated Maritime Policy, in the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and in the reform of the Common Fisheries Policy. Develop European guidelines on adaptation in coastal and marine areas 17 3.3 Freshwater 3.3.1 EU Policies and Directives The Water Framework Directive (WFD) came into force in December 2000 and establishes a new legal framework for the protection, improvement and sustainable use of all water in Europe. It applies to rivers, canals, lakes, lochs, groundwater, wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters and requires governments to take a holistic approach to their management. The WFD has the following key aims: to expand the scope of water protection to all waters, surface waters and groundwater and providing an overall framework for water management; to achieve "good status" for all waters by 2015; to provide for an integrated approach to water management based on river basins and combining emission limit values and quality standards; to promote sustainable water use based on a long-term protection of available water resources; and to provide for greater public involvement in key decisions on water management. The best model for a single system of water management is management by river basin - the natural geographical and hydrological unit - instead of according to administrative or political boundaries. The Water Framework Directive requires a river basin management plan to be established for each river basin district (including those with cross national frontiers). The first river basin management plans are required by 22 December 2009 and must be updated every six years. The Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine issues published together with the White Paper on adaptation (April 200924) mentions the following. This flexible management framework is well-suited to managing adaptation to the impacts of climate change as it will enable new information on the impacts of climate change and the measures necessary to adjust to be incorporated into the revised river basin management plans. The requirement under the Water Framework Directive for Member States to take a crosssectoral approach to water management will also facilitate the necessary cross-sectoral action on adaptation and provide a framework for consideration of the relationship between the use and management of the natural environment (e.g. land) and the quality and availability of water resources. Further, the achievement of "good ecological status" for all waters as provided in the Water Framework Directive will contribute strongly to improving and maintaining biodiversity in the aquatic environment, as well as those ecosystems which rely on the aquatic environment. Work is on-going at a European level to develop by the end 2009 comprehensive guidelines and a set of tools for incorporating climate change into future river basin management plans. The Water Framework Directive is complemented by the Floods Directive and the policy on water scarcity and droughts. These provide a more specific framework for adapting to the key water-related impacts of climate change. 24 Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine, http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:SEC_2009_0386:EN:NOT 18 The Floods Directive establishes a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks aimed at reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods in Europe. The Directive requires Member States to assess if all water courses and coast lines are at risk from flooding, to map the flood hazards and identify assets and humans at risk in these areas and to take adequate and coordinated measures to reduce the flood risk. In line with the integrated river basin approach taken under the Water Framework Directive, the Directive also requires Member States to coordinate their flood risk management practices in shared river basins, including with third counties, and to avoid taking measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries. Co-ordination with the implementation of the WFD is required under Article 9 of the Floods Directive from the second River Basin Management Plan. The Floods Directive therefore provides a comprehensive mechanism for assessing and monitoring increased risks of flooding due to climate change and for developing appropriate adaptation approaches. The coordinated approach with the river basin management plans will ensure an overall effective approach and help avoid maladaptation measures. Alongside an increased risk of flooding, climate change will make water scarcity and droughts an increasingly frequent phenomenon. In July 2007 the Commission adopted a Communication on addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union setting out a number of policy options for addressing the challenge of water scarcity. The measures identified in the Communication represent an important tool box for responding to the increased likelihood of such events due to climate change. In particular, the Communication identified the importance of moving towards a water-efficient and water-saving economy and the important roles played by water pricing and land-use planning in incentivising efficient water use. The Commission reviewed progress towards addressing water scarcity and droughts in December 2008 and will conduct an annual European assessment of water scarcity and droughts making it possible to monitor changes across Europe and to identify where further action is needed in response to climate change. In addition, a review of the strategy for water scarcity and droughts is planned for 2012. Table 2 - Potential planned adaptation options for Water25 Type of action Description Mitigate the threat Water supply measures (desalinisation) Certain land use practices that enhance flood risks should be addressed, for example by an obligatory climate change related long term assessment of the risks related to certain land uses in a river basin and coastal area to floods, both to reduce the potential damage of assets at risk as well as to ensure better use of land for reduction of the flood hazards Prevent effects Water demand management. As a first step, improved incorporation of current climate variability into water-related management would make adaptation to future climate change easier. Water management should turn from focusing on meeting the increasing demand and protecting people from extremes of floods and drought, to protection of water resources in an integrated manner 25 Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT 19 Change land use. Land management and land planning need to adapt in order to progress towards optimally water saturated land. A stable water cycle is required. Basic ecological functions like the return of water and vegetation to land need to be reintroduced. The ability of land to retain water needs to be improved. This can be achieved by the restoration of wetlands. The priority should be to keep rainwater in places where it falls, particularly in areas with significant impacts due to human activities. An improved infiltration of water into the soil and progress towards soil saturation will help the restoration of groundwater and surface water resources and therefore the development of permanent vegetation accompanied by cooler temperatures. Efforts need to take place everywhere but more particularly in hot spots like highly cultivated areas and highly populated areas. Action includes technological measures like improvement of surfaces to help soil infiltration, anti-erosion measures, use of vegetation borders, grassy lands, limiting of non-vegetation hard surfaces in builtup areas, replacing impermeable areas with permeable ones, avoiding clear-cutting of forests, ensuring the quality and structure of forests, etc. Zoning and land planning need to evolve in order to make the development of such measures possible and effective. Many actors have responsibility in this respect: public authorities in charge of overall land planning, developers of building areas, construction companies, banks and insurance companies. 3.3.2 EU Water accounts The UN Statistics Division (UNSD) has set up an environmental accounting system (System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, SEEA)26, in collaboration mainly with national statistical institutes but also increasingly with involvement of (national) environmental agencies. EEA is involved in particular with preparing environmental accounts for Europe for ecosystems and water. The basic calculations for water resource management and scarcity assessments are standardized via the SEEA Water 200327. EU-Member States will report on water accounts based on the SEEA approach. Figure 1 – Overview of system of water accounts 26 27 http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/ http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/seeaw.asp 20 3.4 Marine/coasts The Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine issues published together with the White Paper on adaptation (April 2009)28 mentions the following. Climate change will have a particular impact on the marine environment and coastal zones with consequent impacts on maritime activities. The EU Integrated Maritime Policy provides a comprehensive framework for addressing maritime activities from a cross-sectoral perspective. This facilitates the integration of adaptation efforts for coastal and marine areas into specific policies. In this context, the Commission acknowledged in its Blue Paper29 that risk management may impact heavily on the budget and economy of coastal zones in the future and indicated support for adaptation related to maritime activities, the marine environment, coastal zones and islands. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the environmental pillar of the Integrated Maritime Policy aims at protecting more effectively the marine environment across Europe. It requires the EU's marine waters to achieve good environmental status by 2020. This will protect the resource base upon which marine-related economic and social activities depend. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive establishes European Marine Regions on the basis of geographical and environmental criteria. Member States (in cooperation with other Member States and non-EU countries within a marine region) are required to develop strategies for their marine waters containing a detailed assessment of the state of the environment, a definition of "good environmental status" at regional level (wherever possible) and the establishment of clear environmental targets and monitoring programmes. The first elements of marine strategies are due by 2012 and are required to be updated every 6 years. As with the Water Framework Directive, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive can facilitate adaptation by ensuring that climate change considerations are incorporated into marine strategies and by providing a mechanism for regular updating to take account of new information. The flexible and adaptive approach of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive as well as the reliance on Marine Regions and Sub-Regions as management units should allow for a flexible adaptation to the specific impacts of Climate Change at regional level. The achievement of ‘good environmental status’ of Europe's marine environment under the Marine Strategy will, as in the case of 'good ecological status' for the Water Framework Directive, prevent a deterioration in the quality of the marine environment as a result of climate change. Europe's coastal zones are of strategic importance to the European Union. They are home to a considerable percentage of European citizens, a major source of food and raw materials, a vital link for transport and trade, the location of some of our most valuable habitats, and the favoured destination for leisure time. However, due to climate impacts, these zones are facing increasing environmental, economic and social problems. The inter-connection between land and sea makes effective and integrated coastal and maritime management essential. The Commission has highlighted the need for better integrated coastal zone management. In this context, there is a 28 Commission policy paper on Water, Coasts and Marine, http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0386:EN:NOT 29 'An Integrated Maritime Policy for the European Union', COM(2007) 575 final. 21 need to follow up on the Roadmap on Maritime Spatial Planning. The Recommendation concerning Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Europe provides for Member States to take a strategic approach to the management of their coastal zones, based on, inter alia, recognition of the threat to coastal zones posed by climate change and the dangers entailed by the rise in sea level and the increasing frequency and violence of storms. The EU ICZM Recommendation lists eight principles on which coastal zone management should be based. These include integration across sectors and levels of governance, as well as a participatory and knowledge-based approach. Given the cross-border nature of many coastal processes, coordination and cooperation with neighbouring countries and in a regional sea context are also needed. The Commission's communication of June 2007 evaluates the progress towards integrated coastal zone management in Europe and identifies and promotes measures to remedy the deterioration and to improve the overall situation in Europe's coastal zones. This identified adaptation to climate change as a priority theme for further promotion of ICZM. A more coherent and integrated approach to coastal planning and management via integrated coastal zone management will assist adaptation efforts. The multi-disciplinary, interactive approach which underpins ICZM provides the flexible and multi-sectoral basis needed for developing effective adaptation measures. To support the implementation of ICZM, opportunities are offered especially through the EU's Cohesion Policy, Fisheries Fund and as part of the EU's Research Framework Programme. In order to ensure a coordinated and integrated approach to adaptation in coastal and marine areas, taking into account trans-boundary issues, the Commission will develop guidelines on adaptation in coastal and marine areas. 3.5 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, forestry 3.5.1 Land use and soil Concerning land the White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following30 Land use refers to the terrestrial natural and managed ecosystems systems and includes soil, vegetation, other biota and the ecological and hydrological processes in this system. Territorial and spatial dimensions are important. There are increasing pressures for land in Europe. Land is a limited resource and is currently sought by urbanisation, agriculture, bio-energy production, forestry, nature conservation, recreation and tourism, industry and infrastructure. Therefore, there are competing demands for land, which in some places in Europe is becoming scarcer. Land-use change is one of the relevant factors among the determinants of climate change and the relationship between the two is interdependent as changes in land-use may impact the climate whilst climatic change will also influence opportunities for future land-use. Climate Change aggravates land scarcity (need for food and biofuel production, need for natural areas, and water management, sea level rise, floods and land abandonment), and reduce choices and opportunities. In Europe, most of the land is privately owned, therefore there are many choices that are going to be made by the landowners as they realise the effects of climate change. Additionally the local authorities and regional authorities in charge of spatial planning will also 30 Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT 22 carry out a planned adaptation when they perceive the effects of changing patterns in rain fall and temperatures. One of the major roles of land use planning in the future will be to define best practice models for land use according to the soil characteristics and derived soil functions. The most obvious land use changes appear due to urbanization processes and the construction of transport infrastructure. Through this process, soil conservation and runoff and erosion processes may receive appropriate responses. It should be noted that the Commission put forward a Soil Thematic Strategy (COM(2006) 231) and a proposal for a Soil Framework Directive (COM(2006) 232)31 in 2006 with the objective to protect soils across the EU. The Strategy and the proposal have not yet been adopted by the Environment Council. Once adopted it could support the process of adaptation to climate change in relation to soils and land use. Table 3 - Potential planned adaptation options for Land use and Soil32 Type of action Description Share losses Support the rural economies of desertification affected and threatened regions to limit/avoid land abandonment by keeping agricultural production and soil management viable Repay damage caused by flooding (directly or through insurance) Mitigate the threat Reduce/avoid the loss of soil organic matter by adapting existing cultivation practices (e.g. ploughing in crop residues, using "green manuring") and supporting the use of soil improvers and organic fertilisers. Control erosion by choosing from a wide range of existing measures. Control organic matter decline due to increased erosion of peat by raising the ground water table. Control salinisation resulting from irrigation by optimizing irrigation techniques. Mitigating salinisation by changing to more halophytic crops Prevent effects Reduce/avoid the loss of soil organic matter by adapting existing cultivation practices (e.g. ploughing in crop residues, using "green manuring") and supporting the use of soil improvers and organic fertilisers. Preventing erosion by choosing from a wide range of existing measures. Preventing salinisation resulting from irrigation by optimizing irrigation techniques Preventing organic matter decline by adding (external) organic matter. Contribute to halting biodiversity loss by changing crops and by allowing species to move, enhancing the connectivity between nature conservation sites such as Natura 2000 Preventing organic matter decline by converting cropland into permanent grassland or forest Preventing organic matter decline due to increased erosion of peat by phasing out agricultural land use/dehydration and convert into natural areas Enhance connectivity at different scales allowing species to move and habitats to shift Avoid or limit soil sealing to keep soil functions intact to the extent possible, notably the water retention capacity Given that land is a limited natural resource, becoming increasingly scarce given the demands that are arising, the same principles which are applied to other scarce resources ought to be applied to land use: more rational use of the land, the need to recycle the land, the need to act on the increasing demand Relocate human activities in areas with a high flood risk, by moving those to higher ground Change land use. Change location of economic activities. Capacity Building Adapt to climate change by providing the population with information and education on changing conditions. 31 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/soil/three_en.htm Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT 32 23 3.5.2 Biodiversity (terrestrial ecosystems) The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following33. Ecosystems play a key role in regulating climate. Changes in ecosystem composition, and especially in ecosystem structure, in many cases have important implications for the interactions between the biosphere and the climate system, as well as for ecosystem services on which society depends including the provision of fresh water, food and medicine. Terrestrial and marine ecosystems currently absorb roughly half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is an important 'free' ecosystem service. However, growing evidence suggests that the capacity of the Earth's carbon sinks is weakening due to the continuous degradation of ecosystems. If the loss of biodiversity continues - or accelerates - the achievement of the climate change goals could be compromised. Urgent action now to halt the further loss and degradation of biodiversity will help to build resilience and maintain the provision of ecosystem services thus providing future options for reducing the impact of climate change. Ecosystem based adaptation is often the best and most cost-effective as it provides multiple services and promotes synergies. Europe has built up a vast network of over 26,000 protected areas covering all the Member States representing more than 20% of total EU territory. These sites, known as the Natura 2000 network is the largest network of protected areas in the world (set up under the EU nature directives including the Habitats Directive). The ecological coherence of the Natura 2000 network, as well as habitat quality, is essential for the long-term survival of many species and habitats. The impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystems present new challenges for nature conservation. Adaptation measures to maintain diversity and increase connectivity will be necessary to ensure the achievement of nature conservation objectives under changing climatic conditions. Coherence and interconnectivity in Europe involves the application of biodiversity climate change adaptation tools, such as flyways, buffer zones, corridors and stepping stones (connecting where appropriate neighbouring and third countries). At the same time, nature conservation contributes to increase resilience and maintain healthy ecosystems essential for any adaptation and mitigation strategy. Table 4 - Potential planned adaptation options for Biodiversity / Ecosystems34 Type of action Description Mitigate the threat Preserving an abundance of organisms (plants, animals, micro-organisms) and multiple groups performing similar functions is important for maintaining resilience. A diversified portfolio of "insurance" species provides back-up if some species decline. Crucially higher genetic and species diversity tends to make ecosystems more resistant and resilient to disturbance. This is because species are likely to be present with characteristics that will enable the ecosystem to adjust to change and to maintain the provision of critical services such as water purification. Biodiversity provides flexibility and insurance and spreads risks 33 Questions and Answers on the White Paper on climate change adaptation, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/09/145&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN &guiLanguage=en 34 Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT 24 Prevent effects Change land use. Capacity building across temporal and spatial scales. This is valid for both managed and unmanaged systems. Integrated agricultural systems with a diversity of crops and surrounding ecological zones can provide strong defences in the face of weather extremes, pest infestations and invasive species. Introduce a biodiversity/ecosystems compliance check in a reinforced spatial planning to increase flexibility of managed and natural systems to accommodate and adapt to climate change including by reducing other pressures on biodiversity/ecosystems arising from habitat conversion, over- harvesting, pollution and invasive alien species and by developing appropriate management and structure of the wider landscape and seascape. Strengthen nature conservation measures to conserve biodiversity/ecosystems in the future. Areas will have to be reserved for this purpose. Sufficiently large habitats must be provided to protect domestic and endemic species. Newly arrived ‘non-native’ species can help to maintain ecosystems, but they can also pose threats and need to be observed closely. Habitat mosaics should be created in landscapes where land management practice has led to the absence of sufficient suitable patches of unaltered or semi-natural habitat, thus ensuring permeability of the landscape and the required network connectivity. Connectivity may be achieved by establishing ecological linkages or by maintaining specific habitats to assist movement of species through an inhospitable environment. Maintain ecosystem function/services. For example, protecting upper-catchment forests and restoring wetlands can reduce the risks from climate-related floods and droughts, thereby protecting people's welfare and helping to minimise the loss of life, properties and other assets. These investments are likely to be highly cost-effective relative to structural alternatives such as dams and dykes. Also, preserve and restore floodplains, including reversion of arable land to flood meadows; promote climate-friendly agricultural use of peatlands and moorlands; and improve microclimate in urban areas by maintaining and increasing green spaces and freshair corridors. Investigate synergistic effects of climate change and other pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems. Investigate biodiversity/ecosystems underlying climate regulation services, in particular feedbacks that might work in our favour. Build awareness of the links between biodiversity/ecosystems and climate, and emphasise the large potential synergies when addressing biodiversity loss and climate change in an integrated manner. 3.5.3 Agriculture The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following35. Climate change is one of the main drivers that shape European agriculture and rural areas. Even if EU agriculture is technologically advanced, its capacity to produce food and to contribute to providing ecosystem services is directly dependent on climatic conditions. Although forecasts of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and prices are uncertain, an increase in extreme weather events is expected to trigger greater variability in agricultural production, food prices and farm income. The variability of crop yields has increased since the beginning of the century as a consequence of extreme climatic events, such as the drought and summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007. Europe's 2003 heat wave is estimated to have led to €10 billion in economic loses to farming, livestock and forestry from the combined effects of drought heat stress and fire. It must however be recognised that the ultimate impacts on farm income depend on many factors including the global market and policy support. Rural areas are exposed to a wide range of impacts from climatic variations, beyond those directly affecting agriculture. Forest ecosystems and forestry are important in many rural areas. 35 Questions and Answers on the White Paper on climate change adaptation, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/09/145&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN &guiLanguage=en 25 Climatic changes will lead to increased risk of disturbances through storms, fire, and outbreaks of pests and diseases with implications for forest growth and production. This will affect the economic viability of forestry, mainly in southern areas, and the capacity of forests to provide environmental services, including the carbon sink function. The European Commission has adopted a policy paper on the challenge of climate change for European agriculture and rural areas. The paper examines adaptation needs, and explores possible orientations within the agricultural sector for future action. Enhancing the sustainable use of natural resources such as water and soils, improving the adaptive capacity of farmers, facilitating co-operation between Member States, and enhancing climate and agricultural research are deemed as necessary early action. Its main purpose is to further involve Member States and the farming community in the debate on how the farm sector can overcome the challenges of climate change, and on how the Common Agricultural Policy can help. Currently agriculture is beginning to adapt autonomously. Actions include use of various water resources for areas that experience droughts or shortages (like water from tertiary treatment facilities, or abstraction of ground water independently of planned water harvesting. Changes to crops is also taking place by substituting mainly tree crops in the South EU or looking to more heat resistant less water-demanding crops and/or varieties. Change in irrigation practices that may lead to water conservation and avoidance of losses may also happen to the degree that the needed investments will be subsidised. The degree of autonomous adaptation is expected to be variable. A major driver will be the capacity building support for autonomous adaptation, planning support by the authorities and financial resources, while Southern Europe is expected to be engaged in much more serious adaptation efforts. Central European agriculture is expected to adapt mid-term to risks related to flood prevention. Agricultural insurance may help to cover extreme weather related risks, like fires, floods, droughts and storm/hale. The strategy for climate change responses in agriculture needs to be consistent with safeguarding food security, viability of rural areas and the provision of environmental services. The challenge for agriculture over the coming years is the need to meet the demand from increasing number of people – most of whom are in developing countries and will also suffer from worsened climatic conditions – while at the same time, conserving the local and global environment in the face of growing pressures associated with socio-economic development and climate change, that can exacerbate the current limited soil and water resources. 3.5.4 Forestry The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following36. Climate change will bring many and complex effects for forests in different bio-climatic regions of the EU. Possible future responses of forests to climate change include: Increased risk of biotic (pests and diseases) and abiotic (drought/storms/fires) disturbances to forests health. Increased frequency of extreme weather events (storms, floods and droughts) leading to high risk of fire erosion problems, and damages to stands. 36 Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT 26 The impacts of climate change are likely to vary greatly between regions. In the northwest of Europe, where water supplies are, typically, non-limiting, growth rates are likely to be enhanced by a combination of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, warmer winters and longer growing seasons, and increased nutrient availability as a result of atmospheric deposition and increased soil mineralisation. This contrasts with southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, where more frequent and severe summer droughts are likely to lead to reduced productivity, more extensive forest fires and, ultimately, to desertification in some areas. Species choice and the biodiversity associated with forests will also be affected. A changing climate is also likely to mean that the levels of damage caused by existing forest pathogens and pests changes, while new pests and pathogens, whether introduced by mankind from other parts of the world or moving through Europe as climate change progresses, have the capacity to cause serious damage to both protection and production forests. In southern Europe, the principal carbon stocks are in forest biomass, while in many boreal forests, the soils contain significantly more carbon than tree biomass. In both cases, these carbon stocks are vulnerable to the direct (and indirect) effects of climate change (lowering of water table, retreat of permafrost and forest fires, desertification, respectively). Adaptation of management practices should be considered to help protect these carbon stores, thus contributing to climate change mitigation. Forestry is a sector with long life-times: stands established now should be able to withstand the next 50-100 years. Estimates from a JRC study forecast that according to a typical +4° scenario, the ecological conditions where a given tree species now grows will shift somewhere between 500 and 1000 km north by 2100, though this does not mean that forests will be able to make these shift. For forestry, autonomous (or partially autonomous) actions have been identified. They focus on forestry/environmental measures that will achieve social, economic and environmental outcomes. Specific social and economic measures are not considered outside of those principles incorporated within Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE) and standards for sustainable forest management: Facilitate natural regeneration and forest growth in northern regions or high elevation areas Increase diversity in forest (at genetic, species, age, stand and landscape levels). Favour more resilient species. Enlarge woodlands and utilise topographical and edaphic heterogeneity in the landscape. Adapt management systems. Forest management has developed over time to accommodate extreme climatic events including wildfires and storms. Landscape approach to adaptation. The ecosystem services provided by forests can contribute to adaptation at the landscape level through the creation of habitat networks (aiding species migration and adaptation of biodiversity), flood alleviation and large-scale erosion protection. Maintain and enhance forest monitoring. 27 3.6 Health The White Paper on climate change adaptation mentions the following37. Climate change can have significant effects on the health of humans, animals and plants. Increased temperatures and extreme heat can lead to a rise in mortality. In EU countries, mortality is estimated to increase by 1-4% for each one-degree rise in temperature, meaning that heat related mortality could rise by 30 000 deaths per year by the 2030s and 50 000 to 110 000 deaths per year by the 2080s (PESETA project). In addition, temperature sensitive infectious diseases such as vector-borne (transmitted infections by e.g. ticks or mosquitoes) diseases could increase. Changing frequency and intensity of precipitation and temperature may result in outbreaks of water-related issues such as contaminated drinking water or water used for recreation purposes. A warmer climate may also have important effects on air quality in Europe, in terms of concentrations and dispersion of air pollutants. Allergic disorders may be worsened by changed and prolonged pollen seasonality. Climate change has also contributed to an increase in ozone concentration in central and southwestern Europe. Animal health will also be affected. Vector transmitted diseases such as Bluetongue and West Nile Fever are influenced by changes in climate. Wildlife is very susceptible to climatic and environmental changes and plays an important role in animal disease transmission such as avian influenza and rabies. Alterations in wildlife ecology may influence the occurrence of animal diseases that are currently confined to specific territories or natural "niches". Some of these diseases are subject to EU and international veterinary legislation and can endanger the country's official animal health status. Changes to the animals' living conditions can also lead to nutritional disorders, parasitic diseases, sun stroke and dehydration which affect animal health and well being and thus the economic situation of farmers. Climate change could affect cropping systems, plant breeding and natural vegetation such as forests and woodland. It is also likely to affect both the incidence and severity of plant diseases. The European Commission has adopted a policy paper on the impacts of climate change on Human, Animal and Plant Health38. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has recently launched, with the aid of external consultants, the E3 Network which will help it to model and map the various types of risks of infectious diseases. ECDC also has several other projects in the field of climate change and the spread of communicable diseases39. Furthermore WHO is advocating for policy makers to protect people's health from the health hazards associated with climate change. At global level, the World Health Assembly calls for protecting health from climate change. At European level, a number of policy meetings held in 2007-2008 within the European Environment and Health process also recognized the need for action in this field. European policy makers from the health and environment sector agreed to 37 Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT 38 Commission policy paper on the impacts of climate change on Human, Animal and Plant Health http://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_threats/climate/climate_en.htm 39 http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/Health_topics/Climate_change/special_report/special_report.aspx 28 develop a Regional framework for action. This framework, which is being shaped in a series of meetings, will inform the 2010 Fifth Ministerial Conference on environment and health, where climate change will be one of the main topics on the agenda40. Table 5 - Potential planned adaptation options for Health41 Type of action Description Mitigate the threat Revised air and water quality controls e.g. tighter controls on emissions leading to ozone formation. Increased frequency of microbiological testing of foods and other measures to mitigate the risk of food poisoning. Development of heat health action plans (heat-wave early warning and public health response), the strengthening of emergency medical services, improvement of climate-sensitive disease surveillance, and actions to increase accessibility to key determinants of health, such as clean water, energy and sanitation. Much adaptation can be achieved in the context of pursuing wider development objectives e.g. improved health and education services. The maintaining/strengthening of public health infrastructure is often as the “most important cost-effective and urgently needed” adaptation strategy. This includes the reinforcement of public health policies that recognise climate risk, public health training, more effective surveillance and emergency response systems, and sustainable prevention and control programs. Education of public and health professionals. As vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by other stresses, including lack of preparedness or high burden of disease, it is important to include risks from climate into public health policies, thus strengthening health services' preparedness and enhancing international cooperation. Prevent effects Change land use. Change location activities Capacity building Greening urban areas, green roofs of economic It is advisable for critical activities for public health (water treatment works; energy supply; hospitals) to be based in locations at less risk from extreme weather events. The main determinants of a community’s adaptive capacity are: economic wealth, technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions, and equity. Adaptive capacity is also a function of current population health status and pre-existing disease burdens. So far, little research has been conducted on estimating the cost of the current climate sensitive disease burden, or of health-specific adaptation strategies. Research and sharing and implementation of best practice in building design to minimise excess temperatures within buildings. Monitor changes in vector-borne disease distribution. Research on physical and mental stressors in old age (links the aging population and climate change). 40 http://www.euro.who.int/globalchange/country/20090112_2 Impact assessment on the White Paper on adapting to climate change (April 2009), http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009SC0387:EN:NOT 41 29 4. Key climate change information needs 4.1 Global The IPCC’s periodic assessments of the state of understanding of causes, impacts, vulnerabilities and possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive and widely-agreed surveys available on these subjects. In 2007 IPCC finalised its 4th Assessment Report (AR4 - "Climate Change 2007"42). The EU helps driving forward the climate science which forms the basis of IPCC reports, e.g. by the research activities funded under the various research Framework Programmes. The EU is funding research on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. Even though the main focus is on Europe, a considerable amount of EC-funded research activities address key scientific questions in vulnerable ecosystems/regions outside Europe.43 The main climate change research priorities and knowledge gaps have been assessed by the European Commission44. A selection of relevant topics mentioned in the Commission’s analysis follows: There is an increasing need for more accurate regional climate change information to improve the analysis of impacts and contribute to adaptation policy needs. Consistency between models in simulated regional temperature and precipitation needs to be improved. High resolution global and regional models, seamless prediction to increase model reliability, and probabilistic prediction based on large ensembles of simulations are necessary in order to quantify uncertainties due to model differences and improve our understanding of climate change variability and its impacts at regional level. Development of Earth System Models (ESMs) and increased understanding of coupled system processes and associated feedbacks remain key challenges. Advancing our understanding of coupled system processes and associated feedbacks, and inclusion of new processes call for increases in spatial and temporal model resolution. There is a need to strengthen climate observations and maintain long term records in order to be able to study and understand key processes and associated feedbacks and analyse extreme events. Essential aspects include: maintenance and digitization of existing long term records, better data recovery and homogeneity of records, better measurements of the slow components of the climate system (oceans, land), better measurements of hydrological cycle variables, integration of products in climate information services tailored to the users needs. There is a need for a dedicated computing infrastructure to meet current and emerging research needs. Reliable global and regional climate change predictions cannot be achieved without substantial increases in computing resources. These are needed so long-term simulations can incorporate important climate features, bio-chemical and physical processes and regional details and perform more extensive ensemble runs. Improve our understanding of the sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon and other greenhouse gases (e.g. methane, nitrous oxide) through integrated, multiple-constraint 42 http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.cfm?pg=climate 44 Integrated climate change research following the release of the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and most recent research developments, 18.12.2008, SEC(2008) 3104 final http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/pdf/commission_working_doc.pdf 43 30 regional observations combined with satellite observations, in order to quantify responses in terrestrial ecosystems including hot spot regions (e.g. Siberia, Congo basin, Amazon), and achieve early detection of unforeseen events. Sustain long-term observations of ocean carbon fluxes, starting from the North Atlantic observing system which has been built-up. Determine how realistic model simulations are and proceed with a systematic calibration of ocean carbon models and coupled Earth Systems Models with respect to observations. Study new processes on ocean vulnerability such as sub-sea permafrost melting in the Arctic, growing hypoxia in the oceans, ocean acidification, ocean methane and nitrogen cycle, and look out for surprises in the system. Understand better the links between the Arctic Ocean and the climate system through better representation of ice dynamics, thermohaline circulation and sea ice. Future evolution of the Greenland and also the Antarctic ice sheet mass needs to be better quantified as it influences heavily (together with heat penetration into the oceans) sea level rise projections. Furthermore the need was mentioned for more knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in many areas and sectors. This includes: impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and forestry in particular in mountain regions; impacts on human health; impacts on hydrology; impacts on extreme events; impacts on the economy; impacts of climate change in vulnerable world regions; impact and cost/benefit assessment for adaptation responses; comprehensive analysis of presently developed/adopted adaptation strategies of EU Member States; quantification of the relative costs of adaptation; urban adaptation; future role of the financial flows in the insurance sector and weather related insurance schemes; damage and repair costs of extreme weather events; coastal protection). Regarding mitigation e.g. the development of low emission scenarios using both bottom-up and top down approaches, which would able to attain the 2ºC objective set by the EU, was mentioned. The above shows that there is a high need for enhanced knowledge on many aspects of climate change. Some of these topics are moving from a research area into a more operational area and thus could be relevant for a possible future GMES climate contribution. 4.2 European mitigation As mentioned in section 3.1 there are a number of EU policies in place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (EU climate change and energy package with targets for 2020). Furthermore EU policy on air quality is in place and also being developed, in particular the revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive. For the further development of both climate change mitigation and air quality/air emission reduction policies information on climate change is relevant. Climate change and conventional air pollution are linked primarily because both result from burning fossil fuels. A changing climate can have an influence on air pollution through changes in meteorological conditions and can e.g. lead to an increase in ozone over the continents, hence working against air pollution control policies. Furthermore air pollutant emissions can be reduced by increasing the share of low carbon energy sources in both energy supply and demand. Thus integration of the two topics can be useful in air quality and regional climate change modelling as well as in models assessing costs of measures and benefits (e.g. reduced exposure of air pollution to humans and ecosystems). 31 These topics are dealt with through various EU and national research programmes and some might be relevant for a possible future GMES climate contribution. Some of the information needs related to climate change mitigation (e.g. regarding emission reductions from land use change and forestry) are already provided through existing GMES services. To what extent these existing or future GMES services can further support climate change mitigation has not been assessed in this paper. This paper focuses primarily on information needs in the area of climate change adaptation that could be covered by a GMES climate change contribution. 4.3 European adaptation The report Impacts of Europe's changing climate - 2008 indicator-based assessment”45 presents past and projected (impacts of) climate change regarding atmosphere and climate, cryosphere, marine biodiversity and ecosystems, water quantity (including river floods and droughts), freshwater quality and biodiversity, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, soil, agriculture and forestry, human health. The report is a joined effort of the European Environment Agency (EEA), the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC-IES) and the World Health Organisation Europe (WHO). It includes data and indicators from the IPCC 4th assessment report46 and many EU research projects47. As such it gives a comprehensive overview on data requirements across the different environmental and human sectors and is therefore used to describe these needs using the different story-lines of the report. It should be noted that data and scientific knowledge on climate change and its impacts increase rapidly, see e.g. the latest information presented at the International Scientific Congress on climate change under the heading "Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions" (10-12 March 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark).48 The report shows the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and exchange and reducing uncertainties in projections, to improve climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Especially in the key environmental areas of freshwater, marine and terrestrial biodiversity/ecosystems and land use/soil, there is a need for long-term data series to allow for trend analysis and extreme value analysis as well as a need for a higher spatial resolution. Below a summary is provided on the main data issues for the various relevant Earth system components (based on the abovementioned report and various other information sources). 4.4 Atmosphere and climate Atmospheric routine measurements (e.g. temperature and precipitation) have taken place for many decades. Data availability is in general therefore relatively good compared with other indicators, although it also differs among the climate indicators and among regions. At the global level, major gaps in coverage are identified mainly for Africa, the oceans and the polar regions. 45 EEA Report No 4/2008, http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4 http://www.ipcc.ch/ 47 see European Commission DG RTD, http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.cfm?pg=climate 48 http://climatecongress.ku.dk/ 46 32 For Europe data is available through the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D49) project, the UK Climatic Research Unit (CRU50), and the EU research project ENSEMBLES51. However also for Europe there is still lack of data for regional and local assessments at the appropriate spatial resolution and quality. The spatial resolution of the interpolated gridded data at European or global level is often at about 1ºx1° resolution which is quite coarse compared to the higher resolution needed at national and River Basin District (RBD) scale (ca 0,1° x 0,1° and less). More detailed and quantitative, tailor-made information is especially needed for regional climate impact assessments and the development of cost-effective adaptation strategies. However, great care needs to be taken to avoid overextending the spatial and temporal resolution of the information beyond statistical and analytical credibility as this will lead to a false sense of reliability amongst users. Instead information from regional and sub-regional models should be published with the uncertainties underlying them and the caveats for their use clearly embedded with them. Climate reanalysis at global and regional level is a tool to create data sets from land and oceans (surface to the upper layers of atmosphere) for periods up to 50 years and can thus improve study of climate and climate variability. The latest available European reanalysis data are part of the Global Atmospheric Reanalysis ERA-40, carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)52. For adaptation particularly, information on extreme events is most important, but changes in storms and storm surges in relation to climate change are still uncertain since time-series of observed data are too short to understand the contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. Sufficient data for better analysis of changes in the frequency and intensity of other extreme events like heat waves and heavy rain falls are still lacking, in parts of Europe and in terms of the length of the observed time-series. 4.5 Cryosphere Ice and snow cover have been monitored locally for at least a century, the last decades also from space. Measuring techniques and coverage have gradually improved. Particularly important are changes in mass balances of ice-sheets and glaciers which are the key information for assessing water availability and changes in sea level. Changes in the extent and duration of snow-cover and sea-ice are also important due to the feedback mechanisms in the global climate system created by their change (albedo effect). Data on snow cover and Arctic sea ice have been measured globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Data are available e.g. at the Global Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) (Boulder, USA53). The World Glacier Monitoring Service (Zürich, Switzerland) collects long term data (e.g. for some glaciers since 1894) globally including European glaciers54. The evidence for changes is robust for the selected mountain glaciers that are monitored intensively. But the majority of glaciers are still not monitored intensively, and especially for the Greenland ice sheet, uncertainty in changes in mass-balances is still high. Sensors in satellites have gradually improved and hence area-wide data on the Greenland ice-sheet are not available for longer than about 15 years. There is more and more evidence that melting rates for the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice are accelerating rapidly, with an unknown risk of reaching tipping points. Monitoring and research activities in Greenland have only recently been stepped up, and in time understanding may improve. Melting of 49 http://eca.knmi.nl/ http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ 51 http://www.ensembles-eu.org/ 52 http://www.ecmwf.int 53 http://nsidc.org/ 54 http://wgms.ch 50 33 permafrost has been observed, but data and knowledge for quantitative assessments are still rather poor due to too short time-series (about 10-15 years). 4.6 Freshwater 4.6.1 Water quality and quantity The data and information needed for environmental assessments of Europe’s waters are generated via national and river basin monitoring networks set up for national (hydrological services, water statistics etc.) or EU level purposes, in particular the Water Framework Directive monitoring activities (and the related Water Information System for Europe, WISE)55. However the current data and information flows from country to European level are for the moment not optimal and European indicators and assessments are not always based on the information and knowledge available/accumulated at national and regional level. Water management related to freshwater can be divided into the following groups including the main European/EU water policies (Directives/initiatives) in parenthesis56. River basin management. good ecological status and good groundwater status ‘ (Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Directive) Water scarcity and drought (WS&D) (Green paper on WS&D) Water pollution, water quality and emissions (Nitrate Directive, Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive, IPPC Directive/E-PRTR, Chemicals and priority substances) Water and health (Drinking water Directive and Bathing water directive) Flood risk management (Floods Directive) Climate change impacts and adaptation (Green and white paper on climate and adaptation) Hydropower, (Energy policies with focus on more renewable sources) Below the need of climate observation to support freshwater assessment, management and water policies is tentatively evaluated based on the set of (WMO) Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). Freshwater relevant ECVs are: Air temperature; precipitation; snow cover, glaciers and ice gap, river discharge, groundwater, lake levels, and water use. EEA has added some extra freshwater relevant climate variables (Other Climate Variables (OCVs)): Water temperature; river and lake ice cover; evaporation (actual); drought episodes (meteorological and hydrological); water balance/water availability; floods; low flow episodes; and groundwater level. For each of the main above ECV groups related to water management and policy assessment the relevance of ECVs and Other Climate Variables (OCVs) is indicated in the table below as: *** very important; ** important and * relevant supplementary information. The most important freshwater climate variables are also described in more detail below57. 55 56 http://water.europa.eu/ See; http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/index_en.htm 34 Table 6 - Selected Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and Other Climate Variables (OCVs) and their relevance for freshwater assessments on policies and water management. Air temperature - lake, river and groundwater temperature 1) - river and lake ice-cover 2) Precipitation - evaporation (actual) 3) - drought episodes 4) (meteorological and hydrological) - water balance/water availability Snow cover 5) Glaciers and ice caps 6) River discharge - floods - low flow episodes Ground water 7) Groundwater level Lake levels (including storage in reservoirs) Water use (water demand) 8) Flood risks Water and health, drinking water quality bathing water Water pollution, water quality, emissions Water scarcity and drought Water Framework Directive River basin management Ecological status Groundwater Directive Note: *** very important; ** important and * relevant supplementary information. Fields are blank when it is unclear what exactly the ECV is or when it is not clear whether the variable is used for fulfilling requirements of a specific Directive or Policy. Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and Other Climate Variables (OCVs)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** *** *** *** ** *** *** ** * *** ** ** ** ** ** * ** ** * * ** * *** *** *** * ** *** *** *** ** *** * ** * *** ** * ** * *** * * * * * ** ** *** Notes and remarks: * Other climate variables (OCVs): proposed by EEA 1) Higher water temperatures, particularly in standing waters and low-flow situations in rivers, will bring about changes in the physico-chemical condition of water bodies with subsequent impacts on biological conditions. This may have severe consequences for ecosystem structure and function as well as for water use and ecosystem services. 2) Change in temperatures will affect the duration of ice cover, the freezing and thawing dates and the thickness of the ice cover and in turn affect the ecological condition in lakes and river. 3) Evaporation (actual) is together with precipitation the main component of the water balance and estimates of available water resource. 4) Droughts represent temporary decrease of the average water availability, refer to important deviations from the average levels of natural water availability and are considered natural phenomena, while water scarcity is defined as a situation where insufficient water resources are available to satisfy long-term average requirements. It refers to 57 Regarding ECVs see the GTOS submission to UNFCCC SBSTA 29, December 2008: Terrestrial framework mechanisms and assessment of available standards and guides to terrestrial ECVs, GTOS-69 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/sbsta/eng/misc12.pdf 35 long-term water imbalances, where the availability is low compared to the demand for water, and means that water demand exceeds the water resources exploitable under sustainable conditions 5) (from WHO ECVs) Snow cover extent (km2) and duration, snow depth (cm), 6) (from WHO ECVs) Glacier/ice cap inventory and mass balance (kg m-2 yr-1), glacier length (m), ice sheet mass balance (kg m-2 yr-1) and extent (km2), 7) (from WHO ECVs) Ground water extraction rates (m3 yr-1) and location 8) The ECV in WMOs table is water use but in EEAs opinion that water demand is a better vaeiable. Lake, river and groundwater temperature Temperature is a major control of biological, hydro-chemical and hydro-physical processes in water bodies, for instance growth rate and distribution of organisms and for vertical stratification of lakes which impacts distribution of nutrients and oxygen. Water temperature has a strong natural seasonal fluctuation but is also impacted by human perturbations such as deforestation, flow regulation, cooling water from thermal power plants and by climate change. Thermal conditions in surface waters are of socio-economical importance, for instance for tourism, shipping, fisheries and water supply. Availability of long term water temperature records in Europe is limited. For some records, methods for trend detection are not adequate. Additionally, the regional distribution of the documented trends is not well-balanced – some countries have excellent long term records at a considerable number of sites while other countries have only one site. Currently there is no global or European data centre on trends in inland water temperature. EEA compiled for its 2008 climate impacts report a first set of long term inland water temperature and used it as an indicator58. There are however many national activities and research activities that may be a basis for establishing a European overview of trends in water temperature (e.g. Finland; UK; DK etc.) River and lake ice cover Freezing of lakes and rivers is directly connected to weather conditions, especially to air temperature. The existence of ice cover has important effects on the stream-flow regime as well as on the heat transfer between water bodies and the overlying atmosphere. Numerous studies suggest the importance of long-term changes in average ice-on and ice-off dates of northern and Alpine lakes and rivers as a sensitive indicator for climate variability and change. Analysis of trends in northern hemisphere lake and river ice records over a 150-year period (1846-1995) showed clear trends. Ice break-up in spring occurs on average nine days earlier. Autumn freezeup occurs ten days later. More than 350 years observation of the Tornio River in Finland also shows a clear trend for the past decades. Lake and river ice phenomena are monitored by hydro-meteorological services, environment agencies and some limnological research institutes on a national level. The Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Data base59 contains records for more than 750 sites. In addition several national inventories (Finland, Sweden, Switzerland and UK), and results from European research projects REFLECT, CLIME60, EUROLIMPACS61, and MOLAR62 have more specific European information. JRC and EEA compiled for its 2008 climate impacts report an indicator on trend in European river and lake ice cover63. 58 Water temperatures in four selected European rivers and lakes in the 20th century available at http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=3728 59 http://nsidc.org/data/g01377.html 60 Climate and Lake Impacts in Europe, http://clime.tkk.fi/ 61 Evaluating the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems, http://www.eurolimpacs.ucl.ac.uk/ 62 Mountain Lake Research, http://www.mountain-lakes.org/molar/ 63 http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=3730 36 River discharge64 Traditionally long-term river discharge measurements are the essential information source for water resource management, including water management plans; drought management plans; flood protection, irrigation and drainage schemes, international water allocation agreements, and ecosystem management. Discharge is measured on a routine basis at many river locations in Europe. The gauging stations are generally well distributed over each country to form a basis for water resources assessment and floods risk warnings. Some of this data is available from international databases, and several countries offer Web based services allowing data downloading under different procedures from fully open to semi-restricted and possibly pay-for services. The Global Runoff Data Centre65 (GRDC) operates under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with the support of the Federal Republic of Germany within the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG). It is a digital world-wide repository of discharge data and associated metadata. Of European relevance is the European Water Archive (EWA, in support of FRIEND of UNESCO-International Hydrological Programme). The database covers 141,000 station-years of gauged daily flow data for over 5000 gauging stations in 30 European countries. Data is supplied to the archive on a voluntary basis, free of charge, and made freely available to FRIEND researchers on condition that these data are used exclusively for FRIEND research. Some countries are poorly covered (e.g. Greece with 2 stations) and the records are not kept up to date. GRDC also runs the European Terrestrial Network for River Discharge (ETN-R, in support of European Flood Alert System EFAC maintained by JRC66. Many countries have online systems providing observations on river (and lake) water level and river flow. Due to different national data policies, technical, political or administrative obstacles the amount of discharge data captured in the GRDC is only a fraction of the total available discharge data and in many cases outdated. Floods (and other natural disasters) There are different types of floods, each with its characteristic properties, such as river floods, flash floods, ice-jam or snow melt induced floods and coastal floods due to sea level rise. The number of ‘reported’ flood disasters has increased considerably over the last decades. This increase is due to several factors such as better reporting (increased media coverage), socioeconomic factors (increase in population and wealth in flood-prone areas) and land-use changes (urbanisation, deforestation, loss of wetlands and natural floodplain storage via dyke construction, river straightening and floodplain sedimentation). In Europe there are various registers of flood events and the impact of floods. The main data sources are: Emergency Disasters Database (EM-DAT) maintained since 1988 by CRED 67 provides data on disasters and their human and economic impact, by country and type of disaster, at the 64 GTOS-56 draft assessment ECV 01: River Discharge: assessment report on available methodological standards and guides, http://www.fao.org/gtos/ECV-T01.html 65 http://grdc.bafg.de/servlet/is/Entry.987.Display/ 66 European Flood Alert System EFAS, http://efas.jrc.it/ 67 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium http://www.emdat.be/ 37 global level. CRED is a World Health Organization collaborating centre based in Brussels. EM-DAT includes all disasters from 1900 until present. Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO)68 detects, maps, and measures major flood events worldwide using satellite remote sensing. JRC, map and catalogue of the major flood events of the last 56 years in the EU69 Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE70, a global database on natural catastrophes since 1950 in which every year between 800 and 1,000 loss events are recorded and analysed. However these historic data on natural disasters, including e.g. flood losses and casualties, are neither comprehensive nor standardised, thus making long-term analyses at European level currently very difficult. Water scarcity and droughts, water availability, water use and demand Water quantity and water resources information has traditionally been an important water aspect in EEA State of the Environment and indicator-based reports. Water scarcity and drought events are recognised as a major hazard throughout Europe, and have created large damages to natural vegetation, agriculture, and society. Changes in the frequency and persistency of droughts seriously affect water availability, ecosystems, agriculture, navigation, energy production, tourism and other socio-economic sectors. On European scale there is only limited information on the extent and impacts of water scarcity and drought events. Based on Member States questionnaire a first overview of the extent and impact of water scarcity and drought in Europe was produced in 200771. Based on the assessment the Commission adopted a Communication: Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union72 on 18 July 2007. The informal council of Environment Ministers discussed water scarcity and drought end August 2007. The assessment confirmed by the council conclusions noted high data gaps and data uncertainty in estimating water availability, and water abstraction. Much of the current information used to provide European overviews on water abstraction and water use has been collected from countries by the joint Eurostat-OECD questionnaire on environmental data. Although many countries have good monitoring and assessments of water resources, water scarcity and droughts, currently the latest available data at European level are for most of the countries often more than five years old. For some countries data may even be more than 10 years old. To be more policy relevant we need to improve the timeliness of European data. In cooperation with Member States, the European Environment Agency (EEA) contributes to the identification of relevant water scarcity and drought indicators. An initial set of parameters is currently being developed. From 2009-2010, the collection of data at national and river basin 68 http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/ Barredo, J.I. (2007) Major Flood Disasters in Europe: 1950-2005. Natural Hazards, 42, 125-148. www 70 http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/natcatservice/default.aspx 71 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/quantity/scarcity_en.htm 72 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council - Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union {SEC(2007) 993} Available at http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52007DC0414:EN:NOT 69 38 level based on these parameters will make it possible to issue an annual European assessment of how the extent and impacts of water scarcity and droughts are evolving across Europe. The Commission's Joint Research Centre is developing an observatory and early warning system on droughts. This will serve as a platform for forecasting, detection and monitoring and for exchange of information. It adopts a multi-scale approach, is in line with the subsidiary principle and will provide consistent information at European level. The first prototype is currently undergoing extensive testing73. A number of on-going projects within EU research programmes deliver further information in the field of water scarcity and droughts, such as e.g. AQUASTRESS74 and RECLAIM WATER75. Up to now European data collections have only national data on water availability and water abstractions. However, data at national level may not be relevant or sufficient for some countries, as water scarcity may take place in some river basins with a great impact without occurring in other river basins. A focus at River Basin District (RBD) level appears necessary in order to duly reflect local and regional vulnerability (or to identify water stressed regions) and the sectors concerned and take appropriate actions in order to limit the causes of water scarcity situations. In some regions of Europe (mainly southern Europe) temporal variability in precipitation within the year frequently leads to serious problems of water scarcity, during the dry season (often several months). In the dry season the amount of precipitation is often less than a quarter of the annual average and together with high evaporation this result in very low water availability. This phenomenon is exacerbated by seasonally high abstraction rates (e.g. irrigation by agriculture in the dry season and increased summer tourism. Therefore indicators and data sets defined on an annual basis are clearly inefficient to demonstrate the problem of water scarcity. Conclusions freshwater The quality of European water data collections and assessments are affected by the following issues: Problems with timeliness of the data available at European level Current data flows are only covering a part of the information needed for European assessments (country aggregated averages only on an annual time scale). More results and analyses at national and River Basin level are available but currently not included in European data sets There is a lack of harmonization in estimation and quality assurance methodologies. For the freshwater area there is a need for better data on past trends in precipitation, river flow, water storage in form of snow and ice and water temperature. Better spatial and temporal resolution of data needed for establishing water balance are a prerequisite for improving assessment of water scarcity and drought. In the future climate change will affect water availability including seasonality in dry and wet periods and better data are needed as a basis for future water management. 73 http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/php/index.php?action=view&id=2 http://www.aquastress.net/ 75 http://www.reclaim-water.org/ 74 39 4.6.2 Water accounts Under the Water Framework Directive a River Basin District / sub-units assessment of water availability is proposed that would report on indicators of the status and trends in the hydrometeorological parameters and the hydrological freshwater resources budget. The proposed monthly time step, where data are available, will allow distinguishing seasonal patterns and assessing dry periods within a hydrological year, as well as investigating additional indices such as the “Dry season flow index, WRI” which requires data from the dry season. It will also allow the EEA to produce water accounts (data needs: calculable catchment, rainfall data, discharge data, reservoir data, abstraction and return flow data). Some additional data will be collected on water storage volume (for the natural or manmade reservoirs in the RBD / sub-unit, groundwater and snow pack). These will allow for comprehensive and integrated analyses of the water resources’ availability trends over long-term and deeper assessment of water scarcity issues. Table 7 – Proposed data collection under WFD on water resources76 Source: Working Group D – Reporting Activity on State of the Environment Reporting, Guidance on “Reporting required for assessing the state of, and trends in, the water environment at the European level”, EEA, February 2009 76 40 4.7 Marine biodiversity and ecosystems At the core of any assessment of the marine environment is to quantify and identify the current state of, and impacts on it - how these are changing in time, and whether the policies/measures taken at different levels are effective. Climate variables are important in this context because they highlight the changes that have been observed in the ocean, in some cases over a 130 year period. The most widely used climate variables used to describe changes in the marine environment are sea surface temperature, sea level rise, pCO2, sea ice coverage, and changes in plankton distributions. The time series of these variables are usually compiled based on historical in-situ observations, and when possible, enhanced by more recent satellite observations. In the table below Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and Other Climate Variables (OCVs) that are relevant for assessing and reporting impacts of climate change in the main categories of transitional, coastal and marine water policies are tentatively evaluated. These variables are not strictly demanded by legislation, but are none the less “essential” for assessing climate change impacts. In particular when they are combined with systematically sampled biological information, very powerful assessments can be made. This combined information is unfortunately not always available at the present. Table 8 - Selected Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) for the marine environment and Other Climate Variables (OCVs) and their relevance for marine environment assessments. Note: *** very important; ** important and * relevant supplementary information. Fields are blank when it is unclear what exactly the ECV is or when it is not clear whether the variable is used for fulfilling requirements of a specific Directive or Policy. 41 Sea Surface and subsurface temperature Sea level PCO2 Sea surface and subsurface salinity Sea State Sea Ice Surface and subsurface Currents Ocean Color Subsurface Nutrient concentrations Subsurface carbon Subsurface tracers Subsurface phytoplankton Species biomass, composition and geographical distribution of plankton Structure of fish popuplations including the abundance, geographical distribution and age/size structure of populations Species composition, biomass, and annual/seasonal variability of submerged aquatic vegetation and benthic invertebrates Water column density structure Time series of heat and density fluxes in relevant cross-sections Common Fisheries Policy Water Framework Directive (Coastal and Transitional waters) River basin management Ecological status Marine Strategy framework Directive (Marine waters to the EEZ zone) Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** ? *** *** *** ? *** *** *** ? *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** ** ** ** ** Some relevant freshwater climate variables are also described in more detail below. Sea level rise and sea surface temperature Observations of both sea-level change77 and sea surface temperature78 are made using a network of ground-based stations and by satellites. The land based observations of sea level are less accurate and are affected by vertical movements of the earths crust (isostatic rebound), and cover only few points in space. Observations of sea surface temperature are made in a network of ocean 77 See e.g. the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), hosted at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), UK. http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/ 78 See e.g. Hadley centre, http://www.hadobs.org/ 42 based stations, and similarly have low spatial resolution, but both parameters have been measured for more than a century. The satellite observations of both sea surface elevation and sea surface temperature are more accurate and are temporally and spatially comprehensive, but have only been made for a relatively short period. By combining the two types of measurements, accurate time series of historical changes in mean sea level and sea surface temperature have been compiled. Projections of both sea-level change and sea surface temperature are, however, highly uncertain because some of the most important physical processes involved are poorly understood. In the case of sea-level change the processes include the internal ice-dynamics of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, changes in the thermal structure of the oceans, and changes in the vertical movement of land. Sea surface temperature is affected by changes in ocean heat content and large-scale ocean circulation, and the physical processes are poorly understood. Marine biological environment In the marine biological environment, observations have been made that indicate that marine organisms are changing their seasonality and southerly species are moving northward which in some cases can have serious ramifications for the entire marine foodweb. The studies that have been done at the planktonic level (the bottom of the marine food web) are primarily made by the Sir Alistair Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science using the Continuous Plankton Recorder79. These observations are the only ones that have been made for a long enough time- period (observations were started in 1958) and that cover a sufficiently large area (the North East Atlantic and North Sea) to document that large-scale changes are occurring. The bottom of the marine foodweb will also be first to be impacted by changes in ocean acidification; however the rate at which oceans will become acidified is uncertain. Satellite observation of ocean colour is a promising new monitoring technology, but can not yet show large scale changes in chlorophyll concentrations because time series availability is currently too short (10 years). There is also a shortage of ground observations available to interpret the causes of changes observed from space. Observations have been made of some species of fish moving northward, but analysing community changes is an area of emerging research. Because both the changes in the physical oceanographic environment and marine biological response to the physical changes are poorly understood, it is not possible to make projections for changes in marine biodiversity and ecosystems. Conclusions marine biodiversity and ecosystems The relevance of variables shown in Table 8 reflect that the Directives and Policies in place for protecting different parts of the transitional, coastal and marine environment are targeted at protecting the environment against traditional environmental pressures rather than climate change. This is because these pressures are usually the largest, but climate change has an important add on effect of exacerbating the consequences of those pressures and is thus highly relevant to consider. Most plants and animals that live in the sea respond to changes in the physical/chemical environment that surrounds them and for this reason it is highly relevant to monitor those changes. However, that response is in most cases poorly understood and for this reason it is important to also consider the changes in the impacted biological communities. The Water Framework Directive, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and the Common Fisheries Policy already have extensive requirements in place to monitor different aspects of biological communities and this information can be used, also in the context of understanding climate change, but in return there is also a need to develop acceptance of the wider and more 79 Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, http://www.sahfos.ac.uk/ 43 systematic use of the climate variables listed above in the context of existing Directives and Policies. From a management point of view it is also highly relevant to obtain an integrated understanding of how climate affects the physical environment in entire sea basins, such as the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, as well as projections of how this might change in the future. Some of this work has already been done in the Baltic Sea where projections have suggested that increased precipitation in the region may change the vertical density structure of the sea (with consequences for the life cycles of plants and animals in the sea) and work is ongoing to try to improve the understanding of the processes that drive renewal of water in the deeper layers of the sea. While the specific climate variables may show a trend in a certain direction, they do not in themselves provide the integrated understanding that is also needed. 4.8 Land, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture 4.8.1 Soil Climate is a key factor of soil development that controls the main soil-forming processes and directly or indirectly affects major soil threats in the EU. Wind soil erosion is triggered mainly by wind speed combined with droughts. Changes in heavy rainfalls and the loss of vegetation cover increase the risk of water erosion. However, the amounts of soil material removed by the erosion are quantified only for small areas. There is only information available on erosion risks and not on the real soil loss. Uncertainties concerning total soil loss and the impact of climate change in relation to human management are very high. Soils are the biggest reservoir of terrestrial carbon. Under constant environmental conditions the rate of carbon accumulation in soil is balanced by the loss of carbon due to decomposition of dead vegetation remains and mineralisation of humus. This balance results in storage of carbon in soils over long periods. Higher temperature and less precipitation increase the rates of decomposition/mineralization and accelerate the release of CO2 from soils into the atmosphere. Decay of peat also leads to significant emissions of CH4 and N2O into the atmosphere. The amount of these GHG emissions from soils can be much higher than reductions through mitigation measures and can therefore seriously accelerate global warming. The magnitude of the carbon turnover in soils on the EU scale is insufficiently understood, making assessment and quantification of the effect of climate change on soils and evaluation of feedback of soil impact on climate uncertain. Biodiversity of soil organisms is very complex and still poorly monitored. The organisms are very important for processes such as the decomposition of organic matter and for ecosystem stability. But there are only very few data about species that are winners or losers under changing climate and the impacts these changes may have on ecosystem functioning. A better understanding of soil processes under climate change would need more information on trends in extreme weather events, more detailed data on carbon storage and in-depth understanding of soil processes under changing climate.80 80 See further information also http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ and the European Soil Data Center, http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/esdac/index.html 44 4.8.2 Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity Phenology and diversity of plants and animals show significant changes, but observed trends are still rather fragmentary in terms of European coverage and number of observed species. A fundamental problem is the different sensitivity of individual species to changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and other climate variables. Using the observed distribution of species in relation to current climate conditions allows projections of the natural habitat of these species under future climates. However, these take no account of the individual resilience and adaptation capacity of the species, positive and negative impacts of management and risk of disconnection of predator — prey relations in the food web. The impact of climate change on the number of individuals per species (abundance), which is also very important for genetic variety and consequently for survival, so far was considered only to a very limited extent. Monitoring of biodiversity is based partly on regular screening of plants and species in protected areas. Most of the pan-European information is based on temporary research projects, including ALARM (Assessing large scale risks for biodiversity with testes methods)81, MACIS (Minimisation of and adaptation to climate change impacts on biodiversity)82, GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments)83, voluntary networks and the activities of NGOs. There is more information on observed changes in phenology, based mainly on voluntary observation networks than for changes in distribution. However there are only very general projections on phenological changes, based mainly on interpretations of changes in temperatures. More efforts are needed to improve monitoring, especially in areas where data sampling is still rather poor or data exist but are not accessible. A more systematic and harmonised observation of species and their abundance across Europe is needed to improve the still very fragmented knowledge of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. 4.8.3 Agriculture and forestry The agriculture and forestry sectors are affected by climate change and non-climatic impacts. Both sectors are clearly dominated by management, and it is therefore difficult to attribute specific trends from field observations uniquely to a changing climate. Nevertheless, direct observations and model based reconstructions allow the identification of specific climate-related impacts on plant growth. Also very extensive experiments e.g. FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment experiments) are being performed to investigate the impacts of climate change on crop and tree species, including interactions with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the impacts of management. Results are then extrapolated using models to simulate the physiological response of plants to changing conditions. There is still significant lack of knowledge and data on the individual responses of species to climate change and the subsequent changes in competition in forests and grasslands, also because the responses of species depend on age and time of exposure. More precise analyses and projections for agriculture and forestry would further require more detailed information on management for each site and forest stand. Data and projections of fire risks are rather robust. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) is maintained by the Joint Research Centre (JRC).84 EFFIS addresses forest fires in Europe in a comprehensive way, providing EU level assessments from pre-fire to post-fire phases, thus supporting fire prevention, preparedness, fire fighting and post-fire evaluations. 81 http://www.alarmproject.net/alarm/ http://www.macis-project.net/index.html 83 http://www.gloria.ac.at/ 84 http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ 82 45 EFFIS is supported by a network of Experts on Forest Fires from 22 EU countries. Projections of the impacts of other extreme events like storms are very uncertain. There is a big gap in information on the possible changes in pressures from pests and diseases on crops and forests under a changing climate. Pan-European assessments will certainly be more precise and accurate when specific local conditions and physiological constrains of crops, trees and pests are fully taken into account. But lack of knowledge on physiological responses of individual plant species to climate change and still inaccurate projections of future climate at the regional level make projections rather uncertain, especially in areas where precipitation is the limiting factor for agriculture and forestry. Projections for areas where temperatures are the limiting factor are expected to deliver more robust results. 4.8.4 Human health Climate change impacts on human health include direct impacts due mainly to heat waves, storms and floods, and indirect impacts by vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. Positive impacts include a lower risk of deaths from low temperatures. Quantification of the direct impacts of temperature has been attempted in several studies; quantification of the other extreme events and indirect impacts lacks empirical studies. A review of the health impact assessments of climate change has been made in the context of the fourth assessment report of the IPCC 85 . Several research needs have also been identified in the projects cCASHh (climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Human health in Europe)86, EDEN87 (Emerging diseases in a changing European environment) and MICRODIS (Integrated Health Social and Economic Impact of Extreme Events: Evidence, Methods and Tools)88. Regarding projections, few assessments of the potential future health impacts of climate change have been made. They stress various limitations and rarely quantify the health impacts. Methods and tools to assess 'unpredictable' events, e.g. unknown and new pathogen agents and transmission modes, are needed. There is also a need for integrated approaches through international networks and research combining vector biology and ecology, microbiology, hosts, vectors and pathogens genetics, epidemiology, medical and social sciences, including economics. The ECDC (European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control) has started in 2008 a project on impacts of climate change on food- and water-borne (FWB) diseases in Europe89. WHO has started in 2009 a project on climate change and health indicators. However there are many data gaps at the appropriate spatial and temporal resolution, needed for proper climate change related decision making. An example is the lack of information on vector competence under a changing climate of many arthropod species (insects, ticks), competence of many vertebrate (rodents, bats, other wild mammals, birds) species and an understanding of the genetic, biological and ecological basis of vector/host distribution and their transmission competence for bacteria, viruses and parasites. An important source of uncertainty is the extent to which adaptation actions, such as preventive measures and appropriate changes in health systems, will be implemented and effective over the next few decades. Furthermore analysis is needed of effective combinations of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions to reduce cardio-respiratory diseases. 85 WG II, chapter 8: human health; Confalonieri et al., 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm http://www.euro.who.int/globalchange/assessment/20070403_1 87 http://www.eden-fp6project.net/ 88 http://www.microdis-eu.be/ 89 http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/Health_Topics/Climate_change/actions.aspx 86 46 4.9 Projections To improve the development of adaptation strategies, high-resolution, tailor-made climate change scenarios at the regional or even local levels are needed, and at the appropriate scale. Thus the above requirements on the past to present state of the climate system will in principle also apply to forward-looking studies. However, there will be limitations on some of the aspects, due to limitations in both global and downscaled regional climate change models. There are various causes of uncertainties including incomplete understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes; different global/regional climate models; insufficient length of time series to validate these models and possibly most importantly the uncertainty in future emissions from human activities. Great care needs to be taken to avoid overextending the spatial and temporal resolution of the information beyond statistical and analytical credibility as this will lead to a false sense of reliability amongst users. Instead information from regional and sub-regional models should be published with the uncertainties underlying them and the caveats for their use clearly embedded with them. It would be useful if European climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment projects would adopt the same contrasting set of global climate scenarios, such as those used by IPCC, and make use of the same or similar regional climate projections. Furthermore improvement of climate models is needed, e.g. through producing ensembles of climate simulations and thus present probabilities of future climate. There will be a need both for explorative research for the very long term (centuries) and for analysis of climate-change impacts in the medium term (decades) for which better adaptation actions urgently need to be developed. However, despite uncertainties in existing climate change scenarios (which should be presented transparently), stakeholders will have to make decisions, which could then be further improved as more detailed scenarios become available. 47 5. Current GMES services and gaps The existing GMES services already provide climate-related information within their specific domains. However, the cross-cutting nature of climate change and its range of impacts on the environment and human health, property and infrastructure impose requirements beyond the definition and scope of the already existing services, which will be highlighted in the following sections. 5.1 Land GMES Land Environmental Services aim to provide operationally sound, reliable and affordable land related geo-information products on the regional, European and global scale. By the combined analysis of data received from Earth Observation satellites and ground based measuring networks these services aim to provide wide-area and cross-border harmonized geoinformation products for a multitude of thematic areas, like land use / land cover change, soil sealing, water quality and availability, spatial planning, forest management, carbon storage and global food security. Selected examples of products from various European regions can be viewed and tested on the Land Information Services portal90. Two core services have so far been established within the Geoland project91. These serve the Geoland observatories, providing them with basic geo-information products that the various services can build their individual efforts on: The Core Service Generic Landcover provides the Geoland regional observatories with harmonized, topical and geometric correct basic information on landcover. The Core Service Bio-Geophysical Parameters supplies generic information on biogeophysical attributes of land surfaces at regional and global scales to the global observatories within Geoland. According to recent GCOS progress reporting92, however little progress is made towards fineresolution land cover maps as one concrete example. GlobCover93 is the first detailed highresolution (300 m) land cover map at global level, generated by ESA in partnership with FAO and UNEP. However, no global product is available at the required 10-30 m resolution. Currently, the European GMES land monitoring core service is planning a medium-resolution product (approx. 30 m) for Europe and a higher-resolution product (approx. 1 m) for urban areas. The US and some other countries also have a comparable national land-imaging programme. No concerted action towards a global product has been achieved, however. Reanalysis is within the scope of Geoland, however, the envisaged time period covers only a few years, which limits its usefulness to detect trends or significant changes in the environment. 90 http://www.land.eu/ http://www.gmes-geoland.info/ and http://www.gmes-gseland.info/ 92 Draft Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC 2004-2008, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf 93 http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEMXB7TTGOF_index_0.html 91 48 5.2 Marine MyOcean94 is a EU FP7 project with the objective to define and to set up a concerted and integrated pan-European (GMES) capacity for Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting. MyOcean Service provides information available on the Ocean for the large scale (worldwide coverage) and regional scales (European seas), based on the combination of space and in situ observations, and their assimilation into 3D simulation models on temperature, salinity, currents, ice extent, and sea level. The areas of benefit are: Maritime security, oil spill prevention, marine resources management, climate change, seasonal forecasting, coastal activities, and ice sheet surveys. Also some efforts are made at modelling ecosystem changes. MyOcean aims at providing real time observations, analysis and forecast. The specific services provided in 2009 are described in a catalogue95, while in 2010 a single and entry point and a direct access to products will be offered. It is important to note that MyOcean provides a core data service whereas there is less emphasis on interpretation. A reanalysis is planned in the last part of the project, but the focus of the project is more on providing the service and less on providing assessments/interpretations. According to recent GCOS progress reporting96, there is still little progress in the process of establishing frameworks for internationally-coordinated ocean observations in the Arctic. Instead, a EuroGOOS Regional Operational Oceanographic System (ROOS)97 was established to coordinate Arctic observations, data management, analyses and forecasts between European participants. The Arctic ROOS has today a key role in developing European GMES marine core services in the Arctic. Regarding sustained sea-ice observations from space, there has been improvement in sea ice concentration algorithms from satellite data on the part of several space agencies and associated groups, such as NOAA, the EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility, the ESA GlobIce programme and the GMES Polar View service. Knowledge of the three dimensional state and dynamics of the global ocean is a key requirement for seasonal and climate prediction. This imposes requirements on the data sets, and in particular a sufficiently long data record is important to properly define characteristics such as the mean state of the marine environment, fluctuations, past trends and future projections. MyOcean already includes ambitions for reanalysis elements both at the global scale and for specific regions (Arctic, Black Sea) using the latest ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis data as atmospheric driver. The envisaged period of reanalysis comprises 1993 – present, which is expected to deliver a solid proof of concept of marine reanalysis. Yet, for the detection of significant changes/trends in the environment, longer time series would be clearly beneficial. 94 http://www.myocean.eu.org/ http://www.myocean.eu.org/repository/full_catalogue_v0.pdf 96 Draft Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC 2004-2008, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf 97 http://arctic-roos.org/ 95 49 5.3 Atmosphere The GMES Atmosphere Core Service (GACS) in its current design provides coherent information on a number of atmospheric variables in support of European policies and for the benefit of European citizens. Its services cover air quality, climate change/forcing, and stratospheric ozone and solar radiation. According to recent GCOS progress reporting98, substantial progress is being made on vertical profiles for greenhouse gases, ozone and aerosols. Furthermore, there have been important launches of both operational and research missions providing enhanced measurement of atmospheric composition, and major commitments and initiatives towards future missions such as the GMES Sentinels and the CEOS Atmospheric Chemistry Virtual Constellation are underway. Regarding integrated analyses of CO2 and CH4 observations, integration of greenhouse gas observations and their assimilation in models has occurred within the NOAA Carbon Tracker system, as well as under the European GMES initiative. Another CO2 and CH4 tracking system has been developed by the EU-funded GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in situ data) project. Even in the area of satellite atmospheric composition measurements, considerable progress has been made with the launch or planning of new operational instruments, such as GOME-2 on Metop, a number of high-spectral resolution infrared sounders and the GMES Sentinel series. However, although valuable information on many ECVs is already available from this service, it was in first place designed to deal with atmospheric composition. Consequently, from a climate perspective its main objective is to provide information on the climate forcing rather than the physical state of the climate. Even in the GAS implementation project MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate), a follow-up of the earlier projects GEMS99 and PROMOTE100, atmospheric composition and air quality will be prioritized. Limited reanalysis of GHGs, reactive gases, aerosols is already planned for the period of 2003-2010. Although this is already an important activity, longer time series would be beneficial. It is beyond the scope of the existing GACS implementation projects to provide a complete physical and environmental picture of multi-decadal past trends, present status and future trends (projections) of the climate system, which is a likely key requirement on a mature GMES Climate Service contribution. This gap will need to be filled. Thus, in addition to the incorporation of climate relevant deliveries from ongoing/already funded projects, new GMES Climate Service implementation projects (e.g. European global and regional reanalysis capacity building projects) will probably be needed. As pointed out in the discussion on general climate change needs above, it will be crucial to design the new services so that their information content can and will be applied for European policy making. Thus, the services and their information content need to be easy accessible, include uncertainty assessments, properly communicate 98 Draft Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC 2004-2008, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/GCOSProgressReport_ReviewDraft_080409.pdf 99 http://gems.ecmwf.int/ 100 http://www.gse-promote.org/ 50 uncertainty, include educational facilities, include tailoring to specific user groups and use cases, and provide information and data at the appropriate geographical coverage, record length, consistency, spatio-temporal resolution and fit-for-purpose quality. 5.4 Emergency The GMES Support to Emergencies and Humanitarian Aid services target three main application domains: Civil Protection: National Civil Protection Services of Europe, DG ENV (European CP Unit), and more globally all risk management actors in Europe at different territorial scales Humanitarian Aid: DG RELEX, DG ECHO, NGOs Security crises: European Council, Member States At EU level a Community Mechanism for Civil Protection101 exists with the main role to facilitate co-operation in civil protection assistance interventions in the event of major emergencies which may require urgent response actions. It can provide added-value to European civil protection assistance by making support available on request of the affected country. A Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC), operated by the European Commission, is the operational heart of the Community Mechanism. A Common Emergency Communication and Information System (CECIS) facilitates communication between the MIC with National Authorities in the different phases of emergencies (Prevention, Preparedness, Response). It hosts a database on potentially available assets for assistance, to handle requests for assistance on the basis of these data, to exchange information and to document all action and message traffic. The European Commission adopted in Feb 2009 a Communication on a Community approach on the prevention of natural and man-made disasters102. Proposed action at Community level focuses on developing knowledge, linking actors and policies, and improving the performance of existing Community disaster prevention instruments. It mentions specifically the need for creating an inventory of information on disasters, and notes that the currently available information needs to be improved to fill gaps and improve comparability. It also mentions the need for Community guidelines for hazard and risk mapping. GMES is expected to provide a basis for various actions mentioned in the Communication. The current GMES services address all types of disasters: natural disasters (floods, fires, landslides, storms, earthquakes, etc.), technological accidents, humanitarian crises (for instance after a severe drought period), civilian-military crises. Pre-operational services for Crisis management support have been developed by the GMES Service Element for Humanitarian Relief - RESPOND and the GMES Service Element for Civil Protection – RISK-EOS103. Additionally further work in the Civil Protection domain is being carried out under the 6th Framework Programme project PREVIEW104. The development of the prototype GMES Emergency Response service is currently performed by the SAFER project105 which is partly funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme. 101 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/civil/prote/mechanism.htm http://ec.europa.eu/environment/civil/pdfdocs/com_2009_82en.pdf 103 http://www.risk-eos.com/actus/pge/index.php?arbo=0 104 http://www.preview-risk.com/site/FO/scripts/myFO_accueil.php?lang=EN 105 http://www.emergencyresponse.eu/ 102 51 There are already some elements of relevance to a CC service existing in the GMES Emergency service. However, most of the work is on real-time activities, e.g. rapid mapping, and long term time series at the required spatial detail are not available. Furthermore some of the work covers only parts of Europe. 5.5 GMES in-situ coordination The EEA FP7-proposal for the coordination of the in-situ component of GMES is at this stage still under review. The proposed project will offer proofs of concept based on the data flows and requirements of FP7 pre-operational projects; and will leave a robust legacy of processes to enable the requirements of the future Core Services for such data and products to be met. In support of the GMES Bureau, the action will similarly explore how a future management (governance, architecture) of the in situ component during an operational phase might best be achieved. This will ensure that elements of data essential for the delivery of operational user-driven services are integrated in the developing services, and are provided with the necessary quality and efficiency. The picture is not static; the nature of the activity will evolve over the lifetime of the project, and the follow-up arrangements must be capable of further evolution. Example elements of the in-situ coordination relevant in connection to a possible GMES climate change contribution are the following: Adequate descriptions of the status and trends of the Earth system components – In-situ data are key for activities such as hindcasting and analysing Global and European climate, e.g. reanalysis and downscaling techniques. By its nature, Climate Change is cross-cutting through many thematic domains, affecting, e.g., all other GEO societal benefit areas (agriculture, biodiversity, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water, weather) – Thus, there are likely to be in-situ coordination needs beyond the requirements imposed by the already existing service components. 52 6. Summary of main data needs and gaps The paper has shown the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and exchange and reducing uncertainties in projections, to improve climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Especially in the key environmental areas of freshwater, marine and terrestrial biodiversity/ecosystems and land use/soil, there is a need for long-term data series (e.g. decades) to allow for trend analysis and extreme value analysis as well as a need for a higher spatial resolution. GMES is already contributing relevant climate change related data and information in several of the existing services (Marine Services; Atmospheric Service; Land Services; Support to Emergencies and Humanitarian Aid). Considerable progress within GCOS, supported by GMES, is reported from the field of atmosphere and to minor extent from the ocean (e.g., vertical profiles for greenhouse gases; ozone and aerosols, integrated analyses of CO2 and CH4 observations; satellite atmospheric composition measurements; sustained sea-ice observations from space; establish frameworks for internationally-coordinated ocean observations in the Arctic). On the terrestrial side, progress supported by GMES is low (e.g. regular fine-resolution global land cover maps), and no significant GMES commitment is made for many of the other GCOS actions (overarching and cross-cutting actions; atmospheric domain actions; oceanic domain actions; terrestrial domain actions). The needs mentioned above for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments go beyond what the currently operational initial GMES services can deliver at this stage. At present, these services focus to a large extent on nowcasting and near real time and short term (days) forecasting products and data. Remote sensing and in-situ observational systems have different strengths and weaknesses. Regarding past trends of the climate, there is a need to ensure a better exploitation of the diverse sources of information, combining and integrating them in a consistent way through blending techniques such as reanalysis. The concept of reanalyses and downscaling provides a promising technique to meet these demands. This will though need the allocation of funding for the development of reanalysis capacity (e.g. through FP7) as well as a governing framework for the maintenance and operation of the capacity (e.g. through a GMES climate change contribution). The existing GMES projects do aim to include reanalysis activities in all three earth system component services (land, ocean, atmosphere), but the reanalysis elements are generally constrained to short time periods which limits their usefulness to detect significant changes/trends in the environment. It will also be important to include projections of climate change impacts into a GMES climate change contribution. The key information needs for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments are appropriate: geographical coverage (the impacts of climate change transcend the boundaries of individual countries, thus there is a need for alternative analysis units such as catchments, sea basins, bio-geographic regions), record length (allowing for the detection of significant trends/changes in the environment) consistency, o in time (homogeneity considerations, to allow for comparability of information) 53 o in space (e.g. in the analysis across national boundaries to allow for pan-European comparability of assessments) o between variables/indicators (also for non-physical and non-chemical variables such as socio-economic variables) spatio-temporal resolution, (e.g. regional reanalysis) quality (fit-for-purpose) Furthermore climate data are also needed for environmental accounting system (System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, SEEA), in particular water accounting. The table below is an attempt to summarize current requirements for several thematic domains and some key climate variables. This list should though not be taken as constant, as the requirements are likely to change over time, e.g. in the light of an evolving adaptation framework and adaptation actions, for some of the main climate variables. A key cross-cutting requirement is the need for consistency, in particular with regard to integrated climate change and environmental assessments. Table 9 - Key data requirements for assessments on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation by thematic area (Eco)system Component / Service Wind energy Air pollution Storm / storm surges Temporal resolution hourly - average & extremes extremes Spatial resolution < 10 x 10km < 10 x 10km 10 x 10 Biomes Vegetation change monthly < 50 x 50km Forest Growth and yield daily – montly < 1 x 1km Agriculture Biodiversity Yield and biofuels Species distribution and habitats Water quantity Floods < daily monthly and seasonal extremes monthly hourly - daily < 1 x 1km < 10 x 10km Water and wind erosion layer mixing ecosystem dynamic Coastal systems Hourly < 1 x 1km monthly Synoptic weather < 100 x 100 km < 100 x 100 km < 10 x 10 km Atmosphere106 Freshwater Soil Marine 10 x 10km < 1 x 1 km Time period seasonal-years decade seasonal-years decade seasonal-years decades seasonal-decades centuries years-decades century years years-decades years-decades seasonal-yearsdecades years - decades seasonal-years – decades seasonal-years years-decades Finally to improve the development of adaptation strategies, also high-resolution, tailor-made climate change scenarios at the regional or even local levels are needed, and at the appropriate 106 As characterized by variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction, humidity, etc. 54 scale. Thus the above requirements on the past to present state of the climate system will in principle also apply to forward-looking studies. However, there will be limitations on some of the aspects, due to limitations in both global and downscaled regional climate change models. There will be a need both for explorative research for the very long term (centuries) and for analysis of climate-change impacts in the medium term (decades) for which better adaptation actions urgently need to be developed. 55 7. Conclusions and recommendations Requirements on a GMES climate change contribution to support climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments will go beyond the requirements for the existing GMES services. A GMES climate change contribution should therefore provide the following elements: Long time series of processed observations Consistent information, both across the variables within a specific earth system component but also across the components taking into account interactions (in particular feedback) mechanisms between different components of the climate system Use appropriate geographical coverage, quality and granularity of information (in time and space) Projections of climate change impacts relevant for ecosystem based climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments Easily accessible products and services for the general public Expert interpretations and integrated assessments 56