* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download The impact of climate change, particularly on Pacific Island communities.
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in New Zealand wikipedia , lookup
Paris Agreement wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Australia wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
The impact of climate change, particularly on Pacific Island communities. Presented at the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, Australian Region 26 th Australian and Pacific Regional Conference, Adelaide, 22 - 26 July 2002. Hon Giz Watson MLC, Member for North Metropolitan Region, Western Australia, 19 July 2001. Regarding the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, Australian region 26 th Australian and Pacific Regional Conference Adelaide 22 - 26 July 2002 The impact of climate change, particularly on Pacific Island communities. Hon Giz Watson MLC, Member for North Metropolitan Region, Western Australia 19 July 2001 'It is not a question ofwhether the Earth's climate will change, but rather by how much, how fast and where. It is undisputed that the last two decades have been the warmest this century, indeed the warmest for the last 1000 years, sea level is rising, precipitation patterns are changing, Arctic ice is thinning and the frequency and intensity ofEl-Nino events appear to be increasing. In addition, many parts ofthe world have recently suffered major heat-waves, floods, droughts and extreme weather events leading to significant loss oflife and economic costs Climate models, using the latest emissions projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, project an increase in global mean surface temperature of 1.5 to these changes in 6 degrees Centigrade between 1990 and 2100, temperature will be accompanied by changes in precipitation patterns and sea level rise. ' .00 000 (Robert T. Watson, Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, November 2000.) In a resolution on the need for urgent action on climate change, the Global Greens Conference held in Canberra in April 2001 recognised: '00. the greater vulnerability ofdeveloping (majority) nations who have contributed the least to global warming, in particular the small island states, and that the refusal to act now represents a crime against present andfuture generations.' i countries to take the lead and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Of the developed countries of the Commonwealth only the UK has ratified the Protocol. It is predicted that climate change will have severe adverse impact on the majority of Commonwealth countries, but more particularly developing countries. It is expected to reduce crop yields in most Commonwealth developed countries by up to 30% by 2050, with food security in India, Pakistan and a number of African members severely jeopardised. In a recent discussion paper from the independent public policy research centre, the Australia Institute, entitled "Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations", the authors say: '...sea level rise is predicted to put millions ofCommonwealth citizens at risk along the coasts ofsouth and east Africa, the Indian sub-continent and South-East Asia. Ofthe 54 Commonwealth members, 27 are also members ofthe Alliance ofSmall Island States. Small island nations ofthe Commonwealth are particularly vulnerable, with three at risk oftotal submersion and major population displacement expected in others. By the end ofthe century, membership ofthe Commonwealth is expected to shrink for this reason. Furthermore, developing Commonwealth countries are expected to suffer from the spread oftropical vector-borne diseases and associated morbidity and mortality. Many developing country members ofthe Commonwealth do not have the resources to respond and adapt to the threat ofclimate change, so the costs will be high. By contrast, developed Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) are expected to suffer fewer adverse effects from climate change. They are also sufficiently wealthy to respond and adapt. The wealthy nations ofthe Commonwealth have a special responsibility to help protect developing country members from the potential catastrophes ofclimate change. Yet some rich Commonwealth countries show no concern and have effectively abandoned poor countries to their fate.' ii The Australia Institute discussion paper's summary concludes: 'By their actions, Australia and Canada have scorned the principles of mutuality on which the Commonwealth is based. Other Commonwealth members, particularly those threatened by climate change, have strong moral grounds for questioning the continued right ofAustralia and Canada to participate in Commonwealth processes.' iii What is the current and predicted impact of global warming and climate change on countries in the Australia/Pacific region? Recent history As long ago as 1989, in their Langkawi Declaration, the Commonwealth Heads of Government declared that they were 'deeply concerned at the serious deterioration in the environment', noting especially that some islands and low-lying areas are threatened by the prospect of rising sea levels. iv Ten years later the Commonwealth Secretary General, in his address to the UN General Assembly spoke ofthe vital need 'to avert serious environmental threats like climate change and sea-level rise'. He also called for the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force as soon as possible. v This call was repeated at CHOGM in Durban. Current statistics Nine of the ten warmest years on record were in the 1990's. The level of carbon dioxide is higher than at any time in the last 15 million years. The earth is expected to warm by a further 1-5 degrees Celsius this century, and sea level rise which has already started will continue for the next 500 years. vi There is concern that a rise in mean sea temperature of between 2 and 5 degrees at high southern latitudes, could lead to relatively rapid disintegration and melting of the Western Antarctic ice sheet leading to world-wide rises in mean sea level of 5 to 7 metres. The IPCC analysis predicts sea level rises of up to 95 centimetres by the end of the century. Tuvalu and Kiribati are predicted to suffer the greatest impact, including disappearance (in a worse case scenario). Nauru and Tonga will be subject to severe impacts, resulting in major population displacement. Fiji and Solomon Islands will be susceptible to moderate impacts. Vanuatu and Somoa are predicted to experience 'local severe to catastrophic' effects. VIII Crop yields and potable water With respect to crop yields and availability of potable water the predictions are that there will be saltwater infiltration into and below ground fresh water supplies, this is expected to have major impacts. Fishing One of Australia's leading coral reef scientists, Dr John Vernon, has stated that 'coral reefs, more than anything else, are first in line for the effects of global warming.' Loss of coral reef habitat with its residential fish species has enormous implications for island states. A report, entitled "Pacific in Peril: Biological, economic and social impacts of climate change on Pacific coral reefs", launched at the Pacific Island Forum in Kiribati says that as early as 2020 the 13 Pacific nations examined could expect serious economic decline, due to increased sea temperatures and coral bleaching. ix The report's worst-case scenario says that by 2020 some Melanesian nations could lose from 15% to 20% of their Gross Domestic Product, valued at about A$I.9billion and A$2.3billion. Other mainly Polynesian nations are even more vulnerable and could lose between A$5billion and A$4billion due to climate change. Tourism income and resulting employment could drop by between 25 % and 75%. Reef fisheries could drop in value added from 25% to 50% and pelagic (ocean travelling) fisheries by 10% to 25%. The most vulnerable Pacific nations are likely to be Tuvalu and Kiribati, followed by Cook Islands. Palau. Tonga. French Polynesia. Nauru. New Caledonia. then The Australia Institute says: 'While most industrialised countries were required to reduce their emissions by 6-8%, Australia was allowed to increase its emissions by 8%. In addition, a special 'Australia clause' covering measurement ofland clearing means that Australia will in effect be able to increase its emission by well over 20%. / ~ It is likely that, despite these concessions, on current trends Australia will significantly overshoot its required limit of 8% increase over 1990 emissions. In Western Australia alone new proposals for a massive expansion of the oil and gas industry are predicted to increase WA's greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 35%. The former Federal Minister for Industry, Science and Resources, Senator Minchin, has said'...we are not prepared to sacrifice Australian jobs, when ratification of the Protocol as it stands will not constrain emissions from developing countries.' (Media release 8 May 2001) This is despite the fact that Newspoll surveys show that 80% of Australians support ratification of the Kyoto Protocol - with or without the US. What is needed and what role should Parliamentarians take in the debate about controlling Greenhouse gas emissions? • Adopt a target of limiting carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere to 450 ppm in the shortest possible period as requested by the IPCC. • While recognising the gross insufficiency of the Kyoto Protocol, insist on Australia ratifying the Kyoto Protocol at next month's World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. • Apply pressure on Canada and the US to also ratify the Kyoto Protocol. • Work to establish an international emissions reporting framework for trans- • Challenge the false notion that energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will cost jobs. • Support the community call for urgent action on greenhouse gas emission reductions. The Global Greens, ed. Blakers, M. 2001. Publisher The Australian Greens and the Green Institute. Resolutions, Climate Change p 234 ii Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations, Hamilton, C. Turton, H and Pollard, P. October 2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia Institute, p v. iii Ibid. P VI. iv Ibid. P 1. v Ibid. P 1. vi The Global Greens, ed. Blakers, M. 2001. Publisher The Australian Greens and the Green Institute. Resolutions, Climate Change p 192. vii Quoted in Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations, Hamilton, C. Turton, H and Pollard, P. October 2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia Institute p 5. viii Ibid. P 6. iX"Pacific in Peril: Biological, economic and social impacts of climate change on Pacific coral reefs", Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Director of the University of Queensland's Centre for Marine Studies, and economists Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, David K Stout, Herman Cesar, and climate scientist Alex Timmermann. x Hamilton and Vellen 2000 quoted in Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations, Hamilton, C. Turton, H and Pollard, P. October 2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia Institute. Appendix 1 Source: 'Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations', Hamilton, C. Turton, H and Pollard, P. October 2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia Institute. 10 Table 2 Key characteristics of some Commonweafth countries Seychelles a.'This covers energy-related emissions only,as they are the onlydata available for developingcountries, When accountis taken of all emission sources and sinks, perCllpita emissions in Australiarise to 27.6 tonnes of CO 2-eq uival en1 per pers on. • Government of Bangladesh approved ratification On 25June 2001 (seehttp://www.climatenetwork.org! eco/Cop6bis/cn/cco5.html#IO). Source:Table Al in Appendix " Figure 2 Greenhouse gas emissions p-:r person in selected Commonwealth countries (t C02~ ener~ emissions only) a U 20 18 III a ~ c 16 .s 14 ca c 12 -.g 10 12 Box 2 What the climate agreements say about the responsibilities of rich and poor countries The Framework Convention on Climate Change (1991) (UNFCCC 1991) The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parries should luke the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof'(Article 3.1) The extent to which developing country parties will effectivelyimplement their commitment under the Convention will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties to their commitments under the Convention related to .financial resources and the transfer of technology and will take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties (Article 4.7) The developed country Parties ... shall also assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerableto the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects. (Article 4.4) The developed country Parties ... sball take all practrcable steps to promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer o~ or access to, environmentallysound technologies and know-howto other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the provisions of the Convention. (Article 4.5) The Parties shall take full account ofthc specific needs and special situations of the least developed countries in their actions with regard to funding and trans(er of technology. (Article4.9) The Berlin Mandate (1995) (UNFCCC 1995) [parties are guided by] the fact that the largest share of historicaland current global-emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that the per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and tbat the share of global emissions originating in developing countrieswill grow to meet their social and development needs (paragraph I.(d» [The Parties will] not introduce any Dew commitmentsfor Partiesnot included in Annex I [ie. developing countries), but reaffirm existing commitments in Article 4.1 and continue to advance the implement3rloD of these commitments in order to achieve sustainable development ... (Paragragh2.(b)) The Kyoto Protocol (1991) (UNFCCC 1997) 17 IAppencliX . ;:i" Table At Economic and climate change indicators for Commonwealth countries Commonwealth country Antigua and Barbuda Popnlatlon GDP per Greeohouse gas Aonex B' RaDfied Kyoto Member of capita energy emissions Protocol AOSIS per capita (as at \1\ (thousliodsl (ppp$)@l (t CO~) T~?t'!J) 67 10,225 6A 18,967 24,.574 . 18.2 Bahamas, The 298 15,258 12.2 Barbados Belize Botswana 267 247 14,353 4,959 6,872 5.3 1.1 2.1 Australia 1,588 CBJllef(]OO Canada -Fiji Islands 801 4,799 Ll Gambia, The 1,251 1,580 0.2 Ghana 18,785 .1,881 0.2 Guyana India 856 3,640 1.8 997,515 2,248 0.9 Jamaica 2.598 3,561 4.3 Kinbali 88 -1200· OJ Lesotho 2,105 10,788 1,854 0.1 0.1 269 4,423 Malawi Maldives 1l1_IL- 586 I 18 Commonwealth PopulatloD GDPper Greenhouse gas Annex B' Ratified KyOfj) Member of capita energy emissions Protocol AOSIS (as at lq per capita (tbousands) <PPPS)@ (t CO2) -:r"L=1 200~ country Saint Vincent/Grenadines SeycheUes Sien-a Leone Solomon Islands South Africa Sri Lanka 114 80 5,509 1.2 0 10,600 65 0 4,949 448 0.2 429 42,106 1,975 0.3 8,90B 8.7 18.985 5,309 0.5 Tanzania Tonga Trinidad and Toba 0 Uganda 21,479 1,167 O.OS United Kingdom 59,501 22,093 9.4 193 3,108 OJ 9,gSI 756 0.2 11,904 2,876 1.3 Vanuatu zamhia Zimbabwe Note: Population, income per capita. and emissions per capita for t 999. Kyoto Protocol ratificationas at 27 August 2001. @ Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) measured at current international dollars, as defined in Warld Bank: 2001. An international dollar represents the purchasing power of local currency converted to the equivalent purchasing power of the US dollar in the USA. # Included in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol, i.e., developed country Party with an emission target, • Currently suspended from the Commonwealth, although Fiji may be re-admitted shortly. a. EstimatEd from UNDP 2000. b. Dam for Tuvalu from CIA 2000. GDP per capita estimateis based on 1995 figures, so therefore excludes income from licensing of its '900' area code and '.tv' Internet domain name. Total electricity consumption is estimatedat 3 GWband the COUDby has DO heavy industty. Accordingly, per capita emissions are estimated at <1.0 tormes no.