Download The impact of climate change, particularly on Pacific Island communities.

The impact of climate change, particularly
on Pacific Island communities.
Presented at the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, Australian Region
26 th Australian and Pacific Regional Conference, Adelaide, 22 - 26 July 2002.
Hon Giz Watson MLC, Member for North Metropolitan Region, Western Australia, 19
July 2001.
Regarding the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association,
Australian region
26 th Australian and Pacific Regional Conference
Adelaide
22 - 26 July 2002
The impact of climate change, particularly on Pacific
Island communities.
Hon Giz Watson MLC, Member for North Metropolitan Region, Western Australia
19 July 2001
'It is not a question ofwhether the Earth's climate will change, but rather by
how much, how fast and where. It is undisputed that the last two decades
have been the warmest this century, indeed the warmest for the last 1000
years, sea level is rising, precipitation patterns are changing, Arctic ice is
thinning and the frequency and intensity ofEl-Nino events appear to be
increasing. In addition, many parts ofthe world have recently suffered
major heat-waves, floods, droughts and extreme weather events leading to
significant loss oflife and economic costs
Climate models, using the
latest emissions projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios, project an increase in global mean surface temperature of 1.5 to
these changes in
6 degrees Centigrade between 1990 and 2100,
temperature will be accompanied by changes in precipitation patterns and
sea level rise. '
.00
000
(Robert T. Watson, Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, November
2000.)
In a resolution on the need for urgent action on climate change, the Global Greens
Conference held in Canberra in April 2001 recognised:
'00. the greater vulnerability ofdeveloping (majority) nations who have
contributed the least to global warming, in particular the small island
states, and that the refusal to act now represents a crime against present
andfuture generations.' i
countries to take the lead and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Of the developed
countries of the Commonwealth only the UK has ratified the Protocol.
It is predicted that climate change will have severe adverse impact on the majority
of Commonwealth countries, but more particularly developing countries. It is
expected to reduce crop yields in most Commonwealth developed countries by up
to 30% by 2050, with food security in India, Pakistan and a number of African
members severely jeopardised.
In a recent discussion paper from the independent public policy research centre, the
Australia Institute, entitled "Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations", the
authors say:
'...sea level rise is predicted to put millions ofCommonwealth citizens at
risk along the coasts ofsouth and east Africa, the Indian sub-continent and
South-East Asia. Ofthe 54 Commonwealth members, 27 are also members
ofthe Alliance ofSmall Island States. Small island nations ofthe
Commonwealth are particularly vulnerable, with three at risk oftotal
submersion and major population displacement expected in others. By the
end ofthe century, membership ofthe Commonwealth is expected to shrink
for this reason.
Furthermore, developing Commonwealth countries are expected to suffer
from the spread oftropical vector-borne diseases and associated morbidity
and mortality. Many developing country members ofthe Commonwealth do
not have the resources to respond and adapt to the threat ofclimate change,
so the costs will be high.
By contrast, developed Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, New
Zealand and the United Kingdom) are expected to suffer fewer adverse
effects from climate change. They are also sufficiently wealthy to respond
and adapt. The wealthy nations ofthe Commonwealth have a special
responsibility to help protect developing country members from the
potential catastrophes ofclimate change. Yet some rich Commonwealth
countries show no concern and have effectively abandoned poor countries
to their fate.' ii
The Australia Institute discussion paper's summary concludes:
'By their actions, Australia and Canada have scorned the principles of
mutuality on which the Commonwealth is based. Other Commonwealth
members, particularly those threatened by climate change, have strong
moral grounds for questioning the continued right ofAustralia and Canada
to participate in Commonwealth processes.' iii
What is the current and predicted impact of global warming and climate
change on countries in the Australia/Pacific region?
Recent history
As long ago as 1989, in their Langkawi Declaration, the Commonwealth Heads of
Government declared that they were 'deeply concerned at the serious deterioration
in the environment', noting especially that some islands and low-lying areas are
threatened by the prospect of rising sea levels. iv
Ten years later the Commonwealth Secretary General, in his address to the UN
General Assembly spoke ofthe vital need 'to avert serious environmental threats
like climate change and sea-level rise'. He also called for the Kyoto Protocol to
enter into force as soon as possible. v
This call was repeated at CHOGM in Durban.
Current statistics
Nine of the ten warmest years on record were in the 1990's. The level of carbon
dioxide is higher than at any time in the last 15 million years. The earth is expected
to warm by a further 1-5 degrees Celsius this century, and sea level rise which has
already started will continue for the next 500 years. vi
There is concern that a rise in mean sea temperature of between 2 and 5 degrees at
high southern latitudes, could lead to relatively rapid disintegration and melting of
the Western Antarctic ice sheet leading to world-wide rises in mean sea level of 5
to 7 metres.
The IPCC analysis predicts sea level rises of up to 95 centimetres by the end of the
century.
Tuvalu and Kiribati are predicted to suffer the greatest impact, including
disappearance (in a worse case scenario). Nauru and Tonga will be subject to
severe impacts, resulting in major population displacement. Fiji and Solomon
Islands will be susceptible to moderate impacts. Vanuatu and Somoa are predicted
to experience 'local severe to catastrophic' effects. VIII
Crop yields and potable water
With respect to crop yields and availability of potable water the predictions are that
there will be saltwater infiltration into and below ground fresh water supplies, this
is expected to have major impacts.
Fishing
One of Australia's leading coral reef scientists, Dr John Vernon, has stated that
'coral reefs, more than anything else, are first in line for the effects of global
warming.' Loss of coral reef habitat with its residential fish species has enormous
implications for island states.
A report, entitled "Pacific in Peril: Biological, economic and social impacts of
climate change on Pacific coral reefs", launched at the Pacific Island Forum in
Kiribati says that as early as 2020 the 13 Pacific nations examined could expect
serious economic decline, due to increased sea temperatures and coral bleaching.
ix
The report's worst-case scenario says that by 2020 some Melanesian nations could
lose from 15% to 20% of their Gross Domestic Product, valued at about
A$I.9billion and A$2.3billion. Other mainly Polynesian nations are even more
vulnerable and could lose between A$5billion and A$4billion due to climate
change. Tourism income and resulting employment could drop by between 25 %
and 75%. Reef fisheries could drop in value added from 25% to 50% and pelagic
(ocean travelling) fisheries by 10% to 25%.
The most vulnerable Pacific nations are likely to be Tuvalu and Kiribati, followed
by Cook Islands. Palau. Tonga. French Polynesia. Nauru. New Caledonia. then
The Australia Institute says:
'While most industrialised countries were required to reduce their emissions
by 6-8%, Australia was allowed to increase its emissions by 8%. In
addition, a special 'Australia clause' covering measurement ofland clearing
means that Australia will in effect be able to increase its emission by well
over 20%. / ~
It is likely that, despite these concessions, on current trends Australia will
significantly overshoot its required limit of 8% increase over 1990 emissions.
In Western Australia alone new proposals for a massive expansion of the oil and
gas industry are predicted to increase WA's greenhouse gas emissions by
approximately 35%.
The former Federal Minister for Industry, Science and Resources, Senator Minchin,
has said'...we are not prepared to sacrifice Australian jobs, when ratification of the
Protocol as it stands will not constrain emissions from developing countries.'
(Media release 8 May 2001)
This is despite the fact that Newspoll surveys show that 80% of Australians support
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol - with or without the US.
What is needed and what role should Parliamentarians take in the debate
about controlling Greenhouse gas emissions?
•
Adopt a target of limiting carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere to 450 ppm
in the shortest possible period as requested by the IPCC.
•
While recognising the gross insufficiency of the Kyoto Protocol, insist on
Australia ratifying the Kyoto Protocol at next month's World Summit on
Sustainable Development in Johannesburg.
•
Apply pressure on Canada and the US to also ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
•
Work to establish an international emissions reporting framework for trans-
•
Challenge the false notion that energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions will cost jobs.
•
Support the community call for urgent action on greenhouse gas emission
reductions.
The Global Greens, ed. Blakers, M. 2001. Publisher The Australian Greens and the Green
Institute. Resolutions, Climate Change p 234
ii Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations, Hamilton, C. Turton, H and Pollard, P. October
2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia Institute, p v.
iii Ibid. P VI.
iv Ibid. P 1.
v Ibid. P 1.
vi The Global Greens, ed. Blakers, M. 2001. Publisher The Australian Greens and the Green
Institute. Resolutions, Climate Change p 192.
vii Quoted in Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations, Hamilton, C. Turton, H and Pollard, P.
October 2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia Institute p 5.
viii Ibid. P 6.
iX"Pacific in Peril: Biological, economic and social impacts of climate change on Pacific coral
reefs", Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Director of the University of Queensland's Centre for
Marine Studies, and economists Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, David K Stout, Herman Cesar, and climate
scientist Alex Timmermann.
x Hamilton and Vellen 2000 quoted in Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations, Hamilton, C.
Turton, H and Pollard, P. October 2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia Institute.
Appendix 1
Source:
'Climate Change and Commonwealth Nations', Hamilton, C. Turton, H
and Pollard, P. October 2001. Discussion paper no. 40, The Australia
Institute.
10
Table 2 Key characteristics of some Commonweafth countries
Seychelles
a.'This covers energy-related emissions only,as they are the onlydata available for developingcountries,
When accountis taken of all emission sources and sinks, perCllpita emissions in Australiarise to 27.6
tonnes of CO 2-eq uival en1 per pers on.
• Government of Bangladesh approved ratification On 25June 2001 (seehttp://www.climatenetwork.org!
eco/Cop6bis/cn/cco5.html#IO).
Source:Table Al in Appendix
"
Figure 2 Greenhouse gas emissions p-:r person in selected Commonwealth
countries
(t C02~ ener~ emissions only)
a
U
20
18
III
a
~
c
16
.s
14
ca
c
12
-.g
10
12
Box 2
What the climate agreements say about the responsibilities
of rich and poor countries
The Framework Convention on Climate Change (1991) (UNFCCC 1991)
The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on
the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parries should luke the lead in combating climate change and the
adverse effects thereof'(Article 3.1)
The extent to which developing country parties will effectivelyimplement their commitment under the Convention
will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties to their commitments under the
Convention related to .financial resources and the transfer of technology and will take fully into account that
economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing
country Parties (Article 4.7)
The developed country Parties ... shall also assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerableto
the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects. (Article 4.4)
The developed country Parties ... sball take all practrcable steps to promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate,
the transfer o~ or access to, environmentallysound technologies and know-howto other Parties, particularly
developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the provisions of the Convention. (Article 4.5)
The Parties shall take full account ofthc specific needs and special situations of the least developed countries in
their actions with regard to funding and trans(er of technology. (Article4.9)
The Berlin Mandate (1995) (UNFCCC 1995)
[parties are guided by] the fact that the largest share of historicaland current global-emissions of greenhouse gases
has originated in developed countries, that the per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low
and tbat the share of global emissions originating in developing countrieswill grow to meet their social and
development needs (paragraph I.(d»
[The Parties will] not introduce any Dew commitmentsfor Partiesnot included in Annex I [ie. developing
countries), but reaffirm existing commitments in Article 4.1 and continue to advance the implement3rloD of these
commitments in order to achieve sustainable development ... (Paragragh2.(b))
The Kyoto Protocol (1991) (UNFCCC 1997)
17
IAppencliX
. ;:i"
Table At Economic and climate change indicators for Commonwealth countries
Commonwealth
country
Antigua and Barbuda
Popnlatlon GDP per Greeohouse gas Aonex B' RaDfied Kyoto Member of
capita energy emissions
Protocol
AOSIS
per capita
(as at \1\
(thousliodsl (ppp$)@l
(t CO~)
T~?t'!J)
67
10,225
6A
18,967
24,.574
. 18.2
Bahamas, The
298
15,258
12.2
Barbados
Belize
Botswana
267
247
14,353
4,959
6,872
5.3
1.1
2.1
Australia
1,588
CBJllef(]OO
Canada
-Fiji Islands
801
4,799
Ll
Gambia, The
1,251
1,580
0.2
Ghana
18,785
.1,881
0.2
Guyana
India
856
3,640
1.8
997,515
2,248
0.9
Jamaica
2.598
3,561
4.3
Kinbali
88
-1200·
OJ
Lesotho
2,105
10,788
1,854
0.1
0.1
269
4,423
Malawi
Maldives
1l1_IL-
586
I
18
Commonwealth
PopulatloD GDPper Greenhouse gas Annex B' Ratified KyOfj) Member of
capita energy emissions
Protocol
AOSIS
(as at lq
per capita
(tbousands) <PPPS)@
(t CO2)
-:r"L=1 200~
country
Saint
Vincent/Grenadines
SeycheUes
Sien-a Leone
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Sri Lanka
114
80
5,509
1.2
0
10,600
65
0
4,949
448
0.2
429
42,106
1,975
0.3
8,90B
8.7
18.985
5,309
0.5
Tanzania
Tonga
Trinidad and Toba
0
Uganda
21,479
1,167
O.OS
United Kingdom
59,501
22,093
9.4
193
3,108
OJ
9,gSI
756
0.2
11,904
2,876
1.3
Vanuatu
zamhia
Zimbabwe
Note: Population, income per capita. and emissions per capita for t 999. Kyoto Protocol ratificationas at 27
August 2001.
@ Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) measured at current international dollars, as defined in Warld Bank:
2001. An international dollar represents the purchasing power of local currency converted to the equivalent
purchasing power of the US dollar in the USA.
# Included in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol, i.e., developed country Party with an emission target,
• Currently suspended from the Commonwealth, although Fiji may be re-admitted shortly.
a. EstimatEd from UNDP 2000.
b. Dam for Tuvalu from CIA 2000. GDP per capita estimateis based on 1995 figures, so therefore
excludes income from licensing of its '900' area code and '.tv' Internet domain name. Total electricity
consumption is estimatedat 3 GWband the COUDby has DO heavy industty. Accordingly, per capita
emissions are estimated at <1.0 tormes no.