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 Regional issues in disaster risk reduction, including those related to climate change adaptation, and policies related to mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into socio‐economic development planning Information Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP December 2013 Content Disaster Risks in Asia and the Pacific........................................................ 3 Recent trends and impacts of climate change ......................................... 4 Challenges to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation..... 6 Some examples of adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Asia and the Pacific ................................................................................... 9 Potential action for Asia and the Pacific ................................................ 12 2
Disaster Risks in Asia and the Pacific As the most disaster prone region in the world, building resilience is one of the most important current challenges for Asia and the Pacific. Rapid and uncontrolled urban expansion with poor land use planning and management and environmental degradation, coupled with an ever more complex society having deep interlinkages at the local, national, regional and global levels, have led many policymakers to recognize the need to move away from addressing single issues to treating economic or social sectors holistically. During the past decade, disasters affected 2.5 million people in Asia‐Pacific and resulted in almost 800,000 deaths. A person living in Asia and the Pacific is almost twice as likely to be affected by a disaster as a person living in Africa, almost six times more likely as a person living in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 30 times more likely than a person living in North America or Europe. This trend is also reflected in the region’s economic losses — in 2011, losses in Asia and the Pacific represented 80 per cent of the global disaster‐related losses, even though the region only generated a quarter of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). This risk will be further aggravated by the impacts of climate change, which is predicted to generate more frequent and extreme disasters. Combined with other shocks, such as financial crises, the development agenda of the region is poised to face serious compounding challenges with serious development implications. Studies have indicated that disasters can seriously set back development gains and erode the ability of people to recover from further successive shocks over time and climate change will worsen these existing pressures. One study covering seven Asian countries has indicated that many people already feel the potential impacts of climate change in the form of higher temperatures, lower rainfall, less predictable weather, an increase in intensity of extreme weather events and droughts, and an increase in insects and pests. Many people are already adapting by supplementing their income with other work, growing alternative crops, changing agricultural practices, migrating and changing jobs1. The present document explores the issues related to disaster risk reduction and climate change implications for development in Asia and the Pacific. Though the analysis is not exhaustive given the complexity of this issue, options for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into development will be discussed, along with potential collaborative efforts that countries may benefit from through regional dialogue and cooperation. 1
BBC Climate Asia 3
Recent trends and impacts of climate change According to the recently released fifth Assessment Report from the IPCC, warming of the climate is indisputable and unprecedented. Climate change symptoms include atmospheric and ocean warming, sea level rise, reduced snow and ice cover and increased greenhouse gas concentrations2. The report indicates that the frequency of heat waves is likely to have increased in large parts of Asia and Australia, with warmer days and nights globally, which is virtually certain to continue throughout the 21st century. Changes in extreme weather and climate events have been observed since 1950 to the extent that it's considered likely that human influence has more than doubled the chance of heat waves occurring in some locations. It's very likely that heavy rainfall will intensify and become more frequent in the mid‐latitude and wet tropical areas by the end of the century and monsoons will intensify over the 21st century, starting earlier and/or retreating later, resulting in longer monsoon seasons in many areas. Presently, it is difficult to show evidence of increased drought, though it's considered likely that this will become more prevalent by the year 21003. Despite this, drought and desertification are serious problems for Asia and the Pacific already, affecting many people's livelihoods and long term food security. Water has been previously shown to be scarce in some areas4, and with glaciers, snow cover and permafrost shrinking at alarming rates, water resources will become an even greater concern in the future. Glacial runoff and snow cover are important water resources for many countries, yet by the end of the 21st century the global glacier volume is projected to decrease by 15‐55 per cent under a best case scenario (0.3°C to 1.7°C temperature rise), or up to 85 per cent under the worst case scenario of the IPCC report, where temperatures rise between 2.6°C to 4.8°C. Global temperatures have already risen by 0.85°C between 1880 and 2012. Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 19 cm and is estimated to rise further by 26‐55 cm under the best case scenario, or to 45‐82 cm by 2100 under the worst case. It is virtually certain that this rise will continue far beyond 2100 due to the thermal expansion of the sea. In addition, the ocean surface has become slightly acidic since the industrial era which is projected to continue. Ocean acidification impacts the development and regeneration of coral reefs which are important buffers against some disasters. It may also damage marine organisms such as oysters, clams sea urchins and some plankton species, weakening the entire marine food web and placing people reliant on these marine resources for food or income at risk. 2
AR5 Summary 3 AR5 4 theme study 4
Figure 1: Main projected changes from a best and worst case scenario of climate change. model simulations, that is, 0.3°C to 1.7°C (RCP2.6), 1.1°C to 2.6°C (RCP4.5), 1.4°C to 3.1°C (RCP6.0), 2.6°C to 4.8°C (RCP8.5) 5
Challenges to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation The projected impacts of climate change have been discussed at length from the national to international level and are likely to have significant implications on the ability of member States to develop in a sustainable manner. The World Bank estimates that the cost of adapting to climate change will range from $75 billion to $100 billion per year for a temperature rise of 2 to 4 degrees, with Asia and the Pacific likely to bear the brunt of the burden. A study by the Asian Development Bank also considered the adaptation costs and benefits for a number of sectors in China, Japan, Mongolia and the Republic of Korea. The infrastructure sectors considered were power and communications, water and sewerage systems, roads and other transport, health and schools, and urban and housing. The total cost of climate proofing infrastructure during 2011‐2050 in these countries was estimated to be $23 billion/year averaged over all climate scenarios, ranging from $150 million/year in Mongolia to $11 billion/year in China. It concluded that Japan would probably receive the greatest economic benefits from climate proofing roads, housing, and urban infrastructure, while in the Republic of Korea, the greatest economic benefits would result from adapting social infrastructure (health and schools), urban infrastructure, housing, and roads to climate change. In China and Mongolia, the picture was more complex, with some infrastructure types having high costs and others large benefits. For China, the net benefits of adaptation were negative for all categories of infrastructure except roads5. The study concluded that in aggregate and over all climate scenarios considered, waiting for the need to change infrastructure was more likely to be less costly than adapting to climate change. They also concluded that richer countries were more likely to adapt than poorer ones, simply because the economic loss will be greater as their exposed assets are more vulnerable. However, the conclusions raise an important core point in the climate change debate ‐ that of economic versus non‐economic loss value6. In arguments for climate change mitigation and adaptation, loss and damage are often reflected in economic terms as they are easier to quantify. However, non‐economic losses should not be overlooked. Some, such as the loss of human life, is openly counted when a disaster strikes, while others such as a reduction in biodiversity, destruction of items of cultural significance, the loss of sovereign territory or water resources due to inundation and salt intrusion, are much harder to quantify. Despite a cost‐benefit analysis attempted for some countries mentioned above, disasters and a growth in their intensity and/or frequency due to climate change have considerable potential to undo many development gains which cannot be effectively quantified through economic means. 5
ADB 2013 6 ADB 2013 6
According to the Asia Pacific Disaster Report, the succession of disasters that struck Pakistan in the form of an earthquake in 2005, Cyclone Yemyin in 2007, flooding in 2010 and again in 2011 seriously affected the country's GDP and development trajectory7. Figure 2: Country Development Scenarios without and with disasters Though it's difficult to establish the link between disasters and the impact of achieving the MDGs, some case studies do provide insights into this. In 2007, Cyclone Sidr struck Bangladesh causing $1.67 billion in damage. Damage and losses in the social sector, such as the destruction of schools and health centers, affected education, child mortality and health related MDGs. Damage in the productive sector set back efforts to reduce extreme poverty and hunger. Likewise, education suffered in Pakistan after the various disasters due to the collapse of many schools, the loss of teachers and the use of the remaining schools to house displaced people, resulting in a drop in primary school enrolment. A key challenge in the argument relating to climate change is the uncertainty of certain scenarios, the long lag‐time between cause and effect, and economic modeling methods that may not adequately account for non‐economic losses. Just as we are now feeling the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions released 50 to 100 years ago, our actions now will have implications far beyond the next 100 years. This creates a picture of uncertainty and hesitation for planners who need to weigh up investing in development options with immediate benefits and investing in those that may significantly benefit future generations. In addition, there can be an underlying assumption that the world will be richer in the future and therefore able to manage the additional damage caused by climate change. From a 7 APDR 2012 7
purely economic perspective, if the investment in climate change mitigation or adaptation pays less than other investments then they are less attractive. Eventually however, countries will adapt to climate change in one way or another. The economic issue is: "should countries investment upfront in climate proofing (ex‐ante adaption), which requires them to make assumptions about what the future climate will be, or by spending money after the actual climate outcome is known (ex‐post adaption)?" The moral (social and environmental) issue is: "how do you value the human lives that may be saved through ex‐ante adaptation or the ecosystem services underlying our economies and livelihoods that may be lost through inaction?". This is an argument that underlies disaster risk reduction as well as climate change. It is a cognitive barrier facing many policymakers. Though many agree that prevention is better than a cure, unfortunately most policymakers focus only on events that have recently happened, such as an earthquake or cyclone, but over time memories fade and people seldom give weight to the needs of future generations. In addition, people tend to underestimate the extent of their ignorance of an issue and the uncertainty, or likely hazards, in the world they live, yet overestimate their ability to predict the future. Policymakers are particularly likely to fall victim to the wisdom of hindsight. They know they will be blamed for decisions that work out badly, but get little credit for successful planning that may prevent a catastrophic event. During a recent expert group meeting on "Strategies towards building resilience to disasters in Asia and the Pacific"8, participants discussed various barriers to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation that include the followings: Lack of evidence‐based information: There is clear need for evidence‐based resilience to effectively plan and budget for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Effective planning and budgeting for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation requires information on the long term implications of doing nothing. This should move beyond economic analysis though and capture the long term development setbacks and non‐
economic losses. Examples of methodologies that try to address these issues include environmental impact assessments, vulnerability assessments and risk analysis. Greater integration of these issues into a resilience framework is urgently needed to guide decision making. There is also the lack of other data, such as rainfall monitoring, run‐off patterns or soil conditions. These may not be adequately monitored, making it difficult to predict and adapt to potential future hazards, or when available, they may not be shared with the various organizations and/or countries that need the information or are easily accessible. The data may also not be inclusive, as often informal settlements are neglected from national databases. Furthermore, due to a lack of monitoring and observation systems, historical climate records may be insufficient while other factors, such as local adaptation strategies and social information, are often also lacking. 8
A back‐to‐back event with the third session of ESCAP Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Bangkok 26 November 2013 8
Artificial separation of institutions and mandates: the parallel tracks of institutional arrangements of disaster risk reduction in one hand and climate change adaptation in the other result in a lack of coordination and communication and competition for resources. Additionally, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction cannot be undertaken independent of the country’s development for reasons discussed earlier. They must be integrated across all sectors and levels of government and organizations. Institutional weakness and a lack of knowledge and/or capacity to do this are major barriers in the efforts of many member States to carry out this activity. Communication gap: There is a communication gap between communities and government that hinders effective adaptation to climate change. Involvement of the most appropriate stakeholders, particularly at the community level, in an equitable manner, is a major prerequisite for developing effective adaptation measures. Local communities are often the most aware of the conditions, barriers and potential solutions to the hazards they face. Local involvement should also ensure that proposed measures are gender balanced and that other potential minority groups, such as children, the elderly and people with disabilities, are taken into consideration. Gaps in cooperation: The lack of subnational, subregional and regional cooperation, including integrated water management is also a major problem for the region. Major river basins are often transboundary and, therefore, appropriate water management must account for the considerable political difficulties that are sometimes faced by countries within a catchment area. Even at the national and local level, lack of cooperation can hinder efforts of one municipality or community to reduce disaster risk if the activities of another one undermine these efforts. For example, deforestation upstream by one institution may result in more severe floods downstream. Lack basic capacities: For some countries, there is a basic lack of capacity in the form of knowledge, resources and skilled labour to effectively integrate disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and development. Policymakers are often confronted by the reality of large numbers of vulnerable people with complex circumstances. Being overwhelmed tends to induce a sense of paralysis and inhibit any incentive to take appropriate risk reduction and adaptive interventions. Some examples of adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Asia and the Pacific Adaptive responses can be technical, such as infrastructure development, managerial, such as farming or water consumption practices, policy oriented, such as developing planning or building codes, or behavioural, such as choices of food or transport. Adaptation strategies are 9
often formulated at the local or even household level and then are supported or hindered by higher level policies or institutions9. Adaptation measures for flooding, for instance, may include increasing water retention areas, such as dams or natural wetlands, improving urban development or redesigning infrastructure to improve urban drainage and allow the flow of water through urban areas without unduly damaging infrastructure. For storm surges and severe storms, afforestation and coastal ecosystem maintenance helps provide a buffer to coastal areas. Early warning systems and cyclone shelters help protect vulnerable populations during the most extreme events, though ultimately retrofitting and redesigning buildings, including improving local building codes, will do more to withstand the impacts of severe storms. Rainwater harvesting and efficient use of water, integrated watershed management, utilizing traditional and local knowledge and improving surveillance and monitoring of water and other natural resource use and quality are some key strategies for tackling increased drought uncertainty. For the coastal areas of China, Japan, Mongolia and the Republic of Korea, the economic damage to the four countries is estimated to amount to $55 billion/year between 2010 and 2050 without adaptation. This damage is projected to be reduced by 99 per cent if adaptation measures were applied. The vast majority of the climate change adaptation costs are due to dike construction, followed by dike maintenance, port upgrades, and beach nourishment. These adaptation costs were estimated to range from $1.2 to $6.8 billion/year across the various scenarios. In addition, without adaptation, sea‐level rise could result in the forced migration of 1 million people from 2010‐2050 in China, with associated costs of $150 billion10. In Nepal, considerable investment is being made to improve community‐based disaster management. The short‐term aims of the national programme are information gathering and map drawing, while over the long term, the main objective is to limit the negative effects of a potential increase in floods due to rising temperatures. Investment will be made in forest and ecosystem management for supporting innovation, water resource management and clean energy supply. In addition, considerable investment will be directed towards enhancing climate smart urban settlements and adapting climate change in public health. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Nepal aims to improve community‐based adaptation through the integrated management of agriculture, water, forest and biodiversity. Enhancing adaptive capacities for vulnerable communities through improved agricultural techniques and access to services related to agricultural development should stimulate innovation in the agriculture sector11. Since 1994 Viet Nam has been working on restoring coastal mangrove forests which are important buffers against some disasters such as storm surges and erosion. An analysis of the costs and benefits of this activity found that not only did it substantially reduce the impact of 9 Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Climate Change Adaptation for Water Management in a Green Economy (Bangkok, United Nations, 2013). 10 ADB 2013 11 Nepal, Ministry of Environment, National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change (NAPA) (Kathmandu, 2010). Available from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/npl01.pdf. 10
disasters, it also enhanced community livelihoods by creating new income and food options. The overall cost of the project was approximately $8.8 million but it directly benefited 350,000 people and indirectly another 2 million. Savings from dyke management amounted to $80,000 but avoided damage from disasters equated to approximately $15 million. Viet Nam has also changed the sowing dates of crops, begun switching to drought‐tolerant and salinity‐tolerant crops and begun switching to rice‐fish cultivation. The total cost of this adaptation has been calculated to be $210 million per year, but should avoid losses of between 1.3 and 1.6 per cent of the GDP12. Similar strategies for agriculture have been proposed for Indonesia, along with the construction of seawalls to protect against sea level rise and storm surges. The estimated costs are high at about $5 billion per year up to 2020, but the expected losses should be reversed by 2050 and improve the GDP by 1.6 per cent by 2100 with only 0.12 per cent of GDP expended to maintain these measures13. Bangladesh is one of the world’s most exposed countries to climate changes, suffering from frequent monsoon floods and tropical cyclones. The country has invested more than $10 billion over the past three decades into public awareness and reducing public vulnerability to hazards by integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into multiple sectoral development plans. The investment has resulted in a significant decline in disaster losses; however, more funds must be allocated for this purpose to keep up with changing climate scenarios. Due to likely climate change impacts, the adaptation costs for flood and storm threats are estimated to be twice as large as the costs would be if climate change were not a concern. The total additional investment for adapting to tropical cyclones and storm surges up to 2050 is estimated to be $2.5 billion, with a $50 million annual maintenance cost. In addition, adaptation for inland flooding is estimated to cost $2.7 billion with an annual maintenance of $54 million.14. Small island developing States are adapting to climate change and reducing disaster risks through infrastructure protection, the construction of coastal polders, coral protection which helps reduce storm impacts and the introduction of salt resistant plants and fish, which helps combat intrusion during storms and sea level rise. Faced with an estimated loss of between $103.4 million and $212.4 million, depending on rainfall scenario projections for the country15, Samoa has adopted a key strategy to limit the damages to buildings and infrastructure caused by high speed winds and strong precipitation. The revision of design standards and associated planning increases resilience to these types of natural hazards. Design standards for storms are developed based on scenarios of the likely frequency of a storm of that severity returning, with the longer return periods indicating more severe storms. Comparing storms that are likely to occur every 10 years versus 50 years, shows that designing for the longer period reduces the likely impact of climate change by 80‐
12 World Bank, Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change ‐ Vietnam (Washington, World Bank, 2010). 13 Asian Development Bank, The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: a Regional Review (Manila, ADB, 2009). Available from www.adb.org/sites/default/files/economics‐climate‐change‐se‐asia.pdf. 14 World Bank, Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (Washington, World Bank, 2010). 15 Op.cit. 11
90 per cent16. Moreover, despite an initial increase in adaptation costs, the long‐term annual expenses for addressing climate change will be lower than staying with the 10‐year standard currently used. The small island State of Kiribati is expanding its climate change adaptation measures across the whole country, with a focus on the sectors most vulnerable to disasters. The measures entail improving the water supply, coastal management protection, strengthening laws for reducing coastal erosion and population settlement planning to reduce personal risks. An estimated $10 million‐$11 million will be needed to carry out these measures. Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation interventions need to be tailored to the specific country and local circumstances and supported by institutions that are well informed and policies that are flexible. Numerous studies indicate that not planning for future climate change threats may be cheaper in the short term, but the risk over the long term is that if adaptation work is inadequate, more money and time will need to be invested to rectify the situation. Potential action for Asia and the Pacific Some potential solutions were discussed during the meeting on "Strategies towards building resilience to disasters in Asia and the Pacific", including some practical measures that could be undertaken by countries alone, collectively or through other international organizations. Regional strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into development. While the need for mainstreaming has been widely acknowledged the actual practice varies one country from the other. This requires an analysis at the national level of the weaknesses and barriers to doing this effectively, but also requires a means to justify expenditure and monitor the effectiveness of policies. In this regard, building an evidence based approach to planning will not only require statistics and disaster data, but also a deeper analysis and measurement technique for resilience which goes beyond economic analysis and considers the social and environmental implications of inaction. Governments need regional principles, good practices and toolkits as references when devising their own national mainstreaming strategies. Building greater communication between institutions and tackling conflicting mandates is also necessary. Strong political leadership will be needed to overcome some cognitive barriers in long term planning and investment and to encourage greater coordination between institutions. Communication and stakeholder involvement also needs to include all levels of government and the communities themselves to be able to measure the effectiveness of policies. Adaptive governance is a means by which communities and institutions are sufficiently flexible to respond to sudden shocks and change to different circumstances. It 16 Op.cit. 12
requires an integrated, forward‐looking analysis of activities and active communication between all stakeholders. Governments can leverage one another under the auspices of regional cooperation platforms. This will open up the opportunity for adopting and replicating good practices. In this regard, good practices of building resilience may be compiled and upgraded into regional norms of practice focusing on the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, including common factors such risk assessment, risk reduction interventions, community‐based disaster and climate risk management. In addition, regular meetings between experts at the regional and sub‐regional level may help. For some countries, leveraging international organizations and expertise to help build their limited capacity will be needed. Regional cooperation, particularly for technical issues such as early warning systems, information services and space applications for disaster risk reduction are more cost effective than individual countries attempting to undertake activities alone. Regional cooperation is also critical for creating the multiplying effects of the resources and solutions to transboundary problems. Strategic positioning of Asia Pacific perspectives in the next phase of global policy avenues also play crucial roles in addressing the issues of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. As the international community is gearing up to transition to the second phase of the Hyogo Framework for Action, and from the Millennium Development Goals to the Post‐
2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, Asia Pacific countries would benefit from regional common perspectives and platforms to strengthen their own individual national interests towards building resilience from the risks of disasters and effects of climate change. 13