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Climate Change (aka Global Warming) Is it real or a hoax? Is Al Gore or Michael Crichton right? Dr. Bruce A. Wielicki NASA Langley Research Center VIMS Public Lecture Series June 5, 2008 There are many ways to view the Earth….. With different stories to tell…. Where can I get good information? • The three laws of solid climate change information: IPCC, IPCC, IPCC. • What is the IPCC? – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – An international volunteer effort by 1000s of scientists: climate, economics, technology – Assess climate change every 5 to 6 years – Evaluate the entire scientific journal literature (only peer reviewed published journal results used) – 3 reports (~ 1000 pages each) • The Physical Science Basis (Working Group 1) • Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (WG2) • Mitigation (WG3) – International science peer review by 1000s scientists – Only the Policymaker Summaries (20 page) are debated word for word with government reps (usually "softened") What Should I be Skeptical Of? • Any individual scientist: myself included. – Will not have the depth to undertand the whole climate problem – Vast majority of earth scientists endorse IPCC. • • • • Internet rants of any sorts (pro or con) Internet articles from any individual (scientist or not) Most Newspaper/TV/Radio media (untrained reporters) Michael Crichton's "State of Fear": poor science understanding (grade of "D" to "F") • You CAN trust statements from major scientific organizations (and they ALL endorse IPCC): – National Academy of Sciences – American Geophysical Union (~ 10,000 earth scientists) – American Association for the Advancement of Science (~ 10 million scientists) Climate System Energy Balance Global surface temperature change 1850-2005 IPCC 2007 IPCC, 2007 Human Influence on Climate Carbon Dioxide Trends: 100yr lifetime Methane Trends Sulfate Trends Global Temperature Trends From M. Prather University of California at Irvine Human Radiative Forcing of Earth's Energy Balance & Climate 1750-2005 IPCC, 2007 How does the Earth Respond? Forces Acting On the Earth System Earth System Response IMPACTS Feedback Of the total forcing of the climate system, 40% is due to the direct effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and 60% is from feedback effects, such as increasing concentrations of water vapor as temperature rises. What do physical climate models predict the change should be? Natural Forcings Cannot Explain Observations IPCC, 2007 Natural Forcings: Solar, Volcanic Eruptions Human Forcings: CO2, Methane, Aerosols, Ozone, Land change Climate Model Predictions: Add Human Forcing Natural Forcings And Human Forcings Do Explain Observations IPCC, 2007 Natural Forcings: Solar, Volcanic Eruptions Human Forcings: CO2, Methane, Aerosols, Ozone, Land change What do climate models predict regional change should be? IPCC, 2007 Global Temperature Predictions Uncertainty in climate sensitivity Uncertainty in future emissions IPCC, 2001 Global Temperature Predictions IPCC, 2007 The Ice Ages: Temperature, Sea Level Sea Level varies by 100m (300ft) from glacial to Interglacial periods Paleo data used to estimate radiative energy climate forcing (doubled CO2 = 4 W/m2 Climate Model uses paleo forcing to predict temperature change and compares well to Paleo temperature data. Hansen, 2007 Common Climate Myth #1 Its just natural variability like glacial periods! - glacial periods take 100,000 years: not 100 - glacial periods are forced by earths orbit around the sun: its tilt (how strong the seasons are) and the earths elliptical orbit (whether northern or southern hemisphere is closer to the sun in summer - these natural variations would take us to the next ice age in 50,000 years or so. - our CO2 fossil fuel emissions will equal the energy forcing of the glacial cycle in the < 100 years: 1,000 times faster forcing of climate than glacial cycles but of similar magnitude. Fact: we are accidentally "geo-engineering" our own planet. Predicted Sea Level rise from 1990 to 2100 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity Uncertainty in future emissions IPCC, 2001 Climate Model Sea Level Predictions Sea level rise continues for centuries: Long after atmospheric temperature stabilizes IPCC, 2001 Sea Level Rise of 4 meters = 12 ft, Peninsula IPCC: 1 to 11ft ultimate sea level rise from ocean water thermal expansion, depending on 2000-2100 emissions. Much larger rise if ice sheet losses: caused 12 to 18 ft sea level rise when poles were warmer 125,000 years ago. What about rainfall? Can Climate Models Predict It? Winter: Dec/Jan/Feb Summer: Jun/Jul/Aug Obs Models 3 mm/day = 3.5 inches per month = typical for Virginia IPCC, 2007 What do climate models predict for Rainfall Change From Current to 2090-2099 Wet gets wetter, Dry gets drier Winter: Dec/Jan/Feb Summer: Jun/Jul/Aug IPCC, 2007 Change is given in percent of current rainfall climatology Colored regions where at least 2/3 of climate models agreed Stippled regions are where 90% of climate models agreed Color shown is the average of all climate model predictions What is Climate? • Climate is the long term average of weather. – 14-day weather prediction limit: but no known limit to climate prediction. – Weather data accuracy is 1 degree, but climate accuracy is 0.1 degree: a factor of 10 tougher measurement. Common Climate Myth #2 We can't predict weather 5 days from now! How can possibly predict climate 100 years out? - Weather is driven by dynamics: inherently chaotic - Climate is driven by energetics: more constrainted physics - YOU already know how to predict climate 6 months out better than the weatherman can predict 5 days out - How different is the Gloucester average summer daytime high than the winter daytime high? This climate difference is driven by energetics: more sun in the summer than winter. Fact: climate is inherently more predictable than weather. The longer the time average the more predictable it becomes (month, year, decade) What is a computer model of the climate system? Major Climate System Elements Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Chemistry Water & Energy Cycle Coupled Chaotic Nonlinear Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics How do we use observations to test and improve climate models? NASA Has Engaged in Earth Science From the Very Beginning TIROS IX mosaic, February 13, 1965 Earth View From MODIS on the Terra Spacecraft 2001 Vegetation from MODIS on Terra Summer, 2001 Carbon Monoxide MOPPITT On Terra April & October 2000 Unprecedented Accuracy of new EOS Radiation Data What are the IPCC Conclusions? • "Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many 1000s of years" • "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal (>99% certain) and is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level." "The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 meters sea level rise" (I.e. 12 to 18 ft). "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90% certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" • • • "Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks" IPCC Policymakers Summary: The Physical Science Basis, Feb 2007 What can we do about it? • Buy more fuel efficient cars. Go from 18mpg (e.g. suv) to 50mpg (e.g. prius). This will also spur future even more efficient cars. • Change from incandescent light bulbs to compact floursescents (they use 1/3 to 1/4 the electricity and therefore carbon dioxide). These payback in months to a year at most. When you change refrigerators, air conditioning compressors, heat pumps, gas furnaces: buy the most energy efficient ones that can pay you back in 10 years or less. No net cost, but does require planning. Have an energy audit of your house to see where you could save energy and still be paid back in 5 to 10 years. • • • • Most in U.S. could cut energy use 50% through efficiency Average U.S. household emits 50,000 lbs of CO2 per year – 1 gallon of gasoline emits ~ 20 lb of CO2 – 1 Kilowatt-Hr of electricity (~ 10 cents) emits ~ 2 lb of CO2 • • Stabilizing CO2 requires ~ 60 to 80% reduction in fossil fuel use Develop and use renewable energy (wind, solar) • Ethanol currently uses as much CO2 as it saves What can we do about it? • Develop carbon storage methods (e.g. pump into ground) • Narrow the uncertainties (factor of 3) by improving climate science – Still have no designed climate observing system – Still have no climate agency (job is ~ size of NASA) – Have a weak collection of 12 agencies all of whom have different missions with higher priority: climate science is lost in the cracks. – Amount of warming by 2100 is still uncertain to factor of 3: 2C to 6C (4F to 11F) – Amount of sea level rise by 2100 could be 1ft to greater than 4ft. • Are we capable as a society of global action with 10 to 50 year planning? – Start early on carbon cap & trade or carbon taxes and then every 5 to 10 years review progress of economics, renewable energy technologies, and accuracy of climate science predictions: then adjust the strategy. – Don’t wait until everyone in the world agrees: it will be too late. – IPCC economics reports estimate only 1% of global GDP total cost to solve over the next 50 years: but only if we start now. “Nature is a mutable cloud which is always and never the same”. - Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882) “Man masters nature not by force, but by understanding.” - Jacob Bronowski, 1956