Download Protecting Food Security of Mekong River Basin through Climate Change Adaptation A Regional Collaborative Effort – MRC Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative

Protecting Food Security of Mekong River Basin
through Climate Change Adaptation
A Regional Collaborative Effort –
MRC Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative
For Regional Workshop on Climate Change and Food Security
In ASEAN+3 Countries
Beijing, China, 29-31 March 2011
by Dr VITHET Srinetr and Dr KIEN Tran-Mai
Environment Division
Mekong River Commission Secretariat
Vientiane, Lao PDR
Contents

Background
Climate Change and development challenges in the
Lower Mekong Basin
– Some evidences of climate changes and its impact on
food security
 MRC Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative –
A Regional collaborative effort on adaptation
– CCAI approach, outcomes, outputs : how it is in line with
FAO approach
– Key on-going CCAI activity; demonstration sites
– A focus of MRC CCAI – Food security
–
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Ways Forward
2
The context: Key challenges
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Projected population & socio-economic growth will double
current food demand by 2050 => to meet this challenge in
poor countries, we need to increase crop yields by 40 %,
net irrigation by 40-50 %, and 100-200 million ha
additional cultivation land;
For Mekong region, not much potential for increases in
rainfed & irrigated land, so we need to focus on improving
agricultural water and land productivity
Leading sectors defining food security of Mekong region Agriculture, Fisheries and Aquaculture, and Water
Resources are highly dependent on climate variability
and change and natural ecosystems, and significantly
affected by any changes or shift in those systems.
Floods & droughts, saline intrusion & non-sustainable
development activities will have severe impacts on those
key sectors defining food security in Mekong region
Climate change impacts on
Lower
Mekong
Basinon river flow
MRC-CSIRO 2010:
Projection
and impacts

Temperature increases about 0.9 C by 2050, more in the
northern part;
 Sea Level Rise & serious saline intrusion in Mekong Delta
 Under CC, annual river flow increases 6-16% (in average 211% and 18-40% in wet and dry season, respectively)
 Development may increase river flow in dry season by 3060% but reduce wet season flow 8-17%
Previous study by CSIRO (Eastham et al., 2008):
 Dry season precipitation: increase in the North & decrease
in the South of the basin; strong water stress in some areas
(e.g. North-Eastern Thailand & Tonle Sap)
 Increase in flooding in all parts of the basin, especially
downstream
 Uncertainties: extreme events, impacts on ecosystems,
livelihood and food security, modeling methods
4
Climate change and development
challenges in lower Mekong
-
Most of the negative impacts will
affect all Mekong countries, will
overlay to and combined with the
impacts of rapid development to the
environment and people livelihood,
especially food security
-
Need for both regional strategy and
effective adaptation practice and
actions which address the specific
needs at national and local levels
-
MRC CCAI has an important role to
consolidate different approaches,
bring the regional concerns to each
of the member countries and the
local communities
What are climate change impacts in
the Lower Mekong basin?
- Intensification of existing challenges: more frequent
-
-
and intensive extreme events (flood, drought, saline
intrusion etc.)
This will affect natural and socio-economic systems
and development; livelihoods of people, especially
the poor & marginal groups (women, children &
elders, ethnic minorities)
Most likely impacted: Wetland & biodiversity in
Mekong flood-plain; Fisheries & Agriculture
The Mekong Delta & its coastal areas: one of the
most vulnerable areas with specific impacts of sea
level rise, land loss, saline intrusion and more
disasters
CC and Development Impacts
on Lower Mekong basin: Food security
Fisheries and Flooding:
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An empirical model to predict fish biomass respond to
future flooding patterns under CC and Development.
CC increase flood indices but less than 5% significance,
similar to Development.
Flood indices and fish biomass will not be more variable
under CC and Development compared to baseline
Increase in dry season’s water level under Development
and CC would have little discernable benefit to fish
survival and ultimately biomass
More studies on impacts of Development and CC to fish
migration are needed.
7
CC and Development Impacts
on Lower Mekong basin: Food security
Agricultural Productivity:
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With current planting date, A2 may increase rain-fed rice yield by 1028% in Lao, 8-17% in Thailand, and varied by -6 to 6% in Cambodia
and -2 to 11% in Mekong Delta
Yield increase is higher in A2 while yield decrease is higher in B2
High variation in yield from year to year indicates higher uncertainty of
the climatic variables.
Food security of the basin is unlikely to be affected by the increased
population, and the impact of CC. There is even potential to maintain
rice export in the future. **argument by CO2 increase**
The impacts on productivity due to extreme events and natural
disaster posed by climate condition are not included in the study even
though these conditions could have significant adverse effect to the
agricultural yields.
Need more studies on impacts of Sea Level Rise on productivity and
food security
8
MRC Climate Change and
Adaptation Initiative (CCAI)
A collaborative regional initiative of Lower Mekong
Basin countries aiming to support the countries in
adapting to the impacts and new challenges of
climate change through improved planning,
implementation and learning
 Where:
 Lower Mekong Basin – 4 Member Countries
 Involve the Upper Mekong partners: China

and Myanmar
CCAI Phasing:
 Long-term initiative (with three 5-years
phases, up to 2025)
 Linked into the cycle MRC’s Strategic
Planning process
The CCAI GOAL
“An economically prosperous, socially just,
environmentally sound Mekong River Basin responsive
and adapting to the challenges induced by climate
change”
The OBJECTIVE
“Climate change adaptation planning and implementation
is guided by improved strategy and plans at various
levels and in priority locations throughout the Lower
Mekong Basin”
SCOPE
• Basin wide integrated approach consistent with IWRM & the
MRC 1995 Agreement, focusing on CC impact & vulnerability
assessment; adaptation planning and practical implementation
in priority locations within the LMB.
10
CCAI Outcomes and Outputs
Climate Change
Adaptation Planning
and Implementation
§ Methods and tools for assessment and adaptation planning and Climate Change
Database for the Mekong Basin
§ Demonstration site/project for each member country for implementation of
adaptation activities at local level
§ Basin-wide demonstration activities for adaptation in key sectors or transboundary
issues
§ Lesson learned of demonstration activities for replication and upscaling in local,
sector and national development planning
Improved Capacity to
Manage and Adapt to
Climate Change
§ Institutional capacity strengthened in policy making and planning for climate change
adaptation in LMB countries
§ Enhancement of capacity in using methods and tools for adaptation planning and
implementation
§ Enhancement of capacity in monitoring/reporting the climate change and adaptation
in the region and The Mekong Panel of Climate Change (MPCC) is established
Strategies and Plans
for Climate Change
Adaptation
§ Regional and National policy frameworks to facilitate and guide adaptation and
implementation
§ System of monitoring and reporting on the status of climate change and adaptation
§ CCAI communication plan for raising awareness, sharing information and
knowledge on climate change and adaptation
Regional Exchange,
Collaboration and
Learning
§ Agreements and productive collaboration with CCAI core implementing partners on
climate change adaptation related issues
§ Institutional arrangement and implementation of CCAI
§ Regular monitoring and evaluation and reporting to MRC Joint Committee and
Council, Donor and Core Implementing partners of CCAI progress with revision and
improvement
11
§ Fund raising for the periods of 2011-2015 and 2016-2025
MRC CCAI Approach
Adaptation
planning steps
Development
planning levels
Development
sectors
• Baseline assessment
• Projecting climate and
hydrological change
• Socio-economic
projections
• Impact assessment
• Vulnerability
assessment
• Developing adaptation
options
• Integrating with
development plans
• Basin wide
• Subbasin/transboundary
• National
• Sub-national – eg
river basins
• Province
• Cities/towns
• Local government
• Community
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•
Water supply
Water sanitation
Energy
Transport
Agriculture
Fisheries
Forestry
Public health
Tourism
FAO stresses the importance of addressing impacts and responses across
Sectors and scales for upscaling adaptation measures.
MRC CCAI
Adaptation Planning Process
Scoping the Adaptation Strategy/Project
Stakeholder Engagement and Capacity Building
Scoping the
adaptation project
 Vulnerability
assessment
 Identification of
adaptation options
and strategy
 Implementation of
adaptation options
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
Impacts
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Identification of Adaptation Options and
Development of Adaptation Strategy
Monitoring and Evaluation of Adaptation Implementation

Implementation of Adaptation Options
FAO also recommended steps for selecting adaptation options and designing13
Strategies to operationalize them in line with MRC CCAI adaptation planning.
A key on-going CCAI activity Local Demonstration Activities
Purpose:
 Raise awareness and build capacity of climate
change issue in the sub-national and local level
through adaptation planning process
 Implement the possible adaptation options to
strengthen communities’ resilience
 Synthesize the adaptation strategy/policy at the
local level and integrate into national level
 Provide lesson learned on climate change
adaptation that could be replicated or upscaled.
14
CCAI Demo Sites

Cambodia
–
Prey Veng (Peam Ro,
Pream Chor, Preah Sdach and
Me Sang Districts)

Lao PDR
–
Savannakhet
(Champhone
District)

Thailand
–
Nam Yang Basin
(Tributary to Chi River)

Vietnam
–
Kien Giang province
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Climate Change Adaptation Demonstration Site
Champhone District of Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR
“To increase resilience and adaptive capacity of authorities and local
community through the process of assessment, awareness raising, and
introduction/implementation of adaptation options”
Key activities:
 Supporting capacity building training and climate change
mainstreaming in local, provincial, and national planning
and decision making process
 Conducting study of potential climate change impacts,
risks and vulnerability assessment.
 Raising awareness of climate change and its impacts.
 Demonstrating implementation of adaptation options (e.g.
flood tolerant rice varieties, local irrigation)
16
Climate change adaptation option:
Flood Resistant Rice Experiment
in the target villages
at Champhone, Savannakhet, MRC CCAI demostration site
Lao PDR (2010)
17
A Focus of MRC CCAI
Protecting food security

Strengthening climate resilience and
managing climate change for vulnerable
Mekong people by enabling to;
Protecting existing livelihoods systems
– Diversify their sources of food and income
– Change their livelihood strategies
– Migrate if there is no adaptation option
–
A Focus of MRC CCAI
Protecting food security
- Developing Mekong climate change adaptation
strategies for food security by an integration of:
• ecosystems and natural resources management
(biodiversity, ecosystem services);
• systems of agricultural production (harvests,
livestock, fishing, water, forests);
• infrastructures (irrigation & flood management;
• legal and institutional structures and institutional
abilities (decision-making, mechanisms, legislation);
• political and risk planning, monitoring, analysis and
management of the plans.
A Focus of MRC CCAI
Protecting food security

Promoting climate change adaptation in
agricultural sector which is the key for food
security such as:
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Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety
Improved fertilizer use
Improved rice farming
Increased use of conservation agriculture
Crop insurance
Bioenergy
In agriculture sector, Adaptation &
Mitigation can go hand-in-hand
A Focus of MRC CCAI
Protecting food security

To achieve MDGs on food security and poverty
alleviation of Mekong people through strengthening
climate change adaptation;
– Protecting food supplies (fisheries, agriculture
production) and people livelihoods (dependent to
Mekong water uses)
– Avoiding disruptions or declines in regional (Mekong)
and local food supplies due to climate change impacts
(flood and drought)
– Protecting Mekong key ecosystems (wetlands,
croplands) ensuring environmental services
MRC CCAI focus is in alignment with FAO’s strategic approach.
Ways Forward: change the future now!
• Action now – dealing with climate variability with vision to
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long-term climate change;
Climate Change (including variability) is just one of the
factors affecting food security;
Adaptation should be part of broader packages (e.g.
poverty reduction);
Accelerated transition to carbon-neutral economies,
increased energy efficiency, improved management of
natural resources;
New financing mechanisms for promoting both mitigation
and adaptation in agriculture and forestry sectors;
Better use of existing technologies, best practices and
guidelines;
Broader regional collaboration with partners and member
countries;
Global Phenomenon
Regional Collaboration
Local Action
Thank you!
Mekong River Commission
Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative
http//: www.mrcmekong.org
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]