Download Climate change: effects on the Kenyan tea industry

Climate Change:
Effects on the Kenyan Tea
Industry
TEA RESEARCH FOUNDATION
TEA IN KENYA: AN IMPORTANT CASH CROP
-Source of livelihood to about 3million Kenyans and their families
-A rural based enterprise & contributes to rural poverty alleviation
-Contributes to the national economy (export earnings >1 billion $ in 2010, 4% of GDP)
-Contributes to Environmental conservation / Carbon sink/ water infiltration
-Kenya has the highest productivity efficiency in tea
Tea Enterprises are Threatened by Climate
Change
•Climate Change-A change in the state of the
climate that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer
•Is there evidence of climate change in tea
growing areas in Kenya?
•TRFK is responsible for R & D in the tea sector
 Collection and collation of weather data;
 Climate
change
detection,
monitoring,
prediction and early warning;
 Information sharing with the Tea Industry;
Significance of climate change
• Considered to be one of the most serious
threats to agriculture.
• Impacts are expected on: Environment,
Human health and pest and disease
dynamics, Food security, Economic
activities, Natural resources and Physical
Infrastructure.
• Adaptation will be necessary
Most of the Global Disasters are Hydrometeorological (Climate-related).
The frequency and intensity of disasters have increased
in the last decade
Global Disaster Trends: 1990 – 2006
El nino/La
nina
related
Droughts,
Frost, Hail
400
300
200
100
0
‘90
‘91
‘92
Geo Physical
‘93
‘94
‘95
‘96
‘97
Hydro
Meteorological
‘98
‘99
‘00
‘01
‘02
Epidemics &
Insect Infestation
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
Source: CRED
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period
Rate
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
Years /decade
25 May, 2017
Tea Research Foundation
EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
Declining Mountain Glaciers in East Africa e.g.
Melting of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers
•82 % of the icecap that crowned
the mountain Kilimanjaro when it
was first thoroughly surveyed in
1912 is now gone, and the ice is
thinning as well - by as much as a
meter in one area. According to
projections, if recession continues
at the present rate, the majority of
the glaciers on Kilimanjaro could
vanish in the next 15 years
•Same observed for Mt Kenya
INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA
• Climate change signals are now apparent in
the Kenya.
• The change signals observed include:
 temperature rises;
Decreasing rainfall and irregular trends;
 melting and retreat of the mountain
glacier at Mt Kenya;
 increasing frequency of extreme climate
events eg droughts, frost, hail etc
Annual maximum temperature trends in Kenya
-non tea areas
Annual Max Temp: Lodwar
36.5
y = 0.0317x + 34.322
35.5
35.0
34.5
34.0
33.5
Year
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
33.0
1960
Temperature ( C)
36.0
OND Rainfall Trends In Kenya
Marsabit
Nyahururu OND rainfall trend
Nyahururu
900.0
1200.0
800.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
y = -1.3197x + 336.22
500.0
600.0
y = -1.393x + 221.61
400.0
300.0
400.0
200.0
200.0
Year
Narok OND rainfall trend
800.0
Narok
700.0
500.0
y = - 0.2835x + 187.34
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
Year
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
0.0
1950
Rainfall (mm)
600.0
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1950
1956
0.0
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
0.0
1953
100.0
1961
Rainfall (OND)
700.0
Annual Rainfall Trends in a Tea Area- TRFK Kericho
3000
2800
2600
RAINFALL (mm)
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
y = -3.5827x + 2207.8
R² = 0.0267
1200
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1000
YEARS
There is an annual decrease of 4.82mm over a 52 year period.
This is a rainfall decrease of slightly more than 250mm over the period.
Rainfall Trends in a tea area (Kericho)
There is an average rainfall decrease of 65mm (R² = 0.803)
for every ten-year period.
Linear increase in soil water deficits in a tea area (Kericho)
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TEMPERATURE (0C)
Temperature Trends in a Tea Area- TRFK, Kericho
17.5
17
16.5
16
15.5
y = 0.0167x + 15.643
R² = 0.3483
15
14.5
14
YEAR
There is an annual rise of 0.0160C (R² = 0.331) over a 52 year period.
Mean Air Temperature Trends over a four Decade period in a tea growing areaTRFK, Kericho
16.6
Temperature (0C)
16.4
16.2
16
y = 0.2x + 15.508
R² = 0.8524
15.8
15.6
1969
1979
1989
1999
2009
Years
There has been an average rise of 0.20C (R² = 0.852) for every ten-year.
This is a temperature increase of 10C over the years.
Magnitude of change of Tmax. in Kenya
REGION
TREND
Western
Increase
Central
Increase
Northern
Increase
Northeastern
Increase
South Eastern Increase
Coastal strip
Increase
MAGNITUDE
0.5 - 2.1C
TEA AREAS
0.1- 0.7C
0.1- 1.3C
0.1- 1.3C
0.2- 0.6C
0.2 - 2.0C
Magnitude of change in Tmin. in Kenya
REGION
Western
Central
Northern
Northeastern
South Eastern
Coastal strip
25 May, 2017
TREND
Increase
Increase
Increase
Increase
Increase
Decrease
Tea Research Foundation
MAGNITUDE
0.8 - 2.9C
0.8 - 2.0C
0.7 - 1.8C
0.7 - 1.8C
0.7 - 1.0C
0.3 - 1.0C
TEA AREAS
RISK FROM FROST DAMAGE
25 May, 2017
Tea Research Foundation
RISK FROM HAIL DAMAGE
25 May, 2017
Tea Research Foundation
Hail incidences in tea areas West of Rift ValleyUnpredictable
25 May, 2017
Tea Research Foundation
Hail Hit Areas and Crop Losses
Effects of climate change on Tea
enterprises.
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Shifts in crop distribution.
Yield decline or increase in some catchments.
Quality decline in some catchments.
Harvest losses due to Unpredictable risks due to
increasing extreme weather events e.g. Frosts, Hail,
droughts.
Soil fertility decline and degradation/landslides due to
erosion.
Shift in disease and pest dynamics- e.g.Increase of pest
infestation in some catchments (Helopeltis, Mites) and
resurgence of some diseases like highland malaria
Loss of biodiversity and desertification
Human Conflicts over limited resources like water and
pasture
Some cultural exacerbate the impacts of global warming.
Effect of fertilizer rates on soil moisture
content
Water content decreases with increased fertilizer rates and soil depth.
Effects of Nitrogen rates on porosity
Porosity of the soil increases with increase in N rates. Control had the lowest
porosity value
Implication of high fertilizer rates- affects the water relations and gas diffusion in the
soil
Plant mortality increases with N rate during drought
Adaptation measures undertaken by Tea Sector
in Kenya
• Efficient management of soil and water resources(Precision farming and Judicious use of inputs eg Fertilizer).
• Catchment protection (planting of Bamboo).
• Environmental conservation and Control of deforestation.
• Riverbank protection.
• Sustainable management of forests- Planting of hedges and
natural barriers to forests.
• Soil Water Conservation measures and Mulching.
• Water harvesting structures (Micro-catchments).
• Growing of low water demand (drought resistant) tea
clones/varieties.
• Identification of alternate sources of energy (wind, solar,
hydro).
• Consideration of crop insurances.
• Delineation of tea areas, crop diversification and farmer
education.
25 May, 2017
Tea Research Foundation
Education of farmers on Fertilizer Utilization
What steps has Kenya taken to address the climate change
challenges?
1.) Climate Change Legislation
• Kenya has no specific law or policy touching on climate
change. However, the multi-sectoral nature of the climate
issues implies that a broad range of sector policies and
regulations such as environmental conservation, energy,
manufacturing, natural resources are of relevance
•
The “Energy Act 2006” and the “Kenya Forest Policy”
specifically provide for carbon finance activities
•
Several key documents address environmental and energy
concerns. These include, inter alia, Environmental
Management and Coordination Act of 1999 (EMCA,
1999), Energy Policy, Energy Act 2006, as well as the
Forest Act 2005
National Climate Change Focal Point (NCCFP)
Coordination of climate change activities is undertaken by the
National Climate Change Focal Point, The Focal Point is physically
located in the Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources.
Roles:
 Coordinate national climate change activities;
 Liaison with the UNFCCC Secretariat;
 Act as the secretariat to the National Climate Change Activities
Coordination Committee and the four technical working groups
CDM Designated National Authority (DNA)
NEMA (National Environment Management Authority) is the
Designated National Authority (DNA) for CDM projects in Kenya.

The principal role of the DNA is to give a Letter of Approval for
proposed CDM projects and confirm that they contribute to country’s
sustainable development
The National Climate Change Activities Coordination Committee
(NCCACC)
A technical, multi-sectoral, multi-stakeholder group, that
coordinates the activities of the Government of Kenya
on climate change.

Parliamentary Network on Renewable Energy and Climate
Change (PANERECC)
A follow up to the COP12 in 2006 was the formulation of a
(PANERECC) for purposes of creating awareness and
influencing policy making relevant for both renewable
energy and climate
National Communication to the UNFCC
Kenya completed and submitted the First National
Communication to the UNFCCC in 2002 and is currently
working on the Second
The Way Forward
Global warming will persist. Adaptation is
therefore the only option. There is thus need
for:
•
•
•
•
Preparation of sector based climate change programmes,
strategies, policies and projects.
Closer collaboration between stakeholders in resource
mobilisation to support climate change adaptation
activities within the sector.
Awareness creation and public education.
Intensification of data and information collection and
forecasting
Review of various climate change scenarios.
Analysis and/or review of available data (while
referencing to current Kenyan tea /soil map).
Analysis of current weather patterns in Tea growing
Zones.
THANK YOU