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Climate Change: Effects on the Kenyan Tea Industry TEA RESEARCH FOUNDATION TEA IN KENYA: AN IMPORTANT CASH CROP -Source of livelihood to about 3million Kenyans and their families -A rural based enterprise & contributes to rural poverty alleviation -Contributes to the national economy (export earnings >1 billion $ in 2010, 4% of GDP) -Contributes to Environmental conservation / Carbon sink/ water infiltration -Kenya has the highest productivity efficiency in tea Tea Enterprises are Threatened by Climate Change •Climate Change-A change in the state of the climate that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer •Is there evidence of climate change in tea growing areas in Kenya? •TRFK is responsible for R & D in the tea sector Collection and collation of weather data; Climate change detection, monitoring, prediction and early warning; Information sharing with the Tea Industry; Significance of climate change • Considered to be one of the most serious threats to agriculture. • Impacts are expected on: Environment, Human health and pest and disease dynamics, Food security, Economic activities, Natural resources and Physical Infrastructure. • Adaptation will be necessary Most of the Global Disasters are Hydrometeorological (Climate-related). The frequency and intensity of disasters have increased in the last decade Global Disaster Trends: 1990 – 2006 El nino/La nina related Droughts, Frost, Hail 400 300 200 100 0 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 Geo Physical ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 Hydro Meteorological ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 Epidemics & Insect Infestation ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 Source: CRED Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Years /decade 25 May, 2017 Tea Research Foundation EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING Declining Mountain Glaciers in East Africa e.g. Melting of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers •82 % of the icecap that crowned the mountain Kilimanjaro when it was first thoroughly surveyed in 1912 is now gone, and the ice is thinning as well - by as much as a meter in one area. According to projections, if recession continues at the present rate, the majority of the glaciers on Kilimanjaro could vanish in the next 15 years •Same observed for Mt Kenya INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA • Climate change signals are now apparent in the Kenya. • The change signals observed include: temperature rises; Decreasing rainfall and irregular trends; melting and retreat of the mountain glacier at Mt Kenya; increasing frequency of extreme climate events eg droughts, frost, hail etc Annual maximum temperature trends in Kenya -non tea areas Annual Max Temp: Lodwar 36.5 y = 0.0317x + 34.322 35.5 35.0 34.5 34.0 33.5 Year 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 33.0 1960 Temperature ( C) 36.0 OND Rainfall Trends In Kenya Marsabit Nyahururu OND rainfall trend Nyahururu 900.0 1200.0 800.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 y = -1.3197x + 336.22 500.0 600.0 y = -1.393x + 221.61 400.0 300.0 400.0 200.0 200.0 Year Narok OND rainfall trend 800.0 Narok 700.0 500.0 y = - 0.2835x + 187.34 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Year 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 1977 1974 1971 1968 1965 1962 1959 1956 1953 0.0 1950 Rainfall (mm) 600.0 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 1977 1974 1971 1968 1965 1962 1959 1950 1956 0.0 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 0.0 1953 100.0 1961 Rainfall (OND) 700.0 Annual Rainfall Trends in a Tea Area- TRFK Kericho 3000 2800 2600 RAINFALL (mm) 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 y = -3.5827x + 2207.8 R² = 0.0267 1200 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1000 YEARS There is an annual decrease of 4.82mm over a 52 year period. This is a rainfall decrease of slightly more than 250mm over the period. Rainfall Trends in a tea area (Kericho) There is an average rainfall decrease of 65mm (R² = 0.803) for every ten-year period. Linear increase in soil water deficits in a tea area (Kericho) 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TEMPERATURE (0C) Temperature Trends in a Tea Area- TRFK, Kericho 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 y = 0.0167x + 15.643 R² = 0.3483 15 14.5 14 YEAR There is an annual rise of 0.0160C (R² = 0.331) over a 52 year period. Mean Air Temperature Trends over a four Decade period in a tea growing areaTRFK, Kericho 16.6 Temperature (0C) 16.4 16.2 16 y = 0.2x + 15.508 R² = 0.8524 15.8 15.6 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 Years There has been an average rise of 0.20C (R² = 0.852) for every ten-year. This is a temperature increase of 10C over the years. Magnitude of change of Tmax. in Kenya REGION TREND Western Increase Central Increase Northern Increase Northeastern Increase South Eastern Increase Coastal strip Increase MAGNITUDE 0.5 - 2.1C TEA AREAS 0.1- 0.7C 0.1- 1.3C 0.1- 1.3C 0.2- 0.6C 0.2 - 2.0C Magnitude of change in Tmin. in Kenya REGION Western Central Northern Northeastern South Eastern Coastal strip 25 May, 2017 TREND Increase Increase Increase Increase Increase Decrease Tea Research Foundation MAGNITUDE 0.8 - 2.9C 0.8 - 2.0C 0.7 - 1.8C 0.7 - 1.8C 0.7 - 1.0C 0.3 - 1.0C TEA AREAS RISK FROM FROST DAMAGE 25 May, 2017 Tea Research Foundation RISK FROM HAIL DAMAGE 25 May, 2017 Tea Research Foundation Hail incidences in tea areas West of Rift ValleyUnpredictable 25 May, 2017 Tea Research Foundation Hail Hit Areas and Crop Losses Effects of climate change on Tea enterprises. • • • • • • • • • Shifts in crop distribution. Yield decline or increase in some catchments. Quality decline in some catchments. Harvest losses due to Unpredictable risks due to increasing extreme weather events e.g. Frosts, Hail, droughts. Soil fertility decline and degradation/landslides due to erosion. Shift in disease and pest dynamics- e.g.Increase of pest infestation in some catchments (Helopeltis, Mites) and resurgence of some diseases like highland malaria Loss of biodiversity and desertification Human Conflicts over limited resources like water and pasture Some cultural exacerbate the impacts of global warming. Effect of fertilizer rates on soil moisture content Water content decreases with increased fertilizer rates and soil depth. Effects of Nitrogen rates on porosity Porosity of the soil increases with increase in N rates. Control had the lowest porosity value Implication of high fertilizer rates- affects the water relations and gas diffusion in the soil Plant mortality increases with N rate during drought Adaptation measures undertaken by Tea Sector in Kenya • Efficient management of soil and water resources(Precision farming and Judicious use of inputs eg Fertilizer). • Catchment protection (planting of Bamboo). • Environmental conservation and Control of deforestation. • Riverbank protection. • Sustainable management of forests- Planting of hedges and natural barriers to forests. • Soil Water Conservation measures and Mulching. • Water harvesting structures (Micro-catchments). • Growing of low water demand (drought resistant) tea clones/varieties. • Identification of alternate sources of energy (wind, solar, hydro). • Consideration of crop insurances. • Delineation of tea areas, crop diversification and farmer education. 25 May, 2017 Tea Research Foundation Education of farmers on Fertilizer Utilization What steps has Kenya taken to address the climate change challenges? 1.) Climate Change Legislation • Kenya has no specific law or policy touching on climate change. However, the multi-sectoral nature of the climate issues implies that a broad range of sector policies and regulations such as environmental conservation, energy, manufacturing, natural resources are of relevance • The “Energy Act 2006” and the “Kenya Forest Policy” specifically provide for carbon finance activities • Several key documents address environmental and energy concerns. These include, inter alia, Environmental Management and Coordination Act of 1999 (EMCA, 1999), Energy Policy, Energy Act 2006, as well as the Forest Act 2005 National Climate Change Focal Point (NCCFP) Coordination of climate change activities is undertaken by the National Climate Change Focal Point, The Focal Point is physically located in the Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources. Roles: Coordinate national climate change activities; Liaison with the UNFCCC Secretariat; Act as the secretariat to the National Climate Change Activities Coordination Committee and the four technical working groups CDM Designated National Authority (DNA) NEMA (National Environment Management Authority) is the Designated National Authority (DNA) for CDM projects in Kenya. The principal role of the DNA is to give a Letter of Approval for proposed CDM projects and confirm that they contribute to country’s sustainable development The National Climate Change Activities Coordination Committee (NCCACC) A technical, multi-sectoral, multi-stakeholder group, that coordinates the activities of the Government of Kenya on climate change. Parliamentary Network on Renewable Energy and Climate Change (PANERECC) A follow up to the COP12 in 2006 was the formulation of a (PANERECC) for purposes of creating awareness and influencing policy making relevant for both renewable energy and climate National Communication to the UNFCC Kenya completed and submitted the First National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2002 and is currently working on the Second The Way Forward Global warming will persist. Adaptation is therefore the only option. There is thus need for: • • • • Preparation of sector based climate change programmes, strategies, policies and projects. Closer collaboration between stakeholders in resource mobilisation to support climate change adaptation activities within the sector. Awareness creation and public education. Intensification of data and information collection and forecasting Review of various climate change scenarios. Analysis and/or review of available data (while referencing to current Kenyan tea /soil map). Analysis of current weather patterns in Tea growing Zones. THANK YOU