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Science, Skepticism & Climate Change Gene Mesco, Ph.D. Dalton State College Earth Day, April 22, 2015 Weather – the current state of the atmosphere; Climate - Average or typical weather over long periods of time. Science Activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment. & Skepticism a skeptical attitude; doubt as to the truth of something. & Climate Change Science IS skepticism – until you can prove it. Data indicates that the temperature of our planet is increasing. The increases vary, and are interspersed with some areas of average decreases… 97% of scientists who have published articles in peerreviewed journals agree humans have a significant impact on climate change. W. R. L. Anderegg, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107 No. 27, 12107-12109 (21 June 2010); DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107. P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change," Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union Vol. 90 Issue 3 (2009), 22; DOI: 10.1029/2009EO030002. N. Oreskes, “Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science Vol. 306 no. 5702, p. 1686 (3 December 2004); DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618. How do we know? What are the methods? Temperature recordings How do we know? What are the methods? Temperature recordings Sea level change Proceedings from The Twelfth Session of IPCC Working Group I (WGI-12) was held from 23 to 26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) – established in 1988 How do we know? 1937 What are the methods? Temperature recordings Sea level change Glacier melt Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau, Alaska 2006 How do we know? What are the methods? Temperature recordings Sea level change Glacier melt Sea ice decrease How do we know? What are the methods? Temperature recordings Sea level change Glacier melt Sea ice decrease Ice cores Ice cores trap air at deeper levels, preserving a record of ‘old’ atmosphere. Why do we care about ice cores? Why is the climate changing? Science works by analyzing data, and generating explanations Current Hypothesis: Anthropogenic gases and the greenhouse effect are a main cause of climate change. Anthropogenic gases are some of the residues released due to human activities… In a greenhouse, or your car, heat is trapped inside. Visible light passes through, heats the interior, and the heated air and infrared red radiation can’t escape back to the environment. CO2 levels directly influence how much heat can escape from the earth to outer space. Aerosols deposited in Greenland ice So where are the ‘skeptics’? Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)2 http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ List of Worldwide Scientific Organizations (197 Scientific Organizations That Hold the Position That Climate Change Has Been Caused by Human Action) http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php U.S. agencies The following page contains information on what federal agencies are doing to adapt to climate change. http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/federal-agencies-adaptation.pdf Why oppose or try to contradict climate change? Who’s power is challenged? Who benefits from shifting away from the causes of human climate change? Follow the money! http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solut ions/fight-misinformation/global-warmingskeptic.html#.VTWqmKYywyE American Enterprise Institute – questions climate change science…. “The hundreds of poll questions that have been asked about the environment over the past forty years paint a clear picture of the evolution of Americans’ attitudes. A careful reading of them shows that both sides of the political spectrum misunderstand key elements.” “This year marks the 45th anniversary of Earth Day, and polls show that Americans are sympathetic to efforts to protect but the environment, that global warming, climate change, and the nation’s energy problems are not their top priorities.” Received $3,615,000 from ExxonMobil 1998-2012, >$1,000,000 from Koch Foundations, 2004-2011, (Factsheet: American Enterprise Institute, AEI. ) “The most prominent advocates of global warming aren’t scientists,” said Heartland’s president, Joseph Bast. “They are Charles Manson, a mass murderer; Fidel Castro, a tyrant; and Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber. Average American’s Not Alarmed over Climate H. Sterling Burnett – Energy and Environment – April 20, 2015 Received $675,000 from ExxonMobil 1997-2006, >$1,400,000 from Donors Trust (Koch Foundation)http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/feb/14/donors-trust-fundingclimate-denial-networks The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) maintains that “global climate change is inevitable” [13] http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/lega cy/assets/documents/global_warming/GlobalWarming-Skeptic-Organizations-Source-13ALEC.pdf So, if it’s inevitable, why worry…. Received $1,600,000 from ExxonMobil 1998-2012, >$850,000 from Koch Foundation, http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=10 Not the first time… Science has challenged many ‘established’ ideas over the years, and faced considerable opposition; Heliocentrism – Galileo challenged the earth as the center of the universe; Relativity –Einstein proposed a radical new view of space, time, matter, and energy; Evolution – Darwin changed views on the origins of species; Climate change – human activity can alter the entire planet…. Timelines for expert & public consensus, aligned by their dates of introduction. Lightning symbols denote organized opposition from contrarian, religious, or political groups. Citation: Phys. Today 64, 10, 39 (2011); http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.1295 Why the controversies? Galileo challenged the Roman Catholic Church, and their ‘infallibility’ doctrine that humans were the center of everything. Einstein mostly faced opposition from peers, as he refuted previous theories. This may explain why Einstein is now a popular figure, relative to the others – he only challenged other professionals. Darwin upset religious dogma, and popular belief, similar to Galileo. If the model is relevant & valid, it may be another century or so before evolution is accepted as public consensus… What to do about it? Humans make mistakes, and we can be mislead… “When did you stop taking illegal drugs?” Jim Inhofe United States Senator “In case we have forgotten, because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I ask the chair, you know what this is? It’s a snowball. And that’s just from outside here. So it’s very, very cold out.” Can we only have economic growth OR concern for the environment? Taxes from oil (% of total) What if we tax the bad stuff? (not the current policy in the U.S.) Reforming the Tax System to Promote Environmental Objectives : An Application to Mauritius ISBN/ISSN: 9781455263417/1018-5941 June 1, 2011 Ian W.H. Parry The article a by The Times, a British newspaper owned by Rupert Murdoch, suggests that because a paper by the University of Reading's Lennart Bengtsson was not published in a prestigious scientific journal, politically motivated suppression is behind the "cover-up." ( ) Nicola Gulley, the editorial director of Environmental Research Letters stated (b) that the draft paper was not published because it "contained errors" and "did not provide a significant advancement in the field." (a) http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/article4091344.ece (b) http://ioppublishing.org/newsDetails/statement-from-iop-publishing-on-story-in-the-times “When did you stop taking illegal drugs?” What’s next? Ecology (from the Greek, ‘study of the house’) studies living organisms in their physical environments, as ecosystems. We constantly need energy added to an ecosystem. The flows of chemicals, as nutrients for life, need to be in sustainable patterns. Sustainability The study of life can teach us that we need to make our ecosystem sustainable. We need to understand our place in the world. Need more information? Making Sense of Climate Science Denial New online course, starts April 28th Climate change is real, so why the controversy and debate? Learn to make sense of the science and to respond to climate change denial. What you'll learn How to recognize the social and psychological drivers of climate science denial How to better understand climate change: the evidence that it is happening, that humans are causing it and the potential impacts How to identify the techniques and fallacies that climate myths employ to distort climate science How to effectively debunk climate misinformation https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-climate-science-denial-uqxdenial101x#