Download Here - Stanford University

Global Climate Alteration: A
Survey of the Science and Policy
Implications
D. Warner North (presenter), replacing Stephen H.
Schneider,
Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Congress on Energy Policy and Climate
Alteration, Stuttgart, Germany
October 11, 2004
Website References
• Professor Stephen H. Schneider:
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/
• Dr. and Consulting Professor, D. Warner
North:
http://www.northworks.net/w_main.htm
Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) states that: “The ultimate objective of this Convention and
any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may
adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the
Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”. The Framework Convention on
Climate Change further suggests that “Such a level should be achieved
within a time frame sufficient
 to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,
 to ensure that food production is not threatened and
 to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
US National Academies Reports
• National Research Council Report, for the White House
(2001): Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key
Questions
http://books.nap.edu/catalog/10139.html
• Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, NaRC report
(1991):
http://books.nap.edu/catalog/1794.html
• Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy
Research and Development, NaRC report, 1990
http://books.nap.edu/catalog/1600.html
National Academies, 2001
Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of
human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface
ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The
changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due
to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part
of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Humaninduced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to
continue through the 21st century. Secondary effects are suggested by
computer model simulations and basic physical reasoning. These
include increases in rainfall rates and increased susceptibility of semiarid regions to drought. The impacts of these changes will be critically
dependent on the magnitude of the warming and the rate with
which it occurs.
- First paragraph of report prepared in three weeks at the request of
the Bush White House (p. 1, http://books.nap.edu/catalog/10139.html)
Books on Climate Variability
Brian M. Fagan,
– The Long Summer: How Climate Changed
Civilization (12,000 years ago – present)
– The Little Ice Age (1000 years ago – present)
Range of Expert Opinion
Source:
Morgan
and Keith,
ES&T,
1995 (on
Schneider
Website)
Impacts on California
“Emissions pathways, climate change, and
impacts on California,” by Stephen H.
Schneider and 18 co-authors, Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences,
101(34):12422-12427, August 24, 2004
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/contents/full/101/34/12422
US Government: Climate Change
Science Program
• Director: James R. Mahoney
• Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate
Change Science Program for Fiscal Years
2004 -2005, August 2004:
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ocp2
004-5/default.htm
CCSP Report, Aug 2004
“Climate variability and change can profoundly influence
social and natural environments throughout the world, with
consequent impacts on natural resources and industry that
can be large and far-reaching. … Recent advances in
climate science are providing information for
decisionmakers and resource managers to better anticipate
and plan for potential impacts of climate variability and
change. Further advances will serve the nation by
providing improved knowledge to enable more
scientifically informed decisions across a broad array of
climate-sensitive sectors.”
- “Our Changing Planet,” p. 42
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ocp2004-5/ocp2004-5.pdf
From Climate Change Science to
Policy
• Policy decisions must be made under uncertainty!
• Benefits from reducing reliance on oil and coal:
– reduce CO2 emissions and rate of atmospheric increase
– reduce demand, and therefore price, for oil
– reduce air pollution and health impacts from coal
combustion
– reduce turmoil in Middle East
• Industrialization and economic growth of China,
India, etc. will increase demand for oil, CO2
emissions
1991 National Academies Report
Recommendation
“Despite the great uncertainties, greenhouse
warming is a potential threat sufficient to justify
action now. Some current actions could reduce
the speed and magnitude of greenhouse warming;
others could prepare people and natural systems of
plants and animals for future adjustments to the
conditions likely to accompany greenhouse
warming.”
National Research Council, 1991, p. 72
http://books.nap.edu/catalog/1794.html