Download Session 2 - Eionet Forum

Risks in future water use, energy
development and environment in the
western Balkan region due to climate
change
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
Temperatura zraka na Kredarici
statistično značilno narašča
CO2 CH4 N2O concentrations in the
atmosphere are still rising…
Summer temperature in Europe
Barriopedro et al., 2011
EEA
www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/
Main drought events in Europe, 2000–2009
+ 2012
Recurrence of flood events in Europe
(EEA, 2011)
ENVSEC, 2012
ENVSEC, 2012
3 classes of water problems in
Balkan
• too little water
• too much water
• water pollution
Can (and will) be exacerbated
by climate change
B1
A1
Hyper individualism
Business class
Creative societies
Markets first
Global sustainability
Market World
‘The end of
history’
Changing course
New global age
Cybertopia
Policy first
Just do it
Shared responsabilities
The hundred flowers
Ecologically driven
Have & have- nots
Over the edge
Sustainability first
Regional stewardship
New Empires
Security first
Provincial enterprise
‘Clash of
civilizations’
‘Our Common
Future ‘
Prism
Transformed World
Cultural pluralism
Great transitions
‘No
Logo’
Turbulent neighbourhoods
Change without progress
Fortress World
Voluntary simplicity
Battlefield
Barbarization
A2
Tribal society Local stewardship
B2
EEA, 2011
ENVSEC, 2012
Source: Knutti & Sedlacek (2012)
Environmental State and Pressures
CO2 concentrations
1 000
CO2 concentration (ppm)
900
3 - 6°C by 2100
800
700
600
500
450 ppm
400
300
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline
projection using IMAGE model suite
Europe: Geographic Changes
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
Risks in key sectors
Water: decresing water
availability, changes in
precipitation, melting of glaciers,
extreme weather events,
increasing competition of
demand
Agriculture:
Decreasing agricultural
production, economic
decline, more
unempoyment, food
shortages, increasing
competition of demand
Climate change
Urban space
Food
Infrastructure,
energy supply and transport:
environmental change due to
climate change increases
running costs (damages,
flooding etc) or reduces
energy production (hydro)
Water
Energy
Infrastru
cture
transport
Governance
Land use
Urbanisation: Increasing disaster
risks, health risks, growing
population dynamics, growing
slums
JRC DG Regio‘s 2020
„THE CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE FOR EUROPEAN REGIONS“
Adaptive capacity
“the ability or potential
of a system to respond
successfully to climate
variability and
changes“ (IPCC 2007)
• Awareness
• Technology and
infrastructure
• Economic resources
• Institutions
Vulnerability to
climate change “ is a
function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of
climate variation to which a
system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive
capacity” (IPCC 2007).
• Countries which expect a
high increase in impact seem
to be less able to adapt
•Climate change would trigger
a deepening of the existing
socio-economic imbalances
between the core of Europe
and its periphery.
Future runs counter to
territorial cohesion ?
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower.
Data: US Energy Administration, 2008
Relative change of average (1961-90)
total discharge volumes
calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the
2020s
Relative change of average (1961-90)
total discharge volumes
calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the
2070s
Climate change effects
on hydroelectric production potential
Pumped storage
hydropower
Reservoir
hydropower
Run-of-river
hydropower
Framework of climate change effects on different
characteristics of hydropower schemes
Discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt do not apply to pure pumped storage,
which is not connected to a river network. Only evaporation is applicable to reservoir
surface area to volume ratio (SA:Vol).
BALKAN areas: impacts of climate change
– Decrease of runoff (reduction of hydropower
production)
– Increase of (catastrophic) drought periods
• Critical situation for run of river HPP production
• Importance of the storage capacity will rise
(multipurpose use!)
• Restrictions for the operation of thermal power
plants because of a lack of cooling water or the
water temperature is to high
• High electricity demand because of air conditioning
Impacts on the hydropower generation
The effects of the climate change scenarios on
the water regime in Europe are:
• very uncertain
• locally different
►Still difficult to have clear strategies
In alpine and mountain areas (most scenarios show)
• decrease of summer runoff, increase of winter runoff
• decrease of the snowpack, glaciers
• increase of extreme events (floods and droughts)
► Importance of the storage capacity will rise
•
•
•
•
Flood protection by storage HPP on a local scale
Positive influence on the run-off during drought periods
New rules regarding dam safety (new hydrological methods)
Sediment problems will increase (permafrost level in alpine areas)
Conclusions
• Climate change is a serious issue for the whole
electricity industry
• Hydropower is still the most important renewable
energy source in Europe and the role of
renewable energy sources will further increase
• Hydropower operators must have a strong focus
on climate change and have to learn to deal with
uncertainty
• At this point in time, the impacts are not
sufficiently quantified in Balkan region and
adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place
• CO2 avoidance by Hydropower
• 1 GWh from Hydropower corresponds to
approximately 220 tonns oil
• 1 GWh from Hydropower corresponds to
approximately 330 tonns hard coal
Conclusions
• South East Europe faces formidable
climate change challenges.
• At this point in time, the impacts are
not sufficiently quantified in SEE
region and adaptation and mitigation
strategies not in place.
Proportion of severe
water stress EU river
basins likely to
increase from
19% today to 35%
by 2070.
Areas affected by
droughts will
increase.
Special Report on Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC , 2011)
• There is medium confidence that droughts will
intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and
areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or
increased evapotranspiration.
• This applies to regions including southern
Europe and the Mediterranean region, central
Europe, central North America, Central America
and Mexico, NE Brazil, and S Africa.
The net change in territorial emissions (1990–2008) together with the change in the net
emission transfer between each country and non-Annex B countries.
The red stars represent pledged emission reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol.
Europe (EU27 + Croatia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland.
Peters et al., 2011