Download Risks and threats on water availability in WB (Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Risks and threats on water availability in western
Balkan
Outcomes from the workshop:
"Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change
impacts and Water Scarcity, Belgrade, Serbia, 24-26 October 2011
SESSION 3: getting to know WB scenarios
Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA
Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western
Balkan, 11-13 February 2013
Environment security - definition
The security of individuals, communities, nation-states, and the
global community as a whole is increasingly
jeopardised because of unpremeditated environmental, non-military,
threats.
Environmental security is seen as protection capability of societal
systems (communities) to withstand threats of
(1) environmental asset scarcity,
(2) environmental risks or adverse changes, and
(3) environment related tensions and conflicts.
R.Perelet (1994)
• "The environment: towards a sustainable future”
• Millenium project
2
Assessment of eleven global megatrends (EEA SOER 2010) impacting European region
Global megatrend on climate change: Increasing severity of the consequences of climate
change
Accelerating climate change impacts will imperil food and water supplies, human health and harm
terrestrial and marine life. Europe may see also more human migrations, changes in migratory species and
aggravated pressure on resources availability.
Economic and social
context and impacts
Environmental changes
Degradation
Environmental stress
Resources scarcity/abundance
Environment related security impacts
Ecological security, health risks
water security, food security, energy security, resource security
Human security
environment related tensions and conflicts
Destabilisation and conflicts
(civil unrest, wars, international instability)
3
Opportunity for prevention, mitigation, adaptation
RISKS on water availability in
Western Balkans
• risks of spatially and temporally uneven water supply
• changing climate patterns and extreme events
• water management decisions such as planned cuts in water storage and
• increasing use of hydropower.
• risk of shortages of good quality drinking water, particularly in
coastal and urban regions
• risks to agricultural, industrial and transport sectors
• indirect water-related risks resulting from climate change:
• poverty, health and conflict arising from competition for scarce water
resources.
4
RISKS
1.
UNEVEN WATER SUPPLY IN
TIME & SPACE
-coastal regions, urban regions
2.
UNEXPECTED HASARDOUS
IMPACT OF WATER and
underestimation of severity
4.
INSUFFICIENT AND/OR
INADEQUATE WATER
INFRASTRUCTURE (SUPPLY)
5.
6.
7.
8.
GOALS- risks management
High level of monitoring system/network
Integrated water management
Sustainable spatial planning
Cooperation with neighbours and international conventions
High level of monitoring and early warning system
Direct water from N to S, maintain reservoirs,
spatial planning
maintenance of water reservoirs
Sustainable spatial planning
RISKS TO AGRICULTURE
AND INDUSTRY , RIVER
TRANSPORT
Low
DRINKING WATER
SCARCITY
Efficient irrigation technologies
water management, green technologies,
renewable energy increase-HP
RISK OF HIGH SHARE OF
RENEWABLE ENERGY
(HYDROPOWER) – THEY
CHANGE WATER REGIME
Low
Technological advances
Water and energy strategies combined
Integrated participatory based water management
WATER POLLUTION,
SALINISATION, EROSION
Improvement of water supply network and efficiency
Water affordability for all people
Forest management, water reuse, preservation of water
quality (EU water directive)
Technological advances
5
Pathways to reach the goals
S1 good society:
1) access of safe water to everybody, 2) affordable to people.
Legislation, social areas, economy for kick off-technology-economy instruments, environment
S2 technogarden :
Pathways to safe water supply:
Political stability, Education, Renewable energy, Green technologies, Production, Green agriculture , Water treatment, Tourism, Recycle and reuse, R&D support, Good
decisions
“Economy  Politics  youth knowledge development”
S3 and S4 up to hills and downward spiral:
The foundation of pathways is in good governance and political stability
and everything starts from there.
pathway also consists of:
•
rewards and punishment depending on behaviour,
•
education, improve people’s awareness of environment, environmental workshops,
•
expert base decision making,
•
technological improvement,
•
increase water storage capacity,
•
economic development.
“In order to reach our goals we must not bite more than we can chew”.
6
ENVSEC-EEA: Integrating the environment and
sustainability in energy policies
Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova ( 2009)
To provide options on improving policies and
national energy planning system for a design of
sustainable oriented energy strategies and
plans: with the use of scenarios
Final matrix of driving forces and scenarios
National conditions:
economic growth and policy
implementation
Followed by policy recommendations for
countries
RULE OF
LAW
Global energy/env. governance
Missed
opportunities
Sunrise
scenario
Low economic
growth
Weak policy
performance
Story of the
forgotten lands
Unsustainably
optimistic
RULE OF
POWER
High economic
growth Strong policy
performance
To raise awareness and to develop capacity of
national specialists to integrate environmental
and sustainability considerations in energyrelated strategic initiatives
7