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Evaluation of Water Scarcity in Africa Todd J. Schram CE 394K.2 Surface Water Hydrology Term Project Spring 1999 Dr. David Maidment Nile River, Cairo Overview Concepts of Water Scarcity Data Sources Water Resources Population Projections Evaluation of Scarcity Assessment of Climate Change Future Work Water Scarcity Concepts Water Stress Index ‘approximate min. level of water required per capita to maintain adequate quality of life in a moderately developed country in an arid zone’ developed by Swedish hydrologist M. Falkenmark Benchmarks Used by UN and World Bank as tool to evaluate water supply abundance of country Annual Renewable Freshwater per Capita (m3) Effects on Country >1,700 Limited Stress/Localized Problems 1,000 - 1,700 Water Stressed <1,000 Water Scarce <500 Absolute Scarcity Consequences of Water Scarcity Why should we be concerned? Deterioration of water quality Costs of producing/delivering water increases rapidly Constrains economic development Statistics for Developing Countries 80% of diseases caused by contaminated water 1/3 of all deaths attributed to water-related diseases Changes in Water Scarcity Water Demand Population growth Industrialization Water conservation initiatives Water Supply Climate variability Climate change Sources of Data UNEP-GRID Population Data World Resource Institute Water Resources Data ESRI Political Boundaries ERBE Net Radiation Geography Dept. (University of Delaware) Precipitation & Temperature Data Characterization Population Count Raster Dataset Resolution: 1o cells Tabular data converted to grid of 5,986 cells Freshwater Resources 1) Spatially distributed value based on country 2) Annual runoff from gridded precipitation and evaporation data Annual Renewable Freshwater Resources Total Volume (cubic kilometers) Note: Based on water resources of the country. Development of Population Count Grid Arc/Info ArcView Generate Fishnet Table/Join Data with Attributes Build Polygons Create Feature Data Theme Project Theme to Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area Convert to Grid Population Count Grids Year 2000 Population Count per Cell Note: Cell size is 1o x 1o. Year 2025 Year 2050 Evaluations of Scarcity Conditions Immediate Factor Effect of population growth on scarcity Analyzed using Water Stress Index benchmarks Long Term Factor Effect of climate change on scarcity Methodology presented Extent of Water Scarcity Year 2000 Water Scarcity Designations Year 2025 Year 2050 Annual Hydrologic Data Precipitation (mm) Temperature (oC) Net Radiation (W/m2) Assessment of Climate Change National Level USGS Global Change Hydrology Program Hydroclimatology International Level US Country Studies Program Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change • Recommends annual stochastic approach for areas with insufficient data • Q=P-E – Q - Runoff P - Precipitation E - Evaporation • Use of GCM or Incremental scenarios Evaporation Calculation Priestly-Taylor Evaporation Equation Applicable to continental scale Parameters Potential evaporation Net Radiation Temperature Saturated vapor pressure Latent heat of vaporization E = 1.3 * D/(D+g) * Er D = 4098 * es/(237.3+T)2 g = Cp * p/(0.622 * lv) * (Kh/Kw) Er = Rn/(r w* lv) es = 611 * exp[17.27 * T/(237.3+T)] lv = 2.5E+06 - 2370 * T Conclusions Water scarcity maps due to population growth Evaluate future water shortages of countries within next 60 years Effects of future climate changes Not easily determined Can determine temperature change effects Available Reports World Resource Institute (WRI) World Resources 1998-1999 World Bank World Development 1999 World Water Organization The World’s Water: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources, 1998-1999 Population Action International Sustaining Water: Population and the Future of Renewable Water Supplies UN - Commission on Sustainable Development Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World U.S. Country Studies Program Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Water and Social Resource Scarcity AQUASTAT Future Work Utilize annual hydrologic data to: conduct spatial evaluation to determine local regions of water scarcity determine impact of climatic temperature change on water scarcity Questions? Lake Victoria, Uganda
