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Help on Homework Erika Mudrak Bessey 224 ([email protected]) Part #1: The Driving Force behind Climate Change Further Evidence Mauna Loa Fossil Atmospheres Direct Evidence of Warming Part #2: Predicting the Impact on Vegetation Paleoecology: Evidence from the Past to Predict Change in the Future Past Climate Change: ~15,000 bp Temperature in Perspective Plumbing the Pollen Record Sources of Fossil Pollen (cores) • Bogs • Lake/ocean sediments Independent dating (C14 dating) • C14:C12 set at death • C14 is radioactive • C14 decays to C12 • Half life of ~ 5730 y • Accurate up to 35,000 y bp Examining the Pollen Record The Pollen Record: a broader view Distribution >13,000 bp A Community Ecology Perspective Problems with Pollen Cores • Bias towards winged pollen • Insect pollinated: under represented • Locally abundant: over represented • Unavailable in arid or semi-arid systems Paleoecology through Packrat Middens: a semi-arid solution Neotoma cenerea A Fossil Midden Midden Locations Distribution of Present day Pinus edulis ~ 17,000 bp Attempts to Predict the Future Global Climate Models (GCMs) Global Climate Models (GCMs) Global Climate Models (GCMs) Global Climate Models (GCMs) Example Predictions from a GCM Predicting Change in Biomes Current distribution Biome — “a major biogeographic region that differs from other regions in structure of its vegetation and dominant plant species” Predicting Change in Biomes Current distribution A predicted distribution in 75 to 100 years Predicting Change in Local Communites: San Francisco Peaks, AZ Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in the United States The National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program Published in 2000 The Climate Envelope Approach to Prediction Acer sacchrum range map (1971) with known occurrences Climate Envelope Model for Distribution of Acer Sacchrum Predicted distribution based on temperature and precipitation Observed occurrences and associated range map Climate Envelope Model for Distribution of Acer Sacchrum Predicted distribution based on temperature and precipitation Predicted distribution based on temperature (under irrigation) Climate Envelope Model for Distribution of Acer Sacchrum Based on temperature and precipitation Based on temperature under irrigation Predicted range under one climate change scenario Indirect Effects of Climate Change: Sea Rise Climate Change and Exotic Species