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Climate change: Challenge, menace or opportunity? Extreme events and climate change Climate change and human action Built vulnerability as the local expression of unmanaged risk Built vulnerability: human intervention increases exposure to extreme events. Climate change is an additional stress for sustainable, resilient development Increased climate change is insufficiently valued in its costs The results of the 4th Assessment report to the IPCC (why was it given the 2007 half of the Peace Nobel Prize) Essential conclusions of the three working groups: Group I: incontestable evidence of climate change and its attribution to human intervention linking greenhouse gases to climate change. Group II: Impacts are undeniable and can be traced as additional stress sustainable development. Local impacts are aggravated by development, physical and structural vulnerabilites. Adaptation costs are smaller than damage and losses, as demonstrated by extreme events increase over time. Group II: Overal dynamic impact of mitigation (as decreased growth or higher sustainable development investment) is smaller than cost of unabated continuation of tendencies (3% decrease of world GDP growth associated to mitigation to avoid 30% loss of GDP in next 30/5o years. Need for both local and global efforts, concentrating developing countries efforts in adaptation supported by developed and emerging economies efforts in mitigation. Sound scientific and technical basis for crucial Bali negotiations of Post-Kyoto convention. Relevant participation of developing countries’ scientists and researchers in AR4: as lead authors and as literature quoted, focusing on differentiated regional impacts: the case for SIDS Regional impact in Latin America and the Caribbean (see also the small Islands chapter) The climate record from the Vostok (Antarctica) ice core shows the natural variations in the atmospheric CO2 levels associated with the swing between full glacial conditions and interglacial periods such as today. Note the 1994 atmospheric CO2 level plotted on the left-hand side of the graph; we currently have an unusually high concentration of carbon dioxide. The climatological effects are thus potentially significant. Circulación del aire: Cambios recientes Cambio climático y efectos sobre trayectoria de tormentas y patrones estacionales temperatura Fuerza de actividades antrópicas contribuye al cambio climático GLACIER MELTDOWN Evolution of area and volume of the Chacaltaya glacier (Bolivia), as estimated by Soruco et al. 2005 Temperature variation, where both the maximum and minimum increase, has affected the Andean glaciers, showing a marked recess in terms of extension and volume. Up to 40% reduction linked to atmospheric temperature increase. Mos notable recessions: Campos de hielo Sur (ChileArgentina), Callejón del Huaylas (Perú), Cordillera Real (Bolivia) Threat to livelihood in the Andean valleys (water sources, avalanches, watersheds) Who is responsible: share in emissions Party Emissions Summary for United States of America CO2 emissions without LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF GHG emissions without LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF Base year 5,005,254.9 -910,373.1 4,094,881.8 6,103,283.3 -904,695.8 5,198,587.5 Emissions, in Gg CO2 equivalent 2000 5,864,464.9 -759,506.7 5,104,958.2 6,975,928.7 -753,132.8 6,222,795.9 2004 5,987,984.4 -780,094.2 5,207,890.2 7,067,569.6 -773,254.5 6,294,315.0 CO2 emissions without LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF GHG emissions without LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF Changes in emissions, in per cent From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004 From 2000 to 2004 17.2 19.6 2.1 -16.6 -14.3 2.7 24.7 27.2 2.0 14.3 15.8 1.3 -16.8 -14.5 2.7 19.7 21.1 1.1 CO2 emissions without LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF GHG emissions without LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF Average annual growth rates, in per cent per year From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004 From 2000 to 2004 1.6 1.3 0.5 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 2.3 1.8 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.3 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.3 The base year under the Climate Change Convention is 1990 except for Bulgaria (1988), Hungary (average of 1985 to 1987), Poland (1988), Romania (1989) and Slovenia (1986), as defined by decisions 9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4. Party Emissions Summary for European Community CO2 emissions without LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF GHG emissions without LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF Base year 3,360,068.9 -209,717.0 3,150,351.9 4,266,395.4 -204,921.2 4,061,474.2 Emissions, in Gg CO2 equivalent 2000 3,355,018.4 -257,438.9 3,097,579.5 4,137,796.8 -253,125.6 3,884,671.3 2004 3,506,538.8 -290,344.4 3,216,194.4 4,232,341.6 -286,114.0 3,946,227.6 CO2 emissions without LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF GHG emissions without LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF Changes in emissions, in per cent From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004 From 2000 to 2004 -0.2 4.4 4.5 22.8 38.4 12.8 -1.7 2.1 3.8 -3.0 -0.8 2.3 23.5 39.6 13.0 -4.4 -2.8 1.6 CO2 emissions without LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF GHG emissions without LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF Average annual growth rates, in per cent per year From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004 From 2000 to 2004 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 2.6 3.2 -0.2 0.2 1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 2.4 2.7 3.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 The base year under the Climate Change Convention is 1990 except for Bulgaria (1988), Hungary (average of 1985 to 1987), Poland (1988), Romania (1989) and Slovenia (1986), as defined by decisions 9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4. What is the evidence for climate change? And from the longer record? Is there still a controversy? Although some meteorologists say historical series have to be adjusted for the longer trend All scenarios show that since the mid 19th century the level of temperature rise is increasing constantly What is the expected impact on climate? Change in global surface temperature Change in global mean sea level Pattern of annual average temperature change, 2080s relative to present day for A1F1 (left) and B2 (right) emissions scenarios Precipitation indices: maximum length of dry spell per year (2070-99 minus 1961-90) 50oN A2a: 30 o 45 N 20 A2a scenario o 40 N A2a 10 0 35oN -10 – Longer by 15-30 days in centre and south east – 10 days shorter over northern Europe o 30 N 10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE 50oN 30 o 45 N 20 40oN 10 35oN 0 -10 o 30 N 10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE B2a B2a: – Smaller changes than A2a – wetter Eastern Med. Hurricanes in the Atlantic have increased (in frequency and strength) with the sea level temperature rise (SST) (1944-2005) SST Notable increase after 1944 Probability of extreme events: Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency 2006-2010:An Experimental Forecast Based on Multi-decadal Analogues, JORGE SÁNCHEZ–SESMA,Coordinación de Hidrología, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Morelos, México. 22 ATC Frequencies [1/yr] ATC frequency [1/yr] 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 1973 2010 1978 1983 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1970.00 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year 80 70 60 Lag [yr] AMO index [°C] Time [yr] 50 40 30 20 10 1975.00 1980.00 1985.00 1990.00 1995.00 2000.00 Time [yr] Registered Model RegisteredCDC 2005.00 2010.00 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Forecast time [yr] 1995 2000 2005 Precipitation indices: max. 5-day running total (2070-99 minus 1961-90) 50 N o 40 45oN 20 A2a scenario 40oN 35oN -20 o 30 N 0 10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE -40 50 N o 40 45oN 20 o 40 N 0 35oN -20 30oN o 10 W 0 o o 10 E o 20 E o 30 E o 40 E -40 A2a: – Lower intensity, by 10-20 mm, in future, particularly in west – Increased intensity in centre and Adriatic B2a: – Smaller changes than A2a – Clearly higher intensity in Italy Impacts Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers Heat stress Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution Coastal cities and tidal surge Implications of increased wind storm Adaptation Through design: – – – – Of urban spaces Of buildings Land use planning Development poverty reduction and adaptation Through behaviour – Use of the outdoor environment – Transport policies – Air conditioning Mitigation activities Energy use – Reduction in demand – Use of renewables Fuel-efficient transport systems Clean production procedures Aforestation and reforestation Saved deforestation (to be obtained in new Post-Koto negotiations) What about surprises/abrupt climate change? Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting of the Greenland ice cap Collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation Of course, the real surprises are the ones we haven’t thought of The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change To assess the scientific literature on climate change To support the UNFCCC Three Working Groups – Science – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – Mitigation and Policy Now carrying out the Fourth Assessment To report in 2007 Structure of WGII Two Co-Chairs: – Martin Parry, UK – Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina Six Vice-Chairs One TSU with four full-time staff Writing team of around 200 CLAs, LAs and REs, plus Contributing Authors Four Lead Author Meetings Working Group II AR4 Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary Introduction 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society 8. Human health III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability Impact of Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment The IPCC Fourth Assessment Working Group Reports: Key findings WMO UNEP Dr R K Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI United Nations Headquarters New York City 24th September 2007 Human contribution to climate change Changes in CO2 from ice core and modern data Global atmospheric -2 concentrations of greenhouse gases increased markedly as result of human activities In 2005 concentration of CO2 exceeded by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years 10000 5000 Time (before 2005) 0 Direct observations of recent climate change Changes in temperature, sea level and northern hemisphere snow cover Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Glacier mass balance Cumulative balance of glacier mass in some regions During the 20th century, glaciers and ice caps have experienced widespread mass losses and have contributed to sea level rise Further decline of mountain glaciers projected to reduce water availability in many regions Heavier precipitation, more intense and longer droughts…. Key vulnerabilities to climate change Some regions will be more affected than others: • The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes) • Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops) • Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation) • Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers) Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable: • Coral reefs, marine shell organisms • Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions • 20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction Coastal settlements most at risk Ranges for predicted surface warming Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming Mitigation urgently needed Continued GHG emissions at or above current rate would induce larger climatic changes than those observed in 20th century Emissions of the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol increased by about 70% from 1970–2004 Mitigation needs to start in short term, even when benefits may only arise in a few decades Beyond adaptation Adaptation to climate change is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions However: • Adaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impacts of climate change • The costs of adaptation and impacts will increase as global temperatures increase Making development more sustainable can enhance both mitigative and adaptive capacity, and reduce emissions and vulnerability to climate change Pathways towards stabilization Characteristics of stabilization scenarios Stabilization level (ppm CO2eq) Global mean temp. increase equilibrium at (ºC) Year CO2 needs to peak Year CO2 emissions back at 2000 level Reduction in 2050 CO2 emissions compared to 2000 445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50 490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30 535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5 590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60 710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85 855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140 Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels Mitigation costs in 2030 Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 for leastcost trajectories towards different long-term stabilization levels Trajectories Median Range of Reduction of towards GDP GDP average annual stabilization reduction reduction GDP growth levels (%) (%) rates (ppm CO2-eq) 590-710 0.2 -0.6 – 1.2 535-590 0.6 0.2 – 2.5 (percentage < 0.06 points) <0.1 445-535 Not available <3 < 0.12 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP Illustration of cost numbers GDP GDP without mitigation 80% 77% GDP with stringent mitigation Current Time ~1 Year 2030 Key technologies to reduce emissions Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available Energy Supply Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning Buildings Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances Key policies to reduce emissions Appropriate incentives for development of technologies Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes Appropriate energy infrastructure investment decisions, which have long term effects on emissions Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns, especially in building, transport and industrial sectors A technological has two choices. First can wait Be thesociety change you want toit see inuntil thecatastrophic world failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures. An equity and development issue Distribution of attribution: – GHE vs. Adaptation costs – Mitigation costs vs. Level of contribution Issues of developmnent and climate change International agendas’ disconnect – – – – – Competitiveness and trade % of GDP destined to cooperation MDGs Sustainable development Peace and security A guide por policy measures: Taxonomy of Standards (process or production methods or PPM and product based) ANNUAL VOLUMES (million tCO2e) OF PROJECT-BASED EMISSION REDUCTIONS TRADED (up to 2012 vintages) MARKET BUYERS (share of volume of ERs purchased), Purchases of World Bank Carbon Funds allocated to Funds Participants pro rata their shares LOCATION OF EMISSION REDUCTION PROJECTS (in share of volume supplied) Total Value of Project-Based Transactions: TOTAL MARKET VALUE (ESTIMATE) PER YEAR in million U.S. dollars (nominal) Supposing you wanted to contribute to the process The IPCC assesses the literature It seeks to be inclusive and consensual The preference is for fully refereed publications There are procedures to deal with ‘grey literature’ Submissions of literature and/or text can be made to the appropriate CLA, the Co-Chairs or the TSU, for consideration There is a need for increased research in developing countries Thank you See: http://www.cepal.org/mexico http://groups.google.ch/groups/pdna-for-recovery http://www.isdr.org http://www.wmo.org/ipcc