Download Hydro-Québec`s Experience in Adapting to Climate Change

Hydro-Québec’s Experience
in Adapting to Climate Change
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector
March 6-7, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Ralph Silver
President
Technik Eaucan inc.
Major contributors :
D. Chaumont, G. Desrochers, A. Frigon, F. Guay, M. Minville,
G. Pacher, L. Roy, M. Slivitzky D. Tapsoba and N. Thiémonge
Presentation outline
• Context
– The Hydro-Québec Power System
– Hydro-Québec reliance on climate
• Identification of Problems to be dealt with
• Impact Assessment on hydrological conditions
• Adaptation
– Experimentation and Results
– Operational Changes – non-structural
– Modifications to Configurations – Structural
– Combination of these adaptation strategies
• Conclusions
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Presentation of Hydro-Québec ‘s Power System
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97% of the electricity is generated from hydro
57 Power houses (35,647 MW)
26 Reservoirs (Total capacity of 175 TWh)
Renewable energy comes from rain
(Churchill Falls : 19 %)
La Grande : 41 %
Manicouagan : 23 %
St-Maurice : 5 %
Outaouais : 5 %
St-Laurent : 7 %
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Extreme Climate Events
Saguenay (1996 : 800 M $)
Ice rain event (1998 : 1,6 Billions $)
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Deviation of Annual Energy Inflow
Variability of Annual Energy Inflow
Surplus
Deficits
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
The problem to cope with
Considering any hydro infrastructure (existing or
projected), managers need to evaluate Project
Performance (Resources Optimization).
Actual
Climate
 Evidences that Climate is changing
Hydrological
Regime
Operating
Rules
 Expected impacts
Physical
Configuration
 Need to revisit equipment performance in light of CC
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
The question to be answered
• How to manage climate change-associated
impacts in water resource projects (existing
and planned) ?
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Climate change impact identification
Evaluation of Impacts
Evaluation of Various Adaptation measures
Selection of appropriate Adaptation Measures
Implementation of Measures
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Climate Change Impact Assessment
• Examples of Ongoing Assessments
▪ Application to Hydro-Québec Network
▪ 94 watersheds
▪ 90 Climate change projections
▪ Projections of future inflows
▪ Multitude of analysis approaches
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Spatial Variability of Inflow Changes (horizon 2050)
•
•
•
•
•
1
All inflow changes are
positive
Significant regional
differences
Greater in the North than
in the South
Most of HQ’s installations
are in the North
The flexible Hydro
Québec system will
facilitate identification and
application of adaptative
approches
2
4
6
10 to 14 % increase
1 to 8 % increase
8
10
12
14 %
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Total 90 Climate projections
Inflows (m3/s)
Evolution of the annual hydrological regime
Actual and future simulated
hydrological regime of a
Northern Québec watershed
Future conditions (2041-2070)
(90 hydrological scenarios)
Actual conditions (1961-2007)
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Experimentation prior to Adaptation
With Climate Change
Without CC
Current
climate
Projected
climate
With Operational Changes
With Physical
Changes
Current
hydrology
Projected
hydrology
Initial
operating
rules
Initial
operating
rules
Adapted
operating
rules
Adapted
operating
rules
Initial
physical
configuration
Initial
physical
configuration
Initial
physical
configuration
Adapted
physical
configuration
Productivity 1
Productivity 2
Productivity 3
Productivity 4
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Benefits of Adapting Operating Rules
Annual Hydroelectric Generation
Chute-des-Passes
Without Adaptation
Generation 
0 to -14 %
Hydroelectric Generation
(proportion of the control period)
2050
With Adaptation
cp
Generation 
+1 to +15 %
Source : MInville, M. (Ph.D. Thesis, 2008)
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Let’s make non structural changes …
Examples
• Influence user energy demand
• Bring changes to operating rules
• Develop improved hydrological forecasting tools
• Better coordinate of the operation of the project with other
water users and projects in the watershed
• Develop improved technologies to evaluate the
performance of projects and to identify new ways of
operating them under modified climatic conditions
• Modifiy engineering design practices
•…
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Let’s go one step further …
Structural changes (examples)
• Divert water course of upstream tributaries
• Create new upstream storage reservoirs
• Increase the capacity of spillway
• Design dams in such a way that , if needed, additional spillways
or other physical components could be considered in the project
• Change the number and type of turbines
• Modifying the dimensions of canals in order to reduce head loss
or increase their discharge capacities
• Modification to the characteristics of electrical components
(generators, transformers, transmission line etc.)
• Add controllable gates to free spillways
• …
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Why not a combination of the 2 ?
For existing projects
• Implement Changes to operating policies
•Update size and characteristics of existing turbine
For new projects
 Develop and apply new design criteria
Target progressive physical and operation changes
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Conclusions : The Climate Science
•
Important breakthroughs have been made in the
field of climate modeling (RCM)
•
Thus available knowledge and technologies are
sufficiently mature to be used
•
Evalute a multitude of climate change scenarios
•
Level of uncertainty is important and should be
taken into account in the decison process
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Conclusions : Impacts and Adaptation
• Evidences of Climate Change and
consequences on Water Resources
• This evolution of the Hydrological Regime
will impact Hydro Projects
• For existing equipments, revisit operation
mode to consider CC impacts
• Future equipments should be designed to be
operated « adaptively »
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Conclusions : Organizational
•
Develop and apply policies that take into consideration
Climate Change
•
Maintain R&D efforts applied to Climatology, Hydrology
and Operational issues
•
Reduce the gap between Research activities and
Planning-Design-Operations
•
Promote collaboration between Water Resources
Managers tackling Global Water Challenges by
recognizing that watersheds should be managed in a
global fashion
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Requirements for Adaptation
 Long
term vision
• climate change is generally slow and difficult to discern given natural variability
 Long
term monitoring and documentation
• because of the affirmation above
 Modeling
• not only of climate and hydrology, but also of possible management pathways and
infrastructure design
 Organisational
structure that values learning
• Judging managerial decisions predominantly by their success in achieving e.g.
financial objectives is inimical to the adaptive management approach, since the
value of the knowledge gained for future decisions is not accounted for.
 Risk
acceptance
• “… if action in the face of uncertainty must be accompanied by an assurance that
nothing will go wrong, then we have a recipe for inaction.” [Stankey, et al., 2005].
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Barriers to Adaptation

Uncertainties
• Still important, but we should not wait until we have the exact answer to react

Maintenance of status quo
• Normal inertia of organizations does not lend itself to experimentation in any form

Jurisdictional, boundaries
• Different agents with differing mandates must act consensually, which may be
precluded by their mission statements

Present certain costs vs. possible future benefit
• “…the asymmetry between the economic, political, and personal costs of
experimentation (often immediate and obvious) and the benefits (often displaced to
the future and problematic) can act to suppress investments in knowledge
acquisition …” [Stankey et al., 2003]

Conventional cost benefit analysis with fixed discount rates
• With a fixed discount rate typical for medium term cost-benefit analysis such as
carried out for hydropower installations, benefits (or expenses) beyond a time scale
of several decades are irrelevant
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change
Thank you !
Hydro-Québec and Climate Change