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NUMERICAL MODELING OF
THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HYDROLOGY
JENNIFER ADAM
OCTOBER 12, 2009
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Outline



Background
Research
Teaching
Background

B.S., University of Colorado, Boulder, 1997


Peace Corps, Solomon Islands, 1997-1999


Focus: hydrology, research on removal of biases in precipitation
observations
Ph.D., University of Washington, 2007


secondary education, mathematics
M.S., University of Washington, 2002


Focus: environmental engineering, research on the removal of
manganese in nitrification filters
Focus: hydrology, climate change impacts on streamflow in Northern
Eurasia
Assistant Professor, WSU, 2008-present
RESEARCH
Hydrological Modeling
•Climate Change Impact Analysis
•Land Use Change Impact Analysis
•
Research: Outline



Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate
change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects
Research: Outline



Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate
change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects
1901-2005 Temperature Changes
Globally averaged, the planet is about
0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860.
IPCC AR4 (2007)
1901-2005 Precipitation Changes
IPCC AR4 (2007)
Predicted Temperature Changes
A1B 2090-2099
IPCC AR4 (2007)
Predicted Precipitation Changes
A1B 2090-2099
IPCC AR4 (2007)
Predicted changes in the Pacific
Northwest (by 2040)

Temperature:
 +1.4

to 2.7 °C
Precipitation:
 Fall,
Winter, Spring: +2.3 to 5.8%
 Summer: -5.1 to -11.2%
UW CIG Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment (2009)
Research: Outline



Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate
change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects
Overview of the modeling framework
1. Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Future climate
effects depends on
future emissions of
important
greenhouse gases
such as CO2 - a
socioeconomic
uncertainty
[Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.]
2. The Global Climate Model (GCM)
A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffie, A Climate Modelling Primer, Wiley, 1987
3. Downscaling
GCM
Downscaled
Original GCM values
Slide courtesy of A. Wood
4. Hydrological Modeling
Water Balance
P
ET
Q
Energy Balance
Variables
that are a
function of
temperature
Rs
Rlw LH SH
Heat
Storage, T
Moisture
Storage
ET = f(LH)
GH
Slide courtesy of A. Wood
Examples of Hydrology
Models
•Physically-based
•Fully-distributed
•Continuous
VIC: 100 km x 100 km
DHSVM: 150 m x 150 m
Required Land Surface Characteristics
Puget Sound Regional Synthesis Model (PRISM)
Adding reservoir operations to a modeling
system
VIC
Hydrology
Model
River
Routing
Model
1
Reservoir
Model
2
3
4
Adam et al. 2007
Research: Outline



Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate
change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects
(1) Improving the adaptability of dryland
agriculture to climate change

Who?
 Josh
Van Wie (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010)
 Jeff Ullman (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering)
 Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)

Motivation and Goals
 Dryland
(non-irrigated) agriculture may become more
vulnerable in a changing climate
 Therefore, we are seeking to understand which
agricultural practices may improve soil water retention
for crop use
Study Area: The Palouse Basin
South Fork
Basin
Preliminary Model Results (using DHSVM)
Drainage Network
Land Cover
Topography
Simulated
Observed
Future Directions

Near-Term:
 Adjusting
DHSVM soil and vegetation parameters to
account for changes in cropping practices (e.g.,
traditional versus conservation tillage)
 Applying DHSVM to examine the hydrologic impacts of
a widespread adoption of conservation practices

Longer-Term:
 Coupling
to a dynamic crop growth model (CropSyst) to
examine the impacts on crop yield
 Performing climate change simulations to examine the
adaptability of Palouse Basin agriculture to climate
alterations
(2) Impacts of climate change and forest
practices on landslide susceptibility

Who?
Muhammad Barik (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010)
 Balasingam Muhunthan (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
 Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
 And others…


Motivation and Goals
Climate change may increase landslide susceptibility in
commercial forests with steep terrain. This may result in an
increase of sediment to streams and rivers with ecological
consequences.
 We seek to explore what best management practices in
commercial forests will promote the protection of riparian
areas in an altered climate.

Study Area: Basins of the Olympic
Experimental State Forest (OESF)
Preliminary Results for the Queets Basin
DHSVM Erosion and Sediment Transport Module
MASS WASTING
Soil Moisture
Content
Q
Sediment
Qsed
Channel Flow
Sediment
DHSVM
Precipitation
CHANNEL ROUTING
Leaf Drip
Infiltration and Saturation
Excess Runoff
Erosion
Deposition
ROAD
HILLSLOPE
EROSION
EROSION
(3) Impacts of climate change on
sediment generation in the Potlatch Basin

Who?
 Erika
Ottenbreit (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010)
 Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)

Motivation and Goals
 Sediment
generated over agriculture areas may end up
in streams and rivers causing a variety of environmental
and engineering problems.
 Therefore, we are seeking to understand how sediment
generation in agricultural basins may be impacted by
projected changes in climate.
Study Area: The Potlatch Basin

Latah
County
Clearwater
River


Application of
DHSVM hydrology
and sediment modules
Will simulate sediment
generation for
historical and future
climates
Evaluation of model
results with a turbidity
meter near the basin
outlet
(4) Impacts of climate change on
stormwater runoff across the PNW

Who?
Greg Karlovits (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010)
 Liv Haselbach (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)


Motivation and Goals
Climate change may result in increased flooding because
extreme rainfall events may become more frequent, more
precipitation will fall as rain (versus snow). There is a need to
identify the critical stormwater infrastructure in the region.
 We are seeking to develop regional maps showing how
runoff volumes (due to the 2-year, 25-year, and 50-year
storms) are changing in response to projected climate change.
We will be placing confidence bounds on these estimates.

Impacts on extreme rain events
Model simulated changes in extreme rainfall, southern England.
Huntingford et al. 2006
(5) Water supply and demand
forecasting over the Columbia River Basin

Who?






Kirti Rajagopalan (PhD Student)
Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Claudio Stockle (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering)
Mike Brady (Faculty, Economics)
And many others…
Motivation and Goals


Climate change is expected to change Columbia flows, while
temperature changes impact crop water use. Changes in water
supply as well as the socioeconomic environment will impact the
type of crop being cultivated as well as the irrigation efficiency.
We will be forecasting (for the year 2030) water supply and
irrigation-water demand over the Columbia River Basin as
information required by the WS Dept of Ecology to make water
allocation decisions.
Study Area: The Columbia River Basin


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
1,250 miles long
Drains 258,000
square miles
Contributing runoff
from 7 states and 2
countries
Highly regulated
Modeling Strategy
(6) Coupled Air/Land Modeling of the
Nitrogen Cycle


Funding through a new IGERT, “Nitrogen Systems: Policyoriented Integrated Research and Education (NSPIRE)”
Who?



PI Brian Lamb (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Multiple others: Shane Brown, Bill Budd, Dave Evans, Andy Ford,
Kris Johnson, Kent Keller, Bill Pan, Shelley Pressley, …
Motivation and Goals


An improvement in the management of Nitrogen use is paramount.
Environmental Nitrogen causes problems both to human and
environmental health. Conversely, its sustainable production is
needed for agricultural purposes.
An improved understanding of Nitrogen genesis, fate, and
transport in the environment can be improved by a coupled
atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere modeling tool.
TEACHING
1.
2.
3.
CE 351 Water Resources Engineering
CE 456 Sustainable Development in Water
Resources
CE 552 Hydroclimatology
CEE 543
Hydroclimatology


Spring semester
Topics
 Basics
of hydrologic and climate sciences
 Introduction of analysis tools: statistics, hydrological
modeling, climate data downscaling, remote sensing
 Literature review of climate change impacts on the
water cycle
CE 456 Sustainable Development in
Water Resources




Fall semester
New class (first teaching Fall 2009)
Elective for CEE students
Topics
 Water
resource supplies in the Pacific Northwest
 Current and future water demands
 Climate change impacts on water supplies
 Current developments in sustainable design
 Risk analysis
CE 351
Water Resources Engineering



Offered Every Fall and Spring semester
Required course for all CEE undergraduates
Topics
 Pipe
flow
 Pumping systems
 Introduction to open channel flow
 Introduction to hydrology
THANK YOU!
Example. Impacts on water supplies
and flooding potential
Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply)
for “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios
9000
+1.7 C
8000
Simulated 20th
Century Climate
6000
5000
2020s Climate
Change Scenario
4000
3000
2040s Climate
Change Scenario
+2.5 C
2000
1000
9/2
8/5
7/8
6/10
5/13
4/15
3/18
2/18
1/21
12/24
11/26
10/29
0
10/1
Inflow (acre-ft)
7000
Date
Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet, UW CIG
Mapping of global snowmeltdominated regions
Approximately
1/6th of the
world’s
population
may be
affected
Barnett et al. 2005
Mapping of Washington State
snowmelt-dominated regions
Elsner et al. 2009
Summary of flooding impacts
Rain Dominant Basins:
Possible increases in flooding due to increased precipitation
variability, but no significant change from warming alone.
Mixed Rain and Snow Basins Along the Coast:
Strong increases due to warming and increased
precipitation variability (both effects increase flood risk)
Inland Snowmelt Dominant Basins:
Relatively small overall changes because effects of warming
(decreased risks) and increased precipitation variability
(increased risks) are in the opposite directions.
Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet