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Climate Change: The Great Debate ENVH 111 October 6, 2010 http://courses.washington.edu/envh111/ Overview • The never-ending debate • • • Trends in climate change • • • Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Senator James Inhofe Global Pacific Northwest The role of public health • • Assess health impacts of climate change Develop mitigation and adaptation strategies NRDC climate change http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG41xDxrzI8 Inhofe video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skf8bpl8WSg Global Trends in Climate Change Climate Change Projections Svante Arrhenius, 1906 “Any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the Earth’s surface by 4 °C.” Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide -- President’s Science Advisory Committee, 1965 “Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 … the best estimate of climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is a warming of 3°C, with a likely range of 2 to 4.5°C. Long term Trend in CO2 Global average temperature Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute │ http://provost.umich.edu/gesi Muir Glacier, Alaska Aug 1941 & 2004 Boulder Glacier on Mount Baker the North Cascades Tide gauge and satellite data on sea level Average rate of sea level rise: 1961 – 2003: 1.8 mm /yr 1993 – 2003: 3.1 mm /yr Source: Martin Manning, Director, IPCC Working Group Human Health Consequences of Climate Change NIH Report, April 2010 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Asthma, respiratory allergies, and airway diseases Cancer Cardiovascular disease and stroke Foodborne diseases and nutrition Heat-related morbidity and mortality Human developmental effects Mental health and stress-related disorders Neurological diseases and disorders Vectorborne and zoonotic diseases Waterborne diseases Weather-related morbidity and mortality Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Emissions by Country (Density-Equalizing Cartogram) Mark Newman, University of Michigan (www.worldmapper.org) Climate-Related Mortality Jonathan Patz, University of Wisconsin Climate Change and Human Health NIH Report, April 2010 Mitigation of climate change Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Enhancement of sinks that trap or remove carbon from the atmosphere Adaptation to climate change Actions taken to lessen the impact on health and the environment Some adaptation strategies will directly improve public health through changes in infrastructure Regional Trends in Climate Change University of Washington Changes Relative to the 20 th Century 2080s Projected Changes in Extreme Temp Figure 2. Change in numbe r of days in 2055-2075 w ith daily m axim um te mpe r ature (TM AX) e xce e ding the 90th pe rce ntile TM AX of the pre s ent.The number of extreme hot days in Washington State is expected to increase by mid-century relevant to current climate. The increase is likely to be most signif icant in eastern Washington. Figure Source: Leung and Qian (2005) WA State Study: Methods Establish historical relationship between heat events and mortality 25 year database: 1980-2005; May-September Humidex: combined effects of temperature and humidity Heat events: event threshold definition Hottest 1% of all days (99th percentile humidex) Number of heat events and duration of each event Excess deaths in 2025, 2045, 2085 Customize estimates for key study areas King County, Spokane County, Clark County Also estimate future mortality due to heat Historical Analysis Relative risk of death during heat event Mean Daily Mortality Rate(heat event) Mean Daily Mortality Rate(non-event) King County Relative Risk of Death, Heat Day vs Day < 36°C Humidex, Age Group Cause of Death All nontraumatic 0-4 5-14 15-44 45-64 65-84 0.92 (0.65, 1.31) 1.61 (0.71, 3.67) 1.01 (0.83, 1.23) 1.08 (0.97, 1.2) 1.07 (1.01, 1.13)* Respiratory 0 (0, Inf) † 0 (0, Inf) † 0.73 (0.23, 2.32) 1.18 (0.8, 1.75) 1.15 (0.97, 1.36) 1.14 (0.91, 1.42) Circulatory 1.97 (0.49, 7.96) 0 (0, Inf) † 1.3 (0.89, 1.9) 0.94 (0.76, 1.15) 1.08 (0.99, 1.19) 1.26 (1.14, 1.4)* Cardiovascular 1.16 (0.16, 8.2) 0 (0, Inf) † 1.3 (0.84, 1.99) 0.95 (0.76, 1.19) 1.03 (0.92, 1.15) 1.24 (1.1, 1.4)* Ischemic 0 (0, Inf) † 1.01 (0.83, 1.23) 1.38 (0.67, 2.81) 0.91 (0.69, 1.2) 1.03 (0.9, 1.17) 1.08 (0.91, 1.27) † Unstable estimate due to small mortality rate in this category * statistically significant results at p<0.05 85+ 1.24 (1.15, 1.33)* Time Series Analysis All non-traumatic deaths ~1.8%per ºC Spatial Distribution of Risk Relative risk of all non-traumatic deaths associated with heat days from 1980-2006 in King County ° F ºC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by IPCC, 2001 Future projections Projected Excess Deaths Per Year Due to Climate Change in King County 180 160 140 120 over 85 65-84 below 65 100 80 60 40 20 0 2025 Low 2045 Low 2025 Moderate 2045 Moderate 2025 High 2045 High So What are our Choices? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ&feature=r elated