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How is DWR Responding to Climate Change Sanjaya Seneviratne CWEMF November 21, 2003 Outline Address Climate Change in the California water Plan A simplified approach to account for changes in run off due to Climate Change Case Study ( In-Delta Storage) California Water Plan - Outline DWR Policy on Climate Change How is DWR incorporating Climate Change into its activities. (SWP Report, B118, JACT initiatives, Water Plan ) Water Plan Recommendations—(draft) Chapter 3 DWR Policy on Climate Change 2001—New DWR management directive on Climate Change Consistent with the policies of other State agencies. Will be addressed as a significant issue in the California Water Plan Update 2003 Climate Change Impacts Temperature projection 1.4 to 5.8C (2.5 to10.4 F) Reduced Sierra Snow Pack April-July Runoff Reduction by 2090 (Using+2.1C or 3.8F) • Sacramento Region ---43 percent • Southern Sierra—23 percent More precipitation falls as rain Earlier spring snow melt More Extreme Storms (climate variability) Rising Sea Level Coastal areas, groundwater, Delta levees (tides) and water quality effects Projections range from 7 inches to 35 inches rise . . . Central Valley Water Year Type Occurrence Percent Given WY Type 0.6 hist (1906-2000) 0.5 2020s 2050s 2090s 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Critically Dry Dry Below Normal Above Normal Wet Water Year Type Van Rheenen, N.T., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004 California Climate Initiative Formation of a Joint Agency Climate Team Members Resources Agency (CEC, DWR, Forestry, F&G) CALEPA (Air Resources Board, SWRCB, Integrated Waste management Department of Transportation Food and Ag, Trade & Commerce Governor’s Office—Planning & Research Initiatives focus on reduction of GHG emissions and adaptation to Climate Change JOINT AGENCY CLIMATE TEAM CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES DWR Collect Better Hydrologic and Environmental Data Enhance Capacity Water Management Planning Water Plan Acknowledgement Educate of climate change public Lay foundation for future research What can we do now Identifying a process for planners to consider climate change—climate variability Look at risk/tradeoffs—protection of investments, public safety,--incremental cost of added protection California Water Plan Public Advisory Committee Stakeholder Views Is global warming occurring? Belief in climate change but not from man made causes Can not plan or prepare for climate change Need only look at no-regret strategies Not an issue Traditional Approach to Hydrology, Water Resources, and Climate The classical assumption is equivalent to statistically stationary, “the future will resemble the past” Assumes sufficient time and information is available to respond to climate change Assumes no special effort is required to protect against surprises Water Plan Recommendations Stakeholder Briefing Draft Addressed in the Context of Planning For an Uncertain Future http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/b160/workgr oups/chapterreviewgroup.htm Enhance existing monitoring program that will verify past data trends and help validate models for evaluating climate change impacts. An enhanced monitoring program will help to build more accurate tools for predicting impacts at regional and local scales. Incorporate flexible and robust climate change response strategies to the extent possible into the design, planning, and operation of systems. Funding for federal, state and local agencies to develop strategic plans for dealing with climate change. The State should support efforts to enhance public awareness about climate change and make information readily available. Other than develop a strategic plan, what has DWR done about Climate Change ? Outline Address Climate Change in the California water Plan A simplified approach to account for changes in Run off due to Climate Change Case Study ( In-Delta Storage) Average monthly volume distribution V(2000-1951) – V (1950-1900) Annual Distribution of Unimpaired Runoff Sacramento River at Bend Bridge 0.30 1900-1950 Average Monthly Runoff As % WY Runoff 1951-2000 Average 50-Year Trend 0.25 100-Year Trend 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Comparison of Water Supply Impacts from CALSIM Studies Total Delta Exports Base Study Study 1 Base- Study 1 Study 2 Base-Study 2 4140 4070 -70 4035 -105 6251 6192 -59 6135 -116 646 679 33 723 77 8447 8486 39 8601 154 ( 1928-1934) Total Delta Exports (1922-1994) Surplus Delta Outflow ( 1928-1934) Surplus Delta Outflow (1922-1994) Outline Address Climate Change in the California water Plan A simplified approach to account for changes in Run off due to Climate Change Case Study ( In-Delta Storage) Re-engineered Delta Wetlands Project Bacon and Webb (Storage) Holland and Bouldin (Habitat) Summary Of Climate Change Study Results calsim 2 Study 1922 - 1997 Base Case Delivery (TAF) Diff Total Carryover Storage Trinity Oroville Flow Shasta Folsom San Luis (TAF) 5740 - 5896 156 1794 2232 462 429 701 1861 442 703 (D 1641) C. C Impacts (D 1641) 2254 461 VISION for 2008 CWEMF Sub Committee Water Plan Training, New Models, Large Modeling Efforts, Modeling User Groups