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Climate change…Impacts, vulnerabilities…Adaptation, land use, territorial cohesion…Spatial planning…Eco-innovations No challenges stand in isolation Ronan Uhel Head, Natural Systems and Vulnerability European Environment Agency 1 Why is adaptation important ? • • • • • 2 Climate change cannot be totally avoided Anticipatory adaptation can be more effective and less costly than “retrofitting” or “emergency adaptation” Climate change may be more rapid and pronounced than currently known Immediate benefits from adaptation to current climate variability and extreme events Avoid maladaptive policies and practices Direct losses from weather and climate related disasters •The number of disastrous weather and climate related events in Europe increased by about 65% over 19982007 compared to the 1980s •About 95% of economic losses caused by catastrophic events in Europe since 1980 are attributable to climate and weather. This is mainly due to socio-economic development but changing patterns of weather disasters are also drivers. •In the second half of the century more severe effects of climate change on economic assets 3 4 In search of reactive, corrective and anticipative Measures and Technologies ‘The existence of a possible threat from climate change in itself acts as a stimulus to innovators, and eco-innovation may prove the next battle ground for the reputation of patents.’ European Patents Organisation, 2009 5 6 Vulnerable sectors • Ecosystems and biodiversity • Agriculture and forestry • Water resources, flooding, water quality • Coastal zones, marine resources, fisheries • Tourism • Energy (supply and demand) • Built environment, infrastructure • Human health • Land management, regional planning (cross-cutting) • Insurance services 7 Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability exposure sensitivity impact vulnerability 8 adaptation, adaptive capacity Cities in the frontline... 80 % of Europeans soon ’urban’ 9 10 11 Heat and health… …up to water management 12 High Temperatures Range of actions and techniques available to increase adaptive capacity 13 Shaw, R., Colley, M., and Connell, R. (2007) Climate change adaptation by design: a guide for sustainable communities. TCPA, London Cool down… …air TREE concept! Viva Madrid 14 …TREE in cities… Up to 10 C difference between peri-urban and central areas 100 m2 of trees help reduce T by 1 C Green surfaces 10 C cooler than artificial ones …but there is more… 15 Intensive uptake and sealing of soil surface 16 ...causing more damaging flash floods 17 More control of water run offs • • • • • • 18 Preventive measures including good housekeeping and rainwater harvesting Vegetated landscape features with smooth surfaces and a gentle downhill gradient to drain water evenly off impermeable surfaces Infiltration devices, such as soakaways, which allow water to drain directly into the ground Permeable and porous pavements Basins, reed beds and ponds designed to hold water when it rains Green roofs and reuse of water Mimic natural processes! 19 Source: UK Environment Agency Green roofing, Europe lagging behind • • • • • • 20 Stormwater management, and hence potential savings since the number of drainage outlets required on a building can be reduced Reduced urban heat island effect by reducing building heat loss and increasing evapotranspiration Creating natural green spaces in urban areas bringing benefits for biodiversity Reduced energy consumption and fuel costs, since green roofs provide cooling in summer and thermal insulation in winter Reduced air pollution Extended roof life. The green roof protects the roof’s waterproofing membrane, almost doubling its life expectancy Living Roofs www.livingroofs.org Green Roofs for healthy cities www.greenroofs.net Greening the roofs…manage water! 21 Are cities to blame ? 22Photo: Jörg Thiemann-Linden Turn urbanisation into an opportunity ! 23 ACE Declaration on Architecture and Sustainability: •Change practices •Sustainable design •Foster environment competence •Institutional leadership •Interdisciplinary approaches •Broaden service & outreach 24 …also streamlined responses from professionals 25 26 27 28 Crop for …food…feed…fuel – All? 29 Growing season for agricultural crops past • The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North, favouring the introduction of new species • Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from delayed spring frost Rate of change of crop growing season length 1975-2007 future • A further lengthening of the growing season is projected • In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder plant growth 30 Crop-yield variability past • Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme weather events Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat 31 future • More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude Agro-climatic zone - Risks and opportunities 32 European Commission Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector AGRI-2006-G4-05 What about vertical farming? 33 …some fast cropping concepts! 34 35 Source: Corporate Communications City of Melbourne River flow drought Change in the severity of river flow droughts in Europe 1962-1990 Relative change in mean summer minimum 7-day river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 future • Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe • Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions 36 past • Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades (e.g. 2003 in central parts and 2005 in the Iberian Peninsula) • Climate change has probably increased the frequency/severity of droughts in some regions Draft EU Guidance: How to adapt to climate change with regard to water issues and EU water legislation • Being prepared by countries and Commission (Water FWD) for river basin management plans (RBMP) due in 2015, only few 2009 RBMPs include adaptation National Adaptation Strategies 37 Wade et al., adapted by EEA Coming to Coastal areas… 38 100 Mt of sediments lost to coastal systems every year! River management hinterland! 39 40 Coastal new design… 41 …or an opportunity? 42 May be reinventing ancient cities? Seuthopolis -300 BC 43 Tourism and recreation… Simulated conditions for summer tourism in Europe (IPCC SRES A2 scenario) 44 45 How to approach innovation? 46 …or bring skiing to cities? 47 48 guidance funding exchange Is that sufficient? 49 50 Human health for instance… • More extreme weather events, including heat waves • Increased air pollution (eg. ozone) • Increased vector-borne illnesses • Increased illnesses from food and water contamination • Increased disparities in health status 51 Vector-borne diseases Aedes albopictus (the tiger mosquito) 52 Vector-borne diseases Presence of the tiger mosquito in January 2008 past • The tiger mosquito, a transmitter of various viruses extended its range over the past 15 years • Ticks and Lyme disease and TBE are moving into higher altitudes and latitudes • Changes in the distribution of the sand-fly with a higher risk of Leishmania cases further north Areas of possible establishment of tiger mosquito in Europe 2030 future • Increasing risk of vector-borne transmission of diseases and in number of days suitable for the survival of malaria vectors. However the risk of localised malaria transmission is low. 53 54 As a way of conclusion - Current measures: reactive or proactive? • Regional and local governmental organizations, NGOs and the private sector have started to adopt new policies, regulations and standards accounting for climate change (role of insurance sector) • Measures mainly in areas with a long tradition of dealing with climate extremes such as flood defence • Many adaptation actions have been initiated because of the substantial losses from extreme weather events in recent years • Policies and measures designed to address long-term climate change impacts have not been developed to the same extent 55 Challenges for integration of adaptation into other policies and measures • Scientific uncertainty (low level of confidence in climate change scenarios of extreme events at high spatial resolution) • Policy action at regional/local level (need for stakeholder involvement; gaps in knowledge on potential adaptation policies and measures; lack of resources) • Costs of adaptation and benefits assessments (gaps in knowledge; how to identify “win-win” or “no-regret” options, justified under many plausible scenarios) • Coordination between sectors (how to enhance efficiency and effectiveness of measures with many organisations involved) 56 Overall 57 • Need to develop policy framework at European, national and regional/local levels • Integrate (“mainstream”) adaptation into other policies and measures • Enhance research (EU and national) on vulnerability assessments (including scenarios), good practices and costs and benefits, with stakeholder involvement • Improve management practices for non-climatic reasons, as potential to reduce vulnerability • Exchange experiences amongst relevant stakeholders (public and private; EU/national/regional/local) • Communicate risks clearly to those affected and the actions they can take Thank you for attention More information on EEA web page http://eea.europa.eu The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent information on the environment 58