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Climate change…Impacts,
vulnerabilities…Adaptation, land use,
territorial cohesion…Spatial
planning…Eco-innovations
No challenges stand in isolation
Ronan Uhel
Head, Natural Systems and Vulnerability
European Environment Agency
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Why is adaptation important ?
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Climate change cannot be totally avoided
Anticipatory adaptation can be more effective
and less costly than “retrofitting” or
“emergency adaptation”
Climate change may be more rapid and
pronounced than currently known
Immediate benefits from adaptation to
current climate variability and extreme
events
Avoid maladaptive policies and practices
Direct losses from weather and climate
related disasters
•The number of disastrous weather and climate related
events in Europe increased by about 65% over 19982007 compared to the 1980s
•About 95% of economic losses caused by catastrophic
events in Europe since 1980 are attributable to climate
and weather. This is mainly due to socio-economic
development but changing patterns of weather
disasters are also drivers.
•In the second half of the century more severe effects
of climate change on economic assets
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In search of reactive, corrective and
anticipative Measures and Technologies
‘The existence of a possible threat from
climate change in itself acts as a stimulus
to innovators, and eco-innovation may
prove the next battle ground for the
reputation of patents.’
European Patents Organisation, 2009
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Vulnerable sectors
• Ecosystems and biodiversity
• Agriculture and forestry
• Water resources, flooding, water quality
• Coastal zones, marine resources, fisheries
• Tourism
• Energy (supply and demand)
• Built environment, infrastructure
• Human health
• Land management, regional planning (cross-cutting)
• Insurance services
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Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
exposure
sensitivity
impact
vulnerability
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adaptation,
adaptive capacity
Cities in the frontline...
80
%
of Europeans soon ’urban’
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Heat and health…
…up to water management
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High Temperatures
Range of actions
and techniques
available to
increase adaptive
capacity
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Shaw, R., Colley, M., and Connell, R. (2007)
Climate change adaptation by design: a guide for sustainable communities.
TCPA, London
Cool down…
…air TREE
concept!
Viva Madrid
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…TREE in cities…
Up to 10 C difference
between peri-urban and
central areas
100 m2 of trees help
reduce T by 1 C
Green surfaces 10 C
cooler than artificial
ones
…but there is more…
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Intensive uptake and sealing of soil surface
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...causing more damaging flash floods
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More control of water run offs
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Preventive measures including good
housekeeping and rainwater harvesting
Vegetated landscape features with smooth
surfaces and a gentle downhill gradient to drain
water evenly off impermeable surfaces
Infiltration devices, such as soakaways, which
allow water to drain directly into the ground
Permeable and porous pavements
Basins, reed beds and ponds designed to hold
water when it rains
Green roofs and reuse of water
Mimic natural processes!
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Source: UK Environment Agency
Green roofing, Europe lagging behind
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Stormwater management, and hence potential
savings since the number of drainage outlets
required on a building can be reduced
Reduced urban heat island effect by reducing
building heat loss and increasing
evapotranspiration
Creating natural green spaces in urban areas
bringing benefits for biodiversity
Reduced energy consumption and fuel costs, since
green roofs provide cooling in summer and thermal
insulation in winter
Reduced air pollution
Extended roof life. The green roof protects the
roof’s waterproofing membrane, almost doubling
its life expectancy
Living Roofs www.livingroofs.org
Green Roofs for healthy cities www.greenroofs.net
Greening the roofs…manage water!
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Are cities to blame ?
22Photo:
Jörg Thiemann-Linden
Turn urbanisation
into an opportunity !
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ACE Declaration on
Architecture and
Sustainability:
•Change practices
•Sustainable design
•Foster environment
competence
•Institutional leadership
•Interdisciplinary approaches
•Broaden service & outreach
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…also streamlined responses from professionals
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Crop for …food…feed…fuel – All?
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Growing season for agricultural crops
past
• The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North,
favouring the introduction of new species
• Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from
delayed spring frost
Rate of change of crop growing
season length 1975-2007
future
• A further lengthening of the growing season is projected
• In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder
plant growth
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Crop-yield variability
past
• Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has
increased as a consequence of extreme weather events
Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat
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future
• More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to
increase in frequency and magnitude
Agro-climatic zone - Risks and opportunities
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European Commission
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector
AGRI-2006-G4-05
What about vertical farming?
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…some fast cropping concepts!
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Source: Corporate Communications City of Melbourne
River flow drought
Change in the severity of river flow
droughts in Europe 1962-1990
Relative change in mean
summer minimum 7-day
river flow between
2071-2100 and 1961-1990
future
• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe
• Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but
minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions
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past
• Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades (e.g. 2003 in central
parts and 2005 in the Iberian Peninsula)
• Climate change has probably increased the frequency/severity of droughts in some regions
Draft EU Guidance: How to adapt to climate change with
regard to water issues and EU water legislation
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Being prepared by countries and Commission (Water FWD) for river
basin management plans (RBMP) due in 2015, only few 2009 RBMPs
include adaptation
National
Adaptation
Strategies 
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Wade et al., adapted by EEA
Coming to Coastal areas…
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100 Mt of sediments lost to coastal systems
every year! River management hinterland!
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Coastal new design…
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…or an opportunity?
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May be reinventing ancient cities?
Seuthopolis -300 BC
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Tourism and recreation…
Simulated conditions for summer tourism in Europe (IPCC SRES
A2 scenario)
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How to approach innovation?
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…or bring skiing to cities?
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guidance
funding
exchange
Is that sufficient?
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Human health for instance…
• More extreme weather events, including
heat waves
• Increased air pollution (eg. ozone)
• Increased vector-borne illnesses
• Increased illnesses from food and water
contamination
• Increased disparities in health status
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Vector-borne diseases
Aedes albopictus (the tiger mosquito)
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Vector-borne diseases
Presence of the tiger mosquito
in January 2008
past
• The tiger mosquito, a transmitter of various viruses extended its range over the past 15 years
• Ticks and Lyme disease and TBE are moving into higher altitudes and latitudes
• Changes in the distribution of the sand-fly with a higher risk of Leishmania cases further north
Areas of possible establishment of
tiger mosquito in Europe 2030
future
• Increasing risk of vector-borne transmission of diseases and in number of days suitable for the
survival of malaria vectors. However the risk of localised malaria transmission is low.
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As a way of conclusion - Current measures:
reactive or proactive?
• Regional and local governmental organizations, NGOs and
the private sector have started to adopt new policies,
regulations and standards accounting for climate change
(role of insurance sector)
• Measures mainly in areas with a long tradition of dealing
with climate extremes such as flood defence
• Many adaptation actions have been initiated because of
the substantial losses from extreme weather events in
recent years
• Policies and measures designed to address long-term
climate change impacts have not been developed to the
same extent
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Challenges for integration of adaptation
into other policies and measures
• Scientific uncertainty (low level of confidence in climate
change scenarios of extreme events at high spatial
resolution)
• Policy action at regional/local level (need for stakeholder
involvement; gaps in knowledge on potential adaptation
policies and measures; lack of resources)
• Costs of adaptation and benefits assessments (gaps in
knowledge; how to identify “win-win” or “no-regret”
options, justified under many plausible scenarios)
• Coordination between sectors (how to enhance efficiency
and effectiveness of measures with many organisations
involved)
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Overall
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Need to develop policy framework at European, national
and regional/local levels
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Integrate (“mainstream”) adaptation into other policies
and measures
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Enhance research (EU and national) on vulnerability
assessments (including scenarios), good practices and
costs and benefits, with stakeholder involvement
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Improve management practices for non-climatic
reasons, as potential to reduce vulnerability
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Exchange experiences amongst relevant stakeholders
(public and private; EU/national/regional/local)
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Communicate risks clearly to those affected and the
actions they can take
Thank you for attention
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