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CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering modeling of climate change predictions from models 21 February 2021 team selection and project topic proposal (paragraph): due TODAY 2/21 poster project due Thursday - electronically exam on first half of class: 3.1.2012 some pre-warned questions for the exam on the 1st : • what is the average global percent increase in [CO2]/yr since 1959? • what is the solar energy input [w/m2] at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere? • what is the average albedo of the Earth [%]? • what is the solar cycle variability in solar output measured at top of Earth’s atmosphere? [%] • how many degrees [°C] is the Earth warmer with greenhouse gases than without? • what ~ percent of global carbon emissions stays in the Earth’s atmosphere? • what is the pre-industrial (1750) level of [CO2] [ppm]? • what is the current level of [CO2] [ppm]? • the carbon cycle • where does CO2 come from and where does it go • key components of the climate system • what goes into a climate model • what are feedback mechanisms • where are we in the syllabus: latest version always on website components of the system speeds in the system source: IPCC 2007 The Climate System - very complicated modeled global temperature changes from various [CO2] changes feedbacks are important and modify “normal” models significantly summary of model results for feedbacks Figure 8.14 climate feedback parameters: WV=water vapor, C=cloud, A=albedo,LR=lapse rate, IPCC Salawitch the models relative radiative forcings 1890 – 1990 from models solar volcanoes Figure 9.1 pressure height above surface GHG sulphate aerosol ozone total components of modeled global temp change 1890-1990 (a) solar forcing, (b) volcanoes, c) GHG, (d) tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes, (e) sulphate aerosol forcing, (f) sum of all forcings, for 1000mb to 10 mb, 0 - 30 km. what does the IPCC have to say about models and the past 100 years detection and attribution of causes basis for attribution of causes for climate change: • detection: process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change • attribution of causes: process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. precipitation – obsvd & modeled Figure 8.5 a) observed mean annual precip (cm) for 1980-1999 b) multi-model mean same time period do predictions agree with observations IPCC Observations and Model Comparison Temperature Change, 1900 - Present With human-induced influence Without human-induced influence Observations Natural + Human-induced black = observations red = modeled natural + human Natural blue = modeled natural alone influence of anthropogenic and natural radiative forcings in models: • significant cooling due to aerosols is a robust feature of a wide range of detection analyses • GHG by themselves would have caused more than the observed warming • high variance between models - how to identify the aerosol fingerprint (short life) • using nearly any solar model shows that solar forcing cannot match the observed change • nonlinearities are not understood (e.g. do forcings just add - most assume this) synthesis of observed & modeled climate changes – IPCC 2007 basis for attribution of causes for climate change: • detection: process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change • attribution of causes: process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. IPCC statements on Detection “little observational evidence of a detectable human influence on climate” 1990 Report “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” 1995 Report “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”, “warming over the 20th century is very unlikely to be due to internal variability alone as estimated by current models” 2001 Report “the observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past 50 years can be explained without external [human] forcing, and very likely that it is not due to known natural causes alone.” 2007 Report this is the “scientific” consensus, is it right? contrarians I have been dismayed over the bogus science and media hype associated with the (dangerous) human-induced global warming hypothesis. My innate sense of how the atmosphere-ocean functions does not allow me to accept these scenarios. Observations and theory do not support these ideas. (Professor Emeritus William Gray, CSU, 2006) Predictions of harmful climatic effects due to future increases in hydrocarbon use and minor GHG like CO2 do not conform to current experimental knowledge, Robinson et al, 2007 On the most important issue, the IPCC’s claim that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [emphasis in the original],” NIPCC reaches the opposite conclusion — namely, that natural causes are very likely to be the dominant cause. Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC - http://www.nipccreport.org/) Climate Projections for the 21st century (based on the models) results of the models – the predictions and the assignment of cause - are a very polarizing issue Revelle and Suess (1957): “human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years” Singer , Hot Talk, Cold Science (1997): Industrialized nations are poised to adopt policies that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars “to mitigate disasters that exist only on computer printouts and in the feverish imaginations of professional environmental zealots” the models use a set of economic scenarios, from “business as usual” = just keep ramping up carbon useage (A2), to models that take into account economic changes to a service/inofrmation based economy with reductions in material intensity and use of clean and resource-efficient technologies (B1) scenario assumptions: • fossil fuel use • population change • economic growth • technological innovation • attitudes to social and environmental sustainability • land use change various scenarios of warming based on various economic models Figure 10.4 multi-model means of surface warming relative to 1980-1999 for various scenarios. Shading shows 1 std dev range. B1, A1B, A2 are low, med, hi scenarios. # give IPCC 2007 number of models run into that period Figure 10.12 multimodel mean changes for A1B scenario – 2090 relative to 1990 extreme events: • increased risk of more intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves • decrease in the diurnal temp range in most regions • fewer frost days • longer growing season • increased summer dryness and winter wetness in NH midlats and high lats • increase in extreme rainfall intensity • evidence that future tropical cyclones could be come more severe as it usually appears in print - not adjusted for a baseline $$ - and in Al Gore’s film same data adjusted for a baseline $$ IPCC 2007 Projected changes in annual temperatures for the 2050s source: GISS BW 11 The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about 1% increase per year in CO2 -30% -10 0 10 +30% South Florida: 1-m rise in Sea Level Change in January Average Daily Maximum Temperature (doubling of CO2) source: Hotchkiss and Stone (2000) Change in July Average Daily Precipitation (doubling of CO2) source: Hotchkiss and Stone (2000) Vegetation Changes for Modeled Doubling of Carbon Dioxide Present now Color Code: Temperate forests Grasslands Deserts Savanna Tropical seasonal forest Tropical moist forest CO2 doubling by 2050 Ice Tundra Boreal forests source: IPCC, 1996 x 2 CO2 Current Changes current --> 2050 Future ozone air pollution Peak 8-Hr Ozone [ppbv] (EPA Standard = 80 ppbv) WSU/LAR - Lamb et al. Difference difference winter summer Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions Regional Climate Modeling Pacific NW • temp increases: 2.2F/2025, 3.5F/2045, 5.9F/2080 • April 1 snowpack down by 30% across state by 2025, down 40% by 2045 • primary impact on Puget Sound will be a shift in the timing of peak river flow from late spring to late winter • shorter irrigation season • annual hydro production will decrease by a few % • reservoir systems will likely be less able to supply water to all users – 30% by 2025 • due to increased summer temps, area burned by fire is expecdted to double by 2045 • rising stream temps will likely reduce quality and extent of salmon habitat • warming is expected during all seasons • sea level increases 2-13 inches by 2100 • projected changes in annual precipitation averaged over all models are small (1-2%) • impact of climate change on crops will be mild in short term with increasing effects • yields of dry land wheat will increase 2-8% by 2025 a quick look at global energy sources and projected demand Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009) 350 CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1) 300 250 92% of growth 200 150 100 50 0 China India US -50 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010 World global energy production by type greenhouse gas emissions global GHG emissions (anthropogenic) to 2004 Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2009 China 1600 (C tons x 1,000,000) Carbon Emissions per year 2000 USA 1200 800 India Russian Fed. 400 Japan 0 1990 93 95 97 99 2001 03 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010 05 07 2009 2500 (tons x 1,000,000) 1500 5 4 3 1000 500 0 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010 2 1 0 Per Capita Emissions 2000 6 (tons C person y-1) Total Carbon Emissions Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2009 (PgC) 10 Source 7.7±0.5 5 deforestation atmospheric CO2 Sink CO2 flux (PgC y-1) fossil fuel emissions land 5 ocean 2.4 (Residual) 2.3±0.4 (5 models) 10 1850 1.1±0.7 4.1±0.1 1900 1950 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 2000 ppp=purchasing power parity toe per capita 1971 - 2003 by region; mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent Who has the oil? USA China India (http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html) Total global energy demand 70% increase (International Energy Outlook 2006) Energy use by type (International Energy Outlook 2006) Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1) Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 9 Observed Projected A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average 8 B1 Models Average B2 Models Average 7 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 Time (y) Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 2010 2015