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Climate Changes Over the Past Millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean Climates Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA Historical Reconstruction of Climate Variability and Change in Mediterranean Regions Bologna, Italy Oct. 5, 2004 Annual Resolution Proxy Climate Indicators INSTRUMENTAL TEMPERATURE RECORD GLOBAL PROXY CLIMATE RECORDS Reconstructed Surface Temperatures Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, 1998. Reconstructed Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Greater variability in extratropics and summer! Mann, M.E., Ammann, C., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J.T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., On Past Temperatures and Anomalous late 20th Century Warmth, Eos, 84, 256-258, 2003 [MODIFIED: Boreholes—Rutherford and Mann (2004); Crowley & Lowery (updated)] Reconstructed Surface Temperatures Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, 1998. Reconstructions of NAO index Black: Instrumental NAO Blue: Cook NAO Red: Luterbacher et al NAO Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Briffa, K.R. “The evolution of climate over the last millennium” Science 292, 2001, 662667 Global influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Reconstructions of ENSO Indices Black: Instrumental SOI Blue: Stahle et al SOI Red: Mann et al Nino3 (x-1) Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Briffa, K.R. “The evolution of climate over the last millennium” Science 292, 2001, 662667 CLIMATE FORCINGS Volcanism 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Solar Natural Crowley, T.J., Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289 270-277, 2000. 2000 CLIMATE FORCINGS Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Industrial Aerosols Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004. Seasonal Spatial Patterns Temperature Anomaly (oC) Warm Season (MXD) Cold Season (multiproxy) Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Osborn, T.J., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor network, Journal of Climate (in revision), 2004. Volcanic Radiative Summer Cooling Ensemble average summer (Jun-Aug) surface temperature response following eruption of Pinatubo. Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, R., Mann, M.E., Volcanic and Solar forcing of Climate Change During the Pre-Industrial era, Journal of Climate, 16, 4094-4107, 2003. Volcanic Winter Dynamical Warming Ensemble average winter (Dec-Feb) surface temperature response following eruption of Pinatubo. Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, R., Mann, M.E., Volcanic and Solar forcing of Climate Change During the Pre-Industrial era, Journal of Climate, 16, 4094-4107, 2003. Influence of Natural Radiative Forcing Crowley, T.J., Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289 270-277, 2000. Volcanism 1000 1200 1400 1600 Solar “Maunder Minimum” 1800 2000 European Winter Cooling During the Little Ice Age Empirical LIA winter cooling in Europe associated with an NAO trend due to solar irradiance changes, interacting w/ stratospheric atmospheric dynamics and chemistry NASA/GISS Model Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 21492152, 2001. Annual average late 17th vs late 18th Century Temperature change Proxy based reconstruction GCM Solar + Volcanic patterns Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, R., Mann, M.E., Volcanic and Solar forcing of Climate Change During the Pre-Industrial era, Journal of Climate, 16, 40944107, 2003. Volcanic Forcing of El Nino? Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like Response to Volcanic Forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278, 2003. Theoretical mechanism for natural radiative forcing of El Nino Cane, M.A., A.C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, S.E. Zebiak, and R. Murtugudde, Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends, Science, 275, 957-960, 1997. Theoretical mechanism for natural radiative forcing of El Nino Combined response to Solar +Volcanic Forcing Ensemble mean Nino3 (100 realizations of CZ model) 40 year smooth Palymra coral isotopes (standardized to have same mean and standard deviation as Nino3 composite series) Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of El Niño Over the Past 1000 Years, in revision, 2004. Theoretical mechanism for natural radiative forcing of El Nino Theoretical mechanism for natural radiative forcing of El Nino Courtesy of E.Cook CONCLUSIONS •Proxy reconstructions and model simulations both suggest that late 20th century hemispheric-scale warmth is anomalous in the context of the past 1000-2000 years. Recent evidence suggests that recent warmth at more regional scales, including Europe, may be anomalous. •Important differences between estimates of extratropical and full (combined tropical and extratropical) hemispheric mean temperature changes in past centuries appear consistent with seasonal and spatially-specific responses to climate forcing. •Forced changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation such as the NAO, and internal dynamics related to El Nino, may play an important role in explaining regional patterns of variability and change in regions such as Europe, the Mediterranean, and western North America. Mid-Latitude Summers Greater variability? Esper, J., Cook, E.R., Schweingruber, F.H., LowFrequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability, Science, 295, 2250-2253, 2002. Mid-Latitude Summers Greater variability? 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000