Download Assessment Synthesis Slides OEWG 3Aug2011

Synthesis Report of the
Scientific Assessment Panel (SAP)
Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP)
Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP)
31st Meeting of the Open-Ended Working Group of the
Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol
1–5 August 2011
Montreal, Canada
Today’s Summary:
Synthesis Report Findings
The Synthesis Report Team
SAP
Co-chairs:
Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo)
Paul A. Newman (USA)
John A. Pyle (UK)
A.R. Ravishankara (USA)
Coordinator:
Christine A. Ennis (USA)
EEAP
Co-chairs:
Janet F. Bornman (New Zealand)
Nigel D. Paul (UK)
Xiaoyan Tang (China)
TEAP
Co-chairs:
Stephen O. Andersen (USA)
Lambert J.M. Kuijpers (The Netherlands)
Marta Pizano (Colombia)
Overall Assistance and Coordination: Megumi Seki (UNEP)
The Assessments
• The SAP, EEAP, and TEAP Assessment Reports were published
in early 2011
• All reports were fully reviewed by the international community
• The Synthesis Report was prepared in June 2011 and
summarizes key findings of all 3 assessment reports
Overarching Synthesis Findings of
the SAP, the EEAP, and the TEAP
• Stratospheric Ozone and Climate: Intricately coupled.
o Ozone as well as ODSs impact climate, and both are impacted by climate.
o Hence, it may be prudent to consider ozone layer and climate protection together for
various decision making.
o The magnitudes of the consequences of climate-ozone interactions for health,
biodiversity, ecosystem function and feedbacks are currently uncertain.
• Hydrofluorocarbons: Alternatives with lower GWPs are emerging.
o HFCs have low ODPs but high GWPs. If unabated, they could grow to become 20%
of all GWP-weighted GHG emissions by 2050.
o It is technically and economically feasible to accelerate the phase-out of ODSs, to
phase down the use of high-GWP HFCs, and to leapfrog the use of high-GWP HFCs
as alternatives for most HCFC applications.
o Breakdown products from HFC and HCFC uses, such as trifluoroacetic acid (TFA),
are not expected to be a significant risk to health or the environment.
• Methyl Bromide: Further control is still possible.
o For example, approximately 20–35% of present global consumption of methyl
bromide for quarantine and pre-shipment (QPS) uses could be replaced with
available alternatives.
The Science Panel Report: Key Findings
The Full Report
The Executive Summary
Key Findings of the SAP
Let us look at these individually…..
ODSs
ODSs are behaving as expected
Climate
Change
Climate change and ozone layer are
intricately coupled. Climate change
will become more important. MP can
potentially influence climate
Ozone
hole
Ozone hole continues to persist, as
expected. It is expected to recover
later this century.
Global
ozone
Global ozone depletion is smaller than
the ozone hole. It has not gotten worse
because of the MP. Expected to recover
towards the middle of this century.
Global
UV
Change
Surface UV changes are small to date.
In the future, it will be influenced by
climate change more than ozone
depletion.
Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs)
The abundances of ODSs in the atmosphere are responding as expected
to the controls of the Montreal Protocol.
 Total chlorine from ODSs continues to decline in both the lower atmosphere and
the stratosphere.
 CFCs (not methyl chloroform) now contributing most to the chlorine decline.
 Total bromine from ODSs is declining in the lower atmosphere and is no longer
increasing in the stratosphere.
 For the first time, the global atmospheric abundance of bromine from halons
stopped increasing, and halon-1211 actually declined.
 Abundances of most HFCs and HCFCs are growing in the atmosphere. Some
HCFCs (e.g., HCFC-22, HCFC-142b) increased faster than expected during the
past four years.
Emission or Production (Gg/yr)
Chapter 1, Figure 1-5, 2010 SAP Report
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
Global Surface Mixing Ratio (ppt)
Carbon Tetrachloride
Chapter 1, Figure 1-1, 2010 SAP Report
110
105
NOAA data
100
AGAGE data
95
Scenario A1
2006 Assessment
90
85
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
 CCl4 continues to decrease in the atmosphere, but its abundance is not
consistent with reported emissions and known lifetimes.
 Emissions derived from data reported to UNEP are highly variable and on
average appear smaller than those inferred from observed trends.
 Although the size of this discrepancy is sensitive to uncertainties in our
knowledge of CCl4 lifetime, the variability cannot be explained by lifetime
uncertainties alone.
 Errors in reporting, errors in analysis of reported data, and/or unknown
sources are likely responsible for the year-to-year discrepancies.
The Ozone Layer and Climate Change
The ozone layer and climate change are intricately coupled, and climate
change will become increasingly more important to the future ozone layer.
 Increasing abundances of radiatively important gases, especially carbon
dioxide(CO2) and methane (CH4), are expected to significantly affect
future stratospheric ozone through effects on temperature, winds, and
chemistry.
 For the next few decades, the decline in ODSs will dominate the recovery
of the ozone layer.
 As ODSs decline, climate change and other factors are expected to
become increasingly more important to the future ozone layer.
 Ozone levels globally and at midlatitudes may even become larger than
those before 1980.
Antarctic Ozone Hole
 The ozone hole that occurs in austral springtime is projected to
recover later in the century than any other region of the globe.
 The Antarctic ozone hole is much less influenced by climate
change than other areas of the globe.
 ODSs primarily determine when the ozone hole will heal.
Arctic vs. Antarctic Ozone
Chapter 2, Figure 2-14, 2010 SAP Report
Many factors control ozone depletion
-Meteorology
-Temperature in specific regions
-Available EESC
-Formation of vortex and “pre O3 value”
-Duration, shape, and movement of vortex
-“Saturation” in Antarctica vs. not in Arctic
Key Point:
Confluence of natural and human emitted ODS contribute to ozone
depletion…. so variations in the “natural” part can have major effect
Differences between ozone hole and Arctic Depletion are expected.
Arctic ozone depletion at its maximum does not exceed that in the ozone
hole.
The Global Ozone Layer
 Control of ODSs by the Montreal Protocol has
protected the ozone layer from much higher levels
of depletion.
 Globally, the ozone layer is projected to recover to
its 1980 level before the middle of this century.
Surface Ultraviolet Radiation
The ozone layer and surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation are
responding as expected to the ODS reductions achieved
under the Montreal Protocol.
 Global surface UV levels have not increased significantly
because the global ozone loss has been limited.
 If there were no MP, the surface UV levels would have been
large
 Factors other than stratospheric ozone will determine surface
UV levels in the future.
Montreal Protocol and Climate
MP benefited climate change via control of ODSs, which are
also greenhouse gases.
Figure from Executive Summary and Chapter 5, Figure 5-6:
 Co-benefits of Montreal Protocol for climate:
D ODS ≈ 5 x D CO2 (of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol).
HCFCs, HFCs, and PFCs
Chapter 1 , Figure 1-24, 2010 SAP Report
 HCFCs are “transitional”
substitutes. However, they are still
increasing rapidly.
 Effects of 2007 agreements on
HCFCs are not yet visible
 HCFCs are being replaced by
HFCs (climate effect)
 PFCs, which are “eternal gases”
and, hence, very potent
greenhouse gases, are increasing
rapidly.
Other Information
 The accelerated HCFC phase-out agreed to in 2007 is
projected to reduce ozone depletion and to help reduce climate
forcing.
 New fluorocarbons, suggested as possible replacements for
HCFC and HFC that are potent greenhouse gases, are less
potent greenhouse gases.
 Nitrous oxide (N2O) is known to both deplete global ozone and
warm the climate. The current ODP-weighted anthropogenic
emission is larger than that of any ODS.
 Geo-engineering: Deliberate large injections of sulfurcontaining compounds into the stratosphere would alter the
radiative, dynamical, and chemical state of the stratosphere
and could be expected to have substantial unintended effects
on stratospheric ozone levels.
Ozone Hole and Surface Climate
 The impact of ozone hole on surface climate has become more
evident. There are many influences on climate from the ozone
hole.
 The Antarctic ozone hole has caused wind pattern changes in the
Southern Hemisphere lower atmosphere.
 Because of these changes, for example, the surface climate has
warmed over the Antarctic Peninsula and cooled over the high
plateau.
Options and Expected Gains
Chapter 5 , Figure 5-2,
2010 SAP report
 Options for further limiting future emissions of ODSs could
advance recovery dates by a few years;
 However, the impact these potential emission reductions on
future ozone levels would be less than what has already been
accomplished by the Montreal Protocol. (Make sure that
emissions do not go up! and possible actions on HFCs)
 Report lists some specific options and expected gains.
The EEAP Report: Environmental Effects Findings
Consequences of Ozone Layer Depletion and
Climate Change on UV-radiation
Air quality
Materials
Health
Terrestrial ecosystems
Aquatic ecosystems
Biogeochemical cycles
Janet F. Bornman (New Zealand), Nigel Paul (UK),
Xiaoyan Tang (China)
The EEAP Report: Environmental Effects Findings
Consequences of Ozone Layer Depletion and
Climate Change on UV-radiation
Overview
Assessment of future predictions of the effects of
ozone, clouds & aerosols for:
UV-B radiation
deleterious to human
health
UV-B radiation involved
in human vitamin D
production
Ecosystem function, air quality, and damage to
construction materials
Ozone depletion, climate change, and UV radiation
Projected future changes in UV: ozone and clouds
At high latitudes: cloud
cover increases (by ca 5%)
At low latitudes (near the
equator): cloud cover
decreases by ca 3%
Reduction of UV radiation
(UV already low)
Increase in UV radiation
(UV already high)
Less risk of skin cancer and
less easy to produce
sufficient vitamin D
Greater risk of skin cancer:
additional increase in
sunburning-UV of 3 to 6%
Tropospheric air quality
Assessment of the interactive effects of ozone depletion
and other components of environmental change on air
quality, human health and ecosystems
Surface (tropospheric) ozone in mid-latitudes is
predicted to increase because of climate change and
interactions with atmospheric chemistry
Breakdown of CFC replacements:
Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA): currently judged as a
negligible risk to human health or the environment
Tropospheric air quality
•
UV initiates production of hydroxyl radicals (∙OH), which
are atmospheric ‘cleaning agents,’ destroying many air
pollutants, ODS, photochemical smog
•
With ozone recovery, less UV; as a result ∙OH is predicted
to decrease globally by ca 20% by 2100
Potential for increased photochemical smog, with
negative effects on human health and the environment
Materials
Assessment of combined effects of UV radiation and
climate change on construction materials used outdoors
UV radiation
degradation of plastics
& wood
Damage due to high
temperatures, humidity, &
atmospheric pollutants
Assessed availability of protective technologies:
Improved service lifetimes of materials
Use of plastic nanocomposites & wood-plastic
composites; nanomaterials as stabilisers
Human health
Assessment of the effects of UV radiation, and
interactions with other environmental change,
on human health include:
Immune
responses
Skin and eye diseases
(especially cancers)
Vitamin D
production
 Higher temperatures may lead to more skin cancers
 Also indications for increases in certain infectious
diseases, allergic diseases, suppression of immune
response to disease, & photosensitivity of the skin
Human health
Exposure to sun-burning UV-B radiation* is a major
environmental risk for skin cancers
M. Norval
Squamous
cell
carcinoma
Basal cell
carcinoma
Non-melanoma
Cutaneous
malignant
melanoma
The Montreal Protocol
has PREVENTED
large increases in skin
cancers that would have
resulted from
uncontrolled ozone
depletion
ALTHOUGH incidence
currently is high
*UV-B radiation, 280-315 nm
Human health
Need to balance the risks of over-exposure to
UV radiation with the beneficial effects of
vitamin D production
Vitamin D is produced in the skin following UV-B irradiation
May decrease risk of:
Supports
bone health
- several internal cancers
- autoimmune & infectious diseases
- cardiovascular diseases
Effectiveness of oral vitamin D supplements, and the health
effects of very high vitamin D status are both unclear
Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
Assessment of the effects of changes in UV radiation,
and interactions with other environmental change on:
Food security &
food quality
Ecosystem responses to UV
radiation & climate
• Terrestrial plant growth has been reduced by ca 6%
in response to increased UV radiation in areas of
significant ozone depletion.
• In many areas, vulnerable aquatic organisms have
been exposed to increased UV radiation.
Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
Combined effects of predicted climate change & UV
radiation: plants and ecosystems
Changing UV-B radiation: large
effects on plant interactions with
pests because of induced
chemical compounds.
Increasing temperature, rainfall
lead to spread of plant pests
Moderate drought:
decreases UV sensitivity
in plants
More frequent drought
& rising temperatures
reduce productivity
Implications for food security and quality
Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
Combined effects of predicted climate change and
UV radiation in aquatic systems
Increasing temperature
increases breakdown of
dissolved organic material
Increasing CO2
Increases acidity (low pH)
Decreases skeletal formation
in calcified organisms
More exposure of aquatic
organisms to solar UV-B
Increased vulnerability to
solar UV‐B radiation
Combined effects may exceed capacity of protective
strategies to adapt to UV radiation
Carbon and other global chemical cycles
Negative effects of
climate change &
UV radiation on
aquatic organisms
Decreased CO2
uptake by the
oceans
Increased run-off of organic matter
from land into the oceans
UV-induced breakdown of this
organic matter
Increased CO2 emissions from the
oceans (also increased NOx )
Resulting increase in atmospheric CO2 may force global
warming beyond current predictions
Carbon and other global chemical cycles
Ecosystem responses to interactions between UV
radiation and climate change will affect global chemical
cycles
The TEAP Report: Key Findings
Stephen O. Andersen
Lambert Kuijpers
Marta Pizano
It is Technically and Economically
Feasible:
•
•
•
•
To accelerate the phase-out of most ODSs
To reduce emissions in many applications
To collect and destroy large amounts of ODSs
To phase-down the use of high-GWP HFCs in
mobile air conditioning and other applications
where ODS have already been phased-out
• To stimulate new technology by implementing HFC
controls to protect climate
Rapidly Emerging Technology to
Avoid & Replace High-GWP HFCs
• Until recently, there were few economic incentives
to avoid and eliminate HFC use and emissions,
where environmentally superior alternatives are
available
• Presently, low-GWP alternatives are being
introduced for most sectors
• The substance with the lowest GWP will not protect
the climate if manufacturing and energy use
dominates the carbon footprint
Actions to Reduce Radiative
Forcing of Climate Change
• European Commission MAC Directive
prescribing GWP<150 in all new cars by 2017
• U.S. EPA “Un-SNAPing” HFC-134a in new cars
• Up to 25% higher MLF financing for climate
friendly solutions
• Proposals by Micronesia and by Mexico,
Canada, and the United States for an
Amendment to control HFC consumption and
production under the Montreal Protocol
Methyl Bromide QPS Opportunity
• There is no obligation or incentive under the
Montreal Protocol to limit methyl bromide
quarantine and pre-shipment (QPS) uses or
emissions
• Nevertheless, some Parties have entirely phased
out QPS uses of MB and others are committed to
phaseout in the near future
• 20-35% of present global use can be replaced with
alternatives available today
Technology Not Yet Available
for Important ODS Uses
• Some metered-dose inhalers (MDIs) and laboratory
and analytical uses still depend on new production
of ODSs under essential use exemptions
• Some important uses still depend on banked and
recycled ODS
– Fire protection depends on halons, refrigeration and air
conditioning service depends on HCFCs and some
CFCs, and minor other uses depend on a variety of
ODSs
Increased Financing Would Slow
Climate Change & Further Protect Ozone
• Article 5 Parties can go beyond Montreal Protocol
compliance by avoiding high-GWP HFCs in the
HCFC phaseout and in applications where the
ODS phaseout is complete can phase down highGWP HFCs and increase the energy efficiency in
refrigeration, air conditioning and foam
applications
Leapfrog Technology is Available
In Some Applications
• Technology is available for Article 5 Parties to
leapfrog high-GWP HFCs in some applications,
which would avoid a second transition out of HFCs
and complications of an increasingly large
inventory of HFC equipment requiring servicing with
HFCs that may be expensive or not easily available
• The same technology is available for non-Article 5
Parties to make the transition away from high-GWP
HFCs in a new transition
• Adequate financing will be needed for Article 5
Parties and regulatory incentives will be required
for non-Article 5 Parties
Banked ODS are Leaking Away
• The opportunity to destroy unwanted ODS refrigerants
is leaking away as equipment reaches end-of-life and
ODSs are discharged
• The co-benefits of ozone and climate protection from
collecting and destroying ODSs likely exceed the costs
– Not profitable without payment for environmental benefit
– More profitable if enterprises were paid for the
contribution to ozone and climate protection
– Economic incentives and infrastructure are not available
in most developing and developed countries
• It is counter-productive to compel collection and
destruction without incentives, because owners may
discharge ODS that would otherwise be available for
paid destruction.
Thank you for
your attention
The Science Panel Report: What’s in it?
 A prologue- a quick way to get up to date on previous assessments
 The “terms-of-reference” were decided at the 19th meeting of the
Parties in Montreal in September 2007. Key ongoing issues and
specific requests included:
• Levels and trends of ODS and related chemicals
o including N2O, HFCs, further information on the CCl4 budget, and information on
very short lived species
• Levels of ozone, UV and their trends
• Continued improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric science
 A general update of science since the 2006 Assessment — 5
scientific chapters
 What is new in science
• The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery
• The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its changes
Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine
(EESC)
A subtlety: “Actual” effective chlorine levels are different in different regions of the stratosphere
Chapter 1, Figure 1-22, 2010 SAP Report
for Antarctic springtime
Stratosphere, calculated with
age-of-air dependent
fractional release values
for midlatitude stratosphere,
calculated with absolute
fractional release values
date of minimum in EESC
second derivative
for midlatitude
stratosphere, calculated
with age-of-air dependent
fractional release values
 Shows that the levels of “available” effective chlorine is different in different regions of the stratosphere
 Shows the differences in the time evolution of effective chlorine in different regions of the stratosphere
 Not new! This effect was already taken care of in models! Shown here explicitly.
Ozone Observations
Chapter 2, Figure 2-2, 2010 SAP Report
 2010 analyses based
mostly on satellite data
(importance of satellite
data!)
 Column ozone trends are
as expected in the polar
region, high-latitudes, and
global levels
 No detectable trend in the
tropics
Evolution of Stratospheric Chlorine
Under the Montreal Protocol
Chapter 1, Figure 1-16, 2010 SAP Report
 Update of figure from 2006 Assessment- extended for 4 more years.
 The trend is clearly - EESC is decreasing and decreasing in the
stratosphere with a “lag”- as expected.
 Decrease in EESC over time is slower than the build-up: Build-up
related mostly to emissions and removal related mostly to ODS lifetimes
Recovery and the World Avoided
Chapter 5 , Figure 5-10, 2010 SAP report
 Unabated emissions of ODSs at the 1970 levels would have been
very detrimental to the ozone layer and, hence, to the surface UV
 Note the very large ozone depletions in the tropics and the very large
increases in surface UV
 Additional consequences to the atmosphere have also been avoided.
Potential for MP to Further Influence Climate?
HFCs, which are substitutes for ODSs, do not deplete ozone (ODP = 0)
but some of them are potent greenhouse gases
Figure from Executive Summary and Chapter 5, Figure 5-6, 2010 SAP report
Global warming
potentials of
HFCs vary a great
deal.
 Potential role of HFCs: Projected GWP-weighted emissions of HFCs by 2025 ≈
GWP-weighted emissions of CFCs at their peak in 1988.