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What Climate Change Means for Sustainable Development WINSTON H YU, World Bank February 2009 Have you watched Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth? 1. 2. Yes No What is the largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Industry Agriculture Waste Energy Supply Transport Residential Land Use Change Global Annual GHG Emissions (1970 – 2004) Sources of GHG Emissions (2004) What % of total CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion) was emitted by industrialized countries in 1900 – 1999? 1. 2. 3. 4. 87% 79% 68% 54% Including land-use change, which country emitted the most per capita in 2000? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Australia Belize Canada Malaysia United States Top 10 country GHG emissions per capita in 2000 100 90 tons CO2e per person 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Belize Qatar Guyana Malaysia UAE Kuwait PN Guinea Brunei Australia Antigua & Bar What observed changes over the past decades can be attributed to human factors? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Temperature rise Increased precipitation Decreased precipitation Sea-level rise All of the above Changes in Precipitation (1900 – 2000) Climate Variability v Climate Change Two key components: •Long-term climate change (50 + years) •Variability (intra-annual and inter-annual variations) Don’t worry, the climate is not really changing that fast! Challenges with Predicting the Future Global emissions future ? Climate variables ? Sectoral response ? Development and poverty The key is decision-making under uncertainty Hydrologic variability presents a key challenge to growth Example: Distribution of river flow Long-term mean and variances may change, but shortterm variability remains What is the Climate in Climate Resilience? Feb 2009 10,000 BC 1850 paleoclimate 1955 1990 - trends climate variability 2009 2040 2100 forecast - projections ------- climate change By how many degrees Celsius is the average global temperature projected to rise by the end of this century? A. B. C. D. E. 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C Depends Projected Changes in Surface Temperature Projected Impacts of Climate Change Climate change may help increase agricultural productivity in some countries. 1. 2. True False Projected Impacts on Crops (wheat, maize, rice) 2020s 2050s 2080s Which regions will most likely be negatively impacted by climate change? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Agriculture-dependant regions near the equator Poorest regions Coastal regions Low-lying islands All of the above Six Climate Threats: Countries Most at Risk Low Income High Income Middle Income Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All low-lying Island States All low-lying Island States Sudan Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan Africa Africa mean temperatures and annual precipitation have changed over last 100 years Less rainfall in the Sahel Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987 More rainfall in East Africa Frequency of Extreme Events - One third of African people live in drought prone areas - 220 million are annually exposed to drought - Mozambique 2000 floods - US$ 550 million (1.5% reduction GDP growth) - Kenya 1997/98 floods - $1.8 billion Infrastructure and property damage Climate Change Projections Temperature: • Expected to increase 2°- 6°C (by the end of this century) with greatest impact over the semi-arid margins of the Sahara and central southern Africa and least in equatorial latitudes and coastal environments. Precipitation: • Projected future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. Historical Rainfall record ? The Sahel ? More Rain East Africa ? Southeast Africa Hulme et al. (2001) ? Less Rain Future is more uncertain about precipitation than temperature Natural 30-year Variability Each point represents global future scenario A1, A2, B1, B2 Hulme et al. (2001) Changes in Agriculture Reduction in soil fertility Decreased livestock productivity Increased incidence of pest attacks Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons Increasing Desertification Two thirds of continent is desert or dry-lands Public Health Impacts Vector-borne diseases that are considered to be sensitive to climate change Diseases Malaria, filariasis, dengue fever, West Nile fever Leishmaniasis Chagas disease Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis African trypanosomiasis Onchocerciasis Vector Mosquitoes Sandflies Triatomines Ixodes Ticks Tsetse flies Black flies Pressures on Biodiversity Possible species migration Reduction in plant species habitats Impacts on wetland ecosystems Sea Level Rise Sea levels around Africa expected to rise by 15 – 95 cm by the year 2100 Implications for coastal fisheries, saltwater intrusion, migration, coastal flooding Adaptation to Climate Risks First step: reduce vulnerability by focusing on improved adaptation to existing variability (and extremes) • Crop diversification (e.g. livestock, forestry products) • Modern cultivation methods (e.g. fertilizer techniques, improved seeds, drought resistant crops) • Improved water resources management (national and international) • Improved forecasting and preparedness • Community-based natural resource management • Water harvesting and storage infrastructure • Integrated coastal zone management Adaptation to Climate Risks Climate vulnerability is exacerbated by (and results in?): • • • • • • Low per capita GDP Low life expectancy and high infant mortality rates Low adaptive capacity Low literacy High dependence on natural resource base Weak governance Successful economic development and poverty alleviation are important means to reducing vulnerability to climate risks What more can the Bank do? Support • Build knowledge base: Current poor state of reliable data (spatial and temporal) for climate monitoring • Stronger institutions and management: Current low level of climate expertise in region; build links between research and policy; stronger national and regional institutions for water management and managing risks • Better analysis of regional impacts: Regional climate models for Africa still in development; With macroeconomic importance of agriculture in Africa, adaptation to climate risks will be critical. Given growing energy demands, evaluating impacts of long-term change on infrastructure investments Resilience to changing dynamics with floods and droughts - One response to longterm climate change is to strengthen seasonal rainfall forecasts Most client countries perceive climate change as a(n): _____________ issue. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Environmental Economic Political Social All of the above The Client’s Perspective on Climate Change Trade offs with other development needs Equity if not major GHG emitter Developing vis-à-vis developed perspective Technology access and adoption Capacity and knowledge Grants versus loans What is the Bank’s role in the climate change issue? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Advocate Neutral Partner Bystander Financing and Knowledge None of the above All of the above THANK YOU Winston H Yu ([email protected])