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The SANTA FE project Jean-François Lamarque March 31 2004 BGC Working group Brief history • 1st Chemistry-Climate Interactions workshop in February 2003, Santa Fe • Variety of speakers to discuss potential feedbacks between chemistry (gas-phase, aerosols, clouds) and climate • Define a project to look at nitrogen deposition (Sequential analysis of nitrogen March 31 2004 BGC Working group Scientific Analysis (of) Nitrogen (Cycle) Towards Atmospheric Forcing Estimation March 31 2004 BGC Working group Goal of the project • Look at the evolution of nitrogen deposition on the terrestrial biosphere during the 21st century • Look at the impact on the carbon uptake • Force the climate model with the updated CO2 forcing March 31 2004 BGC Working group Approach (1) • Run climate models (GISS, NCAR, UKMO) with A2 scenario to construct a separate SSTs and climates • Use a variety of online and offline chemistry models (GISS, Harvard, IPSL, LLNL, MPI-Hamburg, MPI-Mainz, NCAR, UKMO) to calculate nitrogen deposition (emissions are specific to each group) March 31 2004 BGC Working group Approach (2) • Look at the impact of climate change only and of emissions change only • Force CLM at T31 using each nitrogen deposition field • Look at the spread of results as a lower bound on the uncertainty on the results March 31 2004 BGC Working group Status (simulations available) Model SST 2000 GISS GISS X X* GISS GISS X X* GISS UKMO X X* NCAR GISS NCAR NCAR NCAR UKMO UKMO UKMO March 31 2004 2050 2100 X X X X,X* X X,X* BGC Working group X Status (simulations in progress) Model SST 2000 LLNL GISS X X* LLNL NCAR X X* LLNL UKMO X X* MPI-M GISS X X* MPI-M NCAR X X* MPI-M UKMO X X* UKMO UKMO X X* March 31 2004 2050 BGC Working group 2100 Time table • Compile all nitrogen deposition estimates and write paper by summer 2004 • Perform the CLM simulations and write paper by fall 2004 • The goal is to be available for the next IPCC assessment March 31 2004 BGC Working group Normalized Ndep Dry deposition March 31 2004 Wet deposition Red Blue BGC Working group Global ndep Global emissions 2100 2000 Ratio (2100/2000) March 31 2004 BGC Working group GISS 3.6 NCAR 2.6 UKMO 1.8 March 31 2004 BGC Working group Global NOx emissions (lightning) March 31 2004 BGC Working group Comparison with observations (EMEP) March 31 2004 BGC Working group Plots by J. Sulzman Comparison with observations (NADP) March 31 2004 BGC Working group Plots by J. Sulzman Comparison with observations • Poor skill over European stations (on average models tend to be lower) • Good skill over US stations, with a tendency to overestimate nitrogen deposition (10%) at large values March 31 2004 BGC Working group Analysis of Ndep totals NCAR UKMO GISS March 31 2004 BGC Working group Analysis of Ndep March 31 2004 BGC Working group Triangle Circle wet dry Red Blue 2100 2000 Normalized Ndep Global total ndep Global emissions March 31 2004 BGC Working group Conclusions • Global increase in Ndep tends to closely follow the increase in emissions, especially in the NCAR model. Unclear if the increase in other models from climate change is statistically significant • What is happening to GISS_2100? • The hydrological cycle (as identified by lightning and wet deposition) in the GISS model seems to have a stronger response to climate change than other models, except with the NCAR SSTs March 31 2004 BGC Working group