Download The Future of Climate Change

The Future of Climate Change
Modeling to Predict Future
Climates
Computer Models
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 Involve
mathematical
equations to
describe interactions
in the physics,
biology and
chemistry of the
Earth’s climate
system
Computer Models2
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 These equations are
so complicated that
computers must be
used to solve them
 Computers create
descriptions of
possible future
climate patterns
from the results
Computer Models3
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 Once a model is
developed it must be
tested
 Scientists run the model
using past data
 If it accurately
reproduces past data it
will likely give good
predictions of the future
Computer Models4
 Computer models used
presently indicate that
the climate will continue
to change
 Models are reliable, but
may not account for all
of the complexities of
Earth’s climate system
Aerosol Pollution
 Scientists think that
increases in aerosol pollution
have masked the severity of
global warming
 Aerosols are tiny particles
generated by natural and
anthropogenic sources
 It is difficult to predict the
amount of global aerosol
pollution because it partly
depends on unpredictable
events (ex. volcanic
eruptions, forest fires)
Canada’s Future Climate
Modeled
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america/canada/_derived/index.htm_txt_canada-map.gif

Computer climate
models predict
some initial positive
effects for Canada
1.
Crops will grow farther
north
Growing season extended
More ‘warm weather crops’
will grow (ex. more fruit will
grow in the Great Lakes
area)
2.
3.
Canada’s Future Climate
Modeled2
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 Computer models also
predict that higher
temperatures will go
hand in hand with more
precipitation, and more
frequent and severe
weather events (ex.
flash floods, harsh
winters & windstorms)
Confidence Ratings of Climate
Change Models
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 IPCC scientists have found ways to estimate
their confidence in their computer models,
evaluations and predictions
Confidence Level Graph
Confidence Ratings of Climate
Change Models2
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cartoon.jpg

The IPCC scientists
give higher confidence
levels to their
predictions and
conclusions if they
have:
1.
More data
More accurate
measurements
Greater understanding of
the factors involved in a
particular climatic event
2.
3.
The Future of Climate Change
Political Action on Climate Change
IPCC
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 Climate research
depends on
international cooperation
 Scientists in different
countries share climate
data and their tools for
collecting it
 The IPCC publishes its
findings in reports
available to everyone
Time to Act
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 Our understanding
of global energy
systems has
improved greatly
 Now governments
must be encouraged
to act to reduce the
anthropogenic
greenhouse effect
The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
 An agreement of
192 of the worlds
nations to act on
stabilizing
anthropogenic
greenhouse gas
emmisions
 Established in 1992
UNFCCC2
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UNFCCC3
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 Organizes meeting
to discuss scientific
and political action
 Mandate
sustainable
development of the
world’s resources
Kyoto Protocol on Climate
Change
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Kyoto Protocol on Climate
Change
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 In Kyoto, Japan, in
1997, Canada and 160
other countries agreed
to set a goal of an
average 5% reduction
in Global greenhouse
gas emissions by 2012
 The agreement went
into effect in Feb. 2005
 As of 2008, 183
countries had ratified
the protocol
Kyoto Protocol on Climate
Change
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 According to the
Kyoto Protocol,
Canada must
reduce its emissions
of GHG to 6% below
1990 levels
 In reality Canada’s
emissions increased
22% between 1990 2006
Canada’s Kyoto Target
Kyoto Emission – Reduction
Credits
 Credits can be
earned by a country
for actions that
reduce global GHG
emissions
 This does not mean
the country has
reduced its own
levels
Kyoto Emission – Reduction
Credits2

Credits can be awarded for:
1.
A developed country helps a developing
country reduce its emissions
A developed country helps another
developed country to reduce its emissions
A country engages in practices that help
remove CO2 from the atmosphere
2.
3.
Go Green – Ontario’s Action
Plan on Climate Change
 Reduce Ontario’s GHG
emissions
 Improve public transport in
the GTA
 Encourage jobs in green
technology
 Decrease coal-fired power
plants; increase power
generated by renewable
resources
 Protect green spaces and
agricultural land