Download Findings of the IPCC Third Ass - global change SysTem for Analysis

UNEP
WMO
State of Global Climate
Dr R K Pachauri
Chairman IPCC & Director General
TERI
Indicators of a warming earth - up
to now
• Increase in global mean surface temperature
by over 0.6oC (highly likely)
• Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 10 to 15%
and thickness decreased by 40% (likely)
• Snow cover decreased in area by 10% since
observation started in 1960 (very likely)
• Coral reef bleaching
• 1990s the warmest decade of the millenium
(likely)
Source:TAR Synthesis Report
Trends in earth surface
temperature
Source: IPCC, TAR
Spatial distribution of climate change
Over the century most warming is observed
over mid- and high latitude Asia and parts of
Source: IPCC TAR
western Canada
Evidence of human intervention
Source: IPCC, TAR
Increasing trend of
GHG concentration - CO2
• Atmospheric concentration of CO2
increased by 31% upto 1999 since
the industrial revolution
• Today’s concentration has not been
exceeded during the past 420,000
years and likely not in the past 20
million years
• The average rate of increase since
1980 has been 0.4% annually
Source: IPCC TAR
The TAR conclusions
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the
warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities
And
Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning are
virtually certain to be the dominant influence on the
trends in the atmospheric CO2 concentration during
the 21st century
Future emissions scenarios SRES
Four different story lines characterized by different
socio economic assumptions result in different levels
of future GHGs and aerosol
They do not assume additional climate initiatives but
future emissions are driven by non climate policies
designed for other purposes
The SRES includes four marker scenarios A1, A2,
B1,B2
IPCC TAR, WGI
Emissions
Concentration
Characteristics of a changing climate
• Shift in mean climate parameters
Source: IPCC
TAR
• Change in temperature variance
Source: IPCC
TAR
Source: IPCC
TAR
Impacts of warming
• far reaching effects on different
sectors
• not uniform throughout the globe
• impacts may be both beneficial and
adverse
Source: GRID Arendal
Impacts
Impact on food production systems
Illustration Scientific American
Assessment of impacts on
fisheries
Source:NOAA PFEL
Impacts on hydropower potential
• Reduced stream flow in rivers
• reduces water running through the turbine and also
• lowers reservoir levels that reduce the water pressure
which in turn reduces the power produced by a given
amount of water
•Changes in flow regime of rivers - affects
generation
Redemption at hand ?
‘Significant technical progress relevant to GHG
gas emissions reduction has been made since
1995 and has been faster than anticipated’
Source: IPCC TAR, WGIII
Mitigating Climate change
Climate change is a problem with unique characteristics
•
•
•
•
It is global
It is long term
Large uncertainties associated with it
Involves complex interactions between climatic,
environmental, economic, political, institutional, social
and technological processes
• Climate change mitigation policies implemented at the
national level will, both be affected by, and have impacts
on broader socio economic policies and trends, such as
those related to development, sustainability and equity
The global sustainability
perspective
Source:
IPCC TAR
Aligning objectives
• Effective mitigation policies would also further other
sustainable development goals (economic, equity,
environmental)
– Maximising co benefits of the mitigation strategy
– Implementing no regrets options
• The key linkages between mitigation and development
are many - macroeconomic impacts, employment
creation, inflation, trade
Consideration of no regrets options
• Design policies that reduce GHG emissions at no or
negative costs - ‘no regrets’ options
• No regret option could involve
– Reduction of market imperfections
– Double dividend - recycling of revenues of carbon taxes
to offset distortionary taxes
– Maximising incidental benefits - ancillary benefits
The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
Autonomous body established by WMO and
UNEP in 1988
The Mandate
• IPCC assesses scientific, technical and socio-economic
information relevant for the understanding of the risk of
human-induced climate change.
• It does not carry out research nor does it monitor
climate related data or other relevant parameters.
• IPCC reports are neutral with respect to policy,
although they may need to deal objectively with
scientific, technical and socio-economic factors
relevant to the application of particular policies.
The Principles
• The experts represented in the IPCC are geographically
balanced and cover all the IPCC regions
• IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and
published scientific/technical literature.
• The IPCC process ensures objectivity, transparency,
openness by allowing rigorous review of all its reports
• The review process involves experts who have
expertise in specific areas, experts chosen by
governments and experts chosen by appropriate
organizations
The Process
Compilation of list of CLA, LA,
Expert Reviewers, Review editors and
Government FP
Selection of LA
Preparation of Draft Report
First review
Government, participating
organisations WG Bureaux
WG Bureau
CLA and LA
Experts
Second Review
Government, CLA,
LA, CA, ER
Preparation of
Final draft Report
CLA, LA in
consultation with ER
The IPCC outputs
• The Assessment Reports consist of 3 Volumes
– Working Group I - assesses the scientific aspects of the
climate system and climate change.
– Working Group II - addresses the vulnerability of socioeconomic and natural systems to climate change,
negative and positive consequences of climate change,
and options for adapting to it.
– Working Group III - assesses options for limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating
climate change.
– Each of WG reports are accompanied by a Summary for
Policy Makers and a Technical Summary
• The Task Force on Inventory (TFI) - has
developed the GHG National Inventories
(Methodology and Worksheets) and the
Good Practice Guidance
• Special Reports on specific issues
• Technical papers
• Synthesis Report - Scientific responses to
specific policy relevant questions
The Current Bureau of the IPCC
Issues, priorities and the way
forward
The Fourth Assessment Repo
• Improved coordination between the WGs to produce
an integrated assessment of the status of scientific
knowledge -addressing cross cutting issues by adopting
themes for AR4
• Effort would be made to make it more ‘policy relevant’
by providing the public with
– better regional scale assessment
– quantification of uncertainties and
– incorporating risk and uncertainty in a manner that is
easily understood
• This round of assessment would also focus on
integrated approaches to adaptation and mitigation
in minimising climate related damages
• Focus on developing countries
– Inspire further research
– involve experts as lead authors
• Provide adequate coverage on socio-economic
analysis of actions (adaptation and /or mitigation)
Vs inaction and co benefits at a regional level
• Preserving and enhancing the scientific integrity
and credibility of IPCC outputs
Nature has implanted in the human breast ability
to cope with any difficulty or suffering that may
come to man unprovoked