Download Topic 8.6 Global Warming

Topic 8: Energy, power
and climate change
8.6 Global Warming
The majority of experts tend to agree that
the enhanced greenhouse effect is behind
global warming.
Others have looked for different causes.
A range of reasons have been
suggested to explain global warming.
These include:
1)
2)
3)
4)
Changes in the composition of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Increased solar flare activity.
Cyclical changes in the Earth’s orbit.
Volcanic activity.
1)
Changes in the composition of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
the burning of fossil fuels has increased the
concentration of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides
and aerosols in the atmosphere
the melting of permafrost regions in the world
and deforestation have increased the
concentrations of methane
These greenhouse gases capture the infra-red
radiation and re-radiates to the Earth causing
climate changes
2) Solar flare
The Sun, being a variable star, has a major
influence on the long-term and short-term
changes in climate of the solar system
More sunspots deliver more energy to the
atmosphere, so that global temperatures should
rise.
These changes are complex phenomena and
not very well understood.
It is debatable if the pattern of global warming is
consistent with the changes in solar activity.
3) Cyclical changes in earth’s orbit
The Earth’s
precession (the Earth wobbles like a
spinning top or gyroscope),
obliquity (the Earth is tilted on its axis by
23.5°) and
eccentricity (the Earth’s orbit around the
Sun is not circular but rather elliptical)
affect its orbit every 100 000 and 400 000
years which in term leads to climate
change.
So, while they are relevant at these time
scales, they are perhaps not so relevant
for the climate changes of, say, the last
200 years.
4) Volcanic activity
For many years, climatologists have noticed a
connection between large explosive volcanic eruptions
and short-term climatic change
The explosion of Mt. Krakatau (Krakatoa) in Indonesia in
1883 caused two-thirds of a 45 km2 island to be blown
away and caused a tsunami that reached a height of 40
meters.
The Sun was blue and green as fine ash and aerosols
circled the equator in 13 days.
This dust lowered global temperatures by as much as
1.2 °C in the year after the eruption and temperatures
did not return to normal until 1888. Today, there are
more than 60 active volcanoes.
The natural greenhouse effect works in
order to keep the Earth’s temperature at
288 K.
This makes life, as we know it, possible on
Earth.
The enhanced greenhouse effect refers to
the increase in the world's average
temperature due to the increased
concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere due to human activities.
Increased Combustion of Fossil Fuels
“Students should be aware that, although
debatable, the generally accepted view of
most scientists is that human activities,
mainly related to burning of fossil fuels,
has released extra carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere.”
THE LIKELY MAJOR CAUSE OF GLOBAL
WARMING!!
Evidence?
International ice core research produces
evidence of atmospheric composition and
mean global temperatures over thousands
of years (ice cores up to 420,000 years
have been drilled in the Russian Antarctic
base, Vostok
The concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the
atmosphere.
(Source: US Environmental Protection Agency)
The Antarctic ice cores, in
particular, extracted from a depth of
about 3600 m over (frozen) lake
Vostok in East Antarctica in 1998,
have been thoroughly analyzed to
reveal a connection between
temperature changes and changes
in carbon dioxide and methane
concentrations.
The ice cores give a detailed
account of global climatic conditions
over a time period spanning some
420 000 years.
Mechanisms that may increase the rate
of global warming
global warming reduces ice/snow cover,
which in turn changes the albedo, to
increase rate of heat absorption
temperature increase reduces the
solubility of CO2 in the sea and increases
atmospheric concentrations
deforestation reduces carbon fixation.
Δin ice and snow cover
If ice and snow cover decreases…
Ice and snow have a high albedo, which means
the ratio between the incoming radiation, and
the amount reflected is high.
However, the land, which would be exposed, or
the water that would be formed has a low albedo
and as a result, more radiation would be
captured resulting in an increase in the rate of
heat absorption of the Earth.
http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/thumb_52/1144338416BXt9iz.jpg
Temperature Δ
Temperature plays a major role in the rate of
reaction and the solubility of gases in water.
With an increase in temperature, the solubility of
CO2 in the waters of the Earth would be reduced
and gaseous carbon dioxide concentrations in
the atmosphere would increase.
Radiation absorbed by this greenhouse gas
would then be re-radiated to the Earth’s land
surface causing global warming.
Deforestation
Deforestation reduces carbon fixation in
the carbon cycle.
Through photosynthesis, plants take
carbon dioxide from the air to make sugars
and cellulose thus “locking up” or fixing
the carbon dioxide.
With increased deforestation, there is less
plants to carry out this process and CO2
concentrations would increase.
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/51/133428648_24028e0537.jpg
Coefficient of volume expansion
The coefficient of volume expansion is the
fractional change in volume per degree
change in temperature
One possible effect of the enhanced
greenhouse effect is a rise in mean sealevel.
©IBO2007
http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/dal/lowres/daln194l.jpg
Possible reasons for a
predicted rise in mean sea-level.
The level of water in the sea is always
varying. Many reasons contribute to this,
for example varying atmospheric pressure,
plate tectronic movements, wind, tides,
flow of large rivers into the sea, changes in
water salinity and others.
The melting of ice
To melt a mass m of ice at 0oC requires
an amount of thermal energy Q = ml,
where l is the specific latent heat of
fusion of ice.
Thus, to melt ice, energy must be provided,
and therefore cooling results at the place
from where this energy is removed.
For the purposes of discussing changes in
sea level, we must distinguish between
land ice (ice supported on land) and sea
ice (ice floating in sea water).
Sea ice, when melted, will not result in a change
of sea level. This is a consequence of a principle
of fluid mechanics known as Archimedes’
principle.
The weight of the ice is equal to the weight of
the displaced water and so when the ice melts it
will occupy a volume equal to the volume of the
displaced water (i.e. no change in sea level will
come about). By contrast, land ice, when melted,
will result in an increased sea level.
Overall, warming will, in general, result in a rise
in sea level, not only because more land ice will
melt but also because warmer water occupies a
larger volume.
The expansion of water is anomalous, however.
Water will actually contract in volume as it is
heated from 0 oC to 4 oC, and then will expand
as the temperature is increased further from 4
oC.
This means that the density of water is highest
at 4 oC, a fact that is of considerable importance
for life in lakes, rivers and oceans.
Given a volume Vo at a temperature o,
the volume after a temperature increase of
 will increase by V given by
V = Vo
Where  is a coefficient known as the
coefficient of volume expansion.
For water, the coefficient  actually
depends on temperature, and so a given
volume of water will change by different
amounts even for the same temperature
changes  depending on the initial
temperature of the water.
Question 1
The area of the oceans of the Earth is
about 3.6 x 108 km2 and the average depth
of water is about 3.7 km. Using a
coefficient of volume expansion of water of
2 x 10-4 K-1, estimate the expected rise in
sea level after a temperature increase of 2
K.
Comment on your answer.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/images/ocean1.jpg
The total volume of water in the oceans is
approximately Vo = A x d, where A is the area
and d is the average depth. So
Vo = 3.6 x 108 x 3.7
= 1.33 x 109 km3 = 1.33 x 1018 m3
The increase in volume is then:
V = Vo
= 2 x 10-4 x 1.33 x 1018 x 2 = 5.3 x 1014 m³
Sea level will increase by an amount h such that
(converting A to m2)
h = V/A = (5.3 x 1014)/(3.6 x 1014) = 1.5 m
Note…
This estimate assumes a constant coefficient of
expansion,
uniform heating of all the water and
does not take into account the initial water temperature.
It also does not take into account the fact that, with a
higher water temperature, more evaporation would take
place, hence cooling the water.
This estimate calculates the rise in sea level of the
existing area of water.
A rising sea would cover dry land and so the area of
water would increase. This would decrease the height
found in the estimate.
Identify climate change as an outcome of
the enhanced greenhouse effect.
http://www.maf.govt.nz/mafnet/rural-nz/sustainable-resource-use/climate/impact-on-industries/
Measures to Reduce Global
Warming
There is clearly an urgent need to stop the
increase in all the greenhouse gases, and
carbon dioxide in particular.
What are some of the measures you can
think of?
Measures to Reduce Global
Warming
Using fuel-efficient cars and developing hybrid cars
further;
Increasing the efficiency of coal-burning power plants;
Replacing coal-burning power plants with natural gasfired plants;
Considering methods of capturing and storing the carbon
dioxide produced in power plants (carbon capture and
storage, CCS);
Increasing the amounts of power produced by wind and
solar generators;
Considering nuclear power;
Being energy conscious, with buildings, appliances,
transportation, industrial processes and entertainment;
Stopping deforestation.
International efforts to reduce
the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
Kyoto Protocol
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate (APPCDC).
http://www.actnow.com.au/Opinion/Rudds_rapid_ratification_of_the_Kyoto_Protocol.aspx
The Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC
An extremely important agreement towards cutting
greenhouse gas emissions was reached in 1997, in
Kyoto, Japan.
The industrial nations agreed to reduce their emissions
of greenhouse gases by 5.2% from the 1990 levels over
the period from 2008 to 2012.
The protocol allowed mechanisms for developed nations
to use projects aimed at reducing emissions in
developing nations as part of their own reduction targets.
Endorsed by 160 countries, the protocol would become
legally binding if at least 55 countries signed it. The nonratification of the protocol by the USA and Australia has
weakened the impact of the agreement.
APPCDC
Unlike the Kyoto protocol, which imposed mandatory
limits for greenhouse has emissions, the Asia-Pacific
Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
(APPCDC, or AP6) asked for voluntary reductions of
these emissions.
It was signed by the USA, Australia, India, the People’s
Republic of China, Japan and South Korea in 2005.
It is an agreement in which the signatory nations agree
to cooperate in reducing emissions. It has been criticized
as worthless because the reductions are voluntary.
It has been defended because it includes China and
India, major greenhouse gas producers, who are not
bound by the Kyoto protocol.
IPCC
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
has undertaken a major, comprehensive, detailed and
scientifically impartial analysis of global climate.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) created
the IPCC in 1988.
While conducting no research of its own, the IPCC
reports on technical, scientific and socio-economic
aspects of climate change using assessments of existing
published scientific material.
Its four reports in 1990, 1997, 2001 and 2007 have been
instrumental in providing an accurate analysis of the
global situation.