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Transportation and Emissions in Chile March, 2003 Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D) Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) Introduction Climate Science Trends Latest IPCC Findings Transportation & Climate Change Chile’s Contribution to CO2 Emissions Conclusions & Next Steps Latest IPCC Findings Global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by ~ 1°F. 1990s warmest decade on record, 1998 warmest yr. Global avg. sea level rose 4-8” in 20th century. Present CO2 concentration highest in 20 million years. Rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years. “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” Latest IPCC Findings Average surface temperature is predicted to increase by 2.5 °F - 10.4 °F The projected warming rate is the highest in at least 10,000 years The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that sea level rise would be 20 cm by 2030 and 1-m by 2100 Transportation & Climate Change Key factors Travel activity (VMT, ton-miles) Mode split Vehicle energy intensity (mpg, loading) Fuel carbon content (lifecycle) In Chile, the transportation sector represents largest source of man-made GHG emissions - approximately 28% Background Pew Center for Global Climate Change: Transport GHG emissions in Chile could increase by 117% in the ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) scenario (2000-2020) versus 42% in the low emissions scenario (LES) - BAU = no strong actions to curb GHG emissions - LES = policies to improve public transportation and introduce cleaner, more efficient vehicles Passenger Travel by Mode In Greater Santiago, between 1977 and 1991, car trips increased by ~6% while bus trips declined by ~18% 1 in 10 people in Santiago, now own cars Passenger transportation accounts for about 2/3 of transportation sector GHG emissions Chile’s CO2 Emissions by Mode (2000) Airplanes 9% Buses 10% Ships 13% Cars & Light Trucks 36% Trucks 22% Taxis 10% Emissions from Passenger Cars GHGs from Passenger Cars in Chile: 2000 - 2020 (Data from Pew Center Report) 150% Grow th Relative to 2000 140% Vehicle Kilometers Total GHGs 130% GHG Emissions Rate 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Conclusions This project, with its emphasis on mitigating CO2 from the transportation sector, can: Quantify the potential CO2 benefit of travel demand, vehicle efficiency and other transportation policies Set a precedent for the role transportation projects must play in addressing the challenge of climate change