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Key findings – Climate Change Presented by Edward S Ayensu on 4th – 5th September, 2009 @ the UNESCO International Conference on Broadcast Media & Climate Change: A Public Service Remit Paris, France Key messages • The impacts of climate change are already being felt, and limiting warming by 2 degrees is a minimum • Limiting warming by 2 degrees will require 17Gt of abatement by 2020 • This will require action from developed and developing countries • Substantial funding to the developing world (€65-100bn pa) is required over the next ten years • “Low carbon growth plans” are required to enable both the private and public funding flows to developing countries 1 1 About Project Catalyst • Initiative of the ClimateWorks Foundation, a global, non-profit philanthropic foundation headquartered in San Francisco, California with a network of affiliated foundations in China, India, the U.S., and the European Union • Launched in May 2008 to provide analytical and policy support for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations on a post-Kyoto international climate agreement • Provide a forum where key participants in the global discussions can informally interact, conduct analyses, jointly problem solve, and contribute ideas and proposals to the formal UNFCCC process • Organized in working groups: mitigation, adaptation, technology, forestry, climate-compatible growth plans, and finance with a total of about 150 climate negotiators, senior government officials, representatives of multilateral institutions, business executives, and leading experts from over 30 countries. Analytical support from the international consulting firm, McKinsey & Company 2 Climate change is likely to disproportionately affect the countries least responsible Per capita GHG emission comparison1 MtCO2e per capital World Dev’d world Africa 7.5 2005 16.0 3.3 8.4 2030 Droughts Costal flooding Climate zone shifts Water Scarcity Current development issues may be worsened by climate change North Africa • Increased desertification East Africa • Expansion of vectorborne disease transmission zone West and Central Africa • Fast-urbanising cities at risk from coastal flooding 17.8 2.9 1 Including emissions from land-use and forestry SOURCE: UNFCCC; UN ESA; IEA; Southern Africa • Heightened water stress 3 The response to climate change must be rooted in development, but aligned with mitigation and adaptation objectives Development ‘Climateresilient development’ ‘Climatecompatible development’ Mitigation ‘Climateproofed abatement’ Adaptation 4 Scientific evidence suggests that a 450ppm CO2e pathway with overshoot gives a 40–60% probability to limit global warming to 2 degrees Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability GtCO2e per year Probability of temperature increase under 2˚C 70 60 Expected temperature increase 50 40 • 450ppm is 30 15-30% 3.0˚C 40-60% 2.0˚C 20 10 • 70-85% 0 2005 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2050 Source: IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, Catalyst analysis 1.8˚C not safe – it has a 40– 60% probability of warming exceeding 2 oC Even 2oC will require signifi-cant investment in adaptation 5 17 Gt of reductions below “Business as Usual” in 2020 are required for a 450ppm, 2°pathway Global GHG emissions, Gt CO2e per year 75 70 70 65 61 60 55 52 -35 -17 50 45 Current proposals* 8-11 Gt abatement in 2020 44 40 35 450ppm pathway (with overshoot) 0 1990 Reference pathway ‘Business as Usual’ 2000 Change relative to 1990 Percent 2010 2020 2030 17 -7 * US – 17-28% below 2005 level by 2020; EU – 20-30% from 1990 level by 2020 (2.3 Gt); China - Reduce energy consumption per national income by 20% between 2005–10 (0.8Gt), and again between 2010-2015; Russia - stabilise emissions at ~30% below 1990 (0.7 Gt); Brazil - Reduce deforestation rates by 70% by 2017, equivalent to 4.8b tons less CO2 emitted cumulatively (0.7 Gt); Japan - Reduce 80% by 2050 from current levels (0.7 Gt); Canada - 20% reduction from 2006 level by 2020 (0.3 Gt); Mexico - Reduce emissions from 2002 levels by 50% by 2050 (0.3Gt), plus proposals from 12 smaller Annex 1 countries and South Korea. Assumptions have been made on timeline and pathway to calculate abatement in 2020 6 Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis 6 Sufficient opportunities exist to achieve the 17 Gt required to reach a 450ppm pathway McKinsey global GHG abatement cost curve, 2020* (up to costs of €60/t, excluding transaction costs, 4% discount rate) 70 60 Solar PV Reduced intensive agriculture conversion Solar conc. Organic soil restoration Wind (high penetration) Pastureland afforestation Biomass Grassland management Wind (low penetration) Reduced deforestation 50 40 30 20 10 from pastureland conversion Reduced deforestation from slash-and-burn agriculture conversion Nuclear 0 -10 -20 -30 10 Rice management Shift coal new build to gas Electricity from landfill gas New waste recycling 15 19 Gt 20 Abatement potential Gt CO2e -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100 Cars ICE improvement Cars aerodynamics improvement Retrofit building envelope (commercial) Lighting – switch incandescents to LED (residential) Breakdown by geographic location: • 5 Gt in developed country geographies • 14 Gt in developing country geographies Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0 Breakdown by abatement type: • 9 Gt for terrestrial carbon • 6 Gt for energy efficiency • 4 Gt for low carbon energy supply 7 Resulting responsibilities for developed countries Caps Support on mitigation/ adaptation Leadership on technology 8 Upper bound The costs of adaptation are uncertain but are likely to be in the tens of billions per year Lower bound Adaptation cost estimates, € bn pa, (2008 prices) UNDP (2007) 70 Oxfam (2007) 41 UNFCCC Global estimate (2007) World Bank (2006) 19 0 41 36 8 27 89 99 135 34 Source: Agrawala & Fankhauser (2008); Project Catalyst 9 Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation activities Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t) Cost of abatement € / ton 60 40 20 0 -20 * 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Abatement potential Gt CO2e -40 Best practice info, capacity building, loans Offset market or grants Grants and international cooperation 10 Including elements of adaptation, the total financing need would be €65-100 bn per year 2010-2020 Annual financing flows requirement for developing countries €b on average p.a. 2010–20 ~65–100 ~10–20 55–80 5 5–30 35 10 Incremental Higher costs financing costs Transaction Technology Total Adaptation Total costs deployment financing estimate financing for for abatement developing countries Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; ‘Bosetti; Carraro; Massetti; Tavoni’; UNFCCC; Project Catalyst analysis 11 Under a 25% target for developed countries, carbon markets could contribute significantly to developing country low carbon investment Incremental costs paid for by developed countries Required abatement in 2020, Gt Required abatement for developed country target of 25% Support for incremental costs needed, e.g., concessional loans, grants, payments 17 Potential abatement in developing countries 5 3 6 Carbon credit purchases to meet 25% target Required abatement for 450ppm pathway Abatement feasible within developed countries <60 €/t CO2e Abatement feasible in developing countries – may be financed by developed to meet target commitments (e.g., via CDM) Source:McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, team analysis Support needed for capacity building and loans for capital investment where required 3 Remaining abatement feasible in developing countries (NPV negative) – may be financed by developed countries Remaining abatement feasible in developing countries (NPV positive) – may be supported by developed countries 12 Climate Compatible Growth Plans (CCGPs) are a way to identify and support developing country mitigation and adaptation actions Focus: Development, mitigation + adaptation Time horizon: Long term and short/medium term Content: Priorities, policies/measures and international • support Differentiation: Both developing + developed CCGP (=climate compatible growth plans) Process: Support, best practices, review, MRV 13 The elements of an LCGP Topics covered by a LCGP • National circumstances and current development plans 1 Strategic plan to assist the country in shifting its development path to a low carbon and climate resilient economy and achieve sustainable development • Assessment of vulnerability to climate change and how future climate change will affect it • Most recent GHG inventory • Long-term vision for an economy with low GHG emissions and low vulnerability to climate change 2 • Plan for specific investments in making the economy and Based on the socio-economic and development priorities of the country the infrastructure less vulnerable and measures to adapt existing infrastructure to the changing climate • GHG mitigation plan containing: 3 Includes a strategic vision (long-term component) as well as that specific actions to be undertaken to get on a low carbon, climate resilient pathway (short and medium term component) – Projection of GHG emissions under BAU scenario for the most important economic sectors – Scenario the country can achieve without assistance – Scenario for which it would require international support. • NAMAs and NAPA’s the country wishes to undertake • Incremental cost of the individual NAMAs and NAPAs and all technology, financing and capacity building support needed to implement the plan. 14 Opportunities for leap-frogging exist which provide multiple advantages to support African development Solar technology provides advantages for Africa • Low levels of electrification in SubSaharan Africa • Off-grid solar technology is commercially available: –Cost-effective in remote areas –Faster deployment in remote areas –More reliable A Global Deal could . . . • Provide funding • Widen access to loans • Provide technology access • Support research • Overcome IP barriers • Develop institutions and processes –Environmental and security benefit 15