Download Climate Change, Convention, Protocol and CDM by Kalipada

Climate Change Centre,
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Climate Change, Convention,
Protocol and CDM
An Orientation Workshop on CDM
Opportunities in the Small Scale Sector
India Habitat Centre, New Delhi
Kalipada Chatterjee
Climate Change Centre
March 25-26, 2004
1
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Global Warming
Science of Climate Change
During the last two decades two important
events occurred which have far-reaching
consequences for life on our planet
These are :
 appearance of ozone hole
 compelling
scientific
global warming
evidence
of
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Greenhouse gases, effect
and Climate Change

Increased emissions of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) cause global warming
leading to climate change

Recent studies have given conclusive
evidence that both the appearance of
ozone hole and global warming are
caused mainly by human activities.
3
Atmospheric concentration of CO2, N2O, CH4
Carbon
Methane
Dioxide
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Atmospheric
concentration
Pre-industrial
(1750-1800)
Present day
(1990)
Current rate of
change per year
Atmospheric
lifetime (years)
CFC-11
CFC-12
Nitrous
Oxide
ppmv
ppmv
pptv
pptv
ppbv
280
0.8
0
0
288
353
1.72
280
484
310
9.5 (4%)
17 (4%)
0.8 (0.25%)
6.5
130
150
1.8 (0.5%) 0.015 (0.9%)
(50-200)
10
ppmv = parts per million by volume;
ppbv = parts per billion (thousand million) by volume;
pptv = parts per trillion (million million) by volume;
4
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What factors determine
global climate ?
There are many factors, both natural and of human
origins
What natural factors are important ?
 Solar radiation
 Energy absorbed from solar radiation is
balanced by outgoing radiation from the Earth
and the atmosphere, in the form of long wave
radiation (invisible infrared radiation)
5
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There are several natural factors which can change
the balance between the energy absorbed by the
Earth and the emitted by it in the form of long wave
infrared radiation : such factors cause radiative
forcing on climate.
These are

Output of energy from the sun (its variability
over the 11 year solar cycle and slow
variations in the Earth’s orbits)

Apart from solar radiations itself, the most
important radiative forcing arises from the
greenhouse effect.
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Greenhouse Effects
Short wave solar radiation can pass through
the clear atmosphere relatively unimpeded
but long wave radiation emitted by the warm
earth surface is partially absorbed and then
re-emitted by a number of trace gases also
known as green house gases (GHGs) in the
atmosphere
Main natural atmospheric GHGs are water
vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4)
and nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone.
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How do we know that natural greenhouse
effect is real ?
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



Natural greenhouse effect keeps the earth warmer by
330C (from minus 180C to plus 150C) than it would
otherwise be, thus making it warm enough to be
habitable
Secondly, measurements from ice cores going back
160,000 years show that the Earth’s temperature closely
paralleled the amount of CO2 and methane in the
atmosphere.
The greenhouse effect is real; it is a well understood
effect, based on established scientific principles.
Satellite observations of the radiation emitted from the
Earth’s surface and atmosphere demonstrate the
absorption due to the greenhouse gases. Effective
emitting temperature of the Earth as seen from space is
about 255 K and the globally averaged surface
temperature is about 285K.
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Why the GHGs are increasing
The GHGs in the atmosphere are increasing
mainly due to human activities which include :

Energy production from fossil fuels

Industries
Transport
Construction
Agriculture
Land use change and deforestation
Rapid population growth





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What is the role of the atmosphere ?

The mean annual concentration of CO2 is
relatively homogenous through out the
troposphere (the troposphere is mixed on a
time scale of about 1 year)

The
pre-industrial
atmospheric
CO2
concentration was about 280 ppmv as
reconstructed from ice core analyses, to-day
(1990) the level is about 353 ppmv (1ppmv CO2
equals to 2.12 GtC or 7.8 GtCO2)
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What is the role of Ocean ?
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
On time scales of decades or more, the CO2
concentrations of the unperturbed atmosphere is
mainly controlled by the exchange with the
oceans, which is the largest of the carbon
reservoirs
What is the role of earth’s vegetation and soils ?


The most important processes in the exchange
of carbon are photosynthesis, plant respiration,
and microbial conversion of the organic material
in the soil back into CO2
The
carbon
balance
can
be
changed
considerably by the direct impact of human
activities (land use, land use change, forestation)
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)

The first assessment report brought out in
1990

The Second Assessment Report brought out in
1995

A considerable progress has been made in
attempts to distinguish between natural and
anthropogenic influences on climate
The main conclusion of the SAR is that
the balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate
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Third Assessment Report, 2000
Some salient conclusions :

Climate change is not just an environmental
issue, but is part of the larger challenge of
sustainable development

An increasing body of observations gives a
collective picture of a warming world and
other changes in the climate system

the global average surface temperature
has increased over the 20th century by
about 0.60c
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Global mean surface temperatures have increased
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
Global average sea level has risen

between 0.1 and 0.2 m during the 20th century

Warm episodes of the El nino-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) have been more frequent,
persistent and intense since mid 1970s

In parts of Asia and Africa, the frequency and
intensity of droughts have been observed to
increase in recent decades

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases and aerosols
due to human activities continue to alter the
atmospheric composition that are expected to
affect the climate
15
CFCs
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11 and 12
17%
CARBON
DIOXIDE
7%
55%
6%
OTHER
CFCs
NITROUS
OXIDE
15%
METHANE
The contribution from each of the human-made greenhouse gases
to the change in radiative forcing from 1980 to 1990. The
contribution from ozone may also be significant, but cannot be
quantified at present
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
There are new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed is over the
last 50 years

Human influences will continue to
change
atmospheric
composition
throughout the 21st century
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Projections

Global average temperature and sea level
are projected to rise under all IPCC
emission scenarios

globally average surface temperature is
projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.80c

In the SAR temperature increases
projected was in the range of 1.0 to 3.50c
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Projected rate of warming is much
larger
Mean sea level is projected to rise by
0.09 to 0.88m by 2100, but with
significant regional variations
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Effect on human health…
Reduced winter mortality in mid- and
high-latitudes
Increased incidence of heat stress
mortality, and the number of people
exposed to vector-borne diseases, such
as malaria and dengue and water-borne
diseases such as cholera, especially in
the tropics and sub-tropics
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Developing countries are the most
vulnerable to climate change

Impacts are worse - already more flood and
drought prone and a large share of the
economy is in climate sensitive sectors

Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of
financial, institutional and technological
capacity and access to knowledge

Climate change is likely to impact
disproportionately upon the poorest countries
and the poorest persons within countries,
increasing inequities in health status and
access to adequate food, clean water and other
resources.
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Technologies and policies exist
to reduce
GHG emissions
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Impacts of Climate Change
23
Climate Change would have potential
impacts on :
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





water resources
agriculture
energy
forests
urban centres
human health

on economy and quality of life
rainfall and its distributions
cyclones

sea level rise etc.


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
Present difficulties in the
Change Impact Studies are :
Climate

uncertainties of Climate Change

difficulties in quantification of impacts,
particularly in economic terms

data gaps

incomplete knowledge of linkages
between climate change and other
systems
25
Climate Change Impacts of Particular
concern to Asia / India
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





Agriculture
Water resources
Coastal Zones
Forest resources
Human Health
Agriculture and Food Security/ Indian Scenario
 the single largest component of India’s economy
~ 30% of GDP
 provides employment to 68% of the total
workforce
 accounts for 21% of total exports
 65% of the net swon area of 142 mha is rainfed
 highly climate sensitive sector
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Climate change adversely affects

terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems such as forests,
deserts, lakes, stream and wetlands

water resources
 currently 1.3 billion people do not have access
to adequate supplies of safe water

food and fiber production

infrastructure and human settlements in coastal
areas, due to flooding and inundation,

increased mortality and illness due to heat waves &
vector borne diseases

climate change could increase the frequency and
magnitude of floods and droughts
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Climate Change and India’s Concern
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

The third assessment report of IPCC (IPCC 2000) projects that under
the combined influence of GHGs and sulphate aerosols climate may
warms globally by 1.4 to 5.80C by the next 100 years
Over the Indian region, the warming will be restricted to :
1.4 + 0.130C in 2020
2.5 + 0.40C in 2050
3.8 + 0.50C in 2080

Rainfall is projected to increase by 2% (2020) to 7% (2080)

Sea level is projected to rise between 0.09 to 0.88 m in the period
1990 to 2100

Extreme events such as excessive rain, flash floods, droughts,
cyclones and forest fire are likely to increase.

The combined effect of climate change and increase in extreme
events is expected to lead to significant impacts on water
resources, agriculture, on food security, human health, habitat and
fragile ecosystems like mangroves etc.
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Climate Change Convention
During the June’92 Earth Summit at Rio de Janerio
representatives of 154 countries signed the
UN Framework Convention on Climate change.
Objectives of the UNFCCC

To achieve stabilisation of GHG concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system

Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame to :
(a) to ensure food production is not threatened, and
(b) to enable economic development to proceed in
a sustainable manner
(Contd...)
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Climate Change Convention
(Contd...)
During the June’92 Earth Summit at Rio de Janerio
representatives of 154 countries signed the
UN Framework Convention on Climate change

The UNFCCC came into force on March 21, 1994. As
on CoP 9 (at Milan, Italy December, 2003) there are
at present 188 Parties to the Convention.
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Addressing Global Warming and
Climate Change
The possible options are :
 Mitigation of climate change
 Adaptation to climate change
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Vulnerability to climate change
Vulnerability to climate change can be addressed through the
ability of human systems to adapt and cope with climate change
but it depends on such factors as :








Wealth
Technology
Education
Information
Skills
Infrastructure
Access to resources
Management capabilities
In addition many communities and regions that are vulnerable
to climate change are also under pressure from forces such as :



Population growth
Resource depletion
Poverty
(Contd..)
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Vulnerability to climate change
(Contd..)
Signals of climate change are already becoming
visible


Many regions of the world particularly developing
countries are experiencing devastating floods
Unprecedented continental scale droughts
resulting in :






loss of human life
biodiversity
food production
slowing down economic growth
affecting development
Orissa super cyclone of October 1999, continental scale
drought during the summer of 2002 in India, severe heat
waves over some parts of Europe during the summer of
2003 are few examples
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The Climate Change Convention is not
merely for the stabilisation of the
concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere;


poverty eradication and
economic and social development
in the developing countries,
are also central, though implicit
in the Convention
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Basic Principle Agreed Upon in UNFCCC
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
Protecting the climate system


for the benefit of present and future
generations of human kind

on the basis of equity and

in accordance with their common but
differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities.
Developed country Parties agreed to take a
lead in combating climate change and
adverse effects thereof
Climate change remains the most important
global challenge of humanity
35
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Kyoto Protocol

The Protocol to the Convention on Climate Change was
adopted during CoP 3 in Kyoto, Japan in 1997.

The Protocol was opened for signature on 16 March 1998

Will enter into force after it has been ratified by at least 55
Parties to the Convention accounting for at least 55% of the
total 1990 CO2 eq emissions from the developed countries

To date 120 Parties have ratified the Protocol including 32
developed countries (Annex 1) representing 44.2% of the
emissions

Under Article 3 of the Protocol the Annex 1 countries agreed
to quantified emissions limitation and reduction commitments
(QELRCs) by at least 5.2 percent below their 1990 levels. The
six green house gases included are CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs,
HFCs and SF6.
(Contd...)
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Kyoto Protocol (Contd…)
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

For cost effectiveness of fulfilling this commitment,
three flexibility, mechanism were introduced :

JI (among developed countries)

CDM (between developed and developing countries)

Emission Treading (among developed countries)
These reductions are to be achieved during the first
commitment period 2008-2012
 Opportunities
to reduce emissions through CDM
project activities in developing countries are enormous
at a fairly low cost particularly in the energy, energy
efficiency, transport, building materials (brick, cement
and steel), municipal wastes, animal husbandry sectors
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Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
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
The purpose of CDM is to :

assist developing countries
sustainable development

contribute to the ultimate objective of the
Convention i.e. stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentration in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system, and

assist developed countries in achieving
compliance with their Quantified Emission
Limitation
and
Reduction
commitments
(QELRCs)
in
achieving
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BENEFITS THAT INDIA EXPECTS FROM CDM
PROJECT ACTIVITIES ARE :

Capacity building in project development and
implementation

Social development, economic development,
environment protection and technological
development and transfer, leading to the
realisation of sustainable development and to
address to India’s main agenda : poverty
eradication and better quality of life to people

Additional foreign investments

A share of CERs

A cleaner path for rapid economic development
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PARTICIPATION REQUIREMENTS OF A
DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTY
According to Marrakesh Accords, participation
requirements of a developing country Party
(e.g. India) in the CDM Process are :
 Voluntary
 A Party not included in Annex I may participate
in a CDM project activity if it is a Party to the
Kyoto Protocol, and
 Have set up a Designated National Authority
(DNA)
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Enabling Environment for CDM in India

India’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol

Designated National Authority (DNA) in place

GoI’s endorsement of a number of CDM
Projects so far
Enabling environment was further strengthened
by hosting the COP 8 at New Delhi, Prime
Minister of India’s address at COP8 and Delhi
Declaration
41
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ADDRESSING GHG MITIGATION IN INDIA
 Focus of the abatement strategy is CO2 emissions
reductions in the energy sector and forestry sectors
and CH4 emissions reduction in the agriculture sector
 Mitigation Options in the energy sector identified are :

improvements in energy efficiency through
upgrading currently employed technologies and
 introduction of advanced technologies that are
more efficient
 use of renewable energy sources wherever feasible
to bring down the carbon content of the grid, to
provide sustainable energy, and as a decentralised
energy source at remote areas
42
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Focus of the Present Orientation Workshop
and Expectations
Focus :
 Initiate a process and bring different stakeholders
from state and country level to a common platform
for raising awareness and build capacity on the
clean development mechanism, particularly in the
small scale sector such as brick, rice mill, hotel
and small scale renewable energy project activities
as defined under the Marrakech Accords (CoP7)
and recent CDM executive board modalities and
procedures on small scale CDM.
43
Focus of the Present Orientation Workshop
and Expectations
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Expectation :

This orientation workshop under IGES and CCC, DA
initiatives will lead to a three year CDM capacity building
programme amongst the different stakeholders in India.

Assist Project Developers to initiate CDM project activity in
their respective sectors.

Facilitate to develop, design and implement a number of
CDM projects under the small scale sector and strengthen
learning processes by doing

Assist in achieving sustainable development objectives

Assist in the mitigation and adaptation to climate change,
poverty eradication and rural development in the longer term
to address to poverty eradication and providing better
quality of life to all.
44
NGO INITIATIVES : CLIMATE CHANGE
CENTRE, DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES
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 Among the NGOs, Development Alternatives has set
up a Climate Change Centre
 Activities
of the Climate Change
categorised under three broad heads :
Centre
are
A. Research

Development of methodologies

Analysis and determination of baselines

Analysis and documentation of experience and
lessons learned worldwide for capacity
building

Quantified indicators of sustainability for CDM
(Contd...)
projects
45
NGO INITIATIVES : CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE,
DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES (Contd…)
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B. Facilitations

Project formulation

Approval process

Identification of partners and technologies

Providing linkages to reduce transaction costs

Assisting in negotiations
C. Outreach and Awareness

Organising regional workshops on CDM project development

Participation in CoPs,

Closely interacting with Govt. and Industry on issues on
climate change, CDM etc. particularly on policy analysis and
operational issues

Bringing out publications, research papers / articles
46
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Initiatives taken by the Various Stakeholders in India can
be further Reinforced by proactive role of financial
institutions:
 Finance being one of the main hurdles in the
promotion of Renewable Energy, a proactive role
with well defined programmes of the Financial
Institutions may considerably help in accelerating
promotion of RETs in the rural development
through CDM
 By internationally agreeing to a minimum price of
per tonne of CO2 reduced particularly through
small scale CDM activities
 Minimising transaction costs / upfront costs
47
CONCLUSION
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Clean Development Mechanism :
 catalyses sustainable development in longer term
 promote international co-operation in mitigation of climate
change in short as well as longer term
 increase resilience and coping capacity of communities through
increased sustainable livelihoods and other tools for adaptation
to climate change
 narrow the gap between the haves and have nots in longer term
 may lead to equitable distribution of resources in longer term
 will address to rural development and poverty eradication in
India in the longer term
To speed up the process of CDM in India and to encourage different
stakeholders, GoI may introduce a concept of “CARBON RESERVE”
by banking carbon reduced or sequestered in line with India’s gold
reserve and foreign exchange reserve as a part of India’s climate
change policy in the longer term.
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