Download Political Business Cycles (Nordhaus)

Literature
What other scholars have to offer
Alternative Methods
• It's always good to check the robustness!
Main Method
• Bread and Peace (Hibbs)
Alternatives
• Political Business Cycles (Nordhaus)
• Macroeconomy driven by elections
• Manipulation by policy tools to boost chances
• Endogenous election timing a function of economy
(Berument)
Alternatives
• Econometrics and Presidential Elections (Fair)
• Kramer: voter behavior depends on economy
• Republican/Democrat
• V= a1 + a2t + a3I+ a4DPER + a5g*I + a6p*I + u
Alternatives
• Time-for-Change Model (Abramowitz)
• A referendum on the incumbent's performance
• Robust results (2% margin for 2008)
• Noneconomic (political) and economic variables
Alternatives
• Economics and Elections in W. Europe (Chappel, Veiga)
• 13 countries 37 years
• Political responsibility + economic perception
Alternatives
• Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts (Erikson,
Wlezien)
• Hibbsian
Endogeneity/Exogeneity
• Surfing on the cycles
• Exogenous: create a cycle
• Endogenous: surf a cycle
• The effects of GDP Growth only
The End of Economic Voting?
• Check whether political responsibility is more
important through the other theories.
• Some alternatives (PBCs and OETs)
• Hibbs is generally accepted
• Challenges to robustness
• Political Implications