* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change 21
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate Change: The Security Impacts and Responses in the Short, medium and Long-Term Chow Kok Kee Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change 21 - 22 June 2007 Content Impacts of global warming and climate change Threats to short, medium and long term security Avoidance of catastrophe Conclusion Impacts on Water Resources In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives. Impacts on Ecosystem The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, overexploitation of resources) Impacts on Food Production Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable Impacts on Health •Increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development; • Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; Aggregate Impacts of Climate Change Climate change can be a source of multiple stresses, and it can interact with non-climate stresses (e.g. diseases, including HIV/AIDS, land degradation, economic globalisation and market change, unsustainable consumption and production patterns, and violent conflict). In these cases, there is very high confidence that total vulnerability is larger than the sum of the vulnerabilities to individual impacts. IPCC 2007 Natural disasters like floods, droughts, Effective interagency action may require new legislation and better definition of Department of Homeland Security authority. • Should global cooperative measures fail, the first impact will likely come from large numbers of displaced people who, by the very nature of their displacement, will become subject to malnutrition and disease; agricultural dislocation could aggravate or spark displacement and border security issues could arise as well. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: U.S. Army War College and NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS Triangle Institute for Compiled by Security Studies Dr. Douglas V. Johnson II Mar 29 2007 Strategic Studies Institute Natural disasters like floods, droughts, Finding 1: Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. Finding 2: Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. Finding 3: Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world. Finding 4: Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges. Natural disasters like floods, droughts, Recommendations 1: The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national defense strategies. 2: The U.S. should commit to a stronger national and international role to help stabilize climate changes at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security and stability 3: The U.S. should commit to global partnerships that help less developed nations build the capacity and resiliency to better manage climate impacts. Recommendations Natural disasters like floods, droughts, 4: The Department of Defense should enhance its operational capability by accelerating the adoption of improved business processes and innovative technologies that result in improved U.S. combat power through energy efficiency. Short term impacts up to 2020 Increased variabilities in water resource, food production, sea level rise and extreme weather events Local adaptation to climate change including conservation of water resource, new breeds, socioeconomic changes as well as local/provincial tensions Regional tensions and conflicts due to water sharing problems and energy security Intra-migration e.g. moving from coastal areas to higher ground, from degraded land to new locations and from arid areas to new places that have water resource In short term, outbreak of violence will unlikely be as strong as when natural resources can be exploited for quick financial reward. Climate change happens gradually. In short and medium terms, global warming is unlikely to be the primary cause of any particular armed conflict, nor will its contribution to conflict be particularly visible. Nevertheless, regional climate changes, as with other causes of environmental degradation, could make armed conflict more likely. Because of the increases of extreme weather events, refugees are vulnerable not only to the physical and socio-economic effects of disease, malnutrition, and loss of income, but they also can become personally insecure and subject to crime, violence, and broader militarized conflict. Natural disasters become wider security challenges when countries lack the capability or willingness to help affected populations Medium term impacts up to 2040 Tensions/conflicts on availabilities of water resource, food production and adverse impacts due to sea level rise and extreme weather events become acute with frequent disruptions of climate Military protections of resources prevail and regional conflicts on water resources and food production escalate Intra- national migration continues but poorest people will continue to bear the brunt of climate change worsening of poverty level Medium term impacts up to 2040 International migration become popular with many countries imposing strict immigration regulations to control migration. Forced but illegal migration continues to increase as millions of people displaced due climate change (particularly those from arid areas) have little choice of local adaptation. They may be forced to move to another country of continent Soaring grievance leads to instability Long term impacts beyond 2060 Continued global warming leads to irreversible and abrupt change in climate Intra-migration and adaptation continue, countries with low adaptative capabilities will face violence, wide spread famine and instabilities Large scale regional conflicts on water resources, food production, illegal migration and health New economic order may evolve as countries that lose their adaptative capabilites likely to lose political leaderships Response strategies in short term Natural disasters like floods, droughts, For developed countries Accelerate their reductions Increase provision of sufficient financial resources and transfer of technology Assist developing countries in adapting to climate change Promote joint R & D Stop using economic competitiveness as an excuse not to take action Response strategies in short term For developing countries Take climate change into consideration in all planning Initiate adaptation programmes particularly on food, water resources and socio-economic development Avoid “locking-in” in technology Formulate policies and measures that lower greenhouse gas emissions Make preparation for inter-provincial migration Response strategies in short term For all countries Systematic observations and research Confidence building among countries Promote integrated global cooperation and avoid parallel initiatives Regional consultation on water sharing Food sharing programme MalStar 18 June 2007 World News UN: Climate change behind Darfur massacre UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said that the slaughter in Darfur was triggered by global climate change and that more such conflicts may be on the horizon. "The Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change," Ban said in a Washington Post opinion column. Response strategies in medium and long terms For all countries •Global reduction of greenhouse gases with participation of all countries to achieve sustainable development •Accelerate adaptation programme through provision of resources and technology •Better access to medical assistance, particularly for the least developed countries •Intra- and inter-national conflict resolution on water resources, migration, displaced people and refugees •Emergence of new breed of leadership Conclusions More scientific evidence available in confirming anthropogenic emission of GHG has resulted global warming and climate change Climate change will lead to increase of sea level, increase in storm related disasters as well as impacts on food protection, water resources and health Multiple stresses will lead to intra- and inter-national conflicts on food, water resources and displaced people All countries are to participate actively in mitigation and adaptation programmes Intra- inter-national security forces migration, food security Conclusions •All countries must sincerely work together to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change •All countries move towards low carbon economy •Make early preparation for regional and international arrangement for people affected by climate change e.g. displaced people, illegal immigrants, vector disease spread •Avoidance of conflicts due to unequal production and distribution of resources, e.g. food production, water resources