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Transcript
They are all connected
Related issues
 > 62% of ESS are degraded
 No fish by 2048
 Lose ~€50Bn ESS =>
€14trn/yr by 2050
 1/3 land degraded: impacts
1.2Bn people in 100
countries
 1.8Bn people absolute water
scarcity
 Invasive species >$1.4trn –
5% global GDP
Disasters
• weather related disasters
doubled in 10 years
• due to increased severe
weather, floods, storms
• increase mainly &
medium-scale ‘forgotten’
disasters
• geophysical disasters
unchanged
Water stress - impact
• 700M in water scarcity
• 900M no safe drinking water
• many more in water stressed
countries. The poor are most
vulnerable
• there is enough water for
domestic, agriculture & industry.
Many excluded by poverty, legal
rights or public policies
Water stress - projections
• 50% of countries in water stress
by 2025
• 75% of people by 2050
• increased flooding & drought
• impacts on water supply, floods,
health, agriculture, energy &
aquatic ecosystems
Water stress - responses
• build institutional capacity
• implementation of water laws and
policies
• transparent governance
• cooperation among government
agencies
• involve stakeholders &
communities
• decentralised approaches
• community-based adaptation
Food insecurity – impact
• 1Bn undernourished; the number
one health risk
• 275,000 people become
chronically hungry every day
• 29 countries alarming/ extremely
alarming levels of hunger
• 30% of people in Africa have
chronic hunger & malnutrition
• 25% are children
• 60% are women
• 75% poor agricultural livelihoods
Food insecurity causes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
not food shortage
global wheat prices rose 181% 2005-7
global food prices increased by 83%
60-80% developing country hh spending on
food
development regressed 7 years
100m more people in food insecurity
30-50% further rises predicted
75% attribution to biofuels
poor distribution, poverty, instability, poor
governance, poor market acces, no voice
single crops, rain dependence, HIV, conflict,
unemployment, under investment; poor
social protection
northern agricultural subsidies, trade
liberalisation, rising energy prices and
increasing consumption
Emergency or chronic?
• 51 food crises between 2004 and
2008
• 23 countries in 2007 or 2008; 23
countries in 2000 and 2001
• Treated as unexpected disasters =
humanitarian relief
• Response too late to save assets &
livelihoods
• Emergencies cause less than 8% of
hunger's victims, but temporary
shocks have higher visibility
• A child dies every 5 seconds
Climate change impacts on food
• undernourished people rising to 40-170m
people
• staple crops not viable in S Asia, S & subsaharan Africa
• >50% reduction yield across many African
countries
• global food price rise
• loss of fisheries
• Increased floods, droughts, storms, pests
& diseases
• $11-13bn adaptation by 2030
Food security - responses
• predictable cash or food
transfers
• pre-position resources
• food aid & longer-term social
protection
• source food from local markets
to avoid market distortions
• improve early warning systems
• improve governance, access,
distribution
• address biofuels
Environmental degradation
• virtually all Earth’s ecosystems
significantly transformed
• 24% of land converted to agriculture
• 3-6 times water held behind dams than
natural rivers
• >35% of mangroves lost
• >40% of coral reefs dead or dying
• 70% of temperate forests and
grasslands lost
• 60% of ecosystem services
unsustainably used: water, fisheries,
air, climate, pests
• hitting the poor hardest
Climate change
• IPCC: Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice
and rising global average
• sea level, increased storm and severe
weather events.
• Impacts on health, food, water,
disasters, livelihoods, infrastructure,
economies, conflict
Linkages
Examples
of hazards
Linkages
Examples of
environmental
& geophysical
impacts
Linkages
Examples of
environmental
& geophysical
responses