Download C. Heying presentation

Utah Climate Change Blue Ribbon Advisory Council
and the Western Climate Initiative
Presentation to WESTAR April 2008
Cheryl Heying Utah Division of Air Quality
Governor’s Climate Change
Blue Ribbon Advisory Council (BRAC)
Commissioned in August 2006
Began an aggressive series of meetings in December
2006
– 60+ meetings
Included representatives from:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Utilities
Business groups
Agricultural community
Municipal governments
Environmental groups
Clean energy advocates
Mining interests
Others
Governor’s charge:
Climate science report
– Mainstream scientific thinking
– Impacts to the intermountain west
Policy recommendations to reduce GHG
emissions:
– Administrative actions
– Legislative actions
– Consumer and industry actions
Science Report
Sources to be limited to peer reviewed
scientific publications
Current evidence of climate change, what
is known and generally agreed to/where is
the greatest uncertainty and evidence is
disputed
Climate models and projections about
future climate change
Specific impacts of climate change on
Utah and the West
Science Report: Major Findings
No longer any scientific doubt that the Earth’s average
surface temperature is increasing
Very high confidence that human-generated increases in
GHG concentrations are responsible for most of the
global warming observed over the past 50 years
Likely that increases in GHG concentrations are
contributing to several significant climate trends that
have been observed over most of the western United
States during the past 50 years
Ongoing GHG emissions at or above current levels will
further alter the Earth’s climate and very likely produce
global temperature, sea level, and snow and ice changes
greater than those observed during the 20th century
Science Report: Utah Impacts
Average temperature during the past decade was higher
than observed during any comparable period of the past
century and roughly 2°F higher than the 100 year
average
Utah is projected to warm more than the average for the
entire globe resulting in:
– Fewer frost days
– Longer growing seasons
– More heat waves
Ongoing GHG emissions at or above current levels will
likely result in decline in Utah’s mountain snowpack
Threat of severe and prolonged episodic drought in Utah
is real
2000 GHG Emissions: Utah vs. U.S.
Utah
Transport
24%
Res/Com
Fuel Use
8%
Industrial
Fuel Use
16%
Fossil Fuel
Ind.
5%
Industrial
Process
4%
Waste
3%
Agric.
6%
Electricity
(in-state)
34%
US
Transport
26%
Res/Com
Fuel Use
9%
Industrial
Process
5%
Waste
4%
Agric.
7%
Industrial
Fuel Use
14%
Fossil
Fuel Ind.
(CH4) 3%
Electricity
32%
Utah Gross GHG Emissions: 1990-2020
Electricity - in-state
Transport Gasoline Use
Agriculture
Waste Management
Fossil Fuel Industry
Transport Diesel Use
ODS Substitutes
RCI Fuel Use
Jet Fuel/Other Transport
Other Ind. Process
100
MMtCO2e
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Utah GHG Emissions and Sinks
(Million Metric Tons CO2e)
1990
2000
2005
2010
2020
Total Gross Emissions
49.3
65.6
68.8
75.6
96.1
54%
95%
increase relative to 1990
34%
40%
Forestry and Land Use
-12.3
-12.3
-12.3
-12.3
-12.3
Agricultural Soils
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
Net Emissions (including sinks)
37.0
53.6
56.5
63.4
83.8
Gross GHG emissions:
– 68.8 MMtCO2e in 2005 (approximately of U.S. gross emissions)
Potential GHG sinks:
– Forestry sinks offset approximately 18% of 2005 emissions
– Agriculture sinks offset approximately 1% of 2005 emissions
– However, high uncertainty about sinks
Policy Options: Examples
Energy Supply
– Carbon capture and sequestration research and development
– Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS)
Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI)
– Enhanced demand side management (DSM)
– Improved building codes
Transportation/Land Use
– GHG tailpipe standards/clean car program
– Enhanced mass transit
Agriculture/Forestry
– Promote production of biomass fuels
– Preserve forest and agriculture lands
Cross-Cutting
– GHG registry
– State GHG targets/goals
– Regional cap and trade program
TL-8
RCI-4
RCI-14
AF-9
AF-7
AF-6
AF-15
RCI-2
TL-11
RCI-11
RCI-5
TL-10
RCI-8
RCI-19
AF-2
TL-7
RCI-7
ES-E
RCI-6
TL-6
TL-1
4.00%
RCI-20
5.00%
RCI-21
TL-2
AF-1
AF-12
RCI-23
ES-D
ES-B
RCI-1
ES-A
TL-9
% of total gross emissions
Emissions Reductions Estimates by
Policy Option
6.00%
Clean Car Program
Renewable Energy PFS
Utility Demand Side Management
Carbon Sequestration
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
Estimated Cost of Emissions
Reductions by Policy Option
80
Clean car program
Appliance efficiency
standards
Expand biomass energy
60
40
20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
AF-6
RCI-7
TL-11
ES-B
ES-D
AF-7
ES-E
ES-A
RCI-4
AF-2
AF-1
TL-6
TL-14
TL-8
TL-2
TL-1
TL-7
RCI-6
RCI-11
RCI-20
TL-10
RCI-1
RCI-5
AF-15
RCI-21
-20
RCI-8
TL-9
$/CO2e
0
Preserve open space
BRAC Status:
Completed report in October 2007
72 policy options for reducing GHG
emissions
Recommended additional analysis to
assess GHG reduction potential and costs
of each policy option
– Initial estimates from a review of findings in
other states
– We want Utah-specific estimates
– Contracted with Duke University Nicholas
Institute for further research
Western Climate Initiative (WCI)
Began in February 2007; Utah joined in May
Includes AZ, CA, MT, NM, OR, UT, WA; British
Columbia and Manitoba
Major components:
–
–
–
–
The Climate Registry (GHG emissions registry)
Market-based GHG reduction mechanism
GHG tailpipe standards
GHG emissions reduction goals
Utah: To be set in June 2008 based upon findings from Duke
research of BRAC policy options
Emissions Goals
Emissions goals vary by state
Some states set goals by Executive Order or
legislation
Utah will use a “bottom up” approach based
upon analysis of BRAC recommendations
Utah Process for Goals
Working from the bottom up in partnership
with our stakeholders
Based on Utah-specific information
Many of the policy options we’re
considering have important air quality and
cost saving co-benefits
Working with other agencies – This is not
just DAQ.
How Will We Reach Our Goals
Legislative i.e. Renewable Portfolio
Standards, tax incentives, etc
Administrative Actions, i.e. Executive
Order establishing Energy Efficiencies
Consumer and Industry Participation
WCI
Federal Action?
Resource Impacts
Staff
Travel
New Territory – Have experience in
regulating sources of air pollution.
Learning new language, working with folks
we haven’t before.
Time lines are VERY ambitious!
For more information:
Email:
[email protected]
Website:
www.climatechange.utah.gov
Questions?