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Utah Climate Change Blue Ribbon Advisory Council and the Western Climate Initiative Presentation to WESTAR April 2008 Cheryl Heying Utah Division of Air Quality Governor’s Climate Change Blue Ribbon Advisory Council (BRAC) Commissioned in August 2006 Began an aggressive series of meetings in December 2006 – 60+ meetings Included representatives from: – – – – – – – – Utilities Business groups Agricultural community Municipal governments Environmental groups Clean energy advocates Mining interests Others Governor’s charge: Climate science report – Mainstream scientific thinking – Impacts to the intermountain west Policy recommendations to reduce GHG emissions: – Administrative actions – Legislative actions – Consumer and industry actions Science Report Sources to be limited to peer reviewed scientific publications Current evidence of climate change, what is known and generally agreed to/where is the greatest uncertainty and evidence is disputed Climate models and projections about future climate change Specific impacts of climate change on Utah and the West Science Report: Major Findings No longer any scientific doubt that the Earth’s average surface temperature is increasing Very high confidence that human-generated increases in GHG concentrations are responsible for most of the global warming observed over the past 50 years Likely that increases in GHG concentrations are contributing to several significant climate trends that have been observed over most of the western United States during the past 50 years Ongoing GHG emissions at or above current levels will further alter the Earth’s climate and very likely produce global temperature, sea level, and snow and ice changes greater than those observed during the 20th century Science Report: Utah Impacts Average temperature during the past decade was higher than observed during any comparable period of the past century and roughly 2°F higher than the 100 year average Utah is projected to warm more than the average for the entire globe resulting in: – Fewer frost days – Longer growing seasons – More heat waves Ongoing GHG emissions at or above current levels will likely result in decline in Utah’s mountain snowpack Threat of severe and prolonged episodic drought in Utah is real 2000 GHG Emissions: Utah vs. U.S. Utah Transport 24% Res/Com Fuel Use 8% Industrial Fuel Use 16% Fossil Fuel Ind. 5% Industrial Process 4% Waste 3% Agric. 6% Electricity (in-state) 34% US Transport 26% Res/Com Fuel Use 9% Industrial Process 5% Waste 4% Agric. 7% Industrial Fuel Use 14% Fossil Fuel Ind. (CH4) 3% Electricity 32% Utah Gross GHG Emissions: 1990-2020 Electricity - in-state Transport Gasoline Use Agriculture Waste Management Fossil Fuel Industry Transport Diesel Use ODS Substitutes RCI Fuel Use Jet Fuel/Other Transport Other Ind. Process 100 MMtCO2e 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Utah GHG Emissions and Sinks (Million Metric Tons CO2e) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 Total Gross Emissions 49.3 65.6 68.8 75.6 96.1 54% 95% increase relative to 1990 34% 40% Forestry and Land Use -12.3 -12.3 -12.3 -12.3 -12.3 Agricultural Soils -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Net Emissions (including sinks) 37.0 53.6 56.5 63.4 83.8 Gross GHG emissions: – 68.8 MMtCO2e in 2005 (approximately of U.S. gross emissions) Potential GHG sinks: – Forestry sinks offset approximately 18% of 2005 emissions – Agriculture sinks offset approximately 1% of 2005 emissions – However, high uncertainty about sinks Policy Options: Examples Energy Supply – Carbon capture and sequestration research and development – Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI) – Enhanced demand side management (DSM) – Improved building codes Transportation/Land Use – GHG tailpipe standards/clean car program – Enhanced mass transit Agriculture/Forestry – Promote production of biomass fuels – Preserve forest and agriculture lands Cross-Cutting – GHG registry – State GHG targets/goals – Regional cap and trade program TL-8 RCI-4 RCI-14 AF-9 AF-7 AF-6 AF-15 RCI-2 TL-11 RCI-11 RCI-5 TL-10 RCI-8 RCI-19 AF-2 TL-7 RCI-7 ES-E RCI-6 TL-6 TL-1 4.00% RCI-20 5.00% RCI-21 TL-2 AF-1 AF-12 RCI-23 ES-D ES-B RCI-1 ES-A TL-9 % of total gross emissions Emissions Reductions Estimates by Policy Option 6.00% Clean Car Program Renewable Energy PFS Utility Demand Side Management Carbon Sequestration 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Estimated Cost of Emissions Reductions by Policy Option 80 Clean car program Appliance efficiency standards Expand biomass energy 60 40 20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 AF-6 RCI-7 TL-11 ES-B ES-D AF-7 ES-E ES-A RCI-4 AF-2 AF-1 TL-6 TL-14 TL-8 TL-2 TL-1 TL-7 RCI-6 RCI-11 RCI-20 TL-10 RCI-1 RCI-5 AF-15 RCI-21 -20 RCI-8 TL-9 $/CO2e 0 Preserve open space BRAC Status: Completed report in October 2007 72 policy options for reducing GHG emissions Recommended additional analysis to assess GHG reduction potential and costs of each policy option – Initial estimates from a review of findings in other states – We want Utah-specific estimates – Contracted with Duke University Nicholas Institute for further research Western Climate Initiative (WCI) Began in February 2007; Utah joined in May Includes AZ, CA, MT, NM, OR, UT, WA; British Columbia and Manitoba Major components: – – – – The Climate Registry (GHG emissions registry) Market-based GHG reduction mechanism GHG tailpipe standards GHG emissions reduction goals Utah: To be set in June 2008 based upon findings from Duke research of BRAC policy options Emissions Goals Emissions goals vary by state Some states set goals by Executive Order or legislation Utah will use a “bottom up” approach based upon analysis of BRAC recommendations Utah Process for Goals Working from the bottom up in partnership with our stakeholders Based on Utah-specific information Many of the policy options we’re considering have important air quality and cost saving co-benefits Working with other agencies – This is not just DAQ. How Will We Reach Our Goals Legislative i.e. Renewable Portfolio Standards, tax incentives, etc Administrative Actions, i.e. Executive Order establishing Energy Efficiencies Consumer and Industry Participation WCI Federal Action? Resource Impacts Staff Travel New Territory – Have experience in regulating sources of air pollution. Learning new language, working with folks we haven’t before. Time lines are VERY ambitious! For more information: Email: [email protected] Website: www.climatechange.utah.gov Questions?