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The Climate/Human Interface Tim Killeen Director National Center for Atmospheric Research The Santa Fe Institute May 8, 2004 "Why does applied science bring us so little happiness? The simple answer is that we have not yet learned to make proper use of it. In time of war it has given men the means to poison and mutilate one another. In time of peace it has made our lives hurried and uncertain. It has enslaved us to machines. The chief objective of all technological effort must be concern for mankind. Never forget this when you are pondering over your diagrams and equations!" Einstein to Students, 1931. Key finding of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Humans are affecting Earth’s climate “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN (‘ANTHROPOGENIC’) FACTORS Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, etc.) Sulfur dioxide and other aerosol precursors NATURAL FACTORS External forcing (solar, volcanoes, etc.) Internally-generated variability Climate Reconstructions : Past Millennium - millennial climate trend - centennial and multi-decadal variability: External Drivers? Medieval Warmperiod Recent Warming Little Ice Age Mann et al. 2003 Community Climate System Model CCSM June, 2003 Workshop in Breckenridge: >350 participants, >30 universities, >50 institutions 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2000 1996 1993 The Community Climate System Model: Past, Present and Future Development on CSM Begins First Coupled Simulation: No Flux Corrections Needed Formation of Working Groups CSM Special Issue Ocean Model Land Model CSM changes to Community Property Released to Community Interactive Aerosols Coupled Carbon/Nitrogen Coupled Chemistry Glacial Model IPCC AR4 20th Century Experiments Forcings: Combined Natural-Anthropogenic and Natural only Simulation of Recent Climate Community Climate System Model Paleoclimate Version A significant first for the CCSM – realistic simulation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The figure shows Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies of precipitation (mm/day), sea level pressure (mb), sea surface temp (C) and ocean temp (C) for a composite of 13 El Niño events in the CCSM. Support CRIEPI/NCAR/LANL/Kyushu Consortium supported by Kyosei Project “Sustainable Coexistence of Humans, Nature and the Earth” Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of the Uncertainty in Emissions SRES DECADAL FOSSIL-FUEL CO2 EMISSIONS 40 35 A1 - RED B1 - BLACK A2 - GREEN B2 - BLUE FOSSIL CO2 EMISSIONS (GtC/yr) MEAN - MAGENTA 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 PDF FOR CO2 CONCENTRATION IN 2100 : SRES SCENARIOS 0.0025 5% 95% 50% PROBABILITY DENSITY (ppm**-1) 0.002 0.0015 0.001 0.0005 0 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 CO2 CONCENTRATION (ppm) PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE GLOBAL-MEAN WARMING (from Wigley & Raper, Science 293, 451-454, 2001) UNCERTAINTIES ACCOUNTED FOR: (1) Emissions (2) Climate Sensitivity (3) Aerosol forcing (4) Ocean mixing rate (5) Carbon cycle 1.8 PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING 1990-2030 1.4 o -1 PROBABILITY DENSITY (( C) ) 1.6 1.2 1 0.8 1990-2070 0.6 0.4 1990-2100 0.2 0 TAR RANGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 o 7 GLOBAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 1990 ( C) Modeling the Entire EarthClimate system Human Activities Biogeochemical Cycles Biosphere Climate Processes Atmospheric Chemistry Gases, aerosols •Temperature •Winds •Clouds, Precipitation Ocean Processes • Computational resources approaching the ability to model the entire Earth system • Many individual processes still uncertain Minutes-To-Hours Components Of Terrestrial Biogeoscience Chemistry Temperature, Precipitation, Radiation, Humidity, Wind CO2, CH4, N2O ozone, aerosols CO2 CH4 N2O VOCs Dust Heat Moisture Momentum Biogeochemistry Aerodynamics Water Energy Biogeophysics Carbon Assimilation Decomposition Mineralization Microclimate Canopy Physiology Days-To-Weeks Years-To-Centuries Climate Phenology Intercepted Water Snow Soil Water Hydrology Leaf Senescence Species Composition Ecosystem Structure Nutrient Availability Water Evaporation Transpiration Snow Melt Infiltration Runoff Gordon Bonan Bud Break Gross Primary Production Plant Respiration Microbial Respiration Nutrient Availability Watersheds Ecosystems Surface Water Subsurface Water Geomorphology Hydrologic Cycle Species Composition Ecosystem Structure Vegetation Dynamics Disturbance Fires Hurricanes Ice Storms Windthrows Earth System Modeling Preliminary focus on carbon and nitrogen cycle modeling across spatial scales, and interactions of these cycles with the climate system. The Global C Cycle The Global N Cycle Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric N species Legend Vegetation Biomass C flux N flux Temp sensitivity Soil Organic Matter Coupled Carbon-Nitrogen dynamics • Strong feedback between decomposition and plant growth: soil mineral N is the primary source of N for plant growth. • Can result in a shift from C source to C sink under warming. Carbon Sink/Source response to +1° C step change sink (temperate deciduous broadleaf forest) Coupled C-N model C-only model Thornton, in prep. Simulated Leaf Area Index for Evergreen Needleleaf Forest, NW U.S. Peter Thornton: 70 hours threaded code CCSM Climate “Forecasts” Produced by Gary Strand, NCAR Cosquer Cave 18,000-27,000 years ago Dramatic proof of profound climate change, sea level change - and human adaptation Our Generation Some Interdisciplinary Opportunities and Thoughts Earth Systems – Observing and Modeling Regional Modeling of the Future Decision Tools Understanding Abrupt Climate Change Beyond Kyoto and IPCC: A 2050 Project? Some New NCAR Scientists I Unused slides follow Three Interleaved Grand Challenges "Getting to" the needed Coupled models of the Earth System (GEO) "Finding out how to get there" (Computer Science and ITR) "Training the workforce" to enable appropriate expertise and responses (EHR, GEO, CISE, etc.) Extreme droughts are the ‘norm’ Palmer Drought Severity Index GYE PDSI reconstruction 8 20 yr moving average 20th C average 4 0 -4 Lisa Graumlich -8 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 CCSM Time Line for IPCC Comparison CSM with different Paleoclimate Reconstructions: Only clear difference is to Mann et al. (1999), which is warmer ~1450-1720 Jones et al. (1998): is mostly summer season. Difference: < 0.1 C Crowley & Lowery (1999): Only 11-year average. Difference: very small Briffa et al. (2001): exclusively tree-rings, but with low-freq. retention: somewhat warmer 1400-1500. Huang et al. 2000: Subsurface (borehole) temperatures: ~1 C: Estimates of Total Anthropogenic Forcing Kiehl et al., JGR 2000 Aerosol Forcing during INDOEX Collins et al., JGR submitted Pinatubo unknown Kuwae Huaynaputina Parker Tambora unknown Krakatau