Download What Local Communities in Bangladesh told us about Climate Change

What Local
Communities in
Bangladesh told us
about Climate Change
Ainun Nishat
IUCN Bangladesh Country Office
Is Climate Change real …..?
• IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably
changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial
era. The just-released IPCC-FAR(2007), confirms that Climate
change is due to increase in concentration of GHGs.
• Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer
earliest and most’.
• Carbon dioxide concentrations, globally averaged surface
temperature, and sea level are projected to increase under all IPCC
emissions scenarios during the 21st Century.
• CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial
revolution to about 380 ppm now. It may reach 800+ ppm by end
of this century.
• Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable
situation is not likely to be achieved soon.
Some Definitions……
Climate Change: any change in climate over time.
Climate variability: variations in the mean state
and other statistics (such as occurrence of
extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and
spatial scales.
Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing
environment..
Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.
Likely Impacts
The globally averaged surface temperature is
projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 ºC over the period
1990 to 2100. Scientists worry as they can not predict
as to what will happen if it goes above 2 ºC.
Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to
0.88 m between the years 1990 and 2100.
Globally averaged annual precipitation is projected to
increase during the 21st Century.
Glaciers and ice caps are projected to continue their
widespread retreat during the 21st Century. Dry
season flows of river will shrink in future.
Likely Impacts…..
Dry seasons will have less rainfall. There will be an
increase in irrigation water demand unless offset by
diversification with dry-foot crops.
There will be erratic behavior of weather.
Forests will be affected as climate changes and plants
will need time to adjust.
Flora and fauna and their inter-relationship will be in
jeopardy. Many species will disappear, many will face
problems in surviving.
Drought tolerant, saline tolerant and submergence
tolerant varieties of crops will be required to cope.
Likely Impacts ……
 Vulnerability to both flood and drought will increase.
 River flooding may increase in duration. Flash flooding
will be more frequent. Short duration rainfalls may
create drainage congestions specially in urban areas.
 A sea level rise of 0.5m by 2050 will cause low lying
coastal areas to go under water. Small island states may
disappear. It will also exacerbate drainage congestion in
the coastal plains.
 Frequency of tropical cyclones will increase. Storm
surge depths will increase.
General comments
Output from a total of eleven local level consultations
held between 2003-06 are summerized. Seven
consultations were held (2003-2004) as part of “Water
and Climate Change” project; and four were organised
between 2005-2006 as part of NAPA process. Locations
covered all major physiological and ecological regions.
Consultations with local communities was very
rewarding as rich ideas were extracted from them.
Local communities demonstrated clear understanding
vis-a-vis the various adverse impacts of climate change
that are being predicted by professionals and experts
though they were not aware of sciences behind the
impacts.
Approach of local level consultations
• Capture the ideas of people at grassroots level.
• Identify location specific problem as well as user specific
problem.
• Create awareness among the people at local level
• Through group work:
– Assessment of present status biodiversity indicators– once was there and
now not seen.
– Causes of loss and threats
– What should be done now
– Prioritization of issues
• All groups looked into issues related to:
– Species conservation, ecosystem management, legal and regulatory
issues, education and awareness raising, and institutional issues
– Issues were identified, actions were recommended.
NBSAP
Regional Workshops held in
Chittagong
Khulna
Jhalokathi
Tangail
Thakurgaon
Moulvibazar
Indicators Of Climate Variability As Identified By
Stakeholders At Water And Climate Change Dialogue
Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and irregular heavy
rain,
Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of cyclonic
conditions, variation in tidal flow
Increase in frequency of flash flood,
Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle, cloudy and
cold winter,
increase in droughts and dry spells,
Storms and hailstorms,,
Increased surface temperature,
Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.
Vulnerabilities
Climate and Related
Elements
Critical Vulnerable Areas
Most Impacted Sectors
Temperature rise and
drought
• North-west
• Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries)
• Water
• Energy
• Health
Sea Level Rise and Salinity
Intrusion
• Coastal Area
• Islands
• Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)
• Water (water logging, drinking water, urban)
• Human settlement
• Energy
• Health
Floods
• Central Region
• North East Region
• Char land
• Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)
• Water (urban, industry)
• Infrastructure
• Human settlement
• Health
• Disaster
• Energy
Cyclone and Storm Surge
• Coastal and Marine Zone
• Marine Fishing
• Infrastructure
• Human settlement
• Life and property
Drainage congestion
• Coastal Area
• Urban
• South West
• Water
• Agriculture (crop)
Vulnerabilities
Physical Vulnerability Context
Extreme
Tempera
ture
Sea Level Rise
Drought
Flood
Cyclone
and
Storm
Surges
Erosion
Sectoral
Vulnerability
Context
River
Flood
Flash
Flood
+++
+++
++
+++
-
Crop Agriculture
+
++
++
+
+
-
Fisheries
++
+++
+
+
+
+++
-
Livestock
+
++
-
-
++
+
+
+++
++
+++
++
-
++
+
++
-
Industries
+++
+++
+++
+
++
+
+
-
Biodiversity
+++
+
+++
++
++
-
++
-
Health
-
-
-
-
+
+
+++
+++
++
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
Coastal
Inundation
Salinity
Intrusion
+++
++
+++
++
+
++
Infrastructure
Human
Settlement
Energy
ADAPTATAION TO CHANGES IN
SEASONAL CYCLE
• Information and technology about photoneutral varieties of crops should be available.
• Forecast about seasonal variation and also
forecast on storm, hail storms, flood etc. at
the beginning of the each crop season.
ADAPTATAION TO FLOODS
• Disaster management training at local level
• Flood management infra-structures be
constructed and effectively maintained.
• People be encouraged to adopt with alternative
professions and they should be given skill
development training.
• Health related information should be provided
and improved health services. Mobile medical
service should be available. Special health
services for newborn and pregnant mothers
should be ensured.
ADAPTATAION TO
INCREASE IN DROUGHT
• Support should be available for excavation
and re-excavation of canals and water
bodies.
• Afforestation and plant protection program
should be enhanced.
• Major irrigation program should be
initiated.
ADAPTATAION TO INCREASED
SALINITY
• To stop intrusion of the tidal water, height and width
of embankment be increased;
• Ensure natural flow river.
• There should be a good drainage system in the area.
• HYV Salinity tolerant varieties of rice be developed.
• Traditional/indigenous saline tolerant varieties of
crop should be restored and introduced widely.
ADAPTATAION TO STORM
SURGES AND CYCLONES
• Local voluntary organizations should be
strengthened
• Coastal afforestation program should be
strengthened. The Sundarbans should be
preserved and protected. Creation of reserved
forest be encouraged.
• More cyclone shelter should be constructed.
• Arrangement of proper and accurate weather
forecast. Special arrangement should be taken
to disseminate weather information.
ADAPTATAION TO SEA
LEVEL RISE
• All existing coastal polders be raised
and repaired; new polders to be
constructed in unprotected areas.
• Legal initiatives should be taken to
protect embankment.
• Sufficient measures to be taken to
improve internal drainage.
Further Recommendations …….
• Farmers require short period vegetable seeds.
• Innovation of hill friendly seeds that require no
ploughing.
• Innovation of drought resistant variety of wheat
and rice.
• Innovation of salinity and flood resistant variety of
rice.
• Research needed to innovate photo-neutral variety
of vegetables and rice.
• Adaptation strategies should be based on local
knowledge and local participation.
Summing up
• Local
consultation have raised expectation
among the communities and they now look for
activities leading to implementation of their
recommendations.
• Effective involvement of local communities will
ensure successful implementation of various
Action Plans.
• Indigenous knowledge need to be adopted in
conserving biodiversity, fighting desertification
and adapting to climate change and climate
variability.