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Global Warming: It’s Later Than We Think…But It’s Not Too Late Anthony J. Broccoli Director, Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Environmental Sciences Rutgers University Pulse of the Planet Lecture Series Liberty Science Center, Jersey City, NJ January 26, 2008 Temperatures in the New York City area in the past 30 days have been: a) more than 2°F below normal b) within 1°F of normal c) about 3°F above normal d) more than 6°F above normal Temperatures in the New York City area in the past 30 days have been: a) more than 2°F below normal b) within 1°F of normal c) about 3°F above normal d) more than 6°F above normal Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.” Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” Climate Change 1995 – The Second Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.” Climate Change 2000 – The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” Climate Change 2007 – The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC The IPCC’s conclusion that the observed warming is very likely due to increasing greenhouse gases an that further warming is on the way is based on: a) laboratory measurements b) results from computer models c) climate observations d) all of the above The IPCC’s conclusion that the observed warming is very likely due to increasing greenhouse gases an that further warming is on the way is based on: a) laboratory measurements b) results from computer models c) climate observations d) all of the above What Are Climate Models? “It is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past fifty years can be explained without external forcing.” Blue: Natural Pink: Natural + Human-induced Projections of Future Climate Variations among colored lines represents uncertainty due to uncertainty in future emissions. Simulating Future Climate Change Source: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Potential Climate Change Impacts Global Impacts of Climate Change Report by IPCC Working Group II on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability was released on 6 April 2007. Some of the highlights from this report: • There will be some winners, but more losers • Densely populated coastal regions will face increased pressures from sea level rise and more extreme weather • Poor communities and stressed ecosystems will suffer most, as they are already living “on the edge” • 60% of world’s species are already responding to change Global Impacts of Climate Change Report by IPCC Working Group II on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability was released on 6 April 2007. Some of the highlights from this report: • There will be some winners, but more losers • Densely populated coastal regions will face increased pressures from sea level rise and more extreme weather • Poor communities and stressed ecosystems will suffer most, as they are already living “on the edge” • 60% of world’s species are already responding to change Sea Level Trends in New Jersey Atlantic City, NJ Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NJ sea level rise 0.4 m/century = global sea level rise + other effects = 0.16 m/century + 0.24 m/century Why is global sea level rising? a) the density of the ocean is decreasing b) sea ice is melting rapidly c) mountain glaciers are melting d) the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting Why is global sea level rising? a) the density of the ocean is decreasing b) sea ice is melting rapidly c) mountain glaciers are melting d) the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? • Thermal expansion Warmer water is less dense than colder water. • Melting of glaciers and ice caps Water released by the melting of ice on land adds to the volume of the oceans. • Melting and calving of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Depends on the ice sheet dynamics (how the ice flows). Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? • Thermal expansion Warmer water is less dense than colder water. • Melting of glaciers and ice caps Water released by the melting of ice on land adds to the volume of the oceans. • Melting and calving of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Depends on the ice sheet dynamics (how the ice flows). Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? • Thermal expansion Warmer water is less dense than colder water. • Melting of glaciers and ice caps Water released by the melting of ice on land adds to the volume of the oceans. • Melting and calving of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Depends on ice sheet dynamics (how the ice flows). Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Environment Land area susceptible to inundation Land area susceptible to coastal flooding (“30-yr flood”) 0.61 m (2 ft) sea level rise by 2100—middle of the road estimate. 1.22 m (4 ft) sea level rise by 2100—more melting from Greenland/Antarctica Source: M. D. Beevers, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Workshop, Nov. 2005 “Ash Wednesday Storm” Harvey Cedars, March 1962 New Brunswick, April 16, 2007 John Munson/The Star-Ledger 3 of 7 largest floods since 2004 Flood Stage Warmer ↓ More Precipitation Warmer ↓ More Evaporation “…there is an increased chance of intense precipitation and flooding due to the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. This has already been observed and is projected to continue because in a warmer world, precipitation is concentrated into more intense events…” IPCC Fourth Assessment, 2007 New Brunswick, April 16, 2007 John Munson/The Star-Ledger days per year over 100ºF days per year over 90ºF IPCC: “It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.” Changes in number of days with heat waves from UCS Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Future Emissions Scenarios All scenarios show increasing emissions during next several decades Some scenarios show decreased emissions in latter half of 21st century Even with aggressive reductions in emissions, CO2 would rise to 2x preindustrial levels More Warming in the Pipeline Future emissions Additional “zero-emission” warming (aka “commitment”) Warming to date Psychological Barriers? • Climate change is not the result of malevolence. • Climate change does not violate our moral sensibilities (i.e., cultural taboos). • Climate change is perceived as a future rather than an immediate threat. • Climate change proceeds gradually. Source: Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University, Los Angeles Times, July 2006 What actions would you favor for reducing the threat of climate change? a) increase energy efficiency b) capture and sequester CO2 from fossil fuel burning c) increase nuclear power generation d) build more wind turbines and solar power systems What actions would you favor for reducing the threat of climate change? a) increase energy efficiency b) capture and sequester CO2 from fossil fuel burning c) increase nuclear power generation d) build more wind turbines and solar power systems “Wedges” Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 14 GtC/y Seven “wedges” Historical emissions 7 Flat path O 7 GtC/y 1.9 0 1956 2006 2056 Source: S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Princeton Univ. 2106 15 Different Technologies Already in the Marketplace at Industrial Scale Coal to Gas Natural Sinks CCS Nuclear Efficiency Renewables The Global Warming Dilemma (J. Mahlman, In Solutions for an Environment in Peril, 2002) “There are no quick policy fixes, nationally or globally. If we don't begin to chip away at the problem soon, it is very likely that serious consequences will be wired in for the world of our great-grandchildren and for their great-grandchildren.... The long time scales and robustness of the problem almost guarantees that our descendants in the 22nd century will, with historical perspective, see that we were actually confronted with a major planet-scale stewardship/ management problem. They will most assuredly note how we responded, or how we did not respond to the problem.” The climate is changing… Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps: Water released by the melting of ice on land adds to the volume of the oceans. Global Warming and the Hydrologic Cycle • The downward flux of radiative energy (i.e., sunlight and infrared radiation) at the surface is balanced by evaporation and sensible heating of the atmosphere. • If the downward flux of energy increases, then evaporation will increase. • On a global basis, evaporation and precipitation must balance. • Thus as the earth warms, both evaporation and precipitation will increase. Warmer ↓ More Precipitation Warmer ↓ More Evaporation Detection Attribution Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century (typically post 1960) Likelihood of a human contribution to observed trend Likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21st century using SRES scenarios Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land areas Very likely Likely Virtually certain Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas Very likely Likely (nights) Virtually certain Warm spells / heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas Likely More likely than not Very likely Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most areas Likely More likely than not Very likely Area affected by droughts increases Likely in many regions since 1970s More likely than not Likely Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Likely in some regions since 1970 More likely than not Likely Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis) Likely More likely than not Likely Phenomenon and direction of trend Projection Rahmstorf, Stefan, et al., 2007: Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science. Published online 2 February 2007, 10.1126/science.1136843 Dashed lines and gray shading are 2001 TAR projections. Colored lines are observations. While CO2 is increasing as projected, temperature is increasing a little more than all the scenarios. “Sea level closely follows the upper gray dashed line, the upper limit referred to by IPCC as ‘including landice uncertainty.’ Note that the rate of rise for the last 20 years of the reconstructed sea level is 25% faster than the rate of rise in any 20 year period in the preceding 115 years.” Global mean sea level changes Changes in Heat Index • • • The heat index combines the effects of temperature and humidity to estimate human comfort. Results are from simulations with three global climate models with two emissions scenarios, representing the low and high ends of the IPCC range. Under the high emissions scenario, Tri-State summers at the end of the 21st century are projected to be similar to those in Savannah, Georgia today. Simulated Changes in Precipitation Relative changes in precipitation (%) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change. Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events over most areas: Very likely More areas affected by drought: Likely